Election Thoughts - Big Picture

[ukpumacat]

I wanted to get into some of these post election thoughts as more and more states are now certifying their results.

My final prediction the day before the election (posted on our long thread) was this:

**Final Prediction**

Back in February/March, I picked Biden to beat Trump in a very close race. I am still picking him to win but want to give a bit more detail as I've had fun trying to crunch numbers the last several weeks.
The thing about this race is that it will likely be much closer than it will appear in the final tally. The same way Trump won by a decent electoral college margin but barely won.

My confidence falls somewhere like this:
90% sure Biden wins.
10% possibility Trump pulls another shocker (statistically, it would be a much bigger upset this time around even though it doesn't feel that way)
Out of my 90% sure Biden wins, I am 70% sure he wins by my prediction below. I do think there is a 20% chance or so that he wins very big. By very big, I mean he wins a couple of states we don't think he will. It wouldn't stun me to see him win Texas and Ohio even. Surprise? Yes. But not shock.

My Presidential Prediction: Biden wins 51-47

Biden 305 / Trump 233 in the electoral college.

To get there, I think Biden wins Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania and North Carolina (in order of largest win to smallest). The best part of this, is that he wins NC and therefore we know where its going tomorrow night.

I think Trump barely wins Florida and Georgia. These are the two states I fretted over the most. Its VERY close there and Biden could easily win). He wins Texas and Ohio by 3 and 2 points.

My Senate Prediction: I think Dems win the Senate 51-49. I think they flip AZ, Maine, Colorado and NC. I think they lose Alabama. I think Reps hang on in Iowa barely and Dems hang on in Michigan.

My House Prediction: I think the Dems gain seats. Something like 240-195 when its said and done.

Will I be wrong? Usually am. But, based on as many stats as I can see, these are where I think its headed. I've enjoyed chatting with you guys on this thread.

P.S. Thanks for those that banked your picks. I will likely start or post on a Live Thread tomorrow as results come in. I have a few counties I am looking at very closely that we will know very early on that I think will tell us a lot of where the rest of the night is going.

P.S.S. I'm feeling better about this prediction since Trump is melting down on twitter tonight.

Some things we now know:

I was wrong on the House. Reps actually picked up some seats. We don't know the final number yet but they def did.
We don't know on the Senate yet. It won't be 51-49 Dems but it could be 50-50. January will tell us.
And I was almost exactly right on on the President.

As of today, Biden will win 51-47. That was my exact prediction.

And electorally, he will win 306-232. So I was almost on the nose. I missed it by 1. I only missed that I thought Biden would win North Carolina but just lose Georgia.

Overall, I would say pretty danged good on the prediction side.

Now, what happened and what happens next? Another post and I will break some of that down.

[ukpumacat]

There are two very real things happening because of Trumpism:

1. Republicans are making gains, albeit very small, in larger cities (yes, those same areas Trump keeps saying Dems cheated even though he made gains). Especially some hispanic areas. This is because their "anti-socialism" and "anti-defund the police" messaging has worked under Trump. He deserves credit for this because he (and Hannity, etc) have beaten this same drum for years. Its why they didn't want to run against Biden. He was probably the only candidate that could withstand that attack since Americans are so familiar with him. When you've been in office 47 years and 8 years as VP its hard to scare people you will be something they have never seen before. It would have worked much better if Kamala, Warren, etc had won. But Trump definitely made some gains in some of these areas. Hispanics on the whole are conservative people: family and faith are very important to them. So conservative messaging can work. Anti-socialism messaging really works with them. Trump used that to his advantage. Not enough or across the board...but some for sure.


2. Dems have made gains in consistently red suburbs. This is also largely because of Trumpism. For these voters, a lower taxes message can work. But, these areas largely rejected Trump...not Republican ideals. His bungling of Covid and his "flirtation with white supremacy groups" drove many of them away that voted for him in 2016.
As an example, this was today in Wisconsin where the shooting took place at the mall. This was at a Trump rally there where the Proud Boys (of "stand back and stand by" fame) served as "security".
Attachment 9806

That is them of course flashing the White Power symbol.
I cannot overstate how badly that moment in the first debate hurt Trump.
Losing in these suburbs cost Trump the election. But it didn't cost Republicans down ballot. Again, it was more a rejection of Trumpism than it was Republican policies.
Here is a great map showing the gains made by both sides. The spots you see red are gains Trump made over 2016. The spots you see blue are where Biden made gains over Hillary (this is all by %, not total votes. They both gained in total votes because of high turnout).
Attachment 9807
Notice the red gains in some of the rural (hispanic) parts of Texas. And notice the red gains especially in Miami-Dade (which won him Florida). If you zoom in, you will see some red in some of the larger cities across the map. That is my #1 above.
But notice the blue dots all over the map. These are in suburban areas. And its not just in blue states. Biden made gains throughout the country in these areas over Clinton. Look at the blue gains in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Texas, Georgia, Wisconsin, PA, etc. As you zoom in, the blue dots are everywhere. Every suburb in almost every state. This is where Biden won.
But I think this was more an anti-Trump vote imo than a messaging one. That is my #2 above.


So the question with these two competing movements with Trumpism is this:

What happens now?

