Long range watch out

[dan_bgblue]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/071455.shtml

[Darrell KSR]

Couple of cousin updates...

Early this morning...

No tv in English to get updates. So we are watching with no volume and Spanish words at the bottom. No WiFi in our room and i am hoping this post goes thru with random phone service.

As we are watching this hurricane hit, it looks like it has moved more and now we will probably be right in the main path but inland. We know leaving Cancun and coming to Valladolid just meant we wouldn’t suffer the surge from the water. We would still be in the path. We did hear it should hit Cancún about 5-8 am now (we had been told it would hit around 2 am).

Follow-up update

Update:
well, we slept in until 8:30. Didn’t hear a think but on the radar the worse hasn’t hit. Since Hurricane Gamma hit just a few days ago, there was already a ton of trees down.
So overall, unless there is more to come, we are doing good.

[KSRBEvans]

Good to hear they're OK so far. Prayers to them and others in the path.

[Darrell KSR]

I think they made a good decision.Screenshot_20201007-140156__01.jpg

[blueboss]

I think they made a good decision.Screenshot_20201007-140156__01.jpg

Id be more worried about them getting off the beaten path in Mexico than some silly cat 4 hurricane.


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[dan_bgblue]

Imo Cat 4 hurricanes are not silly, especially if the shack you are in is not built to withstand trees falling on it in a 120 + MPH wind,, BUT you point about being off the beaten path in Mexico is a valid one and understood.

[blueboss]

Imo Cat 4 hurricanes are not silly, especially if the shack you are in is not built to withstand trees falling on it in a 120 + MPH wind,, BUT you point about being off the beaten path in Mexico is a valid one and understood.

The point is how dangerous Mexico can be when one gets off the beaten path. It was not my intent to diminish the danger a Cat 4 can bring...coming from a guy that dealt with David in 1979, which skirted the entire eastern coast of FL. The area of most of the damage in the US was in between WPB and Ft Pierce. I was in Jensen Beach and that’s all I want to do with a hurricane ever again.Luckily for us David’s Cat 5 status got knocked down to a Cat 2 after hitting the Dominican, Cuba, and Bahamas, and didn’t restrengthen.

I would place the odds of surviving a Cat 4 a lot higher than a group of Americans surviving an encounter with a car full of hopped up Mexican Cartel members on a desolate Mexican street/road.


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[dan_bgblue]

Darrell, I am still pushing it west and right now it is cooperating to a degree. I have gathered another batch of weathered chicken bones and live oak tree fungus to put on the ceremonial fire as prescribed by the elders of the United Houma Nation. If you have a fan in your house, would you please open the windows on the south west side of your home and turn the fan on and make sure it is pointing at about 270 degrees and set it to blow at high speed.

Thank for your assistance. Mick, if you read this and have a fan, please follow the instructions above. Thanks!!

[dan_bgblue]

[blueboss]

Good news, it looks like all the blowing and fan pointing has Delta moving west of New Orleans.

Bad news, it looks like all the blowing and fan pointing is moving Delta to the same track that Laura took. The worst possible place for a hurricane to hit is where one has recently hit while the recovery is still going on.

Hold onto to your butts, the projection is for a cat 3 landfall.

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/...27/085/dbe.jpg


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[dan_bgblue]

In the last 2 days the predicted track has moved about 350 miles west. I am hoping that it does not stop shifting west. Gonna keep watching it thru friday to see what happens.

Keep the fans on boys.

[dan_bgblue]

Does not look like they moved to a dusty crossroads in the jungle.

https://www.sommertage.com/en/valladolid-travel-tips/

[dan_bgblue]

Delta's open water

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...d=11&length=12

[blueboss]

Does not look like they moved to a dusty crossroads in the jungle.

https://www.sommertage.com/en/valladolid-travel-tips/

Glad they made it safely.


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[CitizenBBN]

Id be more worried about them getting off the beaten path in Mexico than some silly cat 4 hurricane.


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I would only go to Mexico if you paid me extremely well, and if I could take copious amounts of lawyers, guns and money. Mostly guns. Like Matrix "guns, lots of guns" levels of guns.

Thinking about retiring to a boat in the Caribbean, pretty sure I may only do that if I can get the permits to mount a Ma Deuce on the top of it. Maybe buy an old small Navy ship, like a destroyer.

[Darrell KSR]

Update:

What a day! We finally got ahold of the hotel we had been mandatorily evacuated from and was told we could come back. So off we went.

The drive back was adventurous. Trees down on the road. Signs down. Many places like a war zone or we thought. Then we made it to the hotel zone (really before the hotel zone) and it was a war zone literally. We knew we had made the right decision leaving.

We where stopped at the first round about and told no one could go in. Looking ahead we could see a mess. Road was barely drivable. We turned around and headed a different way and ran into trees across the road, power lines down, concrete poles holding the lines on the ground, transformers down, just a mess.

