Ok, Some swings occurring..
Trump will win MN, OH, WI, NC, GA, FL and PA.
Still think AZ goes Blue...
Ok, Some swings occurring..
Trump will win MN, OH, WI, NC, GA, FL and PA.
Still think AZ goes Blue...
Oh, I do believe Trump has a chance. I believe the forecasts are right and that he has about a 10-20% chance. That is unlikely but not impossible.Originally Posted by goodycat
And for him to do it...its not like overcoming a huge margin. He just has to do it in a number of places. He has to overcome a decent margin in Pennsylvania (roughly 5 points on average) and then he has to sweep all of the toss ups (Texas, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Arizona). Is that doable? Yes. It wouldn't stun me. And like everyone else, 2016 lingers.
At the same time, its just as statistically possible that Biden wins in a landslide. He is likely to win PA and then he could take a clean sweep of the toss up states (just like Trump could).
Biden's "chances" are so high for two reasons:
1. He has many more paths/roads to victory than Trump. He doesn't need any of the toss-up states at all.
2. He is up in PA (and can still win without it). Trump HAS to win it (and again, as well as all the toss ups).
Here is a great article detailing how/why Trump can win...even if its a low probability.
One last thought....I will be disappointed if Trump wins (politically speaking as I am not voting for him). If he does, I certainly don't think its the end of democracy or America (as people on both sides of the aisle say every single election).
But if he does, it will really bother me from a statistical/polling standpoint. I love numbers. All types of numbers. So, it matters to me that polls are more correct than not over time. They usually are. And when they are wrong they make corrections. That matters to me a lot.
Last edited by ukpumacat; 11-02-2020 at 12:29 PM.
~Puma~
Found it! Not sure how well it will copy and paste but here you go...This is why National Polls matter imo. They have been very very steady/accurate in the past 5 elections.
Probability of winning the Electoral College based on various popular vote outcomes, according to the FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast as of Nov. 1
POPULAR VOTE MARGIN TRUMP BIDEN 269-269 TIE
Biden +6 to +7 <1% >99% <1%
Biden +5 to +6 3 97 <1
Biden +4 to +5 10 89 2
Biden +3 to +4 30 67 3
Biden +2 to +3 57 41 2
Biden +1 to +2 75 23 2
TIE to Biden +1 89 10 1
TIE to Trump +1 98 2 <1
Trump +1 to +2 >99 <1 <1
Sorry, it is hard to read. Bottom line, a Biden +5 victory nationally gives him a 97% chance to win. 3 points seems to be about the breaking point. If Biden wins by 3, Trump is slightly favored. If Biden wins by 4, he is favored.
~Puma~
I have posted several times on Trafalgar and I am really really interested to see how 2020 turns out because of them. Polling averages work because there is a 3% margin of error in most polls (based on sampling size).
So, a poll having Biden +3 and another having Biden +9 could both be right if Biden wins by +6. That's how it works.
But, Trafalgar often throws averages off because they are such outliers. They famously called Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2016 so they made a name for themselves. They also got the Florida Governor race correct in 2018. But, they have missed a lot of other races by a lot since....
Attachment 9768Attachment 9768
One of the outcomes of the 2020 race will not just be the Presidency, Senate, etc...it will be which pollsters people trust. If Trafalgar is right again, they will not be considered such an outlier and other pollsters will need to change even more. If, on the other hand, Trafalgar continues this more recent trend of being wrong (and always leaning Dem), they will soon lose all credibility (since they are always wrong in favor of R's). Even more so, they are now doing their polling for a GOP PAC.
~Puma~
If Trump wins MN, I will simply be stunned. Hillary won it in 2016 and even Trafalgar has Biden up there.
~Puma~
Rasmussen has Biden +1 nationally, they had accurately polled Hillary +2 in 2016. At Biden +1 nationally Trump will win, because of the way California and some smaller liberal states have overwhelming majorities.
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...se_watch_nov02
Why? It’s a state Hillary barely won and since that time there are a lot of Dems that have come to support Trump.
