General COVID vaccination thread

[PedroDaGr8]

OK time discuss misleading data analysis and fear mongering about the vaccines. There has been a LOT of discussion by anti-vaxxers and the media about how the Israeli data shows that efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine against hospitalization has dropped dramatically or even potentially rendered it useless. An article over at COVID Data Science digs into this data deeper and explains why this is likely VERY wrong (images taken from this article).

The article starts with the first level of how people are actively misleading via data with the goal of discrediting the vaccines. They will state that more people in the hospital are fully vaccinated than unvaccinated which is true. Anti-vaxxers, in particular, will often state this is a sign that the vaccines aren't working and ignore all other data.



The reason this is misleading is it doesn't take into account the fact that there are far more people in the vaccinated category than the unvaccinated category (78.7% of their population is fully vaccinated); this fallacy is called the Base Rate Bias. If we adjust for the base rates of the population we get a picture which is notably closer to the truth:



Many anti-vaxxers and journalists alike have been using this statistic to claim the vaccine efficacy is dropping rapidly over time (Israel was the first to do wide spread vaccination). . If we split things out by age (which is a known factor), then we see a suddenly better picture:



The truth is, this is just an example of Simpson's Paradox (where confounding variables cause a different result than the truth). This image shows how breaking populations out into confounding groups can more accurately represent the results:



In fact, if we break it out into a number of smaller age groups, we get the following:



Which shows essentially NO decrease in efficacy at all! This is very much in line with the data seen in other parts of the world which show little decrease in effectiveness against hospitalization/death with either mRNA vaccine.

[Catfan73]

Exciting developments!

https://news.virginia.edu/content/on...WzNUVHbEr7egpc

[bigsky]

That Va study must be the Legendary Omega vaccine, man?

Seriously, the report from dukegirl’s daughter now ond her 2nd deployment with the army in lousiana is that hospitalized patients are unvaxed. Part of that is the population bias talked about above,I guess, but the end result is middle aged unvaccinated sedated people dying alone on ventilators. I report, you decide.

[CitizenBBN]

That Va study must be the Legendary Omega vaccine, man?

Seriously, the report from dukegirl’s daughter now ond her 2nd deployment with the army in lousiana is that hospitalized patients are unvaxed. Part of that is the population bias talked about above,I guess, but the end result is middle aged unvaccinated sedated people dying alone on ventilators. I report, you decide.

Everything indicates those who are hospitalized are well over 90% unvaccinated, maybe 98% or more.

Just get the damned vaccine and move on. Half the country has taken it with minimal side effects thus far, and in fact the tech on which it is based has been years in the making. I get being hesitant, but clearly with delta the time to act has arrived. Enough people have had it, and while long term epidemiology won't be available, the risk of that versus the risk of Covid makes the decision clear enough.

[bigsky]

Yep, At this point, get the now approved Pfizer or J&J if you’re hesitant. If you’ve had covid and recovered, I buy the natural immunity argument, and there are those with certain diseases whose doctors prohibit the vaccine, but if they are 10% of the reluctant I’d be surprised. Otherwise time to go get jabbed.

[bigsky]

Just to reiterate, unvaccinated, dying alone and sedated and unaware, on a ventilator, isn’t “freedom”. But the on the ground report from Louisiana is that is exactly the situation of those packing into the gulf coast hospitals.

[VirginiaCat]

Exciting developments!

https://news.virginia.edu/content/on...WzNUVHbEr7egpc

ok, this is really cool how they are doing this.

[Darrell KSR]

Exciting developments!

https://news.virginia.edu/content/on...WzNUVHbEr7egpc

ok, this is really cool how they are doing this.

Ditto. That would be a game changer.

[PedroDaGr8]

Everything indicates those who are hospitalized are well over 90% unvaccinated, maybe 98% or more.

Just get the damned vaccine and move on. Half the country has taken it with minimal side effects thus far, and in fact the tech on which it is based has been years in the making. I get being hesitant, but clearly with delta the time to act has arrived. Enough people have had it, and while long term epidemiology won't be available, the risk of that versus the risk of Covid makes the decision clear enough.

Just to reiterate, unvaccinated, dying alone and sedated and unaware, on a ventilator, isn’t “freedom”. But the on the ground report from Louisiana is that is exactly the situation of those packing into the gulf coast hospitals.

Pretty much end of thread.

The vaccine is safe, it is effective, it saves lives. Is it perfect? No. Is it far better than catching COVID, no question.

[suncat05]

The Boss and I received our first doses of the Moderna vaccine just this past Friday. We go back for our 2nd doses on 09-17-2021.

I still am not convinced that these vaccines are anywhere close to 100% safe, but we finally relented because of 1) some of the things that our daughter sees in the hospital where she works as a nurse, and 2) even though we both are healthy for our ages.

If the yearly influenza vaccines can't keep you from becoming ill with the flu, then it only stands to reason that these Covid-19 vaccines will work the same way.

