Having trouble getting registered or subscribing? Email us at info@kysportsreport.com or Private Message CitizenBBN and we'll get you set up!

KSRBEvans

Some tempo-free stats to pay attention to this season for UK

Rate this Entry
Name:  KSR Mod logo 100x100.jpg
Views: 213
Size:  9.4 KB
Name:  rsz_ti-82_stats.jpg
Views: 222
Size:  18.7 KB

Happy college basketball season! As UK begins its quest for its 9th NCAA title tonight, here are some tempo-free stats to keep in mind during the season as you look at the Wildcats' title chances.

--Offensive Efficiency*: As stated in my previous blog entry, there's a strong correlation between a team's Offensive Efficiency (points/possession, or PPP) and the likelihood it will be an NCAA title contender. Of the 11 NCAA champs in the Kenpom Era (2003-present), all ranked in the top 20 nationally in OE, and 8 of the 11 ranked in the top 5 in OE.

The NCAA average is usually around 1.00 PPP. An elite offensive team will score upwards of 1.15 PPP. For example, the UK 2012 NCAA champs scored 1.21 PPP. Last year's UK team scored 1.09 PPP, which was fine--42nd nationally. But not elite, and actually worst for a John Calipari-coached team since his 2005 Memphis team finished 72nd nationally in OE, scoring 1.07 PPP.

--Defensive Efficiency: I beat that into the ground in my last blog entry, but I'll take 1 last flog at the dead horse here because it is important. UK 2013 had the worst DE of any Cal-coached team in the Kenpom Era--by far. That has to improve this season. As Cal said in his press conference yesterday, this team is "not close" to being an elite defensive team, and that stands to reason since they've had early injuries and, well, they haven't played a game yet.

An elite defensive team will allow less than 0.90 PPP. The top 12 teams in DE last season all allowed less than that. The UK 2012 NCAA champs had a DE of 0.90. Last year's team allowed 0.99 PPP.

--Defensive Effective FG%: Effective FG (eFG) % is a way to do an apples-to-apples comparison of shooting by giving 3-point FGs 50% more value, since they count 50% more than 2-point FGs**. It is just 1 of the 4 Factors that play a major role in Efficiency, but Cal's great teams have had elite Defensive eFG%s:

Memphis 2008 (NCAA runner-up): .434 Defensive eFG% (6th nationally)
UK 2010 (Elite 8): .431 (8th nationally)
UK 2011 (Final 4): .442 (9th nationally)
UK 2012 (NCAA champs): .420 (1st nationally)

There are a couple of others like Offensive Rebound% that are also important, but for now we'll leave it at the 3 listed above as ones to look at closely as you follow UK this season.





*--One can roughly compute a team's Offensive Efficiency by the following formula, courtesy of Kenpom's site:
FGA-OR+TO+.475*FTA

**--The formula for computing eFG% is:
eFG% = (.5*3FGM + FGM) / FGA

Submit "Some tempo-free stats to pay attention to this season for UK" to Google Submit "Some tempo-free stats to pay attention to this season for UK" to Facebook

Updated 11-09-2013 at 02:04 AM by KSRBEvans

Tags: None Add / Edit Tags
Categories
Uncategorized

Comments

  1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
    Will be watching this all season. Thanks for beating the dead horse, as I need it repeated to follow.

    Great read.