Coronavirus

[Doc]

Italy is to 591 cases per million.....

400 died today. Average age > 80 years

[KSRBEvans]

US has 1500 new cases in the last 24 hours, over 1100 of those in New York (where they may be getting more testing done). Serious/critical cases are up to 64, but that's still low compared with the total number of cases, and CFR has dropped to about 1.5%:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

ETA: Yes, according to this, NY is ramping up testing, which will likely raise their total number of cases:

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/...60862119051264

[UKHistory]

Scary. I have older relatives. My mom is 82, stepdad 82, my aunt is 95 and my father is 81 fighting suffering with dementia.

The notion I could lose my mom especially in this situation is scary for me.

[KSRBEvans]

According to this, New Orleans now has the same number of cases/1,000 as Italy, 3rd highest rate in the country:

https://twitter.com/stinepetrin/stat...18940805582849

[PedroDaGr8]

FYI, testing infrastructure is coming online rapidly. The FDA has given emergency approval to ThermoFisher, Abbott, Hologics, and LabCorp to release their CORVID-19 tests. Additionally, assays based on RT-qPCR do not require FDA approval (provided FDA-approved primers and probes are used) allowing smaller labs to "develop" their own tests.

This is a sorely needed jump in testing capacity. As a result, expect the numbers of positive cases to jump DRAMATICALLY in the next week or two. Despite what the media says, this is NOT an accelerating outbreak. The outbreak already accelerated, this is our testing catching up to reality.

On a related note, expect the mortality rate to drop notably (my wild guess is overall around 1-1.5%). Recent research has shown that around 20% of cases are totally asymptotic but are still highly contagious. Many of these occur in the under 30 age bracket, which isn't too surprising. Additionally, a large percentage of cases are showing very minor symptoms like a dry cough or scratchy throat (but no fever or other symptom). Previous testing would have missed ALL of these individuals, so they are not factored into the mortality rate. They are also not factored into the contagiousness rate, so expect the R0 valule to rise notably as we discover more and more undetected pools of positive cases. Quite simply, this virus is a perfect storm of HIGHLY contagious (far more than the current numbers suggest) and moderately fatal (not so fatal that it burns itself out).

As for those who have heard conspiracy theories about this virus being developed by China. There is ZERO evidence that indicates this virus is man-made and a lot of evidence that it is not man-made. To quote a recent paper in the journal Nature (one of the top journals):

It is improbable that SARS-CoV-2 emerged through laboratory manipulation of a related SARS-CoV-like coronavirus.

Soem of the evidence against it being man-made:

• There are only a few known Coronavirus models on which we can do genetic engineering and this resembles none of them. While this alone is not sufficient, it is evidence against. Furthermore, cutting genes and splicing in new ones is very much like cutting wood and splicing in a piece. It leaves tale-tale signs everywhere and there is no sign of this in the viral genome.
• The receptor-binding protein in SARS binds extremely strongly to the ACE2. COVID19 has a notably different receptor binding protein, which also binds strongly, but which all models predict to have a far less optimal binding affinity. This has all of the hallmarks of nature finding a second optimal solution. If this pathogen were man-made, nobody would EVER choose this version because of its expected binding affinity. Due to the sheer number of mutations possible, you have to use the available tools to weed out most of the junk. Basically, why choose something which for all intents and purposes appears to be less than optimal, if there is a more optimal option already present.
• There is a mutation in the spike protein which is seen in other Coronaviruses but not in the SARS lineage. This mutation introduces a cleavage site in the spike protein. It is unknown at this time what this particular mutation does but it is postulated to increase infectivity.

[CitizenBBN]

Oh, it didn't come from a bio-warfare lab. It came from people eating things no human should ever eat, like bats.

Now that the bureaucracy is out of the way we should catch up in the next couple of weeks on testing I would imagine. And yes the number of cases will mushroom as we find them out there, but as you said that's just getting good numbers, not the infection rate increasing.

[Doc]

In tough times, it is nice to see the Police in Texas stepping up to help the common man!

