Way too early Election Results Prognostication Thread

[VirginiaCat]

Ok, we are 28 days out from midterm election.

Nationally, we have 8.5% inflation, Soaring Crime Rates, Jobs open but at costs employers cannot afford to fill, and a dropping work ethic. We also have women worried about thier personal choices related to what they see a their body and their choices (I will not get into why is the "choice" made by the man when he decided to have sex but the choice for the woman is extended beyond that....)

So, I belive the GOP will end up with 225 House Seats. Very clear majority.

I think Senate ends up 51-49 GOP but could go as high as 53 47 GOP. Walker is hurting in GA and that should have been low hanging fruit. Vance is like a limp rag. Both may not get wins. But I think Nevada and maybe even New Hampshire are really in play and Arizona is going to flip to GOP.

If GOP gets GA, PA, OH, AZ, and NV look out.

If we get Senate, I would write into law somehow that all SCOTUS candidates must have a 60 vote minimum to become a SCOTUS.

[bigsky]

GOP wins house, loses Senate.

Biden or Harris, one or the other, does something and resigns after the election if both sides go GOP.

Montana contributes one of each party to the House, effectively cancelling itself out with our new seat in the House. Way to go, voters!

[MickintheHam]

GOP wins house, loses Senate.

Biden or Harris, one or the other, does something and resigns after the election if both sides go GOP.

Montana contributes one of each party to the House, effectively cancelling itself out with our new seat in the House. Way to go, voters!

You make an interesting point on Harris and Biden. My take has been the only way out of the Presidential succession mess is for Harris to be enticed to resign and replace her with the person the Dems believe could win in 2024. Then either ride it out with Biden or have him resign and let the new VP become President before the election.

The glitch is if there is a 50-50 split in the Senate after mid terms or there is a GOP majority. There is no one to cast a tie breaker vote in the case of approving a new VP. In such case the office could remain vacant if it is a party line vote. It's an interesting Constitutional issue.

[VirginiaCat]

Senate now looking pretty clear to have AT LEAST 51 GOP. House may not be over 235 GOP.

[suncat05]

Early voting started here in Brevard County this past Monday. The Boss & I have already voted and struck our blow for the Republic!!

[dan_bgblue]

That makes 3 of us from this community.

[VirginiaCat]

Early voting started here in Brevard County this past Monday. The Boss & I have already voted and struck our blow for the Republic!!

That makes 3 of us from this community.

My vote was cast last week in VA. I will be in Scottsdale on Election night. I hope AZ is painted RED!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Doc]

I voted yesterday. Now my standard answer to the campaign text.messages is

I already voted. If he is a Republican, he got my vote. If he is a democrat, pound sand

[bigsky]

Argh! to the horrible Georgia and Pennsylvania senate races.

[VirginiaCat]

GOP leaders seem pretty confident in NV and GA? Not sure why those 2. Cannot PA may be a loss to a person who in no way can actually eloquate as a Senator needs to do.....

[dan_bgblue]

Are they still confident of the outcome in Arizona and Ohio?

I think they get PA, but it is a quirky state based on Philly.

[bigsky]

I think the NV race is blue.

[MickintheHam]

I think the NV race is blue.

It’s hard to beat the machine in NV. Still hoping, but I’m not optimistic. Hoping to see a Republican Senator from AZ.

[bigsky]

AZ races are whoopin it up! Here in Houston, watching some news and the political ads, Beto has a very good nicely sincere ad out, just he himself talking like a human being. All the other ads from both sides are Alinsky anything goes horror

[VirginiaCat]

*The Independent dropped out and endorsed Masters. He was carrying anywhere from 1%-5% support depending on poll so if that goes to Masters, he chould pull out AZ.

Fun fact, I will be in Scottsdale on Tuesday!

[CitizenBBN]

As a Libertarian I hate that they need to drop out, but they need to drop out and endorse GOP candidates in these critical races.

[VirginiaCat]

As a Libertarian I hate that they need to drop out, but they need to drop out and endorse GOP candidates in these critical races.

Chuck, I am there with you. But I am not Lib enought to want it to hurt so much the PRogressives win.

[CitizenBBN]

My quick crystal ball:

GOP does well today, and Dems realize their message is garbage. GOP may even make gains in 2024 b/c Dems are so stuck in this woke fantasy world where things like gas prices and food shortages aren't the real priorities.

But long term its probably over. The Left basically controls education top to bottom, they are now heavily involved in destroying/refocusing the military to their side (won't work well, we will just have a joke of a military), and they control media other than now Twitter and Fox news. In the long run without wholesale changes like school vouchers to break the education monopoly and forcing free speech on social media by law, and probably returning to pre-Reagan regulation of media so it is not so concentrated, I see little long term hope.

There's a chance, but it's slim.

[VirginiaCat]

Boy, was I way wrong.

[bigsky]

We got both GOP in the House of Representatives. Took a couple of days in the west where I wrongly predicted D

[dan_bgblue]

Good on the folks in Montana!!