So...how and when does this end?

[ukpumacat]

I have some thoughts on this. But am very interested in your thoughts.
We cannot be on lockdown forever. So, how and when does this end?

[Catfan73]

I think what’s probably going to happen is once new cases and deaths take a noticeable dip on the graphs things will ease up. People will gradually be allowed to go back to work, causing the graphs to look like a roller coaster until we have a treatment or a vaccine. People are already getting stir crazy.

[kingcat]

I think the vaccine is a little closer than we are hearing. One company claims five months from distribution of an already promising one being tested. Treatments will improve, and fear will subside.

Also, although I know there will be a peak in rural America I do not believe it will be as devastating as some fear. But I certainly fear for the metropolitan areas when fear and panic are replaced by anger and frustration.

I sense another real problem begins when city populations begin to try and relocate to rural areas, and as the economy worsens. When the money runs out for the poor, and it will quickly, what else are they to do? City life is going to be unmanageable for a while.
I'm concerned there comes a point when voluntarily staying home wont be an option for hundreds of thousands of people.

[KeithKSR]

Everyone gets the chloroquine/Zithromax cocktail and most of the virus is killed off within two weeks of giving it to everyone.

[CitizenBBN]

When I wake up. This is all a bad dream, right? I've been walking around without pants like most all of my dreams so it must be a dream.

[Padukacat]

My guess is in a month the curve goes down in nyc and some other big cities, about the time it’s starting to peak in rural America, we all go back to work and it spreads more and kills a lot of people, mainly older ones or those in poor health, we keep comparing the numbers to other diseases and say why are we focusing on this one, ignoring the whole idea this is something we actually have some control over...ie im not going to die of aids, starvation, poor water sources,malaria, etc. the country will be even more divided by party lines with one side saying we can’t run and hide forever and we have to restart the country and the other side blaming them for being careless and killing many because they handled it wrong, all to control some other personal and likelY financial agenda masquerading as good leaders who only want the best for their country. Then it will go away, we will find a vaccine, put measures in place to handle the next outbreak which will be outdated in a hundred years when it comes.

All that being said it seems like we’re doing the right thing, hunkering down as best we can for as long as we can until we just have to get back out. It will help but we can’t do it forever.

[CitizenBBN]

It's a holding maneuver. You retreat slow, you blow the bridges and burn the fields as you go, slowing the enemy down until you can counter attack.

It ends when we get vaccines and treatments enough to bring this back into the range of a normal flu. We can with testing maybe target our restrictions better so the economy doesn't disappear, but in the end we won't get away from this concern until we have some solutions. Right now all we have is a holding action.

[MickintheHam]

You are just not going to see much of the virus in rural America. They have a jump on controlling their circumstances. The spread is a function of population density and population mobility. This ends with a vaccine. That is 5-6 months out. Effective treatment will allow gradual resumption of daily activities. Large crowds will be banned until the vaccine is in use.

The only thing comparable to this pandemic, that I can remember, was the outbreak of polio in the late 40s and 50s. Mothers were panicked that their kids would contract poliomyelitis. It went on for about 10 years of my life. Finally, in about October1960, I remember lining up at my elementary school to get the vaccine. It was administered on a sugar cube. I just remember how long the lines were and how difficult as a young lad it was to stand there. The whole country was vaccinated. It took 3 Sundays in each community to get the vaccine administered to everyone.

I expect some type of massive vaccinations, similar to what happened with polio. It's the only way I believe it will be eradicated, but it will take someone with medical training to provide a better opinion.

[dan_bgblue]

1st grade for me and I do remember the sugar cube. Line was not that long as it was a rural school and probably had about 200 students in the 12 grades.

[kingcat]

Around the time I started school a nice lady came to our house and administered those vaccinations.
I missed a lot of school with what are now believed to have been misdiagnosed ear infections that would never completely clear. A double shot of penicillin at least every other week until I escaped puberty.
Local doctor said I held his office record for high fever for many years around this part of the country at 105.5

I liked the sugar cube thing.

[kingcat]

This sounded optimistic..article from Newsweek.


Experts from the Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF) carried out calculations using data from the Civil Protection Department on the rate of infections, concluding that the disease could be practically eliminated in the country within the period May 5 to May 16.
"We are going in the right direction and we must not change our strategy in the least. The return to normality will be a gradual process... the goal is to contain the situation now, and prevent further epidemic outbreaks, such as those seen in the North, and restore as much as possible a normal lifestyle," Higher Health Council president Franco Locatelli told reporters at a press conference.


