http://www.unskewedpolls.com/
Re-skewed is probably a better term. Not sure of its methodology.
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/
Re-skewed is probably a better term. Not sure of its methodology.
Cool as a rule, but sometimes bad is bad.
Here's a cool website with lots of polls compiled: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html
If their data is correct, Obama/Biden need only 23 out of 100 tossup electoral votes (Ohio alone is worth 18); Romney/Ryan need 79/100.
Last edited by Catfan73; 09-25-2012 at 12:27 PM.
changing my signature to change our luck.
The problem with a lot of the popular polls right now is that they're polling democrats heavier, some polls more than others. Rasmussen says there are now more registered Republicans than Democrats by a small margin. Most pollsters are using the data from 2008 which, not only were there more democrats, but there wasn't a record for an incumbent to run on. Now we have 4 years on which to judge Obama and records show that undecides tend to go with the challenger since the incumbent hasn't made his case with them. The closest model to turn to to decide a more accurate sampling for this election would be 2004, except things weren't as bad in '04 as they are now. So, there has to be a fair amount of guesswork involved.
I look at RCP quite often and it's basically a compilation of the popular polls. My guess is that we'll start to see some movement in 2 or 3 weeks that will reflect more accuracy. They know their polls are skewed in Obamas favor. Did you know that a few weeks ago Gallup had Romney up and the Obama administration sued Gallup over some business transaction and the next week Obama was back in front?
Last edited by badrose; 09-25-2012 at 01:06 PM.
Cool as a rule, but sometimes bad is bad.
Here's a link to an example of a skewed poll done back in July:
http://www.examiner.com/article/is-t...ewed-for-obama
Notice there were more independents than republicans in that poll.
Cool as a rule, but sometimes bad is bad.
In 2004 they had Bush winning by 1.5%; he won by 2.4%. In 2008, they had Obama polling with a 7.6% advantage; he won by 7.3%. Currently they have Obama by 3.7%.
No Republican has ever won the election without Ohio, and right now they have Obama ahead with Buckeyes by 4.4%. Out of those 8 states RCP currently has listed as tossups, they have Obama currently leading in the polls in all of them, and he would only need 23 of those 100 electoral votes. Romney has a tough row to hoe.
Last edited by Catfan73; 09-25-2012 at 10:09 PM.
changing my signature to change our luck.
There is no non skewed poll in existence, and averaging lots of polls together is not the answer either, as someone has to pick the polls to average together.
When framing and choosing questions to be asked and in which order they are asked, there is bound to be personal bias involved. It is inevitable and can not be eliminated.
seeya
dan
I'm just one stomach flu away from my goal weight.
I'll be surprised if Obama doesn't win, which says to me pretty much I'm living in the wrong country and certainly the wrong time. I don't want to move to Europe without having to pack a bag. I've been looking for options. Dan's thing in Honduras sounds intriguing.
Maybe the South will secede again. Either that or figure I'm in my 40s and either I'll die before I it gets so bad I can't stand it, or I can move south and drink more where it's warm. I'm leaning to warmer and more booze.
I'd run for office but I wasn't born to high status and don't kiss butt particularly well, and had hoped to avoid selling my soul, so I don't think that will work out. I can make a cogent case for my positions and would be in it b/c I care and not b/c I want the job but once the 15 second attack ads get done I'll be an alcoholic gun nut psychotic redneck who wants to solve the energy crisis by burning old people in power plants and make medical care illegal for anyone who makes less than $103 million a year.
I'd be depressed if I cared, which is why I hate elections. They make me start to care again, and when it comes to this the more I get to thinking the less I seem to laugh.
Not just about Obama either. Depressed at the whole mess. The pathetic sound bite nonsense, the fact that special interests with big pockets control the government, the fact that people now vote themselves economic gain instead of working for it themselves, that the Bill of Rights went from a document that was just an overview of all our rights, which were vast, to the idea that those are the only ones we get, as if they are given to us by the State and not borne to us as the Rights of Man.
The whole thing has been turned on its head. "Democracy" has replaced "liberty", and is an euphemism for "we can do whatever we want as long as we have the votes."
Costa Rica's supposed to be nice, but I'm not real big on spiders as big as your hand.
changing my signature to change our luck.
Just carry a nine iron with you. They make a nice solid splatting sound.
seeya
dan
I'm just one stomach flu away from my goal weight.
Costa Rica may not even be such a good deal for "gringo's" anymore. I have been hearing stories of the drug cartels running their poison through the jungles of CR and fighting with CR authorities.
