Coronavirus

[CitizenBBN]

Why did Germany get ahead on testing?

They don't have a central FDA/CDC with regulatory power. Seriously. They can recommend, but each of the 13 states has their own health system.

They approved the companies that do the same STD type tests the FDA has banned in the US. Those companies were able to ramp up quickly and have thus gotten home and localized testing out to the country.

When the doctor in Washington developed a test the FDA wouldn't even fast track reviewing it for approval. In Germany he could have worked with local officials to get to local labs and Washington would have had testing far quicker.

In the US we took weeks to leave it to just the CDC alone to develop the only approved test, and that was then flawed in production. We still won't use some of the mail order type tests available, and they are less accurate, and are just now getting FDA approvals for other testing methods.

So the German state, not really known for their libertarian ways, was less bureaucratic than the US system.

(All of that is from sourced material, in fact I think from more left leaning papers but I'd have to find the link)

[MickintheHam]

Can't say I'm surprised. It's DC at its finest. Where businesses focus on being nimble and swift the bureaucrats move at a snails pace. There has never been any sense of urgency displayed by Government Agencies. Let the government get their hands on more money for climate change and it will make the economic effect of the CDC pale in comparison. While American business reinvented themselves in the 80s and 90s the US Government continued to plod along adding meaningless work activities.

Why did Germany get ahead on testing?

They don't have a central FDA/CDC with regulatory power. Seriously. They can recommend, but each of the 13 states has their own health system.

They approved the companies that do the same STD type tests the FDA has banned in the US. Those companies were able to ramp up quickly and have thus gotten home and localized testing out to the country.

When the doctor in Washington developed a test the FDA wouldn't even fast track reviewing it for approval. In Germany he could have worked with local officials to get to local labs and Washington would have had testing far quicker.

In the US we took weeks to leave it to just the CDC alone to develop the only approved test, and that was then flawed in production. We still won't use some of the mail order type tests available, and they are less accurate, and are just now getting FDA approvals for other testing methods.

So the German state, not really known for their libertarian ways, was less bureaucratic than the US system.

(All of that is from sourced material, in fact I think from more left leaning papers but I'd have to find the link)

[bigsky]

I did a cannonball run from Bozeman to Pittsburgh and back, and shared the road with tens of thousands of trucks and truckers. They are out there every day and night, along with the factory shift workers, the warehouse workers, the other delivery trucks, the grocers and drug store and convenience store cashiers and prepared food workers. The "stay at home" is not part of their experience. Stay at home is a fantasy life facilitated by the people who are working to provide what stay at homers consume. One side of the country is Nancy and her ice cream. The other side is living in a world of bleach and alcohol based hand sanitizer, gloved up and working, or at home wondering how they pay for rent and groceries. That may be an overly basic analysis, but so is "if we leave home we're all gonna die'. "We" already leave home.

[CitizenBBN]

I have no idea what "stay at home" means. Haven't missed an hour of work. Have tried to space out my staff and we're observing distancing, but we have work to do so we're doing it.

What we do mostly has to be in person. It's hard to move a chest of drawers through the internet.

This problem is bad, but we likely went a bit overboard as well. Not sure we could have gotten distancing without a crisis to get people to comply more, but ideally we can get some things going again.

The problem is bars and restaurants and "gathering spots" may continue to be closed, and that's going to be a real strain on those people and businesses and on the people who use those services. that's getting old.

Will probably keep me from having auctions in person. Can do previews I imagine.

[ukpumacat]

I really really hope you guys are right on all of this “re-opening”.
It scares me to death. We are so close to the numbers that health experts tell us we need to be. But we aren’t there.
And I’m so nervous this is going to spike like crazy in some of these states that let their foot off the gas.
And of course we have the President inciting his base in Michigan, Minn and Virginia. More and more protesters out.

I just don’t see how any of that is a good thing.
Really really think this is going to backfire. Hope to goodness I’m wrong.

[kingcat]

Its the biggest gamble in American history. And I sure hope we win the flip of this coin.
It's been handed to the states to do the flipping for good reason.

