I wonder how much US/UK C3I is helping Ukraine

[CitizenBBN]

One give away? The latest Ukrainian offensive, if you read up on it, was successful due to a tactic called "Thunder Runs". High speed run through the lines deep into enemy territory, often avoiding engagements to create a spear point.

The US used it in Iraq when securing the Baghdad airport then again invading Baghdad rather than siege the city, and Ukraine just used it to hand the Russians arguably their worst defeat since 1943. Their spear point was actually not armor, but civilian vehicles that run at high speeds, and they sent US anti tank weapons with them to engage and destroy armor, with the Ukrainian heavy armor coming up behind.

I have to wonder if the Urkranians did this on their own or if US and UK intel and training didn't have a role. Esp. in conjunction with US intel on Russian positions it would make such a run very effective, allowing them to know when to engage and when to bypass.

B/c it doesn't work if you can't get out or maintain supply lines before resistance collapses or distorts, you are screwed. I doubt the Ukranian intel is good enough without satellite and drone intel to make that work like it did.

I have a feeling NATO is helping them even more than is so public with arms.

Putin really seriously miscalculated, and politically I'm embarrassed we did not send a far more clear message to him before the invasion and for years to shore up the nation so it was not such a possible target. We failed Ukraine for years.

Of course he also miscalculated his entire military strength. His forces are corrupt and have almost no C3I. He miscalculated the resistance of the Ukranians who don't care to be Russian again. He underestimated the global support for their cause.

I hope we are helping them as much as possible. I really wish we had done so before Putin ever invaded, saving so many lives.

[catmanjack]

I wish so as well, I think how could you allow the innocent people die like that.

[bigsky]

We have not had a good foreign policy since George HW.

[CitizenBBN]

We have not had a good foreign policy since George HW.

Trump had the right idea with Ukraine and early (Year 1) went the right way, but I have no doubt many in DC cautioned him to go "all in" given the regime corruption, which is just a matter of daily life in that part of the world and most of the world.

Biden was an utter disaster following up on Trump's relative inaction in year 2-4 by being so weak that it has dared our enemies to advance. Afghanistan is the reason Ukraine is now suffering.

[CitizenBBN]

I wish so as well, I think how could you allow the innocent people die like that.

It sickens me. I have no desire to be the world's policeman but when we can undermine Russia and totalitarianism in Eastern Europe without costing US lives and we don't do it, it makes me ill. I feel personally guilty and embarrassed for our people.

The only good news is this has decimated Russian power and driven even Finland into the arms of NATO, so it may hopefully save some lives elsewhere. Small comfort but at least some.

Our withdrawal from Afghanistan, once again the US leaving our allies to the worst of fates as we have done over and over, makes me ashamed to be American. we should never leave anyone behind, be it our own or those who fight with us. It is the height of un-Americanism to do what we did, at least my vision of what America means.

[Catonahottinroof]

I’m waiting for the nitwittery in Washington to once again lecture me on my carbon footprint, while they are egging on a Russian nuclear strike in Ukraine……smh

[suncat05]

"IF" Russia uses a nuke in Ukraine, I have real concerns that this escalates quickly into something that will hurt the whole world. And I am most concerned that, as Catonahottinroof so aptly described, that the nitwittery in D.C. will do everything wrong, for the wrong reasons, and obtain the worst possible results for the American people because of their lack of mental aptitude and idiocy regarding policy.

In other words, I just don't trust this group of morons to protect us against imminent threats. Need proof? Afghanistan withdrawal.

[catmanjack]

Honestly the world should have already taken Putin out.
US giving 13 billion to this lost cause.

[CitizenBBN]

Cause isn't lost. In fact if one didn't care about the horrible atrocities committed on the Urkanian people this has actually been a boon for undermining Russian power and influence. Their military has been shown to be corrupt and feckless, Putin's position is less tenable, and the world is increasingly willing to isolate his regime. It wasn't worth the price of millions of Ukranian lives of course, but it's been a horrible blunder for Russia and Putin's dreams of empire.

