So what do the Tuesday Nov. 8 Results tell us...

[VirginiaCat]

I know many are KY Centric on here. I am in VA. Here is my breakdown.

First, I think Abortion rights are a losing proposition for the R party. I am not sure Americans are pro abortion but I think they are pro choice and for the most part believe in individual liberties over government control/mandate (that is also represented in the marijuana vote results as well). Abortion is really what carried the day in the critical Senate and Delegate races here in Virginia. It matters in toss up races.

The R Party is going to have to come to a balance of understanding abortion policy vs election results. It is that simple.

I do not see Beshear being a bellweather thing. Yes, Conservative R's carried the day in KY EXCEPT for Beshear. But Beshear is closer to Glen Youngkin politically than he is to Nancy Pelosi. KY has only had a R Gov. twice in past 50 years. So this is not a surprise.

I will say, I think Trump is an anchor in tossup races. The R's better figure that out.

[bigsky]

Beshear just reminds me of fishing on Lake Beshear with mu grandfather, and I say that because for most of Kentucky he was a good face of the executive in times of tragedy, feel good guy.

Not any statement at all.

Ohio and Virginia were. My brother in law was ousted from the achool board and elsewhere the online prostitute won, a backlash agains R driven by an emotional abortion issue that has me thinking Haley not DiSantis.

[bigsky]

BiL was Prince George county. Virginia has some places an R cAn’t win so we must carry suburban Moms.

[MickintheHam]

Off year elections hold little significance on the national scene. Off year, non-Congressional races are about local issues, i.e. education constitutional amendments and legislative issues. Nationally, they are significant only in terms of which party controls the state lection procsss.

[CitizenBBN]

The GOP problem with abortion isn't being generally pro-life. it's being so extreme about being pro-life.

Kentucky has no exceptions for rape, incest or health of the mother. Beshear ran a very effective ad with a young lady who was raped by a step father and got pregnant. Even most conservatives have a hard time being OK with a position that would make her give birth to his child.

If the GOP had a generally pro-life stance but allowed for those kinds of exceptions, maybe a 12 week or 16 or whatever window, they would mitigate most of this issue. Most Americans are in the middle on this one, not supporting zero abortions under any circumstances but also not OK with aborting a child at 8 months or while in labor, etc. Both sides have their extremes, and right now the GOP is too close to their extreme end on the issue.

That was one factor in kentucky. As I see them:

1. Being too extreme on abortion - I know a LOT of Republicans and conservatives in Ky that are very uncomfortable with the current law, and Cameron endorsed it
2. Beshear is a reasonably popular incumbent and he and his father are political royalty, and he is well known and you cannot underestimate simple name recognition
3. Cameron really never defined what he was going to do different or why he needed to have the job. There was no core message.
4. Beshear had more money. that always helps.
5. No national race usually favors incumbents, esp. in this kind of race.

The last one is possibly race. I can't judge on that as no one I know had any issue with Cameron's race, but I can't say how that played in some areas of the state. I don't know.


The abortion issue is one the GOP had better recognize as one that is definitely a bellweather for them next year and ongoing, and they had better listen to Nikki Haley on this one.

The rest is just typical local politics and means little for national races. Cameron tried to tie Beshear to Biden, but no one sees the connection b/c Beshear is a pretty moderate Democrat and the GOP has super majorities in the legislature so it's not like he can do anything anyway. It doesn't mean they are OK with Biden. Trump will win Ky by 30 points if it's Trump/Biden next year.

But in less red states they had better put Haley or someone in charge of abortion policy.

Personally I wish some miracle would happen and Haley were the nominee. the Democrats are terrified of her, and for good reason. She would get back the suburban females and suburban independents that are critical to their elections having lost the blue collar base.

[bigsky]

Agree—Should help Haley that she is coherent on the abortion issue.

[dan_bgblue]

I have thought for a long time that she has several positive qualities.

[VirginiaCat]

The GOP problem with abortion isn't being generally pro-life. it's being so extreme about being pro-life.

Kentucky has no exceptions for rape, incest or health of the mother. Beshear ran a very effective ad with a young lady who was raped by a step father and got pregnant. Even most conservatives have a hard time being OK with a position that would make her give birth to his child.

If the GOP had a generally pro-life stance but allowed for those kinds of exceptions, maybe a 12 week or 16 or whatever window, they would mitigate most of this issue. Most Americans are in the middle on this one, not supporting zero abortions under any circumstances but also not OK with aborting a child at 8 months or while in labor, etc. Both sides have their extremes, and right now the GOP is too close to their extreme end on the issue.

That was one factor in kentucky. As I see them:

1. Being too extreme on abortion - I know a LOT of Republicans and conservatives in Ky that are very uncomfortable with the current law, and Cameron endorsed it
2. Beshear is a reasonably popular incumbent and he and his father are political royalty, and he is well known and you cannot underestimate simple name recognition
3. Cameron really never defined what he was going to do different or why he needed to have the job. There was no core message.
4. Beshear had more money. that always helps.
5. No national race usually favors incumbents, esp. in this kind of race.

The last one is possibly race. I can't judge on that as no one I know had any issue with Cameron's race, but I can't say how that played in some areas of the state. I don't know.


The abortion issue is one the GOP had better recognize as one that is definitely a bellweather for them next year and ongoing, and they had better listen to Nikki Haley on this one.

The rest is just typical local politics and means little for national races. Cameron tried to tie Beshear to Biden, but no one sees the connection b/c Beshear is a pretty moderate Democrat and the GOP has super majorities in the legislature so it's not like he can do anything anyway. It doesn't mean they are OK with Biden. Trump will win Ky by 30 points if it's Trump/Biden next year.

But in less red states they had better put Haley or someone in charge of abortion policy.

Personally I wish some miracle would happen and Haley were the nominee. the Democrats are terrified of her, and for good reason. She would get back the suburban females and suburban independents that are critical to their elections having lost the blue collar base.

Chuck, Youngkin was running on a 15 week timeframe in VA. No go.

Now, I say No Go when the R Candidates lost by under 2000 votes each which says it is as much about getting out the vote as anything. And the fact Ronna would not give VA GOP$$$$ says something (like Trump is making the calls and did not want a W for Youngkin).

Interesting update from VA and I have not researched properly yet.

Evidently a D Senator that won has now been found to not actually live in the district she was elected in. At least that is what her neighbors are alledging since they say they have 6 months of video record of where the new Senator is sleeping every night. If she is disqualified that makes VA Senate 50/50 I think.

[CitizenBBN]

Chuck, Youngkin was running on a 15 week timeframe in VA. No go.

Now, I say No Go when the R Candidates lost by under 2000 votes each which says it is as much about getting out the vote as anything. And the fact Ronna would not give VA GOP$$$$ says something (like Trump is making the calls and did not want a W for Youngkin).

Interesting update from VA and I have not researched properly yet.

Evidently a D Senator that won has now been found to not actually live in the district she was elected in. At least that is what her neighbors are alledging since they say they have 6 months of video record of where the new Senator is sleeping every night. If she is disqualified that makes VA Senate 50/50 I think.

I think the big issue right now for the GOP is fear on the abortion issue. He can promise 15 weeks, but that doesn't mean the voters believe that's what it would end up if the GOP controlled both branches. Democrats are playing on that fear and, with states like Kentucky out there, they can make a decent case.

The GOP has to move to center on this issue, and then gain people's trust that they really are going to stay in the center.

Of course there are other factors, like money, getting out the vote in an off year, etc. I agree with you when the margin is that tight it's more about getting out your base than it is issues many times.