By analyzing the Civil Protection data, the EIEF team also came up with estimates for when each region of Italy may be free of new COVID-19 cases. The estimates—based on data collected up to March 29—are as follows:
Trentino-Alto Adige (April 6)
Liguria (April 7)
Umbria (April 7)
Basilicata (April 7)
Valle d'Aosta (April 8)
Puglia (April 9)
Friuli Venezia Giulia (April 10)
Abruzzo (April 11)
Veneto (April 14)
Sicily (April 14)
Piedmont (April 15)
Lazio (April 16)
Calabria (April 17)
Campania (April 20)
Lombardy (April 22)
Emilia Romagna (April 28)
Tuscany (May 5)
Italy has the second-highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases after the U.S. with just over 100,000 infections, and the highest number of deaths from the disease at over 11,000.

However, the number of new cases reported on March 30 was 4,050—the smallest increase in nearly two weeks and a potential indication that strict social distancing measures are working. Furthermore, the country reported the highest daily rise in patients recovering from COVID-19 at 1,590.


Mike Ryan, a top emergencies expert at the World Health Organization, said that these kinds of measure—a full lockdown was implemented on March 9 in the country—should lead to a stabilization in new infections, although vigilant follow-up will be required.
"What we are likely to see, if you imagine the lockdown and stringent measures in Italy are now in place 2-3 weeks... we should start to see stabilization because the cases we see today really reflect exposures two weeks ago," Ryan told reporters at a press conference. "So we do hope that Italy and Spain are nearly there on that... And going down [on case numbers] isn't just about a lockdown and let go."
There appear to be signs of hope in Lombardy, the worst affected region of Italy, where lockdown measures seem to be having an impact. The number of confirmed cases suffering from the illness in the region dropped for the first from 25,392 on Sunday to 25,006 on Monday.
"In Lombardy—and especially in the worst-hit areas of Lodi and Bergamo—the number of infectious respiratory events for which regional emergency vehicles have been called is markedly reduced," Locatelli said at the press conference. "Interventions—deployment of emergency vehicles—on the territory have halved compared to March 14-15."

According to Italy's Deputy Health Minister Pierpaolo Sileri, the country could witness "a drop in the number of people infected within seven to 10 days," while Silvio Brusaferro from the country's Istituto Superiore di Sanità told La Repubblica that "we are witnessing a flattening of the curve."
"There are no signs of a descent yet, but things are improving," he said.
Nevertheless, the country extended its lockdown measures on Monday until at least mid-April, with Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte noting that any easing of restrictions would be done gradually to try and prevent infections from rising again.
'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''

World Health Organization advice for avoiding spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19)Hygiene advice
Clean hands frequently with soap and water, or alcohol-based hand rub.
Wash hands after coughing or sneezing; when caring for the sick; before, during and after food preparation; before eating; after using the toilet; when hands are visibly dirty; and after handling animals or waste.
Maintain at least 1 meter (3 feet) distance from anyone who is coughing or sneezing.
Avoid touching your hands, nose and mouth. Do not spit in public.
Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or bent elbow when coughing or sneezing. Discard the tissue immediately and clean your hands.
Medical advice
Avoid close contact with others if you have any symptoms.
Stay at home if you feel unwell, even with mild symptoms such as headache and runny nose, to avoid potential spread of the disease to medical facilities and other people.
If you develop serious symptoms (fever, cough, difficulty breathing) seek medical care early and contact local health authorities in advance.
Note any recent contact with others and travel details to provide to authorities who can trace and prevent spread of the disease.
Stay up to date on COVID-19 developments issued by health authorities and follow their guidance.
Mask and glove usage
Healthy individuals only need to wear a mask if taking care of a sick person.
Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing.
Masks are effective when used in combination with frequent hand cleaning.
Do not touch the mask while wearing it. Clean hands if you touch the mask.
Learn how to properly put on, remove and dispose of masks. Clean hands after disposing of the mask.
Do not reuse single-use masks.
Regularly washing bare hands is more effective against catching COVID-19 than wearing rubber gloves.
The COVID-19 virus can still be picked up on rubber gloves and transmitted by touching your face

[Catfan73]

Even if it’s mostly under control in two or three months it won’t be eradicated. Don’t they say immunity will likely only last for eight months or so?

[Doc]

I appears China has peaked at 2 months and is now in a decline. If that is our test case, then we should be peaking soon.

[Doc]

Even if it’s mostly under control in two or three months it won’t be eradicated. Don’t they say immunity will likely only last for eight months or so?

Swine flu (H1N1) took a year to run its course. That was an INFLUENZA virus as opposed to a coronavirus (which is also why developing a vax for this is more difficult). Not sure where the 8 month duration on immunity comes from but I would not think that is correct. We routinely vax dog for coronavirus (not the COVID-19) and get upwards of 3 years with positive titers. We also vax cats for FIP (a coronavirus) and do so yearly.

[ukpumacat]

Interesting responses. Obviously, none of us can fully know.