This is a reminder why looking at one poll (by anyone) doesn't work. Because, they all have margins of error. AND, more importantly, every survey can and will be off. In fact, Nate Silver says one of the best signs of a great/trusted pollster is when they have a poll that is way off with all of their other polls.
For instance, ABC just had a poll that had Biden winning Wisconsin by 17. There is no one who thinks Biden is winning by 17 there. Not even anyone at ABC. But, that is what that particular survey found. And when you are only polling 1,000 people, you will get an outlier like that every once in a while.
So, you have to look at the averages of many pollsters. This evens out the outliers.
Rasmussen, as you said, has Biden +1 nationally. If Biden wins by 1, he will very likely lose (which is still just crazy to say out loud). But, Rasmussen also has Biden +3 in Pennsylvania. Let me go ahead and tell you, if Biden is +1 nationally, he isn't winning PA.
In fact, here is an article by Rasmussen saying how little Trump's chances are at winning: https://www.deseret.com/opinion/2020...ctoral-college
~Puma~
I will be stunned because every single poll (including the very right wing ones) has Biden winning there. Even in 2016, there were a few polls that had Trump winning Wisconsin (which he did).
There has not been one poll since May that had Trump winning there. Not one.
Is it impossible? No. But again, I would be stunned.
~Puma~
Some other numbers I crunched today.
The final RCP average had Clinton nationally +3.2. She won +2.1. So, final average finished within one point.
But, many state polls were off. BOTH ways.
Here are the final RCP averages in several states and the final results in those states:
Wisconsin RCP AVG C +6.5 / FR (Final Result) T +0.7
PA RCP AVG C+2.1 / FR T +0.7
Michigan RCP C +3.6 / FR T +0.3
These were the 3 states that won him the election. On average, he outperformed the state polls there by 5 points.
But, in several other toss up states, he actually underperformed the state polls: Texas, Nevada, Arizona.
And in several others, he basically came in right on target: Georgia, Florida, North Carolina.
More importantly, in all of the following states, his final results were within 2-3 points of his final national results:
Florida, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
All of that to say this....If the National Final Results are the same difference as the state results as they were in 2016, Trump would lose the following states:
Florida, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. He would win Georgia barely.
So, for Trump to win, he would need to expand his margin in all of those states from 2016. They would all need to be trending further red.
This is why the National polls are so important. If Biden wins nationally by 4, he will win the electoral college based on the states above.
~Puma~
The polls are way too often wrong for anyone to have faith in them. Swing state polls were off by as much as 6 points in 2016, and if anything they are going to be prone to be off by more in 2020.
A margin of error of 3.5% means their actual numbers are likely within a 7 point range, and that assumes they are using accurate polling models. That just isn’t a high degree of accuracy
I’m not seeing any enthusiasm for Biden, far less than the enthusiasm for Hillary in 2016. Enthusiasm wins elections because it turns out voters.
Minority numbers for Trump are way up, especially in the swing states.
A recent Gallup poll indicated that 56% of the people said they are better off than they were four years ago. This has always been an election predictor.
A 52% presidential approval rating is a good indicator of how people feel.
When asked who their neighbors are voting for or who will win your state Trump is ahead of Biden. That is not indicative of a big Biden win.
Well, we will know tomorrow. I disagree with you of course but if I were a Trump supporter I would focus on some of those same things for hope.
~Puma~
This is interesting. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El1JY73X0AYmBO1.jpg
**Final Prediction**
Back in February/March, I picked Biden to beat Trump in a very close race. I am still picking him to win but want to give a bit more detail as I've had fun trying to crunch numbers the last several weeks.
The thing about this race is that it will likely be much closer than it will appear in the final tally. The same way Trump won by a decent electoral college margin but barely won.
My confidence falls somewhere like this:
90% sure Biden wins.
10% possibility Trump pulls another shocker (statistically, it would be a much bigger upset this time around even though it doesn't feel that way)
Out of my 90% sure Biden wins, I am 70% sure he wins by my prediction below. I do think there is a 20% chance or so that he wins very big. By very big, I mean he wins a couple of states we don't think he will. It wouldn't stun me to see him win Texas and Ohio even. Surprise? Yes. But not shock.
