I agree with your last sentence, fully and completely. Every other sentence proves my earlier point. Maybe we should just focus on the point of agreement and pray together.Originally Posted by Terry Blue
I agree with your last sentence, fully and completely. Every other sentence proves my earlier point. Maybe we should just focus on the point of agreement and pray together.
That would mean games starting Oct so 12 weeks between Oct 1 and Dec 31. Could still get 10 games in...and the Championship playoffs. Would mess with bowl schedules.
If they go to 8 game season I am guessing tht would be a limit to Conference games only? It could still work.
This is just garbage.
The medical community's primary focus is saving lives, and whatever that takes, so be it. The medical community will always "overreact", and part of that purely comes from society's failure to react, let alone be proactive. I don't even know what you even mean by the "thousands of young men", it is just a stupid, stupid comment. It's also sexist, as women have given their lives too. The most knowledgeable folks will NOT be advising our leaders, to make that claim, you need multiple perspectives, including those that say our greatest economic impact will come from NOT following a suitable social distancing time frame.
Educate yourself on what is happening today. It's not hard, but you have to step out of your bubble.
I think something like this is a best case scenario. This will only happen, though, when we fully understand how the virus spreads. There is no way that unpaid student-athletes are going to be put in harm's way with unknowns. The myth that it doesn't affect young people is just that. We already have data that shows that young people are having irreversible effects to their lung capacity.
I think from all levels, we need to stay calm and see how this plays out. We got a lot of smart people in this world and this country. There is a feeling that we wont’ get this figured out.. we will over come it..
You're right, but people need to realize that it's still getting worse before it's getting better. Sure it's fine to speculate when and how things may return, but just know the facts and have some empathy to the people that are, or may, put themselves at risk. Now is a time for us to support and protect the vulnerable and all unite to do what is necessary to limit the impact while the smart people figure this out. They don't need our noise, our doubts. They need our support.
We'll come out of it when the science catches up to it, and it will.
In science terms it will be very quick, in economic terms not so fast.
It will take first a lot of testing so we can start risk assessment. Then we can let those who are very low risk function more normally. Not completely, but better.
Then we'll need a a) a way to fight the actual infection with drugs and antibodies, and b) a vaccine to lower the rate of infection.
We'll get there, and in medical terms very quick, but unfortunately 6-8 months for a vaccine is warp speed.
So for football that's not looking good. Not that football matters one iota, or any other sport at this point. What matters now is people's health and the economy, and that's the whole list.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
I agree with both of your takes.. when I think of sports, I think of the impact it had to cities revenues, hotels, bars, etc.. those owners, they need sports. For me it’s enjoyment, for them it’s their Job...
Our smart people are going to have to figure out a middle ground help support our medical field and hospitals WHILE having some of the work force phased back in. I’m not sure the answer and don’t pretend to have one lol.. but there has to be a way
Sports has an economic impact, but it's a drop compared to the overall economy.
First, the number of people tied to it is relatively small compared to losing all these other segments of the economy.
Second, the money spent is discretionary so if not spent on sports it's likely to be spent on other things.
And most important, sports and things like church are the obvious large gathering points we can eliminate with the least economic impact.
So they'll be the last to come back.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
Anderwt makes some very good points. Jack, you dream up a lot of things. Save yourself some grief and just don't click on my posts. It's a simple thing. You would think that I hit on your wife or killed your dog or both. I've never said I know everything or don't value others opinion..You also must not comprehend the concept of forgiveness, as you bring up things from years ago. Baghdad in in Iraq, I was brought up around Cropper and don't have a racist bone in my body. Carry on
Couldn't agree more. I'm not getting intel briefs, but from what I'm reading we'll be very lucky if we don't swamp ICU/ventilator capacity in the next 4-8 weeks. It's already getting sporting in NYC, and we shouldn't delude ourselves into thinking it'll be isolated to that area.
Until we get a vaccine, we may see a reduction in number of cases/deaths but it won't end. And it'll recycle back through periodically. (Hong Kong is already seeing a return.) A vaccine is an absolute must or we're just fooling ourselves on the return to large group activities.
Last edited by KSRBEvans; 03-24-2020 at 01:31 PM.
U really think players are going to duke without being paid over Kentucky?--Gilbert Arenas, 9/12/19
18k worldwide coronavirus deaths ytd, 111k from influenza. bloodtest has been developed that can tell whether someone has had it. mortality rate trending to 1% and thats with what's likely a way too low denominator with up to 80% of cases being asymptomatic. China likely well ahead of timeframe that Fauci and others have said for vaccine especially if they've know about it since late fall as some suspect. Its a terrible, terrible virus, but with Italy apparently turning the corner and China and South Korea clearly turning it, barring some major population centers above the 40th parallel, I think we are closer to the end than the beginning.