I have thought a lot about this and this is my best guess to how this plays out. The absolute key will be testing. That is why I was advocating so strongly for the 30 day national lockdown (which did not happen but close).
We have some of the best Scientists in the world. We have a very motivated President who wants this thing to end. We have a lot of money to throw at the answer.

My best guess is that we continue this "Stay at Home" order until mid-May. I think the end of this 30 days at the end of April will be too soon. Too many "hot spots" will be having their worst days right around that time. But I do think by the end of April there will be a lot of light at end of THIS tunnel (I say this because I think there will be more).

BY then, my hope and guess is that we will have massive testing at that point. We ultimately need two types of tests readily available (and they are both in the works): The 5 min Coronavirus Test (currently being dispersed by Abbott). And the At-home Antibody test (currently being tested by Biomerica as well as others) that tests if people have had it in the past and have immunity.
As soon as we have these two tests, we can begin to get things going again. People will need to test themselves on a consistent basis. IF they have it they will need to quarantine. But with rigorous testing this can happen and as it begins to spread again (which it inevitably will) we can do a much more manageable job shutting it down.

Along with those tests, I expect our Scientists to get back at least one "hit" on treatments they are testing for this. It will not eradicate it. But if we have the right cocktail treatment and can produce it en mass, we will be able to vastly lower the fatality rate (which seems to be hovering around 1% in America). If we can drive that number down, it will lead us to make the decision that its no longer fatal enough to shut down the economy for.
As summer approaches, more and more people will have had it and become immune. And most will just have to test and quarantine when they get it. Hopefully, it will spread slower and not overwhelm the hospital systems (which should be much more prepared). I would guess that large gatherings will be banned for the first couple of months of "normal" and we will see less travel and more people not shaking hands and wearing masks etc for a while.

I could see another temporary "stay at home" in numerous places as it pops up again. But we will be able to do that based on spread and location. At some point, we will be getting closer to that 33% number of people having it and that begins the herd immunity which will slow the spread. As numbers grow, so does herd immunity.

And then of course finally, by the end of the year or beginning of 2021, we should have a vaccine.

[ukpumacat]

I appears China has peaked at 2 months and is now in a decline. If that is our test case, then we should be peaking soon.

Doc, are you and your wife staying healthy?

[Doc]

Doc, are you and your wife staying healthy?

Yep, we are good. Wife is off work as somebody in the office tested positive so she is home (she did not have any contact with him but they closed the office). I am working and am fairly busy, but we are on NO CONTACT. Clients drive up and call. we go to their car and get the pet, do our stuff, call the client and return the pet to the car.

Any effects on your family? No positives, etc....?

[MickintheHam]

Yep, we are good. Wife is off work as somebody in the office tested positive so she is home (she did not have any contact with him but they closed the office). I am working and am fairly busy, but we are on NO CONTACT. Clients drive up and call. we go to their car and get the pet, do our stuff, call the client and return the pet to the car.

Any effects on your family? No positives, etc....?

Good to hear.

[MickintheHam]

Encouraging news from University of Alabama at Birmingham announced this am.. They have developed a nasal spray vaccine. It is being tested on mice. Human testing is about a month away. The researchers are very positive about the tests. There is tremendous competition and cooperation among these research hospitals. It can only result in saving lives.

[ukpumacat]

Yep, we are good. Wife is off work as somebody in the office tested positive so she is home (she did not have any contact with him but they closed the office). I am working and am fairly busy, but we are on NO CONTACT. Clients drive up and call. we go to their car and get the pet, do our stuff, call the client and return the pet to the car.

Any effects on your family? No positives, etc....?

All good here. You had just been quiet as of late so I was starting to worry since you had told us about your wife’s coworker last week. I was about to have Mick start blowing up your phone.

[ukpumacat]

Encouraging news from University of Alabama at Birmingham announced this am.. They have developed a nasal spray vaccine. It is being tested on mice. Human testing is about a month away. The researchers are very positive about the tests. There is tremendous competition and cooperation among these research hospitals. It can only result in saving lives.

Great news.

[CitizenBBN]

we'll get treatments and vaccines a LOT faster than the "usual 12-18 month" timeframe. I'm confident of that much. It won't be 30 days, but it will be far sooner than a year total.

I am glad the death rate is much more in line with what I expected for the US. The 3-4% rates were based on areas without our level of care, and 1% is really pretty good at this point. France and Italy are far worse.

But it ends when we get treatments. I'm betting in 30 days the testing is starting to really roll strong, and in 60-90 we may start to see more focused treatment regimens. Maybe a real vaccine in the 120 day range? That's optimistic, but say 4-6 months? I think we forego the long testing procedures but if testing makes things better maybe a little longer. If it doesn't then they'll push it forward.