If we think being coupe'd up and seeing the economy suffer leads to anger and frustration, wait until the anger and frustration is perhaps, needlessly fueled by what would be viewed as the intentional sacrifice of many American lives.
The thing is, that was likely to happen anyway in the Fall but wont be viewed by anyone affected in that light.

For the country to survive this, we must be right on both fronts. If the dying escalates there will be a genuine mass hysteria in the streets and the countryside like nothing we have seen before. The average Joe wont stay at home again, but will go to whatever extremes are deemed necessary to survive minus leadership from any side.



..I loved these movies

[CitizenBBN]

"Inciting" sure seems to be an exaggeration. "Go protest your Governor" would be inciting.

The truth is most pro-Trump people are already not really good at taking orders from government, esp. when, like in Michigan, those orders overstep even common sense needs for limitations on our freedoms.

This got on a roll not so much b/c of Trump but b/c a) thankfully a lot of Americans still don't like to be told what they can and can't do (a trait I don't want to lose even in these times), and b) the governor of Michigan ordered that even families and such couldn't go from house to house to see each other, trying to outlaw ANY "gathering" under any circumstances.

That's pretty extreme, esp. in the non-Detroit parts of the state which are not greatly at risk right now.

That got protesters out there, and then others in other states like Kentucky, who also (given they voted for Paul and Massie as well as Trump) don't like to be told what to do, then decided that was a good idea.

[ukpumacat]

Chuck, he’s the President. He poured gas on a terribly dangerous fire. It was stupid to tweet.

[ukpumacat]

And it’s clearly political. Michigan. Minn. Virginia.
He didn’t tweet at California. Or Washington.
He tweeted in battleground states.

It’s appalling in my opinion.

[ukpumacat]

Btw, this is an anecdote that doesn’t really matter.
But I’m not sure this played very well (although it was clearly to his base).

But I have a friend in Pennsylvania. He’s a Dr.
He voted for Trump. He is a Republican and been one his whole life.
I’ve argued with him several times about Trump.
Yesterday, I texted him and said I thought his plan was “surprisingly well done”. Sort of a joke but I did think it was good. He went on and on how good he was etc.

Today, after those tweets, he texted me, “He’s an idiot. He’s going to kill people. He’s seriously not well”.

[CitizenBBN]

Its the biggest gamble in American history.

it's serious, but the truth is any move to ease restrictions is just an easing of restrictions, and not an opening of the floodgates, and we can make adjustments. it's also state by state, further limiting the impact of any move in any direction.

We'll be fine. It's nothing like the decision to commit to the battle of Midway or something.

[CitizenBBN]

Chuck, he’s the President. He poured gas on a terribly dangerous fire. It was stupid to tweet.

I honestly didn't know he tweeted about it. I'm not surprised. He tweets idiocy all the time.

I don't follow his twitter, nor do I track them. Why would I or anyone? They're drivel.

[CitizenBBN]

And yes, it hurts him a lot, even with his supporters. He doesn't see that, and I don't think he could help himself if he did see it.

He'd be a shoe in to win if he were smart enough to constrain himself. He's not, and that's that.

[kingcat]

I think the potential is there for us to succeed admirably, and also for millions to die, which will cause mass anarchy.

Or perhaps something in between.

I have no clue...but I can tell no one else in the world does either.

[MickintheHam]

I really really hope you guys are right on all of this “re-opening”.
It scares me to death. We are so close to the numbers that health experts tell us we need to be. But we aren’t there.
And I’m so nervous this is going to spike like crazy in some of these states that let their foot off the gas.
And of course we have the President inciting his base in Michigan, Minn and Virginia. More and more protesters out.

I just don’t see how any of that is a good thing.
Really really think this is going to backfire. Hope to goodness I’m wrong.

