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Thread: Coronavirus
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04-23-2020, 11:41 AM #691
Re: Coronavirus
Governor Cuomo just gave preliminary results from a statewide antibody test they did.
The caveats:
- Tested people coming out of grocery stores
- Tested people across the state in every county (not just in NYC)
- Tested people that had "not been sick" or had coronavirus.
The results = 14% tested positive.
New York has been a hot spot so that may be more widespread there than in other places.
The two studies done in California (one in Northern and one in Southern) found the infection rate to be 4%.
The Germany study found 14%.
A very very small study on a corner street outside of Boston found 30% were positive.
A study in the Netherlands found 3%.
A study in Iceland found below 1% (although that study noted its a very sparse country).
There are many critics of some of those tests.
If 4% is accurate throughout California...that would mean roughly 1.4 million have been infected. 1,438 have died. So that would be a death rate of roughly .1%.
If 14% is accurate in New York. That would mean 2,800,000 have been infected. 21,000 have died. That would be a .7% death rate.
This is of course why these antibody tests are so important. .1% is VASTLY different than .7% in terms of a death rate. And again, there is a decent amount of skepticism about those numbers. But, its all very interesting and we can all hope that Science continues to find more and more people have had it and continue to drive that death rate down.~Puma~
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04-23-2020, 11:54 AM #692
Re: Coronavirus
And Chuck, before this thing really took off you posted in a thread (I believe on the Premium Board?) about the balance of loss of life and loss of economy.
You were lambasted pretty good for it. I stayed out of that particular discussion because I was really torn on how I felt.
However, I will say that if the death rate is around .5% (which it seems to me it is below 1% but above .3% depending on age of population etc), that discussion is palatable.
The Swine Flu infected 60 million Americans. So a .5% death rate is still 300,000 Americans dying. Which is just devastating.
BUT...our lockdown has saved a lot of lives already by helping the hospital system prepare. People will practice social distancing to some degree far more than in 2009 when that wasn't even a thing. Much of the spread always happens in schools because of close contact and we have largely avoided/postponed that for months at least.
I still think that at the point we have come in this mitigation that it is wise to see it through the next few weeks. But I do think there can/should be a serious discussion on getting to Phase 2 and 3 faster once we are through this period of mitigation.
I will still probably advise my mom not to leave her house until there is a vaccine.
But it at least brings up a serious question of what should happen if/when a 2nd wave pops up in late Fall.~Puma~
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04-23-2020, 01:11 PM #693
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Re: Coronavirus
The city which was tested in Germany was one of the first cities hit in Germany and it was hit pretty hard. So having a higher percentage rate, similar to NYC, makes sense.
I have not reviewed the New York Ab testing data, but from the description I have seen it sounds like they tried to sample as wide and diverse a population as possible which is VERY good. That being said, there is still some slight positive selection bias because it sounds like they were testing people who went out to the supermarket (those that stay home the most are the least likely to be sick and the least likely to be sampled). As for NYs death rate, the higher NY death rate is possibly partly due to the hospital system capacity being stretched very very thin and doctors starting to be more conservative in their treatments.
On the other hand, the California numbers seem low based on population density. To their benefit, SF was the first location to implement hardcore lockdown and that could have dramatically reduced California's numbers. That being said, California has not been testing near enough, which means a number of deaths are not being counted as SARS-CoV-2 deaths (just see the two early deaths they discovered recently). Additionally, their testing method is not nearly as good as New York's.
I imagine as time goes on, the variance in these numbers will settle down in one direction or another. The antibody testing will be critical in determining who has been exposed and what the real R0 and death rates are.
On another interesting note, some recent studies have indicated there is a possible link between hypertension medicines and worse reactions to coronavirus infections. It is still very tentative but it appears ACE Inhibitors/ARB medicines (i.e. Vasotec, Valsartan, Irbesartan, etc.) for hypertension make people far more vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2. The debate is still going on about whether it is the medicine or the hypertension itself which makes people more vulnerable to the virus. This is the third predictor for if a patient will need hospitalization along with age and obesity.
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04-23-2020, 02:05 PM #694
Re: Coronavirus
Thanks Pedro. It will be fascinating to look back on all of this 5 years from now. I have a feeling we are going to look at this Virus in an entirely different way then. How? I don't know of course. But we still know very little about it and it seems to be quite the quagmire of a virus.
