Long range watch out

**dan_bgblue** · 10-02-2020, 01:25 PM

If TD 25 crosses the Yucatan Peninsula without being torn apart by the peninsula and the low mts, then it will enter the Bay of Campeche mostly intact. This time of the year the BOC acts like a washing machine on the spin cycle and TD 25 would have a good chance of becoming a strong TS and heading north or northwest and possibly becoming a hurricane before landfall.

Good idea for anyone with interests on the gulf coast or the east Texas coast to watch this area of weather over the next couple of weeks.

Linkage

**dan_bgblue** · 10-02-2020, 01:30 PM

**Darrell KSR** · 10-02-2020, 03:08 PM

Thanks, Dan. I have friends on the coast, a lot of family in New Orleans, Houma, and South Louisiana, and do work with clients in the Mobile area as well as the Panhandle. I always appreciate these heads up posts. Man, what a 2020 it has been.

**Darrell KSR** · 10-02-2020, 06:04 PM

And for heaven's sake, please leave the good people in the Lake Charles area alone.

**CitizenBBN** · 10-02-2020, 06:11 PM

This is making it harder and harder for me to just sell everything and go live on a boat in the Caribbean. Esp. given the dingy I can afford.

**dan_bgblue** · 10-03-2020, 08:27 PM

**dan_bgblue** · 10-03-2020, 08:32 PM

Looks like the steering winds want to push it to the east which will keep it pout of the BOC blender. Good thing. Hope I do not get up in the morning to see it has decided to go west again

**Doc** · 10-04-2020, 12:36 AM

We are flooding like crazy. My neighbor is building an ark and loading the animals..... damn thing has been dumping water on us for 4 days now

**dan_bgblue** · 10-04-2020, 09:44 AM

**Darrell KSR** · 10-04-2020, 06:35 PM

TD 26?Screenshot_20201004-183547.jpg

**dan_bgblue** · 10-04-2020, 07:31 PM

Well TD 25 is supposed to turn west some time tomorrow and slowly way make it's way onto the north west coast of Mexico.

As for 26, have to see what happens when it slips between the Yucatan and Cuba. The projected track on your map is playing the most likely odds, but history says that this time of year when dealing with GOM storms it is best to wait to see where the steering winds will take it when they come into play. If no steering winds come into play then the track as shown is most likely but it will be a slow run to the coast.

**dan_bgblue** · 10-04-2020, 07:46 PM

Have to hope the cold front dropping south out of Canada gets in place to push the spinner to the east before it gets to the coast. Other than that there is no sign of steering winds turning TD 26.

**KSRBEvans** · 10-05-2020, 08:27 AM

**KSRBEvans** · 10-05-2020, 08:28 AM

Sally formed closer to the Gulf coast but it was also initially projected to hit southern Louisiana before it moved east. Hope the Louisiana folks miss this one, too, but I'm worried for the folks in the Flora Bama area who are still recovering.

**dan_bgblue** · 10-05-2020, 11:16 AM

**Darrell KSR** · 10-05-2020, 01:00 PM

Originally Posted by KSRBEvans

Sally formed closer to the Gulf coast but it was also initially projected to hit southern Louisiana before it moved east. Hope the Louisiana folks miss this one, too, but I'm worried for the folks in the Flora Bama area who are still recovering.

Alabama just reopened the beaches from Sally. Certainly don't need a repeat. Of course, I'm always concerned about New Orleans. This one doesn't seem like it's going to be a monster, but a hurricane is a hurricane.

**blueboss** · 10-05-2020, 02:10 PM

Soggy business...

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**Darrell KSR** · 10-05-2020, 07:01 PM

Ugh.

**KSRBEvans** · 10-05-2020, 08:36 PM

Originally Posted by Darrell KSR

Alabama just reopened the beaches from Sally. Certainly don't need a repeat. Of course, I'm always concerned about New Orleans. This one doesn't seem like it's going to be a monster, but a hurricane is a hurricane.

Yep. The really destructive part of Sally was it was moving so slowly--really churned.

**dan_bgblue** · 10-05-2020, 09:16 PM

Darrell, I have done my best to blow it west to come ashore 50 or so miles south of Brownsville, but I am losing my battle.

**Darrell KSR** · 10-05-2020, 10:11 PM

Originally Posted by dan_bgblue

Darrell, I have done my best to blow it west to come ashore 50 or so miles south of Brownsville, but I am losing my battle.

Appreciate the efforts, Dan!

**KSRBEvans** · 10-06-2020, 11:02 AM

Up to category 4 now, still projected for Louisiana:

**PedroDaGr8** · 10-06-2020, 11:26 AM

Originally Posted by KSRBEvans

Up to category 4 now, still projected for Louisiana:

From 35mph to 130mph in only 30 HOURS! This storm intensified from TD to CAT 4 faster than any storm in recorded history. It will likely break the record for TD to CAT 5 too (currently 54 hours).

**Darrell KSR** · 10-06-2020, 12:27 PM

Locally I have seen several high school football games moved from Friday to Thursday night in anticipation of bad weather. Of course, we are not going to get anything like the people involved when a hurricane makes landfall, but lots of rain makes a miserable experience.

**Darrell KSR** · 10-06-2020, 12:31 PM

Originally Posted by KSRBEvans

Up to category 4 now, still projected for Louisiana:

My sister-in-law and several nieces and nephews live in Houma, Louisiana. That is a tad bit east of the expected landfall. Home is not on the coast, but it is not far away. They have never had a real problem with a hurricane, though. I mean, not like devastation type problems.

Anyway, if it holds its projected line, that might be as good as it is going to get. It is east of the Lake Charles area that was devastated a few weeks ago, and west of New Orleans (and even west of Houma). And it leaves the poor people from the Alabama Gulf Coast alone (from the devastation, at least).

I am sorry, I do not mean to make light of where it lands. It will be a problem for wherever it goes, and I should not be so myopic.

**dan_bgblue** · 10-06-2020, 01:35 PM

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/061454.shtml

**Darrell KSR** · 10-06-2020, 02:08 PM

My cousin Debe and her husband are currently in Cancun. Just posted that they have a mandatory evacuation, but they felt safer at the hotel. Said they would probably be going to a local college to ride it out.

**PedroDaGr8** · 10-06-2020, 03:52 PM

Ouch, this is NOT a storm I would want to ride out. If they could get a flight they should. Otherwise if their resort has a bunker then they should go to that.

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**Darrell KSR** · 10-06-2020, 04:47 PM

From her Facebook post 3 hours ago:

So this is our situation:

We are in Cancun Mexico and Hurricane Delta is expected to hit Cancun directly as it works its way to a category 4. We have called hotels in surrounding areas and they are full.

So, they say it is a mandatory evacuation 10 minutes ago. Really. People are swimming in the pool and it is evacuating. We kinda feel the safest just hanging here at the hotel.

So, we might be heading to the local college. Not sure how we feel about that with Covid!! All crammed into a college gym.

Tick tock, tick tock, tick tock,

**Darrell KSR** · 10-06-2020, 07:31 PM

They went West. Update.

Edit... There are 7 of them together. Geez.

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