[PedroDaGr8]

If the yearly influenza vaccines can't keep you from becoming ill with the flu, then it only stands to reason that these Covid-19 vaccines will work the same way.

I am very glad you and your wife finally got the vaccine.

As I have stated before, the coronavirus in no way resembles the flu when it comes to mutation. The flu is an extremely unique case, it is intrinsically designed to mutate and swap its RNA with other flu viruses; the coronavirus while still having room to mutate does not have that ability.

[dan_bgblue]

Vaccines required, by state law, for students before entering kindergarten or 1st grade,
diptheria, Tetanus, Pertusus, Polio, Measels, mumps, rubella. 90.2% of US children are inoculated for those diseases by the age of 2 years.

Do some adults see that it is OK for the state to mandate inoculations for their children, but do not think the state has the same right when it concerns them?

[Darrell KSR]

I am very glad you and your wife finally got the vaccine.

As I have stated before, the coronavirus in no way resembles the flu when it comes to mutation. The flu is an extremely unique case, it is intrinsically designed to mutate and swap its RNA with other flu viruses; the coronavirus while still having room to mutate does not have that ability.

I know I have super smart friends here, but I really appreciate your ability to take a complex issue and explain it so I (we) can understand it. That's a gift.

[CitizenBBN]

Vaccines required, by state law, for students before entering kindergarten or 1st grade,
diptheria, Tetanus, Pertusus, Polio, Measels, mumps, rubella. 90.2% of US children are inoculated for those diseases by the age of 2 years.

Do some adults see that it is OK for the state to mandate inoculations for their children, but do not think the state has the same right when it concerns them?

This is the part I don't quite get. We have required vaccinations against diseases for a long time.

Now, there have been anti-vaccination movement literally since the first vaccines, but at this point I am surprised at the resistance to this one in particular given that the virus has caused such chaos.

I do think it's due to decades of government and elites lying and manipulating the people of this country to such a degree most simply don't believe anything they are told that they don't care to believe, no matter which side of the political aisle from which they come.

[bigsky]

Citizen: Also luddites who have long preached an anti-science mantra. Also crystals and all the new age healing better than western medicine beliefs. Also, revisionist history, no such thing as genders, CRT, truth is only relative. Also, years of bad food pyramids, medicines approved only to be pulled because of damage, failures in the testing and vetting. Who here took vioxx? Or any of the other medicines now part of class action suits?

What is truth? isn’t just a question for Pilate. It should be a question we should respect and provide answers for, rather than ridiculing those who ask, just for our political reasons (not you). Because many people don’t give it a second thought. Those are truly dangerous.

[suncat05]

This is the part I don't quite get. We have required vaccinations against diseases for a long time.

Now, there have been anti-vaccination movement literally since the first vaccines, but at this point I am surprised at the resistance to this one in particular given that the virus has caused such chaos.

I do think it's due to decades of government and elites lying and manipulating the people of this country to such a degree most simply don't believe anything they are told that they don't care to believe, no matter which side of the political aisle from which they come.

This is where I have been for a long time. We've watched and listened to the federal government lie to us in what seems to be forever now. About everything, no matter the situation is big or small, these government cretins will lie about anything, and everything. But the main problem I had with this vaccine situation is the fact that we don't have long term results in relation to it's possible side effects yet. THAT is my main concern.
We sat down and talked with our daughter about all the things she sees at the hospital, and what she thinks as a professional health care nurse. She agrees with us about the long term effects and the lack of that data, but it is clear that this Delta variant is deadly to older people who are not vaccinated, so we relented. That's the long and short of it.

[suncat05]

I am very glad you and your wife finally got the vaccine.

As I have stated before, the coronavirus in no way resembles the flu when it comes to mutation. The flu is an extremely unique case, it is intrinsically designed to mutate and swap its RNA with other flu viruses; the coronavirus while still having room to mutate does not have that ability.

Thanks, Pedro.

[Padukacat]

I am very glad you and your wife finally got the vaccine.

As I have stated before, the coronavirus in no way resembles the flu when it comes to mutation. The flu is an extremely unique case, it is intrinsically designed to mutate and swap its RNA with other flu viruses; the coronavirus while still having room to mutate does not have that ability.

I may have missed this but does this mean we won’t be getting covid shots every year? Is this going to end or keep going, that’s my biggest question.

[dan_bgblue]

Go to the beach and take off your mask

Oh yeah, don't worry about getting THE shot either

[dan_bgblue]

Ivermectin. I ran across some highly agitated conversation about this drug on a message board and I began a search for information beyond the hysteria and the run of the mill pseudo fact based arguments found there. I was introduced to Ivermectin back in the mid 70s when I was working in the agricultural animal health industry, and even back then it was being used in underdeveloped countries as a cheap semi miracle drug used against a few hard to control diseases in humans and was being evaluated as possibly the drug of choice against many other diseases. Back in the day Merck was packaging the drug in a form to be used for humans and another form for animals. Same drug, just different inert ingredients and a much different mg of active ingredient per mg of pill size.

