Coronavirus

[Doc]

Beshear urges church services to be cancelled due to corona. Large gatherings certainly offer a contagion rich environment.

I am unsettled by a political figure to urge church services to be put on hold. I get why. But what is next? elections?

I am concerned about that issue as it is. But I am very concerned with this.

I can see some issues with communion. I know at the church I grew up in communion was offered with small individual disposable plastic cups.

Granted someone had to prepare. I am concerned by the drinking from one cup. If my view is seen as disrespectful to anyone as to how they worship, my apologies.

Urging people to not attend church is as dire a request as I can imagine.

IMO there is a hugh amount of over reaction and fear mongering in general. Do the elderly need to be concerned and take extra precautions? Yes. Do the chronically ill or immune suppressed need to take extra precautions? Sure. But for the vast majority, no. I have no intention of changing my life because to me the risk is no greater than the flu. I have a far greater chance of contracting and dying from rabies than I do of COVID-19. I always look at any disease and risk manage. It is part of my job. I have many vaccines at hand but look at each patient uniquely and evaluate which are at risk for which disease. The public perception with coronavirus at this time is such that if you ars in the same room as anybody who has had contact with an infected individual you have a high probability of getting sick or dying. That simply is not the case

[ukpumacat]

IMO there is a hugh amount of over reaction and fear mongering in general. Do the elderly need to be concerned and take extra precautions? Yes. Do the chronically ill or immune suppressed need to take extra precautions? Sure. But for the vast majority, no. I have no intention of changing my life because to me the risk is no greater than the flu. I have a far greater chance of contracting and dying from rabies than I do of COVID-19. I always look at any disease and risk manage. It is part of my job. I have many vaccines at hand but look at each patient uniquely and evaluate which are at risk for which disease. The public perception with coronavirus at this time is such that if you ars in the same room as anybody who has had contact with an infected individual you have a high probability of getting sick or dying. That simply is not the case

This is not the concern. Nor have I seen anyone on the news saying anything close to this. The concern is that even people who will not die are carriers. This is highly contagious. If people do not change how they live, millions of those most vulnerable WILL die.

[kingcat]

Glad it's simple for you. I'll let you come up and explain to my employees why they can't eat and will lose their places to live. lol.

It's not simple b/c it's a matter of assessing and balancing risks. Under-react to this and we'll have more sick and dead, over-react and we'll inflict harm that yes directly makes people much worse off and even less healthy for no reason.

Some things are easier. God won't abandon anyone if we skip a few Sundays, and churches are likely to get donations enough to be OK. Easy enough.

But I like my Fayette Mall example. Do we close it? It's an obvious gathering spot for huge numbers of people, but it also employees huge numbers of people. is it fair to close Fayette mall but leave standalone stores open? Where do we draw that line?

Seattle just banned gatherings over 250. That seems high to me. But is a factory "a gathering"? Does Toyota shut down or just institute some kind of procedures?

There's no "obvious answer" here. Sure if you're sick you stay home, but do we cost millions of people their homes and jobs when they weren't sick at all?

I think you misunderstood me. Its not at all simple for me...I work and i live week to week. And I know there's no chance any of us would willingly sacrifice the life of a single American for economic gain or continuity.

The point we are discussing is if it has reached, or will reach that point.
Not about sacrificing lives imo.

[bigsky]

No, he's not.

I’m not insinuating anything. I’m saying people, from here on this board to Rusty Lintball , Are Saying It.

[dan_bgblue]

Covid 19 USA by the numbers

[ukpumacat]

I’m not insinuating anything. I’m saying people, from here on this board to Rusty Lintball , Are Saying It.

I know my friend.

[bigsky]

Thanks puma. Look at how fast this has moved since I asked on the basketball page whether the virus will affect anyone’s attendance! Tomorrow it will affect everyone’s.

[Doc]

This is not the concern. Nor have I seen anyone on the news saying anything close to this. The concern is that even people who will not die are carriers. This is highly contagious. If people do not change how they live, millions of those most vulnerable WILL die.

If you read what I posted you would see that I am talking about carriers.

So let me restate

"If you are in the same room as anybody who has had contact with an infected individual (that person you are in contact with could be a carrier, and they may or may not be sick) you have a high probability of getting sick or dying.

I am all in favor of those most vulnerable of taking extra precautions. Were I a senior citizen or an immune suppressed, I would not attend anything where there was a large congregation of people, nor would I travel to areas where it is an issue.