~Puma~
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04-23-2020, 06:47 PM #695
Re: Coronavirus
Someone should probably tell the President that injecting people with bleach or disinfectant will kill them.
I hope to goodness no one tries this.
https://www.politicususa.com/2020/04...ronavirus.html
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04-23-2020, 07:25 PM #696
Re: Coronavirus
lol, yeah that will hurt.
Re the economics, people can get offended if they want, but all decisions are a function of some form of economics or another. We don't live in Star Trek world, we don't have unlimited resources and machines that convert energy to matter without even environmental consequences.
Economics is the study of the allocation of scarce resources, and thus is the study of decisions for everything we do, as everything we do is scarce, from our ability to fund things to our natural resources to our time as individuals.
If this turns out to be a mortality rate <1% and anything like 0.5% then we are looking at the same basic mortality rate as the flu. I know people hate that comparison but that's about right.
If that's the case then the next question is virulence IMO. This unfortunately seems WAY more contagious than the flu, so even having the same mortality rate makes it a much bigger problem.
But that does let us start making decisions on how much to trade off economic costs and yes our individual liberties against the risk of spreading the virus.
It may be that, if we can't find a broad enough vaccine, we have to accept simply slowly letting people get it at a rate where we can keep the mortality rate way down by not overwhelming hospitals and accept that sometimes Mother Nature throws these things at us and takes lives.
We lost huge numbers in the spanish flu, but we've seen droughts and floods and all kinds of things thrown at us and it does take a toll in lives. At some point we can't simply hole up forever, so some kind of controlled exposure with the best treatments we can find may be our best option.
But with some better data maybe we won't have to guess, which is about all we're doing now on both ends. Some states are probably too loose, some are too tight, we're all over the place. If nothing else that isn't bad as it does give us 50 different experiments to learn from as we go.People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
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04-24-2020, 06:40 AM #697
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Re: Coronavirus
To even raise the issue of injecting the body with disinfectant speaks to the ignorance of this man. The absurdity of it all.
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04-24-2020, 08:07 AM #698
Re: Coronavirus
Speaking to the ignorance of some! But for the "slow" ... the actual quote in question was a QUESTION. He asked a QUESTION of the expert. That is what people do when they want to find out an answer.
"and then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute.... and is there a way we can do like that? By injection or inside, or almost a cleaning...inside the lungs, and it does a tremendous number of (inaudible)....So it would be interesting to check that. So you're going to have to use medical doctors. Is sounds interesting to me.
Here is the portion of the presser, you know...in context, from MSNBC just so you can't run from the room screaming "FOX NEWS, FOX NEWS".
We get it. You hate Trump and there is not a ####ing thing he could do correct under any situation. He started too late, he didn't have the authority, he didn't pay attention to the experts, he should not have offered hope......... But he asked a QUESTION of he EXPERTS.Last edited by Doc; 04-24-2020 at 09:48 AM.
“You show me a good loser, and I will show you a loser.” - Jim Otto
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04-24-2020, 08:14 AM #699
Re: Coronavirus
If people inject themselves with bleach to get rid of the coronavirus, they will die. Injecting disinfectants will kill people, not the virus. The President Of The United States should be smarter than this, but Donald Trump is the current president, and he isn’t.seeya
dan
I'm just one stomach flu away from my goal weight.
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04-24-2020, 08:35 AM #700
Re: Coronavirus
Correct, except he never said to inject bleach. If he ever says "inject bleach" I would love to see it. A disinfectant is a liquid, any liquid, that kills bacteria. Mouthwash is a antiseptic disinfectant, and shockingly I have ingested it at some point in my lifetime. So is iodine, something that has been injected into my body. Is it possible to produce an injectable form of iodine that is a disinfectant? (That is a question so don't go home and inject yourself with iodinized salt).
As you stated, there are lots of things the President does not know. Should he know that there are not parenteral disinfectants? Clearly he does not, so why not ask the expert? Unfortunately people think disinfectant = bleach, including the buffoonish media who started this hoax. Probably because 99.9% of the people don't actually know what a "disinfectant" is, but saying "bleach" makes him sound dumb even though its the ones who are saying it are the ones poorly informed. Trump does a good enough job on his own of doing dumb things and sounding dumb but manufacturing gaffs fails IMO.Last edited by Doc; 04-24-2020 at 09:49 AM.