If Russia were to use a tactical nuclear device, the response is not to escalate with nuclear weapons or even US troops but to let Putin hang himself with it. Economically it would give the pressure needed to get about everyone but china to stop relations and trade with Russia, and would let the US and NATO offer weapons of much more power short of nuclear devices to Ukraine, including long range missiles and more tactical weapons and even possibly aircraft.

Russia would be hanging itself in the world community, and they know it. Europe would have the popular support to cut off all trade and endure energy hardship in the short and medium term b/c politically they would support responding to Russia. It may even allow nations to put pressure on the Chinese to back off of their support. It would be a massive issue politically across the globe.

[Catonahottinroof]

I think the Russian government knows it would spell doom if they use a nuke, but Putin is not right at the moment. He has gotten rid of several people close to him for fear of being poisoned. He's nuts I do believe and just may be nuts enough to pull the trigger to make a point.

[CitizenBBN]

No guessing what Putin will do, no doubt.

I will say it's very possible his commanders and troops simply won't carry out that order. Anyone sane in that chain of command knows the ramifications for Mother Russia. Of course there are hardliners there who don't see it that way.

All of this could have been avoided if the US and NATO had been more aggressive in supporting the Eastern European nations from the outset. I get why they had reservations, esp in Ukraine which was rife with corruption and at times seemed poise to become a Russian ally like Belarus, but this is why you have to use economics and diplomacy to create that hegemony.

We were very effective in Poland and were more aggressive in the Baltic States, and now we may see the end of Findlandization finally, but we were less so in southern regions like Ukraine, which are vital strategically.

The single biggest failure was failure to respond to the annexation of Crimea under Obama. Another milquetoast move followed up by the most milquetoast POTUS (Biden) since Carter with the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan, and you have the perfect formula to wave a big red flag in front of a Russian bull and zealot.

Zelensky wants Crimea back, and he has a shot at it in the long run. Russia is weakening itself in this conflict, they may reach a point where they have little power to keep Crimea. I imagine that will require the internal ouster of Putin however.

[suncat05]

Far away hazy look here, but just a thought: if this war continues and weakens Russia further, to the point of being nearly militarily impotent, it opens the door for China to do something nasty to Russia. Like invading and trying to take possession of Russia's vast stores of oil and natural gas. Which the Chinese covet.
The Chinese have the military to do it (although I have serious concerns here about their real world military capabilities) and it would pretty much destroy any alliance between Russia & China (which, in my mind, is not a bad thing). And it would strain both to the point of breaking.
It's a win for everyone in the Pacific Rim, in Europe, and for the U.S.

But it will cost everybody in the world on a large economic scale. The rich will get richer, and the poor will become even more economically impoverished.

[CitizenBBN]

China wants Taiwan first and foremost. That is goal #1 for them, and achievable as Taiwan has no nukes. Russia has nukes, they will never invade directly.

Then it's on to dominating South China Sea and trying to intimidate South Korea, Japan, Phillipines, etc.

The big question is what do we do about Taiwan. I never agreed with the One China policy, and have to wonder what happens if we break with it. Very dangerous, the Chinese and Xi in particular has a real sense of what we once called Manifest Destiny. They call it "All Under Heaven", and Heaven for them and Xi has expanded past China's past definition of the relevant world to include a lot more territory.

[suncat05]

Oh, I've never doubted for a second that they won't move on Taiwan. And I hope whenever they make that move that I am not traveling in the region, nor any of mine, or any of ours here.

I'm not buying all of the handshakes & smiles that the Russians & Chinese are publicly putting forward these days. Russia has what China wants, and somewhere along the way the Chinese are going to make a move for it.

And I am still not convinced that the Chinese military is anything to be concerned about besides being huge in numbers. Or that much of their military equipment will work as it should when it gets down to the real nitty-gritty. Their dust up with India a couple of years ago didn't end in their favor.

[CitizenBBN]

If their military equipment is made with the same quality as all the crap we get from them on Amazon, they are in trouble. lol.