My Presidential Prediction: Biden wins 51-47
Biden 305 / Trump 233 in the electoral college.
To get there, I think Biden wins Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania and North Carolina (in order of largest win to smallest). The best part of this, is that he wins NC and therefore we know where its going tomorrow night.
I think Trump barely wins Florida and Georgia. These are the two states I fretted over the most. Its VERY close there and Biden could easily win). He wins Texas and Ohio by 3 and 2 points.
My Senate Prediction: I think Dems win the Senate 51-49. I think they flip AZ, Maine, Colorado and NC. I think they lose Alabama. I think Reps hang on in Iowa barely and Dems hang on in Michigan.
My House Prediction: I think the Dems gain seats. Something like 240-195 when its said and done.
Will I be wrong? Usually am. But, based on as many stats as I can see, these are where I think its headed. I've enjoyed chatting with you guys on this thread.
P.S. Thanks for those that banked your picks. I will likely start or post on a Live Thread tomorrow as results come in. I have a few counties I am looking at very closely that we will know very early on that I think will tell us a lot of where the rest of the night is going.
P.S.S. I'm feeling better about this prediction since Trump is melting down on twitter tonight.
Last edited by ukpumacat; 11-02-2020 at 06:49 PM.
~Puma~
Ha. Everyone is scarred from 2016. Btw, this map is EXACTLY the reason I think Biden wins. Dems are scared. They will stop at nothing to get out to vote because they know Trump could win even though numbers say he shouldn't. I think its one of the many reasons you are seeing a huge turnout and its a big reason so many have voted early.
I really think the combo of the surprise of 2016 and Trump doing the whole "mail in is fraud" thing (not to mention no Dems trusting USPS right now) is going to propel Biden and will backfire and Trump as it got people to vote early.
~Puma~
And one final repeat:
The absolute WORST thing that could happen to our country is not Biden or Trump winning. The worst thing that could happen is that this race is super close and lawyers, courts, etc get involved. Or there is tons of threats, rumors or accusations of cheating etc. Or that there IS cheating.
We need a clear election result like never before. If we don't have one, 2020 will make 2000 look like a walk in the park. It would tear this nation apart.
~Puma~
My personal prediction on how it will turn out:
Capture 11-3-20.jpg
But if you look back in this thread you'll also see that I was the guy gaming out how the GOP will deal with Sanders as the Democratic candidate, so that's how much I know.
Best to everybody (and our country), and as I heard Chris Stirewalt say on a recent podcast, if you don't like the results of this election, just hang in there, there'll be another one in 2 years.
Last edited by KSRBEvans; 11-03-2020 at 07:48 AM.
U really think players are going to duke without being paid over Kentucky?--Gilbert Arenas, 9/12/19
Biden and landslidey margins.
Almost exactly as mine except I think Nevada goes Biden.
~Puma~
I know he won't win there but the polls in Montana started getting much tighter these last few weeks for Biden. It was an interesting and too little discussed movement.
~Puma~
I think Trump wins. Polls have pretty much gotten every major election in the western world wrong the last several years.
I just want to know if everyone will still be my friend tomorrow?
I think Biden wins, but I'm voting for Trump.
I think Nevada is Blue too, but I think NC will be a Trump state.
Pennsylvania will be known days later.
Think I am reserved to the notion that Biden win and all we can hope for is he doesn’t screw too much up in his 4 years.
Ha. I will!I just want to know if everyone will still be my friend tomorrow?
I think Biden wins, but I'm voting for Trump.
~Puma~
He might. Keith, as you know...I just love numbers. So if the polls are way off this year, my head might explode. Haha
~Puma~
I think Biden wins. I seriously hope that the republicans retain the senate. I believe that governing from the middle works best in our country. If that can't happen, a stalemate is fine with me.
Biden is not the problem; the American hating liberals will do irreparable harm to this nation and that is absolutely their goal.
Darryl
They have had a very bad track record over the last half dozen years and have consistently missed by overestimating to the left.
Brexit, twice, Boris Johnson, Trump, and Scott Morrison in Australia are just a few of the examples. The list goes on and on.
Montana is solid for Trump.
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