I sincerely don't understand the fear. There isn't a rational person in this country that doesn't know what to do. And compliance with what to do is almost universal. That wasn't the case a month and a half ago when so many people were infected. The benefits of a lockdown have run their course. To see if people can follow distancing rules in three phases seems a very reasonable approach. Requiring increased sanitizing efforts is a must.

I look at the airports and now they have sanitizing machines spraying everything. Did you ever see an airport do any sanitizing other than bathrooms before. (and that was generally poor). Even my supermarket has a machine that sanitizes every cart after every use.

The protest here is over reopening a barber shop. The question is would you be worried to have your haircut if the stylist had a mask and gloves and had their temperature taken. Certainly, there is some risk the stylist is infected, but what is the probability a disease would be transmitted? The guy here wants to reopen in that manner. The waiting area would be closed. You would stand outside until you were called.

To me the airport and the barber shop would be two of the safest places to be. I believe both are better than the super market. All three are in better shape than they were in February. You can't live in a bubble.

The three phase approach is very sensible. If people can't follow the rules or there is a meaningful increase in infections, go back to square one. Unrest exists and it is increasing. That is a threat as well, as you have expressed.

As far as the medical statistics, cases are overstated in the US and understated in China. In both countries that is by design. The "real" data probably shows we are much closer to where we need to be than the medical experts are telling us. At this point I view anarchy as a much greater threat. Hope to goodness I am correct. I believe I am.

[Catonahottinroof]

Agree Mick. People know what to do and how to do it. Just a matter of whether they comply. Also needs to be real with data and not paint it to be a scare tactic. My biggest reminder of that was the Ohio Health Department director throwing out that 100K Ohioans were infected a month ago....
I checked the worldmeter site and Ohio has a little less than 10K cases as of today....I know enough about statistical data from my job to know it was hyperbole to say the least and the media ran with that rather than doing some work to validate it.
NY has the real issue. I’d assume they will be the most cautious to get off a stay at home order and may be the last to assimilate to reopening as normal.

[kingcat]

"Nearly one-third of 200 Chelsea residents who gave a drop of blood to researchers on the street this week tested positive for antibodies linked to COVID-19, a startling indication of how widespread infections have been in the densely populated city"

Id know more how to form my opinion a month from now. And I don't believe anyone knows where we are at well enough to bet theirs, and our lives on.

Too much guesswork by both sides imo. Though I'm not so concerned about myself, although I am high risk, like I am my 82 year old Mother who has kidney disease and nine close Aunts and Uncles over the age of eighty. Not to mention a cousin who is like a brother to me, and who is a struggling double amputee with severe health issues, a 15 year old grand daughter with severe asthma, and several others considered high risk.

In these discussions for me, their lives come first. These are close and close by family to me. And I'm sure most all of us have loved ones we remain concerned for.

I just lost one Uncle in early February to a then, unidentified ailment now suspected to have been the virus. And all are/were active members of society.

These are the "things"/people most important to me, for "Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness".

Life always comes first, or Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness become just meaningless hollow words.

[Catfan73]

I would wager every person here, who had a grandchild being taken to a church for services or that risked being exposed would totally support restricting such a gathering.

As far as our own admitted devils advocate, let's not make him feel uncomfortable. The situation we are all in is quite unique, and also unique to each individual, and not so cut and dry.

I’m still here. I’ve never been a fan of ad hominem attacks though so I thought I would just stay away for a couple of days. I thought it was possible to carry out a dispassionate discourse here but I was woefully wrong. The Barber Shop’s a tough place. I think I’m just going to stick with the other forums from now on.

[ukpumacat]

Don’t get me wrong Mick, I love the 3 phase plan. I thought it was excellent.
And I more than anyone cannot wait to get the hell out of my house and into a bar etc.

My only issue is states doing it before the mark that the health experts have set. There is a very clear line (and this has been long established in many other viruses etc) where we can go back to containment and not mitigation. A lot of these states are doing it before that.

That’s my only issue. It’s simply a matter of weeks. But those weeks can mean the difference between reinfection and long term containment.