[ukpumacat]

This article right here is why a few of us keep saying that we are 2-3 weeks behind.
The way everyone is finally taking this serious is what we should have done weeks ago.
The top health official in Ohio believes 100,000 people have this in her state.
I saw one expert today say that they believe 1 million people will die from this.

If even tens of thousands of people die from this, it will be a stain this country has not seen in some time. And Donald Trump will never live down the quotes I have posted over and over again telling Americans this was shut down and downplaying its seriousness.
Once this gets personal for people, there will be hell to pay.
This is already personal for me. My mom listened to me and started self quarantining. But my step dad is a Fox News junkie and refused to. He kept repeating all the same lines. “It’s like the flu.” It’s the media. People are in a panic for no reason. Etc etc. So he kept going to the store. Going to his places. And very possible brought that home to my mom who will not make it through it.
Finally, I went to him and had to talk to him face to face. I have never once talked politics with him as it’s just not worth our relationship. And I told him Trump is lying. And that very soon he would be reversing course and realizing how serious this was. And that thousands in our area had this and simply didn’t know it. He listened. And promised to stay home.
Thats just one example close to my heart.
He wasn’t calm. He was lied to. And he’s not in a panic now. He’s just staying home.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/ohio-...-official-says

[Catonahottinroof]

That is absolute hyperbole. In the US as it stands now there are 5.5 cases per million of population. It will go up from that number certainly..however, Ohio would have 8600 cases per million to hit that number. Way to go Ohio....pumping the panic.....

The top health official in Ohio believes 100,000 people have this in her state.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/ohio-...-official-says

[Catfan73]

So far the number of confirmed cases in the US has doubled every two days. If this continues, in 14 days there will be 240,000 cases. Most people don’t start showing symptoms until 5 or 6 days after they’ve been infected, so we can logically assume that many of the 1,875 cases confirmed currently in the US weren’t showing symptoms just a few days ago. Now add up all those that are infected but yet to show symptoms along with those with symptoms mild enough to not think about getting tested and those that merely carry it while being asympomatic and it’s easy to see that the numbers are likely far greater than the reported confirmed cases.

[ukpumacat]

That is absolute hyperbole.

Ok.

[bigsky]

Yeah, when this thread started, and I was jokin and scoffin too, none of us were anywhere near all sports canceled and no travel from Europe and most schools closed. Me too. The other night when it all came down I was whiplashed! NBA conference tourneys Trump speech, stock market. You cant lowball this thing any more.

[Catonahottinroof]

The highest amount of cases per million of population is in Italy which is around 250 per million....China is at 180 or so per million.
Again...Ohio isn’t getting to 8600 per million.....

[TRUCKERCATFAN]

73 Trump
60 Pence
79 Pelosi
86 Grassley
56 Pompeo

Does this worry anyone else? Pence is probably okay as he’s only 60 but Trump, Pelosi, and Grassley need to be careful. Anyone remember King Ralph?

If alcohol kills the virus, Pelosi is safe.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[TRUCKERCATFAN]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Catfan73]

The highest amount of cases per million of population is in Italy which is around 250 per million....China is at 180 or so per million.
Again...Ohio isn’t getting to 8600 per million.....

Again...those are confirmed cases. The article puma linked was talking about undiagnosed cases.

[CitizenBBN]

This article right here is why a few of us keep saying that we are 2-3 weeks behind.
The way everyone is finally taking this serious is what we should have done weeks ago.
The top health official in Ohio believes 100,000 people have this in her state.
I saw one expert today say that they believe 1 million people will die from this.

So there are almost as many cases in Ohio than the reported cases currently worldwide?

China will no longer be a superpower if that's the case b/c that means they have about 500 million cases by now, so there's some good news. lol

You call Trump a liar, but this "official" is telling the truth? Not by any math with which I am familiar.

Could it get to that number? Sure, but there's no basis for that conclusion right now whatsoever. As of today that clearly meets your definition of a "lie".

[CitizenBBN]

Again...those are confirmed cases. The article puma linked was talking about undiagnosed cases.

Yeah, but do the math. There are only 140K confirmed cases worldwide. Does ohio have more cases than reported? Sure. Does it have as many as all the confirmed cases on the whole planet?

Seriously? No statistician would support that supposition.