We managed to dodge everything to get to our hotel but it was sad to see the devastation. Even the lagoon with boats half sunk and hotels windows blowed out and buildings damaged. Our hotel looked great. Not a tree down, no broken glass just a lot of debris in the pools and around. And sand up around the pool area. Oh, and the college they wanted to evacuate us to has no electric and every telephone pole is down by it. So glad we didn’t go there also.

But we are safe in our room. I cooked dinner, we ate, and walked in the beach. Lots of shells on land and sadly, a lot of turtle eggs all over. Shiloh buried some back under the sand but overall, hundreds torn up and unsavable.

[Catonahottinroof]

St Charles is just now getting all the power lines back up from Laura, especially the surrounding areas away from town. My hope it that this one dies a little bit before it gets to the LA coastline. Folks there have had a bad year.

[blueboss]

Update:

What a day! We finally got ahold of the hotel we had been mandatorily evacuated from and was told we could come back. So off we went.

The drive back was adventurous. Trees down on the road. Signs down. Many places like a war zone or we thought. Then we made it to the hotel zone (really before the hotel zone) and it was a war zone literally. We knew we had made the right decision leaving.

We where stopped at the first round about and told no one could go in. Looking ahead we could see a mess. Road was barely drivable. We turned around and headed a different way and ran into trees across the road, power lines down, concrete poles holding the lines on the ground, transformers down, just a mess.

We managed to dodge everything to get to our hotel but it was sad to see the devastation. Even the lagoon with boats half sunk and hotels windows blowed out and buildings damaged. Our hotel looked great. Not a tree down, no broken glass just a lot of debris in the pools and around. And sand up around the pool area. Oh, and the college they wanted to evacuate us to has no electric and every telephone pole is down by it. So glad we didn’t go there also.

But we are safe in our room. I cooked dinner, we ate, and walked in the beach. Lots of shells on land and sadly, a lot of turtle eggs all over. Shiloh buried some back under the sand but overall, hundreds torn up and unsavable.

Certainly a vacation to remember for a life time. Really glad to hear they are safe and sound.


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[dan_bgblue]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/080832.shtml

[dan_bgblue]

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...d=02&length=12

[dan_bgblue]

The system still has a westward component to it's movement (good work Birmingham) but the northward movement has increased a bit. Keep the fans on guys. The latest NHS wind forecast now has the main part of the storm another 75 to 100 miles west of where they had it pegged this morning,

[Darrell KSR]

The system still has a westward component to it's movement (good work Birmingham) but the northward movement has increased a bit. Keep the fans on guys. The latest NHS wind forecast now has the main part of the storm another 75 to 100 miles west of where they had it pegged this morning,

I haven't kept up, but would that put it pretty close to where Laura made landfall? Can those poor folks in Calcasieu Parish and Lake Charles withstand another hit?

[blueboss]

I haven't kept up, but would that put it pretty close to where Laura made landfall? Can those poor folks in Calcasieu Parish and Lake Charles withstand another hit?

I just saw a local weather update on delta, they’ve got it near identical to Laura for landfall and most likely a cat 3.


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[dan_bgblue]

I haven't kept up, but would that put it pretty close to where Laura made landfall? Can those poor folks in Calcasieu Parish and Lake Charles withstand another hit?

Center is just a bit west of there, but not far enough west yet. East west movement has stalled, and I fear it is done with that movement. My main hope right now is a weakening over the next 24 hours.

[blueboss]

The new forecast for the local area here in the Louisville area has delta taking a right a little farther south than originally expected minimizing the amount of rain we’re going to get. Heavier rainfall totals are expected south of I64.

For me that kind of sucks because we could really use the rain. I was hoping for an all weekend soaker. Not only could we use the rain, I was really looking forward to some rainy day naps.


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[dan_bgblue]

According to the wind forecast map, the western movement has stopped.

[blueboss]

Here it comes, looks like the Lake Charles area is the bullseye, same path as Laura. They still have all the debris from Laura piled up, once the wind starts moving that stuff around the danger is going to be magnified...

Oh yeah, nine to eleven feet of storm surge is projected, moving it pretty far inland.


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[Darrell KSR]

Hurricane Delta live...guy driving down road, south of Lake Charles right now. Hurricane force winds approaching. Water is about a foot below the road right now. He says he's about to turn back now before it gets over the road.

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1kvJpeoEnRaxE

[Darrell KSR]

The guy and a girl (wife/girlfriend?) in the car. He's getting excited in his commentary, but he keeps saying he's going to be careful. Making me nervous.

[Darrell KSR]

It's Jeff Piotrowski. I don't know if that's anyone "official" or not. Here's a screenshot where he's looking at the weather as he drives. Hurricane is 80 miles southeast of him.

Hurricane Delta Live.JPG