As I've stated, this Trump stuff with Rudy and not conceding will play horribly in with those same suburbanites he was already losing. It didn't cost Republicans down ballot in this past election cycle but might it moving forward? Will Dems make more gains in those areas of Georgia (zoom in and you will see Biden made gains throughout the state)...especially in the suburbs? Will it cost Republicans the run-offs in January? I do think it will hurt them. I don't know if it will be enough, but I think it will hurt.
And what happens over the next 4 years? What does Trump do? Does he run again? If he does, I genuinely think he will lose. Beating an incumbent is very very hard. It rarely has happened in American history. Biden just did. I really don't think Trump will make the gains necessary to come back and win. But I do think another Republican could. The anti-socialism message isn't going away. And I could see Republicans continue to make small gains in #1 while getting some of the suburbs back in #2 without Trump. But can they keep the base fired up and coming out without him?

These are all key questions as we move forward toward 2022 and 2024.

[ukpumacat]

Another thing I noticed about this map...which I found kind of funny:

Attachment 9808

Look at Arkansas. Apparently there were still some loyal Clinton voters in 2016. Haha. Trump won them back pretty handily.

[ukpumacat]

This is the same style map from 2012-2016. If you compare them side by side you can see where Trump made gains in 2016 (or where Clinton lost voters...however you want to look at it).
Attachment 9809

As you can see, Trump won that election in the upper midwest (which we all knew). Clinton was not popular there and Trump ran on an "outsider for the people" kind of campaign. It worked (barely).

But, in 2020, he lost a lot of those gains.
Attachment 9810

Again, my argument is that this had less to do with messaging and more to do with Trump himself. His handling of Covid obviously hurt. But his personality, his being perceived (right or wrong depending on your POV) as racist, his handling of the George Floyd fallout, etc.
Someone asked the other day what I meant by his "Law and Order" messaging hurting him. The issue, Imo, was the timing. It was in the direct aftermath of the George Floyd protests.
It fed the idea that he was racist. Instead of coming out more strongly against police brutality. Or coming out and saying, "we will fix this. This is wrong and won't happen on my watch" (and he did say a little of this)....his overall message was a "Law and Order" and "Blue Lives Matter" one.
Think what you will of that, but it hurt him. And again, the issue was timing.
Just as a "Defund the police" message hurt some Dems down ballot (as it was a huge messaging mistake), the "Law and Order" messaging hurt Trump in the suburbs because of the TIMING. It felt un-empathetic.

Over and over again when he had opportunities to reach into the middle and win some of these voters back, he simply refused.
He played to his base and genuinely thought it would be enough to win. And it didn't work.

To me, this picture and scene (which millions of people watched live on television), perfectly displayed exactly what I am saying:

Attachment 9811

We all watched as protestors (mostly white and college aged and not rioting) were gassed and thrown around by police and military. I have no doubt that many of you on here don't agree with me. But I am telling you that scene was horrifying for upper middle class families living in the suburbs of Savannah, Georgia and Phoenix, Arizona.
He saw it as tough. Law. Order.
It was a huge mistake and stuck in people's mind. It just confirmed what many people already thought.

Being against looters and rioters is a good thing. Biden was as well. But doing what he did on that day and not doing enough to show empathy (in their minds) to those upset at the George Floyd murder cost him in all of those blue dot areas.

Do I think these were all of the reasons? No. But I think it was a huge part of it.

[ukpumacat]

A really good article on one suburban county in PA that Biden won and why. And how down ballot Dems didn’t. Further proves what I was talking about above.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/power...5c0_story.html

[Catfan73]

Good stuff Puma.

[ukpumacat]

Another great Map by the Cook report showing the Gains and Losses in this election. Again, this is by % (as both candidates gained due to the high turnout). This one is by state whereas the one above is by county.

Attachment 9815

A few things to notice by this map:

1. Biden gained nearly everywhere. This was an across the board win for him and a pretty clear repudiation of Trump since Republicans gained down ballot in so many places. Trump made gains in 7 states. 4 of which are very blue states. Biden in 43.
2. I still love the Arkansas thing. Haha
3. Utah is interesting to me. I noticed it on the county map as well. There were some VERY red counties there. I will need to dive into it more. None of the other storylines where Trump gained (in certain hispanic areas and some larger cities) makes sense here. And all of the states around Utah went blue (Idaho, Nevada, Colorado, Wyoming, etc).
4. I'm still fascinated by Nebraska and Kansas. I really think this something not talked about enough. Trump's trade war with China really hurt the farmers in the midwestern states. And I think it hurt him there more than people admit. Not enough to lose the states obviously, but it hurt.
5. The Electoral map is changing. It always is. But, what has been a very Republican friendly electoral map is becoming a bit less so (still Republican friendly). Virginia and Colorado were very purple states just two cycles ago and are now very blue states. Ohio and Florida (still is) used to be the tipping point/toss up states. Now it seems to be Arizona and Georgia. And Texas, Texas, Texas. I am so intrigued by what happens there in the next 12 years. It is such a huge piece of the electoral pie and Dems are making gains. Its still not a toss up state, but its moving that direction. Speaking of Texas, I am interested to see what Beto does next. He is terribly popular there. And I want to see whether he goes after Cornyn or if he goes for the Governorship next.

[kingcat]

Interesting. Thanks.

[ukpumacat]

Another thought on the changing electoral landscape:

The largest raw vote margin win for the Republican nominee has been Texas since 1992 (it was Florida in 1988). It has clearly been a red stronghold.
This year, that title for the first time ever goes to Tennessee.

And another thought:

Tennessee is the 16th most populous state. The first 15 most populous states are now either solidly blue or purple.
Blue: CA, NY, IL, NJ, VA,WA, MA
Purple: TX, FL, PA, OH, GA, NC, MI, AZ

Trump won in 2016 because he won every single one of those populous purple states. That will be a high order for any Republican moving forward.