“You show me a good loser, and I will show you a loser.” - Jim Otto
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04-24-2020, 09:07 AM #701
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Re: Coronavirus
I believe you are blurring the line between antiseptic and disinfectant. Antiseptic is applied to the human body or ingested. Disinfectant is applied to a non-human surface. Mouthwash, hand sanitizer and wipes are antiseptics. Bleach is a sisinfectant. Wipes can actually be both.
Real Fan since 1958
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04-24-2020, 09:32 AM #702
Re: Coronavirus
A disinfectant is a chemical liquid that destroys bacteria. You are correct that antiseptics are typically used on living tissue while disinfectants are usually but not restricted to inanimate objects. I should have been clearer. Antiseptics are typically less potent hence can be used on living tissue while harsher disinfectants usually are not (I will edit my post for correctness).
Regardless, there was never a suggestion of injecting bleach. People are confusing, or "blurring" the difference between a question and a suggestion.Last edited by Doc; 04-24-2020 at 09:47 AM.
“You show me a good loser, and I will show you a loser.” - Jim Otto
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04-24-2020, 10:21 AM #703
Re: Coronavirus
Common mistake. Who here hasn't huffed spray disinfectant?
(jk) I actually thought it was more a funny Bush like moment.
Give me..
..or give me death!
Some people just dont know when to get off the stage.Last edited by kingcat; 04-24-2020 at 10:30 AM.
“Before I leave I’d like to see our politics begin to return to the purposes and practices that distinguish our history from the history of other nations,
“I would like to see us recover our sense that we are more alike than different. We are citizens of a republic made of shared ideals forged in a new world to replace the tribal enmities that tormented the old one. Even in times of political turmoil such as these, we share that awesome heritage and the responsibility to embrace it.”
-Patriot and Senator. John McCain
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04-24-2020, 10:32 AM #704
Re: Coronavirus
Just as absurd as Biden suggesting you blast a shotgun through your door at an unknown person on the other side.
They're both fools, I think that much is well established. So is Nancy Pelosi standing in front of $50,000 worth of refrigerators eating $40 ice cream talking about the suffering of people. So is the GOP leadership ,the Democratic leadership, and a crap ton of people on the Hill.
It's not an exclusive club unfortunately. The question is why we keep nominating the worst possible people to run this country.
Trump is an oaf, and an ass, and despite his financial accomplishments clearly has some big gaps in his knowledge and intelligence. Biden as I've said since the 1980s is absolutely one of the dumbest people in national office and has been for 40 years.
Yet these are our two choices.People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
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04-24-2020, 10:40 AM #705
Re: Coronavirus
It shows a lack of knowledge for sure, and something I would consider to be pretty basic knowledge at that, but not necessarily a lack of intelligence.
Trump has said a lot of things that makes me think he is simply not well versed in very many subjects. He has asked numerous questions that, while I'm all for out of the box thinking, show he really doesn't know the subject matter very well.
And I have no objection to calling that question "dumb" simply b/c it is very basic to me. Anyone from the age of 12 should know that answer.
The good news is that's not the end of the world as long as others on his staff know and he listens to them, which he seems to do most of the time.
Would I prefer he be far more educated on a wide range of basic subjects that could come up as POTUS? Yes. He never was my first choice, or my 3rd.
But for ANYONE who is going to vote for Joe Biden to say we can't have a POTUS who is that foolish or uneducated or simply dumb is now maxing out their hypocrisy, b/c there isn't a man in Washington dumber than Joe Biden. His handlers have had to steer his career from the beginning, and those "gaffes' are just moments when he isn't reading his prepared script and his real level of stupidity comes out.
If it's simply a matter of voting for the candidate with the most basic intelligence Trump actually wins that contest easily, despite the fact that no, I don't think he's terribly intelligent.
And that's the conundrum of the American voter. Last time we got to choose between Trump with all his many faults and a clearly corrupt power monger. This time we get to choose between Trump with the same warts (but who hasn't in fact caused WWIII or any other calamity) and one of the absolute dumbest and most "managed" candidates in our lifetime.
Great choices, part deux.People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
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04-24-2020, 10:49 AM #706
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04-24-2020, 11:01 AM #707
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04-24-2020, 11:19 AM #708
Re: Coronavirus
It's mainly just funny! I would hope no one does anything so...uninformed or whatever.
“Before I leave I’d like to see our politics begin to return to the purposes and practices that distinguish our history from the history of other nations,
“I would like to see us recover our sense that we are more alike than different. We are citizens of a republic made of shared ideals forged in a new world to replace the tribal enmities that tormented the old one. Even in times of political turmoil such as these, we share that awesome heritage and the responsibility to embrace it.”