Linkage to scientific research article of it's effectiveness against Covid 19

Please note that this post is not an endorsement of Ivermectin as a treatment for Covid19 and especially not an endorsement of using the drug you can find at the local agricultural feed store. I posted this for discussion purposes only.

[Catfan73]

Moving article from the Herald Leader…
https://www.kentucky.com/article2537...UddOP6xLKNJrX8

[CitizenBBN]

Dan,

This didn't come from me, but there are places you can order just about any antibiotic, etc. that is for "animals", which is the same thing they give to humans.

But I didn't know that, and I never even met your sister.

[bigsky]

Moving article from the Herald Leader…
https://www.kentucky.com/article2537...UddOP6xLKNJrX8

Exactly the in person non media reports from Louisiana. Once you’re intubated, you’re sedated. Isolated, barely aware. Drowning. Don’t lose the internet debate this way.

[KeithKSR]

Dan,

This didn't come from me, but there are places you can order just about any antibiotic, etc. that is for "animals", which is the same thing they give to humans.

But I didn't know that, and I never even met your sister.

Some stuff is identical, other stuff isn’t. Things like amoxicillin are the same, it has the same code on the capsule, comes from the same places that supply the pharmacies.

I’ve heard of vets that write pet owner’s scripts to fill at their pharmacies, because it is cheaper to get off the $4 or $5 pharmacy lists than it was for the vet to fill them.

Ivermectin comes in a number of different forms and formulations. When we had horses we gave them the paste type, my daughter has three alpacas and they get one injection a month. With all the different formulations I wouldn’t take it.

[CitizenBBN]

Some stuff is identical, other stuff isn’t. Things like amoxicillin are the same, it has the same code on the capsule, comes from the same places that supply the pharmacies.

I’ve heard of vets that write pet owner’s scripts to fill at their pharmacies, because it is cheaper to get off the $4 or $5 pharmacy lists than it was for the vet to fill them.

Ivermectin comes in a number of different forms and formulations. When we had horses we gave them the paste type, my daughter has three alpacas and they get one injection a month. With all the different formulations I wouldn’t take it.

Oh I'm not advising it. They have clamped down on it a lot as well over the years. Just an interesting back door to me.

[Catfan73]

If someone wants to take livestock dewormer, have at it but the side effects might be a lot worse than with the vaccine. We do have lots of horse barns and could probably open some stalls up to relieve the overcrowding in the hospitals.

[KeithKSR]

If someone wants to take livestock dewormer, have at it but the side effects might be a lot worse than with the vaccine. We do have lots of horse barns and could probably open some stalls up to relieve the overcrowding in the hospitals.

I wouldn’t advise the livestock version, but the US has 6 times the death rate that India has.

[dan_bgblue]

You are not a horse and you are not a cow

Linkge:: India efficacy studies, results from clinical trials, and suppression of clinical trials by Wiki and the NIH and CDC

https://www.thedesertreview.com/opin...1ae87887a.html

[dan_bgblue]

Wikipedia is not allowed to publish the recent meta-analysis on Ivermectin authored by Dr. Andrew Hill. Furthermore, it is not allowed to say anything concerning www.ivmmeta.com showing the 61 studies comprising 23,000 patients which reveal up to a 96% reduction in death [prophylaxis] with Ivermectin.

What does this mean? Does it mean that the vaccines available in the USA are wonder drugs as they have a 98.2% survival rate, or does it mean that that the overall health care in India is 2.2% worse than it is in the USA, and survival rates in the USA would be around 98.2% with no Vaccine as Ivermectin used as a treatment of Covid 19 is a hoax?

[Catfan73]

My brother in law posted this on his Facebook page this morning. He’s an epidemiologist, works at East Carolina U.

I think I've heard every excuse and argument there is for not getting the vaccine. Bottom line - the vaccines available in the U.S. are very safe and highly effective at preventing severe illness. They are not 100% effective but I can't think of any vaccine that is. They work exactly as they should and depending on your viewpoint can be viewed as a fantastic scientific success story and/or a wonderful gift from God. Either way -- I'm ecstatic that they work so well. What I'm frustrated about is the fact that so many have dug their heels in simply to dig their heels in and refuse. Everybody who gets the current virus is giving it to about 7 others on average. So, each person is building their own "pyramid of infection". And even if the person at the top of the pyramid has a mild or asymptomatic infection, it's guaranteed that some people in their pyramid below them will need to be hospitalized and some will die. So even if you don't get the vaccine and have no problems with COVID in the future, you are still wrong. You can never say you were right just because you had an easy time with COVID. You will have spread the virus and your pyramid of infection will contain people who you may or may not know who became extremely ill and you will even be responsible for a few who died. In addition, every infected person gives the current virus strain a chance to mutate and get stronger so this whole mess can definitely get worse. So if you are not vaccinated yet, please stop being stubborn and just help fight this disease.