Per JP Morgan

[VirginiaCat]

the polls seem very misleading..

in PA the R's have signed up over 200,000 MORE new voters than the D's since 2016. A state that Trump won by 45K votes in 2016. That means a 245K margin possibility in 2020. Similar results in NC and FL. To an extent in NM but not enough to overcome the deficit but same is true in AZ per the JP Morgan data.

Additionally, gun ownership trends and stronger backing of African American's is a plus for trump in 2020.


None of this is informing the samples the polls are using....which already under poll R's by about 16%.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...-edge-jpmorgan

[Darryl]

Great minds....

http://www.kysportsreport.com/forums...lection-Chance

Darryl

[KeithKSR]

Polls are still using the 2012 turnout models, an election where many Republicans stayed home or voted for Obama over Romney.

Interesting thing about the polls though, is they indicate that a Trump’s support among Hispanics and Blacks is up significantly.