-Patriot and Senator. John McCain
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04-24-2020, 11:34 AM #709
Re: Coronavirus
True that.
Yes, it's almost always down to the lesser of evils. I certainly am no big fan of Trump, he's not some guy that I look at and say "wow he's my first choice", but if my other options are a grossly negligent corrupt criminal and a guy who I know for a fact is a complete idiot, I guess I'll live with it since he at least appoints conservative judges.People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
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04-24-2020, 11:48 AM #710
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04-24-2020, 11:49 AM #711
Re: Coronavirus
I'm not. I didn't see this on "media". I watched him ask it live and then googled to find a video of it. The link I shared had the tweeted video of him asking the question.
That's why I said, "Someone should probably tell the President that injecting people with bleach or disinfectant will kill them."
As Mick pointed out, there is a major difference between disinfectants and antiseptics. And the difference is in the application and concentration.
Both can contain alcohol, etc. But antiseptics are for living organisms and disinfectants are for inanimate objects. And since you are a "Doc", I certainly am not going to debate you on any exceptions. Just to say that this is how 99.9% of Americans understand the difference (which is really the point). Bleach, of course, is one of the most common disinfectants that people have at home.
So as I said, someone should answer the President (and anyone listening to him that doesn't know) and tell him that people should not inject disinfectants and that he should not ask medical questions like that publicly at a Press briefer (the fact that I even have to type those words is how far we are into this rabbit hole). No one needs to hate the President to see the danger in the question.
The fact is that after the President said what he said about Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine, people ordered it by the thousands. And a couple in Arizona took some from their fish tank cleaner and died from it (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...event-covid-19).
So yes, as crazy as it sounds, people actually do listen to the President talk and ask questions. Especially when they are scared and desperate. And they actually do need to be told that it isn't safe for them to inject ANY type of disinfectant (and some types of antiseptics), whether it be bleach or Lysol wipes.~Puma~
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04-24-2020, 11:50 AM #712
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04-24-2020, 11:56 AM #713
Re: Coronavirus
Fwiw, before anyone goes too far down the road of defending his question...he is now saying he was being sarcastic and didn't mean it as a serious question. And he said he wasn't asking anyone on his staff, he was asking reporters sarcastically because he knew they would run with it. Uh huh.
Which, of course he wasn't, but what else is he supposed to say at this point?
The FDA and Lysol actually released statements telling people not to inject their products, etc. As Brett Bair said, "he often goes off script and steps in it. And he did here".Last edited by ukpumacat; 04-24-2020 at 12:11 PM.
~Puma~
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04-24-2020, 12:21 PM #714
Re: Coronavirus
Last edited by Doc; 04-24-2020 at 12:27 PM.
“You show me a good loser, and I will show you a loser.” - Jim Otto
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04-24-2020, 12:25 PM #715
Re: Coronavirus
Agree totally. My initial thought was he was being sarcastic, because I made the mistake of actually believing what the media reported as accurate. It wasn't! However he is blowing smoke up my ass if he thinks I'm buying the "I was being sarcastic" after watching the clip. He wasn't. But then he didn't say inject bleach...but I've made my point on that.
“You show me a good loser, and I will show you a loser.” - Jim Otto
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04-24-2020, 12:39 PM #716
Re: Coronavirus
The link you provided is factually incorrect. It is headlined "Trump Wants To Inject People With Bleach To Kill Coronavirus". Nowhere did he mention bleach but the media will present it because of a bias, and it sounds so much better. HE DOES NOT WANT PEOPLE TO INJECT BLEACH. At no time did he suggest it. I would be more inclined to blame the media if anybody does inject bleach because it is them that have advanced the idea, not Trump.
IMO, it's called "thinning the heard" and why we came up with Darwin awards. Any idiot who would drink fish tank cleaner is, well, an idiot, just like somebody who would inject themselves with bleach. But then we have people who eat Tide Pods, or go into stores and lick ice cream and return it to the freezer, or eat an entire tablespoon of cinnamon.. all in the name of a "challenge" so the idea that some dolt would inject bleach into themselves is not all that far of a jump. A large segment of our population are morons who lack the ability to think for them selves. In my house we call them "Democrats" (LOL--that is a joke). Trump should state "Vote for me in Nov" because apparently he has some magical ability to control people's actions and make them do anything he wills.Last edited by Doc; 04-24-2020 at 12:41 PM.