[Catfan73]

Swine flu (H1N1) took a year to run its course. That was an INFLUENZA virus as opposed to a coronavirus (which is also why developing a vax for this is more difficult). Not sure where the 8 month duration on immunity comes from but I would not think that is correct. We routinely vax dog for coronavirus (not the COVID-19) and get upwards of 3 years with positive titers. We also vax cats for FIP (a coronavirus) and do so yearly.

That’s with a vaccination though. I was talking about natural immunity after fending it off.

[ukpumacat]

we'll get treatments and vaccines a LOT faster than the "usual 12-18 month" timeframe. I'm confident of that much. It won't be 30 days, but it will be far sooner than a year total.

I am glad the death rate is much more in line with what I expected for the US. The 3-4% rates were based on areas without our level of care, and 1% is really pretty good at this point. France and Italy are far worse.

But it ends when we get treatments. I'm betting in 30 days the testing is starting to really roll strong, and in 60-90 we may start to see more focused treatment regimens. Maybe a real vaccine in the 120 day range? That's optimistic, but say 4-6 months? I think we forego the long testing procedures but if testing makes things better maybe a little longer. If it doesn't then they'll push it forward.

I hope you are right. And I think you are. But some experts are very skeptical.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/31/u...nvs/index.html

[ukpumacat]

we'll get treatments and vaccines a LOT faster than the "usual 12-18 month" timeframe. I'm confident of that much. It won't be 30 days, but it will be far sooner than a year total.

I am glad the death rate is much more in line with what I expected for the US. The 3-4% rates were based on areas without our level of care, and 1% is really pretty good at this point. France and Italy are far worse.

But it ends when we get treatments. I'm betting in 30 days the testing is starting to really roll strong, and in 60-90 we may start to see more focused treatment regimens. Maybe a real vaccine in the 120 day range? That's optimistic, but say 4-6 months? I think we forego the long testing procedures but if testing makes things better maybe a little longer. If it doesn't then they'll push it forward.

One more note, unfortunately I was wrong on the current death rate. We were at 1% last week. Now we are just over 2%.
Yes, people have it that are not being tested. But we can’t guess on numbers. And right now we are at 2%. I’m afraid that might get a bit worse as hospitals begin to get overloaded.

I think the increased death rate is due to the fact that many people on respirators take a few weeks to die. And we are seeing that first wave begin to do that.

[Doc]

Swine flu (H1N1) took a year to run its course. That was an INFLUENZA virus as opposed to a coronavirus (which is also why developing a vax for this is more difficult). Not sure where the 8 month duration on immunity comes from but I would not think that is correct. We routinely vax dog for coronavirus (not the COVID-19) and get upwards of 3 years with positive titers. We also vax cats for FIP (a coronavirus) and do so yearly.

I should clarify...when I say we get 3 yrs positive titers, that is on second exposure (vax or dz). When vax the initial vax give us a year, and subsequent boosters give us 3 year antibody production. Also in year one it is a series of anywhere from 2 to 5 vaccines depending on age

[Doc]

That’s with a vaccination though. I was talking about natural immunity after fending it off.

Natural exposure...ie you get the dz, will offer better immunity assuming you survive. Example: many believe if your dog gets parvo as a pup they will have life long immunity compared to the vax which is every one to three years

[UKHistory]

If the surge is as bad as what is being anticipated (is it shock, optimism, or just lack of experience that makes us not comprehend the numbers) we could well have a rate in the 3 or 4 percent range if we calculate COVID related accurately and not too narrowly.

This is where such concerns like states competing against one another really come into play.

We are also starting to hear some of our vulnerabilities concerning military personnel. If cruise ships are breeding grounds then nuclear subs are a true biohazards.

Most of the world is so focused on containment that I don't anticipate a strike attempt against us. In some respects the next few months may be the most peaceful time in the world since the end of WWII. I hope we don't see moves to secure resources through military force with global commerce slowing down.

[Doc]

Encouraging news from University of Alabama at Birmingham announced this am.. They have developed a nasal spray vaccine. It is being tested on mice. Human testing is about a month away. The researchers are very positive about the tests. There is tremendous competition and cooperation among these research hospitals. It can only result in saving lives.

Intranasal vax are a good option since mode of transmission is airborne, and usually quicker onset of antibody production hence protection. Drawback is it likely produces IgA rather than IgG or IgM. IgA is typically shorter acting, likely that 8-9 month duration. An example would be Kennel cough vax for your dog. Some kennels require 6 month boosters every year. It is an IgA producer rather then IgM or G. They do make a injectable form but is seldom used (by me) unless you got a nasty POS dog that won't allow me to squirt stuff up their nose

[Doc]

All good here. You had just been quiet as of late so I was starting to worry since you had told us about your wife’s coworker last week. I was about to have Mick start blowing up your phone.

I blocked Mick.....dude is annoying