Texas police department offers to test your meth for coronavirus before you use it

[PedroDaGr8]

Oh, it didn't come from a bio-warfare lab. It came from people eating things no human should ever eat, like bats.

Now that the bureaucracy is out of the way we should catch up in the next couple of weeks on testing I would imagine. And yes the number of cases will mushroom as we find them out there, but as you said that's just getting good numbers, not the infection rate increasing.

I just updated my post with the evidence but even on the most basic level this is a HORRIBLE bio-warfare agent. It is far too contagious (can't be controlled), not nearly fatal ENOUGH, doesn't induce any other symptoms to instill fear (boils, vomiting, diarrhea, etc.).

At this time, consumption is not the only possible source of exposure as bats readily spread coronaviruses via their feces. That being said, we still do not know whether the source of the novel strain was pangolin, bat, human, or some other animal. The paper I linked has a brief but concise section discussing three possible routes which I will paraphrase here:


1. Evolution in an animal species before transfer to humans.
This theory has some notable supporting evidence but has some major issues at this time.

• As published early on, many early cases of COVID-19 were linked to the Huanan market in Wuhan. It is possible that an animal source was present at this location, it is also possible due to how contagious it is the first infected human worked at this location.
• Given the similarity of SARS-CoV-2 to bat SARS-CoV-like coronaviruses,it is likely that bats serve as reservoir hosts for its progenitor. Although RaTG13, sampled from a Rhinolophus affinis bat, is ~96% identical overall to SARS-CoV-2, its spike diverges in the receptor-binding protein, which suggests that it may not bind efficiently to human ACE2. This would make it much harder for it to transfer from bats to humans and even hard for human-to-human transfer.
• Several strains of coronavirus in pangolins share the same mutations in the receptor-binding protein as SARS-CoV-2. That being said, they are far less genetically similar otherwise than RaTG13.
• None of the pangolin or the bat coronaviruses have the cleavage site I mentioned in my previous post. That being said, this could simply be a sampling issues because coronaviruses in bats and pangolins are massively undersamples. Mutations near this cleavage site are very well known, making it likely for this mutation to occur via natural selection.

2. Evolution in humans following animal to human transfer.
Basically, the a progenitor virus jumped to humans and slowly acquired these mutations. Once it acquired these mutations, it would be far more infections. This would allow it to basically explode into a cluster of infections that would be detected by regular surveillance.

• As every sample of SARS-CoV-2 contains the same exact receptor-binding protein mutations and cleavage site mutations, it is likely that all of these are necessary for the virus to become as contagious as it is.
• In particular, because we see no variation in the six mutations in the receptor-binding protein it is likely that these must all occur together in unison for the virus to infect human cells. If this were not the case, then we would expect to see variations in these six mutations in a small percentage of samples. As these mutations are known to occur in pangolins via natural selection, this favors the theory that an as yet unknown coronavirus jumped from pangolins to humans with those specific mutations intact. Since it lacked the cleavage site mutation, it spread slowly in humans until it acquired said mutation and exploded onto the scene.
• The biggest issue with this theory is that we have no evidence of a progenitor virus in humans. Pre-outbreak samples would need to be scanned for similar viruses in hopes of identifying the human proginator.
• A subset of this theory is the theory that multiple animal-->human-->animal transfers occurred, each jump adding additional necessary mutations to increase contagiousness in humans. This could be possible with the bat RaTG13 or another as yet unknown virus. This back and forth jumping has been seen previously in the related MERS virus, in which almost all cases spread from camel-->human-->camel-->human and on.

3. Natural evolution in cell culture and eventual escape from the lab.
This last theory is included for completeness sake. We do know that natural evolution in viruses can occur during cell culture. Quite simply, if the virus is grown in a non-optimal cell culture it can evolve to become better affecting those cell cultures. The fact that pangolins show the same exact receptor-binding protein mutations in the wild, makes cell culture notably less likely (Occam's Razor). Additionally, we have never observed the cleavage site mutation being gained in cell culture in coronaviruses. Furthermore, it would require a high similarity coronavirus to have been isolated (which has never been reported).