“You show me a good loser, and I will show you a loser.” - Jim Otto
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04-24-2020, 12:57 PM #717
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Re: Coronavirus
I was not a fan Obama. I disagreed with policy and he totally me when UK went to the White House and gave his speech.
Any person on that stage to the press asking such a ridiculous and to even suggest that scientists take time to consider that is not fit for office.
And now he backtracks. The WH briefing room is not the place for levity--which it wasn't. Trump was serious. Now liberals have dumb ideas and while I am not a fan of Trump, I'd criticize anyone for making a claim that stupid.
The Clintonian way his words and science are being parsed to somehow mitigate what he said is a little disheartening.
I am not going to defend democrats who say stupid things or lie. I want to hold elected officials and their appointees to an a fair but high standard.
Trump is not a DJ or tv game show host. He is the president and he is not living up to any standard of what a good leader would do.
The Ohio Governor has done a good job. I won't agree on everything but he has done a good job. The Ky governor has done a good job and so has the Maryland and I think the Va governor too.
Michigan's gov I supported until I heard about the flowers and potting soild aisles in Walmart. That was an overreach to be sure.
My points is I think I can go down the list of 50 governors and pick out some thoughtful, hard working leaders on both parties that I will give a good grade too.
If Trump gave me anything to say good job, I would. The limits on the China travel was good.
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04-24-2020, 02:08 PM #718
Re: Coronavirus
is a person who suggests you shoot a shotgun through a door at someone on the other side for self-defense fit for office?
Probably not. So neither is fit for office, yet we can't have a vacant Presidency.
Hillary wasn't fit for office. Is Pelosi fit for office, standing in front of $50,000 worth of refrigerators eating $40 ice cream talking about the struggles of people?
None of them are fit for office the way we would want IMO. Unfortunately there's no real case that Trump is more unfit than Biden on the question of intelligence.
Hillary beats them both by a mile. She's smart for sure. She's also used her intelligence for evil, so that's a problem too. It was only her conceit and ego that got her beat in 2016, which overrode intelligence.People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
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04-24-2020, 02:33 PM #719
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Re: Coronavirus
I would say even implying to inject a person with a disinfectant as a potential remedy is the winning comment on most unfit. As proof even Trump realizes he is a freaking moron, he backtracked on himself saying he was being sarcastic.
Is Hillary evil? In a lot of ways I am sure she is. Is Biden smart? Probably not. He is a plagarist and in terms of public speaking one gaffe after another.
Trump is in a (low) class all by himself in terms of stupidity and that stupidity is on full display here.
When Biden uses the press for a campaign speech to encourage people to drive at night without their headlights on, bring him into the conversation.
But to mitigate Trump at his worst by bringing up opposing political figures as some strawman I just don't get it.
I mentioned the governors and said I am sure we could find capable leaders on both sides of the aisle who would be better than Trump nationally on this issue.
You bring up Hillary and Pelosi and Biden. For whatever their weaknesses the people you referenced would be light years ahead of Trump on this issue if for no other reason than they would let the medical experts speak or have the speech writers get the doctors' responses and Trump would repeat them.
None of the people you mentioned would be dumb enough to suggest what Trump did yesterday. They wouldn't.
Only incestuously plagued monarchies of 1600 century Europe had a head of state as brain damaged as #45. What a freaking back-birth (you know the reference) this guy is.
I get the concept with a pandemic we should "try anything plausible" to improve the situation. But injecting disinfectant as a suggestion disqualifies anyone from making any decision other than which flavor jello you want for dessert in the crazy house.
Would Trump suggest draino for constipation? It would sure clean out the pipes.
I came back to edit my typos...
One can debate meeting in person with North Korea's dictator
One can disagree with the way in which Trump has been critical of NATO countries and their contributions to defense
One can disagree with how best address illegal immigration (and secure borders are a real issue)
One can disagree with economic strategies to improve trade, jobs, etc.
You can't legitimately disagree with the fact in this case what he said was stupid, wrong and dangerous. And that he was not kidding.
That is the hill. That is the line in the sand, the proverbial last straw that clearly portrays this man as the single worst human being to ever live at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW.Last edited by UKHistory; 04-24-2020 at 02:52 PM.
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04-24-2020, 04:42 PM #720
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