100K in Ohio is an infection rate of .85% of their population. Italy has 60.8mil people, which means 519K cases, when only about 15K cases have been reported. Which means the "have it" to "confirmed" ratio is 34x in Italy, picking a country that clearly has a desperate problem and thus a very high rate of unconfirmed cases in order to be as conservative as possible.

there's no basis whatsoever to conclude that, at a minimum based on that Ohio statement, for every confirmed case there are 34 unconfirmed cases. It's possible there are 100, but there's no basis for that estimate based on the growth trends we've seen.

If it's off by a factor of 34x people need to stop worrying about toilet paper and pull their money out of banks and clean their guns b/c the system is about to completely break down.

The good news is there's absolutely no basis for such a conclusion.

[ukpumacat]

So there are almost as many cases in Ohio than the reported cases currently worldwide?

China will no longer be a superpower if that's the case b/c that means they have about 500 million cases by now, so there's some good news. lol

You call Trump a liar, but this "official" is telling the truth? Not by any math with which I am familiar.

Could it get to that number? Sure, but there's no basis for that conclusion right now whatsoever. As of today that clearly meets your definition of a "lie".

Gotcha.

[dan_bgblue]

100,000 is a popular number. I heard the king of Spain say they would have 100,000 confirmed cases by the end of next week.

[ukpumacat]

https://twitter.com/brianstelter/sta...621130752?s=21

Even Tucker Carlson sees it.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...failure-123166

[Catonahottinroof]

Here is a pretty handy link that is updated hourly. According to the link, Spain is close to 6K cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

100,000 is a popular number. I heard the king of Spain say they would have 100,000 confirmed cases by the end of next week.

[dan_bgblue]

Would stretching the truth be the proper phrase, or would crying wolf about the 100,000 cases be more accurate?

[kingcat]

I hope we will not be all too testy about the politics involved. After all, disagreement and discussion is a function of democracy. Even among "the people"

I think we can all at least agree that preparedness, which this situation magnifies, is an excellent and beneficial learning process going forward. Mistakes have and will be made, and no one is certain of what we may actually face here until it runs it's course, but the next such situation may have proven dire in its outcome if not for this one. That's a positive we can all take from it.

I cant help but think we are not all that far apart at the root of it. It's only that it effects each of us in a unique and particular way. And each of us have a unique way of dealing with it.

Thankfully, we are not like "The Borg" in how we respond and think (a Star Trek reference)

[ukpumacat]

It’s not just an “old people” virus.

In France:

FRANCE NOW AT EPIDEMIC LEVEL. All restaurants, cafés, non-essential services closed. MORE THAN 50% OF THE 300 #COVIDー19 CASES IN FRENCH ICUs ARE PEOPLE UNDER 60; France now has 4,500 cases, which doubled in the past 72 hours, said Jérôme Salomon, head of French health service.

[bigsky]

Scoffin now is just whistlin past the graveyard.

[KSRBEvans]

Here is a pretty handy link that is updated hourly. According to the link, Spain is close to 6K cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

That is a really interesting site--thanks for the link.

The stat of cases per 1 million population gives you an interesting ranking:

1. Italy 349.9/1 mil population
2. Norway (which nobody seems to be talking about) 204.6
3. S Korea 159.9
4. Switzerland (same as Norway) 159.2
5. Iran 151.5
6. Denmark 142.8
7. Spain 136.7
8. Bahrain 124.6
9. Qatar 117.0
10. Sweden 95.2

If I counted correctly, the US is 37th on that list at 8.6 cases/million population. Now maybe it's just slow to arrive here, maybe something else has happened in other countries vs here, but when you break it down to an apples/apples comparison I find it interesting.

[KSRBEvans]

Vatican cancels public celebrations of Holy Week/Easter:

http://www.vatican.va/various/prefettura/index_en.html

[Catonahottinroof]

The bigger thing that I get from that site is I can (in my head at least) combine the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain. The population of those 5 are nearly equally to the US.

That is a really interesting site--thanks for the link.

The stat of cases per 1 million population gives you an interesting ranking:

1. Italy 349.9/1 mil population
2. Norway (which nobody seems to be talking about) 204.6
3. S Korea 159.9
4. Switzerland (same as Norway) 159.2
5. Iran 151.5
6. Denmark 142.8
7. Spain 136.7
8. Bahrain 124.6
9. Qatar 117.0
10. Sweden 95.2

If I counted correctly, the US is 37th on that list at 8.6 cases/million population. Now maybe it's just slow to arrive here, maybe something else has happened in other countries vs here, but when you break it down to an apples/apples comparison I find it interesting.