Oh yeah, as far as football goes, I do expect there to be a season even if its played without fans.
Mitch certainly thinks and Hope's we'll have a season as we've extended the date for season ticket renewals. Said we're looking to celebrate come fall
To add a little more about Italy, they have a data point, NOT a turning of the corner. A day with fewer deaths and cases less than the previous is nice, but definitely no corner turning.
No need to look at Italy, though if you are going to have a narrow perspective on the virus. Just look at NY. They have already breached most of their top line estimates and have not hit their apex yet. Plus, it's not a matter of if they will get overrun from a lack of resources, but when. Really, we already know that.
And we're losing providers to the virus.
It won't be Easter. Unless we're talking about a different year.
Going to take treatment and a vaccine to stop it, and that's months away. Many months.
Last edited by KSRBEvans; 03-24-2020 at 09:44 PM.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
FWIW the Pentagon is planning in a 3 month window. I'm planning for a 2 month short term window but banking on 6 months.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
This is so important. We didn't start shutting stuff down in the U.S. until about March 11, when the WHO made its pandemic announcement and we started seeing colleges/sporting events get postponed and cancelled.
We didn't really get serious about distancing until several days later, so we've really just started.
It will take several weeks to see improvement, and then the improvement we see may be relative (e.g., maybe hospital ICUs don't get totally overwhelmed and they don't have to make triage decisions on who gets a ventilator). We need to dig deep and get a war footing on this situation.
Last edited by KSRBEvans; 03-24-2020 at 09:45 PM.
U really think players are going to duke without being paid over Kentucky?--Gilbert Arenas, 9/12/19
Guys, I know where you are all going. But simply put, neither the US or the World can shut down like this for even 1 month, let alone 3-6. Simply not economically feasible. That would mean the economic cost, including deaths, would outweigh the actual death toll of the virus using the current stats (1.3% death rate and pretty much 99% of deaths limited to over age 55 with co-morbid health issues).
Simply put, if that is the case we have to reverse our response model. All over age 60 and any with co-morbid risk factors are quarantined for the duration. The rest go back to work with social distancing and we deal with the fallout.
Again, it is not fiscally feasible to manage this type of fiscal shutdown for 3-6 months. Just not going to happen.
So basically we are doomed if we have to wait on the vaccine to be released next spring for all to get. That’s a whole year of shutdown of schools, restaurants, manufacturing of cars, construction, etc everything we are doing right now? In 20 days, if we do these things we are doing, 80% will have this virus? Do we really think that? That is 260 million American citizens in a month.
And I want to say, I respect the hell out of ET, Stu, CB.. trying not to say I’m not taking this serious, cause we are in KY and my place of employment. But the Outlook you all give, I just refuse to think that way. We have zero clue what this virus will do in the summer, if it comes back at all in the winter, etc.. if we wait at home to see, the deal is, this country will do things even worse than I can ever imagine, because desperation, not being able to feed your kids, work, etc, I wish you all could see that side of it is all cause to me, that is truly more scary than this virus
You're just wrong and that mentality is dangerous. There are NO experts that say that this is possible without rampant spreading of the virus. It is IMPOSSIBLE to return to life as normal with social distancing. Any premature 'return to normal' will shut down everything for much longer than continue to ramp up efforts NOW to stop the spread.
Now, there is a scenario where people that have been infected and have passed the virus can be integrated back into a normal life and their can be additional assimilation of low risk, low probability people back into the public as well, but not until particular regions and states have passed the apex. Most states have not even started the meat of the ascent yet. Cuomo is right when he said to all the other states that have not had a large impact, "you're next".
You say can't, well it must be figured out. We have to figure out how to make an economy run while we practice 'stay at home'. We can do it.
Extremely well said and I could not agree with the words and sentiment any more than I truly do.Sure it's fine to speculate when and how things may return, but just know the facts and have some empathy to the people that are, or may, put themselves at risk. Now is a time for us to support and protect the vulnerable and all unite to do what is necessary to limit the impact while the smart people figure this out. They don't need our noise, our doubts. They need our support.
seeya
dan
I'm just one stomach flu away from my goal weight.
Ok, lets look at Italy.