Certainly, some will be wondering why do we care about how it evolved...quite simply, understanding HOW this jump occurred can help inform us on how common these kinds of outbreaks will be in the future. If it evolved in animals before infecting humans, it is HIGHLY likely that these kinds of outbreaks will occur again in the future. On the other hand, if it spread slowly in humans until it acquired these specific mutations, then even if repeated animal-human transfers occur, it is very unlikely that this kind of outbreak will occur until these same mutations evolve again. Additionally, it can help provide us with a direction on how to detect these diseases BEFORE they become pandemics. Should we increase funding notably on monitoring and sequencing bat coronaviruses? Should we be scanning other animal sources? Should we be scanning humans for novel variations in coronaviruses? All of these will require resources, which are limited, and all will likely be done to some degree but where we put most of our emphasis will be determined by the answer to this question.

Apologies if I am boring anyone with this more in depth scientific discussion, these are very much the kinds of things that I am passionate about and I have a propensity to ramble on when I get passionate about something.

[CitizenBBN]

I know we don't really know, but in the serendipity of the universe I guarantee nothing this awful came from anything except some mundane "step on a butterfly and change history" thing like someone in Wuhan eating an infected bat. No real science behind that, but arguably some statistics.

The only higher ranking sources claiming it to be a bio agent are a few members of Congress and now the Chinese state officials claiming it got to Wuhan from US military personnel, which has to be the dumbest suggestion of all.

No, this isn't from some secret 300 foot below the ground lab. this is from some toothless hick in Wuhan thinking he was lucky b/c that bat was so easy to catch.

[GhettoBird]

FYI, testing infrastructure is coming online rapidly. The FDA has given emergency approval to ThermoFisher, Abbott, Hologics, and LabCorp to release their CORVID-19 tests. Additionally, assays based on RT-qPCR do not require FDA approval (provided FDA-approved primers and probes are used) allowing smaller labs to "develop" their own tests.

This is a sorely needed jump in testing capacity. As a result, expect the numbers of positive cases to jump DRAMATICALLY in the next week or two. Despite what the media says, this is NOT an accelerating outbreak. The outbreak already accelerated, this is our testing catching up to reality.

On a related note, expect the mortality rate to drop notably (my wild guess is overall around 1-1.5%). Recent research has shown that around 20% of cases are totally asymptotic but are still highly contagious. Many of these occur in the under 30 age bracket, which isn't too surprising. Additionally, a large percentage of cases are showing very minor symptoms like a dry cough or scratchy throat (but no fever or other symptom). Previous testing would have missed ALL of these individuals, so they are not factored into the mortality rate. They are also not factored into the contagiousness rate, so expect the R0 valule to rise notably as we discover more and more undetected pools of positive cases. Quite simply, this virus is a perfect storm of HIGHLY contagious (far more than the current numbers suggest) and moderately fatal (not so fatal that it burns itself out).

As for those who have heard conspiracy theories about this virus being developed by China. There is ZERO evidence that indicates this virus is man-made and a lot of evidence that it is not man-made. To quote a recent paper in the journal Nature (one of the top journals):


Soem of the evidence against it being man-made:

• There are only a few known Coronavirus models on which we can do genetic engineering and this resembles none of them. While this alone is not sufficient, it is evidence against. Furthermore, cutting genes and splicing in new ones is very much like cutting wood and splicing in a piece. It leaves tale-tale signs everywhere and there is no sign of this in the viral genome.
• The receptor-binding protein in SARS binds extremely strongly to the ACE2. COVID19 has a notably different receptor binding protein, which also binds strongly, but which all models predict to have a far less optimal binding affinity. This has all of the hallmarks of nature finding a second optimal solution. If this pathogen were man-made, nobody would EVER choose this version because of its expected binding affinity. Due to the sheer number of mutations possible, you have to use the available tools to weed out most of the junk. Basically, why choose something which for all intents and purposes appears to be less than optimal, if there is a more optimal option already present.
• There is a mutation in the spike protein which is seen in other Coronaviruses but not in the SARS lineage. This mutation introduces a cleavage site in the spike protein. It is unknown at this time what this particular mutation does but it is postulated to increase infectivity.

