Hurricane Kristy - Cat 5

**Darrell KSR** · 10-24-2024, 04:44 PM

This may be one of the most beautifully formed hurricanes I've seen.

https://x.com/i/status/1849552168082100318

**suncat05** · 10-25-2024, 08:37 AM

My son's fiance is still there in the Philippines, and she had to evacuate her house because of flooding, but she is safe.
We heard from one of my wife's aunts in Cavite, they are fine. Everyone that lives in Manila that we've heard from are okay. There are still a few that we haven't heard from, but I'm sure we'll hear something soon.

**dan_bgblue** · 10-25-2024, 09:40 AM

Originally Posted by suncat05

My son's fiance is still there in the Philippines, and she had to evacuate her house because of flooding, but she is safe.
We heard from one of my wife's aunts in Cavite, they are fine. Everyone that lives in Manila that we've heard from are okay. There are still a few that we haven't heard from, but I'm sure we'll hear something soon.

Good news suncat. Hope you hear from the rest of the clan soon.

**blueboss** · 10-25-2024, 09:52 AM

What’s Patty up to? Last I saw she was still TS, and is acting like it might make her way to the Gulf of Mexico.

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**dan_bgblue** · 10-25-2024, 03:54 PM

Oscar is heady for Bermuda, and Patty is just a hurricane hunters wish for right now. It could gin up something in the bay of canned peaches, but that would still be 4 to 6 days out if it ever gets it's spin on.

**blueboss** · 10-25-2024, 04:26 PM

Patty update…

https://automagazine.pt/brace-for-im...loridas-coast/

Maybe a little premature knee jerk but with all the SW (not to slight the SE side from Milton) coast of FL has been through, I guess the meteorologists are a little jumpy.

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**dan_bgblue** · 10-26-2024, 08:05 PM

The wind shear is keeping "Patty" from developing into more than nice blob of thunderstorms with no rotation. If it tries to move north or northwest, the shear is going to tear any organization to pieces. Imo, Monday or Tuesday would be the earliest we would see any development other than movement into Jamaica or Cuba.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...-1000x1000.gif

**dan_bgblue** · 10-27-2024, 07:38 AM

Wind shear is weakening and the swirlie is trying to sneak into the bay of canned peaches. This late in the season, cyclogenesis most often occurs in this area of the gulf. Keep track of the Carib from Belize to Brownsville for the next 7 days

**Doc** · 10-27-2024, 01:56 PM

The bay of canned peaches? Got to love autospell!

**Catfan73** · 10-27-2024, 05:55 PM

Thanks. Now I want cobbler.

**dan_bgblue** · 11-03-2024, 10:53 AM

Well Patty shifted to the eastern Atlantic and is projected to land in Portugal as a 35 mph depression.

The next TD is likely to steam north and may enter the gulf thru the Yucatan Channel in the next couple of days if it does not get destroyed by the Yucatan peninsula. If you are headed to the gulf in the next week, anywhere from Brownsville to the Florida coast, I would stay alert to the forecast

**dan_bgblue** · 11-03-2024, 06:51 PM

Here is the best guess on the track for TS 18

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...nd120#contents

**blueboss** · 11-04-2024, 06:00 PM

Raphael is on deck…

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2024/11...orecast-track/

https://weartv.com/news/local/tracki...gulf-next-week

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**Darrell KSR** · 11-04-2024, 06:53 PM

My daughter flew to Jamaica today.

Rafael is flying into Jamaica tonight.

She inherited the Cartwright luck.

**dan_bgblue** · 11-04-2024, 07:25 PM

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...-1000x1000.gif

**blueboss** · 11-05-2024, 07:53 AM

Originally Posted by Darrell KSR

My daughter flew to Jamaica today.

Rafael is flying into Jamaica tonight.

She inherited the Cartwright luck.

https://viconsortium.com/vi-hurrican...end-to-jamaica

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**Darrell KSR** · 11-05-2024, 01:13 PM

Hey, could've been worse. I suggested the Cayman Islands for her. Rafael is expected to be a hurricane when it hits there.

Gentle, peaceful rain where she is today. They're overlooking the water, reading, and playing board games. She has a massage scheduled for later today, and reservations at a French Jamaican restaurant tonight. Could be a lot worse!

**dan_bgblue** · 11-05-2024, 02:56 PM

Looks like the bulk of the worst weather has advanced beyond Jamaica and is headed for the Caymans.

**Darrell KSR** · 11-06-2024, 10:46 AM

Was sunny this morning as they headed to the beach. Think she's going to get bouts of sun and rain throughout the week, but that's fine with her.

**Doc** · 11-06-2024, 12:23 PM

Raphael now a Cat 2.

**dan_bgblue** · 11-06-2024, 03:08 PM

It is doubtful that it crosses the gulf once it departs Cuba. Colder surface water temps and significant wind shear should cause it to fall apart in the mid gulf on it's way toward New Orleans and or Port Arthur. .

**blueboss** · 11-06-2024, 07:30 PM

Still about the same forecast from earlier in the week.

https://weartv.com/news/local/tracki...gulf-next-week

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**dan_bgblue** · 11-07-2024, 05:41 PM

Darrell, I am really happy that Jamaica did not take a big hit. It appears that the cane ran off to the north west.

**Darrell KSR** · 11-07-2024, 06:40 PM

Originally Posted by dan_bgblue

Darrell, I am really happy that Jamaica did not take a big hit. It appears that the cane ran off to the north west.

Me too, Dan. I was really worried when it first came up.

Been beautiful the last two days. As I was taking her car to the shop today, she sent me this pic...

**blueboss** · 11-14-2024, 06:50 PM

Sarah on deck to cross over Nicaragua/Yucatan then into gulf…

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