I think we can all agree, at least to this point, Italy has been most impacted by COVID-19. Certainly in a western society. Italy has a population of just over 60.48 Million people. It is the 5th oldest country with a median age of about 46.5. It has an advanced medical system, especially in the northern provinces.
They waited a long time to implement measures. Long time for social distancing and even longer until the mandated quarantine measures and limiting travel.
So again, worst possible age group for this virus and maybe not the best response. For a country that was already one of the "PIIGS" counties economically is it likely a fiscal death sentence as well. I suppose we will see.
But, as bad as the above is, to datey they have just over 69K confirmed cases for a current infection penetration rate of .12% (.0012) to date. Of that, they ahve 6800 deaths for an overall death rate of .011% (.00011) to date and an effective rate (of those that contracted the virus) of 9.7%. Of those deaths 99% were to people over age 55 with other co-morbid health conditions. 8200 people have recovered in Italy so more have recovered than died.
Now, we can extrapolate those numbers to the US. They are high. But unless there is information not shared with us about this bug, shutting down for 3-6 months is a cure that is not worth the cost.
Agree 1000%. One example. They shut down Actdive Day Care in KY. Mentally challenged and ill folks are brought during the day to a center where they are fed and their critical medicines are managed. Now they have been ordered closed. These folks have now just been left at home with ZERO support and ZERO follow up as to how they are doing. If someone thinks that won't result in deaths they are stupid. I am for common sense measures but KY now has a hot line where you can INFORM the government on who is not social distancing. Sounds a little like North Korea to me. The violation of the arbitrary taking of property protected by the 5th Amendment by Beshears is ming boggling. You close a florist but leave a liquor stores open and you justify that exactly how??
Lobbyist dollars.
You have skewed the stats. If you want to look at Italy, here are two important things that will be happening in the US in the coming days, a 45% death rate for closed cases and the reality that there are not enough resources to effectively treat those that have the virus. Doctors are making decisions on who can live and who will die. Is that what you find acceptable in the US?
Also, NY alone will pass Italy in the next week or two. We should be focusing on what is NOT being done here to address what we WILL face.
Finally, you don't know what the cost to the economy will be. I completely disregard that we cannot have a functioning economy while limiting social interactions. We are the greatest nation on earth but now somehow are capable of adapting through challenging times?
To stay on topic, though, until there is very little risk, you want unpaid student-athletes subjecting themselves to risks just to please you?
Let me ask you another question, with such shortage of resources to treat the virus, if you were to catch it by getting back to normal, are you going to refuse the resources for your treatment in lieu of someone that did practice the expert guidelines?
Also, let's just assume that the federal guidelines are relaxed, have you factored in the cost in your fuzzy math for the portion of the US that will follow state guidelines or simply just practice common sense measures?
No, we're far from doomed. The biggest mistake made by those who don't believe in free markets is they assume inputs and other variables are fixed. They are not.
Ford is making ventilators. Distillers are making sanitizer. it's amazing how we can adapt and substitute.
As VirginiaCat suggests, we likely will see some kind of more focused "stay at home" that doesn't include those at low risk. Be it by age or testing etc. we'll have to go from this shotgun approach to a sniper rifle in order to just live as a nation and world.
But within that adaptation I expect it to take months to see this through. Not months of complete shutdown but some kind of hybrid where we aren't "normal" but we aren't shut ins either.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
You can't make things and distribute things if we all stay at home. You can't.
Car makers are shut down. Why? B/c you can't make cars by telecommunting.
No we can't let people die from this, but we can't let them die in soup lines either. Easter is just crazy, dumb optimistic, but those worried about the economy aren't wrong. We can't sustain this forever.
What we will do is target better. Testing, statistics, and yes levels of distancing that don't rise to "stay at home". We'll find solutions, but it won't be just throwing up our hands and holing up till winter.
Either that or I'll be really glad my gun and ammo supply is topped off. Think Walking Dead without the zombies.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
I have never seen a flower lover with the DTs nor with a gun in their had to rob the flower store so they can get their fixYou close a florist but leave a liquor stores open and you justify that exactly how??
seeya
dan
I'm just one stomach flu away from my goal weight.
Yep, and that's the truth as to why they're open. Besides keeping the populace happy on their soma, people who REALLY need booze would start showing up at hospitals with withdrawal and further stressing the system, or as you said they'd turn to other means. (that's not a negative re the soma comment btw, I've been known to have a cocktail once in a blue moon)
If this goes 6 months we'll probably see wholesale drug legalization to keep folks under control.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
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