I suspect the virus has been in Lexington since Mid December.

[ukpumacat]

Well we’re doing better than Italy; confirmed cases aren’t quite doubling every two days but it’s still not good. And then there’s the undiagnosed cases out there

I’m face to face with hundreds of people every day (Amazon) and just waiting for someone to test positive and they shut us down for two weeks.

Just wanted to update this since I posted it several days ago.
We are now def not “doing better than Italy”. We have more than double the cases at the same point in time.

https://twitter.com/nathan510edge/st...568681475?s=21

[Catonahottinroof]

To be “apples to apples”, The UK, France, Germany, Spain and Italy can be lumped together simply to get the population numbers in a similar range to the US....

Just wanted to update this since I posted it several days ago.
We are now def not “doing better than Italy”. We have more than double the cases at the same point in time.

https://twitter.com/nathan510edge/st...568681475?s=21

[ukpumacat]

They've been a lie from day one. How much of one we will never know, but the state media has no interest in accuracy whatsoever. It would be like trusting Pravda during a Soviet food shortage or believing the North Korean broadcasts that people are well fed and happy.

Doctors who spoke out got disappeared. So did a billionaire who called out the response. The Chinese show up and take not just you but potentially your whole family, and you end up dead or in a camp. And some of their camps specialize in non-voluntary organ extractions, so you may prefer a bullet before it's over.

None of that is an exaggeration. It's well documented. There is absolutely no basis to trust anything they say. It may be the truth but if it is it's only b/c that serves the interests of the Party in their view. It's coincidence only.

Whatever anyone thinks of Trump surely we can all agree that letting this nation provide us with our drugs, rare earth minerals and just about everything else is an extremely BAD idea, and maybe we can even all agree that we are being sold down the river by our own corporations and politicians who are more interested in their global profits than in protecting America. They don't give a crap what happens to us as they have their investments all over the globe. As long as the overall is going up, doesn't matter if ours is going down to help others.

But wait....

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/...354923009?s=21

[ukpumacat]

To be “apples to apples”, The UK, France, Germany, Spain and Italy can be lumped together simply to get the population numbers in a similar range to the US....

Unfortunately, we have 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people. Italy has more (3.2) and you can quickly see where we are headed.

[dan_bgblue]

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavi...=pocket-newtab

[CitizenBBN]

But wait....

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/...354923009?s=21

Yeah, he was lied to too, and has as much as said so.

Everything politicians say about China is about as two faced as China, b/c we need them (critically at this point) but we know they are our enemy. How do you negotiate a trade deal with a mortal enemy who you also MUST trade with at this point?

And none of that has anything at all to do with my post, or are you suggesting Trump isn't being tough enough on China when he's in fact been the ONLY politician to be even negative towards them for the last 50 years?

This is the politics thing I just am exhausted by. Trump has danced with China yes, but at least it's a move in the right direction, as opposed to every other Democratic and GOP administration and Congress which has allowed massive technology and intellectual property transfers, a "one China" policy that pushed Taiwan out of the UN, and now a China intent on becoming more influential on the world stage than the US.

But does Trump have anything to do with my point? NO. Not even a little. I'm no Trump worshipper, the guy is boorish and superficial, but as opposed to the other options what are we to do? At least he's done SOMETHING to try to stand up to China. IS it enough? No, but it's more than the alternatives.

OR do you think Biden is going to be much tougher on China? Sanders?

none of them are doing what I would do, which is to build a free trade bloc with every other nation possible and economically isolate China.

BUT, Trump MAY be doing some of that, which is why he was in India. India is a possible keystone member of a new pan-Pacific trade bloc we could form with them, Japan, S. Korea and others.

He is trying to strike a trade deal with INdia, but a lot of the issue is that India is very protectionist in their thinking, so there's a way to go.

China is a deeply dangerous, totalitarian nation. They're North Korea with a much more subtle approach and better PR. Trump has at least moved us more in that direction in policy, if not far enough.

