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08-18-2016, 10:21 PM #1
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Several polls are now indicating this is a two-point or less race
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08-18-2016, 11:14 PM #2People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
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08-19-2016, 06:39 AM #3
Re: Several polls are now indicating this is a two-point or less race
No shock since Trump hasnt gone off script in the last week
Aging is an extraordinary process where you become the person you always should have been.--David Bowie.
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08-19-2016, 08:20 AM #4
Re: Several polls are now indicating this is a two-point or less race
He's been apologetic about some of the things he's said as well. I expect he'll be slightly in the lead in the national polls next week.
Cool as a rule, but sometimes bad is bad.
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08-19-2016, 08:23 AM #5
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08-19-2016, 08:27 AM #6
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08-19-2016, 08:40 AM #7
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Re: Several polls are now indicating this is a two-point or less race
No, I was speaking of the two contestants. And while you may be right about him not being able to stay on message I have noticed a change in his demeanor and the way he is delivering his message. And I believe it is a big improvement.
At the end of the day, it is not only the message, but how the message is delivered. I like what I have seen this last week or so.MOLON LABE!
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08-19-2016, 09:07 AM #8
Re: Several polls are now indicating this is a two-point or less race
I think he WILL be able to stay on message. He's gotten serious about winning. If he touts his plan and lets Pence be the attack dog he'll win.
Cool as a rule, but sometimes bad is bad.
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08-19-2016, 10:01 PM #9
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Re: Several polls are now indicating this is a two-point or less race
Hillary is sitting out another weekend of campaigning. I'm beginning to think she may have some health issues that could cost her.
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08-20-2016, 07:22 AM #10
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08-20-2016, 09:18 AM #11
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08-20-2016, 02:10 PM #12
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Re: Several polls are now indicating this is a two-point or less race
I can't get the thought out of my mind that in the end, neither Hillary or Trump will be president. I expect one of two scenarios to happen. Either BLM and other radical groups cause enough problems for Obama to declare martial law (if Trump wins) and give himself 4 more years as president by executive order or more likely, Clinton wins the presidency and Obama turns his wolves loose on her and she is indicted for the crimes of the last 20 years, before being sworn in. In this case I don't think either her vice or the Speaker of the house would legally be able to become president since she had not been inaugurated and again, Obama has the option to give himself 4 more years by executive order.
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08-20-2016, 03:21 PM #13
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08-20-2016, 04:23 PM #14
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Re: Several polls are now indicating this is a two-point or less race
That martial law declaration would be BEFORE the election, because in doing so habeus corpus and all civil liberties are suspended indefinitely. If he really thought and believed that Trump was going to win. No election, Obama appoints himself POTUS by Executive Order indefinitely. Who's going to stop him? Congress? STHU! The military? After all of the purging of all the general officers he has done, the only ones left are his syncopats. Individual state National Guard and Reserve units? He will have already ordered the confiscation of all of their weapons and ordnances, if he hasn't done that already. Individual state Governors? Yeah, may as well be the Little Rascals.
He cannot let the election happen, otherwise national business has to move forward. He cannot just "invalidate" a national general election. If the election is held and a winner declared. But if he were to move beforehand, then he is holding the keys to the kingdom. Literally.
Think about it. Try to wrap your heads around that thought for a second or two.Last edited by suncat05; 08-20-2016 at 04:26 PM. Reason: additional thoughts
MOLON LABE!
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08-20-2016, 05:49 PM #15
Re: Several polls are now indicating this is a two-point or less race
If you haven't been listening to THE DONALD'S speeches lately, you are missing something. It's a 360 plus another 180 degree turnaround. He is really a very good orator when he stays on script. He has good speech writers and keeps ones interest. IMO he knocked it out of the park in VA today
Aging is an extraordinary process where you become the person you always should have been.--David Bowie.
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08-20-2016, 06:22 PM #16
Re: Several polls are now indicating this is a two-point or less race
If he'd stayed on message from the start, and at least since the convention, I think he is able to jog this one in by 4-5 points. But with the hole he dug to start the one on one race I don't know if he can make it back.
It will take him doing this from here on out, winning the debates while looking Presidential, and ideally something blowing up in Hillary's face.People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
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08-20-2016, 07:51 PM #17
Re: Several polls are now indicating this is a two-point or less race
I think there is a large group of voters just waiting for him to be normal, and not a blabbering ninny. If he can do that until the election, he can solidify that base of people that are hoping and win without the witch getting her broom hacked and winding up in Iran on halloween. jmho
seeya
dan
I'm just one stomach flu away from my goal weight.
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08-20-2016, 08:43 PM #18
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08-20-2016, 10:21 PM #19
Re: Several polls are now indicating this is a two-point or less race
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
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08-22-2016, 10:30 AM #20
Re: Several polls are now indicating this is a two-point or less race
It's all about the State polling.
Clinton is off her highs, but she still has a very commanding lead.
electoral winding path.jpg
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08-22-2016, 01:47 PM #21
Re: Several polls are now indicating this is a two-point or less race
The Hillary Clinton Poll
The Bill Clinton Poll
Aging is an extraordinary process where you become the person you always should have been.--David Bowie.
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08-22-2016, 06:32 PM #22
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Re: Several polls are now indicating this is a two-point or less race
Trump leads in the LA Times poll. http://www.latimes.com/nation/politi...htmlstory.html
I think polls that are using the 2008 and 2012 turnout models will show Hillary much higher than she actually is. I'd expect her turnout to be down from what Obama had in those elections.
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08-22-2016, 07:16 PM #23
Re: Several polls are now indicating this is a two-point or less race
Stay on message (which needs to be mostly economics and terrorism, not law and order IMO, but it's survivable), stay humble, and don't get in the way of Hillary's problems hurting her. if she has a problem he bails her out with his own problem.
Still not sure he or the GOP will have the ground game to pull it off, but maybe with that and Hillary getting in some hot water over one of her dozen criminal enterprises may do it.People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
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08-23-2016, 09:50 AM #24
Re: Several polls are now indicating this is a two-point or less race
I'm not saying that the LA Times poll is inaccurate, but do you understand how that one works?
This article details the methodology, and it's potential flaws. I do agree with the final assessment, that this poll right now as we can understand it, is a better trend analyzer than it is a reflection of who is ahead. A shift of 3 percentage points towards Trump is a very fair assessment of the current trend. Polls of polls are showing that shift, from an 8-9 pt lead to a 5-6 point lead for Clinton. State polling is still confirming a 70 pt electoral win.
Really, it all comes down to 2 states. Florida AND Ohio. If Trump wins those 2, he's the next President. If he doesn't, then he's going to have to take 3-4 battleground states. For him to do that, it will take national momentum. He's wasting his time in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado to name a few.
Winning both Florida and Ohio are doable, even though he faces some fairly consistent negative polling in those states.
It's partially about staying on message, that's important for him, but he needs to actually be in the right states and talking to the right audience is a bigger factor, IMO.
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08-23-2016, 08:43 PM #25
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