[MickintheHam]

Yet, but for a debatable mark, you are willing to let the poor among us suffer. You have too much faith in the accuracy of the statistics.

[CitizenBBN]

"Nearly one-third of 200 Chelsea residents who gave a drop of blood to researchers on the street this week tested positive for antibodies linked to COVID-19, a startling indication of how widespread infections have been in the densely populated city"

That's actually very good news. If the virus is far more widespread than we think then that means a large percentage of people aren't terribly harmed by it and they are developing immunity that may keep them from spreading it. Herd immunity.

[kingcat]

That's actually very good news. If the virus is far more widespread than we think then that means a large percentage of people aren't terribly harmed by it and they are developing immunity that may keep them from spreading it. Herd immunity.

Oh I hope so. It could also mean the testing is faulty, or people are getting re-infected, or they are contracting the virus at a much faster rate.
I guess it would be good to follow up and see how the other two thirds do over the next week or so.
And to see how they all actually respond to being infected.

I guess it's only speculation until that happens.

I know I dont want anyone to be anywhere around the infected at this point.

[Catonahottinroof]

Assuming Chelsea is England? The English model was herd immunity....

[kingcat]

Assuming Chelsea is England? The English model was herd immunity....

That was Chelsea, Massachusetts. My bad, I didn't link..
https://www.foxnews.com/science/thir...?cmpid=prn_msn

And another..
"that the densely packed city of 40,000 has the highest rate of COVID-19 infection in the state, 1,890 per 100,000 residents, with 712 cases as of April 14, according to a public health ranking.
Brockton, which has 1,202 cases, has the second highest rate, 1,222 per 100,000 residents. Randolph, with just 367 cases, has the third-highest, 1,073 per 100,000 residents"
https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/04...fection-rates/

[bigsky]

Resist pink hatted demonstrations more “incited” than today’s little demonstrations.

[ukpumacat]

That's actually very good news. If the virus is far more widespread than we think then that means a large percentage of people aren't terribly harmed by it and they are developing immunity that may keep them from spreading it. Herd immunity.

I agree. These research projects are promising. The "best news possible" at this point in time would be that its far more widespread, and therefore less deadly than we think. To be clear, we all know that is the case (more widespread)...here is to hoping its even more so than we are guessing.
But, as Kingcat is saying, we can't open up states based on "hope" or "guesses". We have to have more and more testing to prove this before making decisions based on it.

I have posted this several times but will say it again: Every interview I have seen with Fauci he states a 2nd wave "could come in the late Fall". I find this so comforting. He clearly thinks the summer weather will have some effect on it. Its certainly going to have an effect on people getting restless.
Southern California has been lucky in that sense. We have had more rain in the past month here than I can remember...ever. But its started to get warm and sunny again. And that will prove to be more and more difficult to keep people home. Let's hope Fauci is right and we can at least have a few months of prep to ready ourselves for a possible Round 2.

[kingcat]

I found this a very enlightening USA Today article on herd immunity..

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...us/5156368002/

[CitizenBBN]

This doesn't really deserve a thread, but what a p***y:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnns-brian-stelter

“I crawled in bed and cried for our pre-pandemic lives. Tears that had been waiting a month to escape,” Stelter wrote in a second tweet. “I wanted to share because it feels freeing to do so. Now is not a time for faux-invincibility. Journos are living this, hating this, like everyone else.”

Grown frickin' man crawled in bed and cried over this? Seriously?

I'm sure he thinks this makes him seem sensitive and caring. Just makes him seem like a baby to me.

So much for people like him living up to the Greatest Generation as we face a crisis. Article says he has a wife and two kids. I think the milkman may be need to be questioned.

[kingcat]

Doesn't sound very genuine does it?. Reminds me of several episodes of Lost in Space where Doctor Smith opines.. "Oh the pain, the pain"

[Doc]

Doesn't sound very genuine does it?. Reminds me of several episodes of Lost in Space where Doctor Smith opines.. "Oh the pain, the pain"

I was channelling Redd Foxx/Fred G Sanford having a faux heart attack