With politics you take what you can get most of the time. Trump is deeply flawed, but he was the best choice compared to a deeply corrupt and self-absorbed warhawk with Hillary, and he's sadly still a better choice than a moronic and possibly mentally failing Joe Biden.

Tell your Democratic folks to nominate someone who isn't an even worse choice than this guy and everyone would be most grateful, me included. But nominate a guy who wants to end fracking, ban fossil fuels, adopt the Green New Deal and pack the SCOTUS and put a guy who wants to confiscate guns in charge of gun policy and no I guess I'll hold my nose again.

[Catfan73]

Rand Paul has tested positive.

[CitizenBBN]

Rand Paul has tested positive.

Not sure how at risk he is after the assault b/c it did break ribs, etc.

[dan_bgblue]

In tough times, it is nice to see the Police in Texas stepping up to help the common man!

Texas police department offers to test your meth for coronavirus before you use it

That is freaking hilarious

[kingcat]

That is freaking hilarious

"we will forget we were ever at your home"

[Catonahottinroof]

Overnight the US has broken 100 cases per million. New York is driving that number currently as they have almost 50% of the US cases.

[CitizenBBN]

Well, politics reared it's head this weekend. Apparently the next aid bill being held up in part for things like solar power tax credits and tougher emissions standards on airlines. If so that's going blow up in Pelosi's face.

The GOP did the right thing by "holding their nose" at the House bill and getting something passed even with some pork riders in there. Now it's the Dems turn to hold their nose and get this done. This was built by 5 fairly bi-partisan committees and has Democratic Senate support, just not the Leadership's.

[Catonahottinroof]

Just for reference, NY state is around 860 cases per million...while the rest of the states in the US are a bit over 60 cases per million.....

[CitizenBBN]

As you said, the problem right now is New York. Very global place with lots of people coming and going, all piled in like sardines compared to most of the rest of the country, and they tend to eat out and congregate in public spaces a lot more as well. Only makes sense it will be harder hit.

[dan_bgblue]

Very global place with lots of people coming and going, all piled in like sardines compared to most of the rest of the country,

And I would be surprised if 20% of them speak and read enough kings English to stay informed of what the hell is going on

[Catonahottinroof]

I find it ironic that some are praising NY governor Cuomo for his talks. He is a great orator for sure. However, he’s done an absolutely piss poor job of limiting contact amongst NY state citizens.

[KSRBEvans]

States with highest positive tests per capita:

3-23-20.jpg

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/...38311519318017

[CitizenBBN]

I find it ironic that some are praising NY governor Cuomo for his talks. He is a great orator for sure. However, he’s done an absolutely piss poor job of limiting contact amongst NY state citizens.

But he seems to care so much we'll give him a pass for the absolute lack of results. We care far more about appearance than results in this country. lol.

Some of it is more testing, but a lot of it is that New Yorkers are simply transmitting it at a higher rate due to their proximity and social behaviors. Some of that he can't help, it's a dense city, but in the end it's not like he's really accomplishing any more than any other governor.

Well more than the Florida governor IMO, but that's not saying much. Andy Beshear is doing every bit the job Cuomo is doing, and he's not alone.

[CitizenBBN]

As I've been saying:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-mar...ciety-survival

In 2 months of this we may stop the virus, but the impact will make the Great Depression look like spring break. If we don't get massive testing ramped up in the next few weeks we may be in a world of economic hurt. There won't be any jobs to come back to by then.

[Catonahottinroof]

Agree. NYC is densely populated. No question. However look at other sates, California has double the population of NY state and 3 very large population centers, in LA, San Fran and San Diego. The cases in California is around 50 per million or so. Many states acted along with the words. NY didn’t....

But he seems to care so much we'll give him a pass for the absolute lack of results. We care far more about appearance than results in this country. lol.

Some of it is more testing, but a lot of it is that New Yorkers are simply transmitting it at a higher rate due to their proximity and social behaviors. Some of that he can't help, it's a dense city, but in the end it's not like he's really accomplishing any more than any other governor.

Well more than the Florida governor IMO, but that's not saying much. Andy Beshear is doing every bit the job Cuomo is doing, and he's not alone.