Truthfully, if I had my druthers about where we exerted our national influence, it would be in the lower America's and the Pacific rim, and less in the Middle East & Africa, although certainly we can't just abdicate from those regions either, especially in light of Iran's current state of ignorance towards all things Israeli.
We truly live in a complicated & dangerous world, which is even moreso because our current POTUS thinks by kissing the hands of foreign potentates that everyone will love us because of his misguided humility, when in fact all he is doing is making America appear to be weak.
JMHO, yours may differ.
RCP now has moved Ohio into the Obama column with a 5.2 point lead in the polls there, meaning they only need 5 more electoral votes. Unless Romney can somehow change the status quo during the debates.
changing my signature to change our luck.
Any poll that is not calling cell phones is horribly skewed. Most younger people lean left, and I don't know of one in ten that has a landline. Younger people don't vote at a high rate, but their numbers are certainly undercounted even with their apathy considered in those polls which don't even reach them.
No phone poll is worth the paper it's printed on. I'm far from liberal, and not young, and we haven't had a land line for probably 15 years. At least 10-12. If they obey the do not call list that eliminates a ton of people.
It's so very depressing. I suppose all good things, but I really wanted America to make it longer than the Roman Republic as a prosperous success. The Republic lasted about 500 years give or take and when it ended and became an empire it already dominated the western world. It was so successful the corruption of empire took another 400 years to do it in.
We won't make 300. I blame the obsession to grant the franchise to everyone.
Two Democratic pollsters confirm major polls skewed against Mitt Romney
http://www.examiner.com/article/two-...st-mitt-romney
Two Democratic pollsters confirm major polls skewed against Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney
August 6, 2012
By: Dean Chambers
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The Campaign Insiders segment appears on Fox News on Sunday and Mondays weekly, co-hosted by Doug Schoen, Pat Caddell, and former New York Republican Congressman John LeBoutillier.
The Campaign Insiders segment appears on Fox News on Sunday and Mondays weekly, co-hosted by Doug Schoen, Pat Caddell, and former New York Republican Congressman John LeBoutillier.
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On the Fox News segment “Campaign Insiders” today, Democratic pollsters Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen both confirmed their belief that major polls are skewed in favor of the Democrats by over-sampling of Democratic voters when the surveys are conducted.
The Campaign Insiders segment is co-hosted on the Fox News Channel weekly on Sundays and Monday by Doug Schoen, Pat Caddell, and former New York Republican Congressman John LeBoutillier.
Last week's Pew poll shows a ten point lead for President Obama, 51 percent to 41 percent, and the last Democracy Corps poll showing a 50 to 46 Obama lead. LeBoutillier said of the two polls, “in both polls, suddenly the president is at the magic 50 percent of above, which he has not been at really all year in any poll.”
The picture above shows the chart they referred to in discussing the Pew and Democracy Corps polls. In those polls mentioned, they surveyed a larger ratio of Democrats to Republicans among voters than there is believed to be among the likely voters this year. If one over-samples voters of either party over the other one this way, given 90 percent support of members of each party for their party's nominee, it likely results in a survey result that skews the poll by about that percentage in favor of that party's nominee.
“Are these polls an accurate reflection of the race today,” asked LeBoutillier.
Schoen responded, “The simple answer is no John. The bottom line is there were seven percent more Democrats in the electorate in 2008 than there were Republicans. That's from the exit polls and that's about as accurate as you can get...President Obama won by about seven points. Given 90 percent of Democrats vote for the Democrat and 90 percent of Republicans vote for the Republican, every time you reduce the margin between the parties by one point, roughly it's about one point off the margin.”
Schoen pointed out that the Pew poll was based on Democrats sampled for having an 11 percent voters registration edge over Republicans. He further added, “saying that America has gotten more Democratic than 2008, which is a questionable assumption.”
Schoen cited the latest Rasmussen poll having a 0.5 percent edge for Democrats over Republicans in voter registration and a four percent lead for Romney in contrast with the surveys that are over-sampling Democrats.
Caddell addressed the over-sampling of Democrats in the surveys, saying, “what you have is an act of utter irresponsibility, in my opinion, by the Pew Poll and the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.”
“They shouldn't be running these...(they) are having an effect on this election that is really bad,” Caddell said of the media outlets publishing these polls as news stories.
“The key issue in this business is integrity...here's the real issue, the explicit message in all of this is, you got to tell the truth, I don't believe that anyone doing a poll today, for whoever, could credibly release numbers that are plus 11 for the Democratic Party,” said Schoen.
Caddell said the reason for skewing the polls, “what is the effect, is it to build an artificial picture, an illusion, of great Obama momentum.”
Cool as a rule, but sometimes bad is bad.
This is what I've been saying.Originally Posted by badrose
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