Epidemiologist tweet thread on positive effect of social distancing in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea and Singapore:
https://twitter.com/cmyeaton/status/1237427026073542657
Epidemiologist tweet thread on positive effect of social distancing in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea and Singapore:
https://twitter.com/cmyeaton/status/1237427026073542657
U really think players are going to duke without being paid over Kentucky?--Gilbert Arenas, 9/12/19
A few hours ago, the nursing home I mentioned provided a more detailed update on the status of all 120 patients. Of the 120 patients, 65 were sent to the hospital. All remaining 55 patients were tested with the following results:
- 31 positive
- 12 pending
- 4 indeterminate
- 8 negative
Of those 65 sent to the hospital:
- 31 are still in the hospital with a positive COVID-19 diagnosis
- 32 deaths (of which 21 are confirmed positive, the rest are the unknown group)
- 2 were transferred/released
This means that out of 120 patients, we have at minimum 83 confirmed cases, 11 possible cases which were not tested post mortem, 4 indeterminate, 12 pending, and 10 negatives. At minimum, this outbreak had an astronomical 70-92% infection rate and, so far, a mortality rate of 30-40%. The latter number will unfortunately likely rise as the virus runs its course.
Extremely bias. Need to look at the sample population. You have an elderly population, likely with the vast majority having pre existing medical conditions. It is not a representative population and would have a much higher mortality and morbidity rate than the general population. If I was an octogenarian in a nursing home with an immune system that was taxed due to other conditions, odds are I would be much more concerned but it hardly is a representative of the general population, and to apply the statistics to the general population is poor scienceOriginally Posted by PedroDaGr8
Last edited by Doc; 03-10-2020 at 08:14 PM.
Aging is an extraordinary process where you become the person you always should have been.--David Bowie.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0310164744.htm
An analysis of publicly available data on infections from the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, that causes the respiratory illness COVID-19 yielded an estimate of 5.1 days for the median disease incubation period, according to a new study led by researchers at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. This median time from exposure to onset of symptoms suggests that the 14-day quarantine period used by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for individuals with likely exposure to the coronavirus is reasonable.
seeya
dan
I'm just one stomach flu away from my goal weight.
There are millions of octogenarians with other illnesses. The localized outbreaks where half the cancer patients die or half the nursing home dies doesnt seem to concern you. But It does me.
It is not everyone at risk. The “prevent or contain” ideas, both failed likely because “hey its just dumbasses buying toilet paper” is aimed at younger infected people going around sick and feeling that it’s not worse than a cold. But they will be killing grannies by the tens of thousands. Are you comfortable with “it’s time for boomers to move on anyway”? If so dismissing “prevent and contain“ by virtually every state and local health dept in the country is just your social media message. But it pisses me off.
I’d like to think free americans can do with free will what tyranny will do in China. But I Have more hope than faith. We are not applying the stats to everyone. But hundreds of thousands of prematurely dead old people is a tragedy too.
I never said it did not concern me. Of course it does. But to imply a 72-90% infection rate and 30-40% death rate without qualification is inaccurate. You may not care about accuracy but I do!
Aging is an extraordinary process where you become the person you always should have been.--David Bowie.
Where has anyone on here even once suggested that it's OK that people will die or that we shouldn't do what we can to contain this pandemic on a personal and policy level?
that's a strawman.
What we're debating is just how bad this will get, and taking data from the place that absolutely is the worst place for any illness to be isn't really telling us much about what we need to be doing.
Swine flu ran through several nursing homes with fairly similar effects, but we didn't shut down the country over it. This is especially virulent so we should make efforts to contain it, but national quarantine for the next year also seems a bad idea.
You know, b/c we'll bankrupt the nation and starve to death in the tens of millions. that would be bad too.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
One could as easily take COVID-19 infection and death rates from a preschool. Those numbers would be nearly 0% morbidity and 0% mortality rates because tbe virus does not affect the young. To report that and extrapolate across the entire population would be wrong as well. I might do that in the future....because I care about kids.
You know what they say about stats
Aging is an extraordinary process where you become the person you always should have been.--David Bowie.
After the voting results were in last night AOC had this to say.....
"Older voters," Ocasio-Cortez continued, "which we know are much more reliable voters, which turn out, have decisively gone to former Vice President Biden."
Ocasio-Cortez continued, reflecting on the age gap among Democratic voters: "What is surprising is how stark it actually is. We're not talking about a generational bump or a little bit of an edge. It is decisively different."
"One thing that I am concerned about ... is in our climate. I'm legitimately concerned about what this means for carbon emissions... There are many many issues where peoples' lives are on the line," she said, listing a variety of issues including criminal justice reform and abortion. "But the scale and the feedback and the irreversible nature of climate change is something that we all really need to pay close attention to."
Not one mention of COVID 19
seeya
dan
I'm just one stomach flu away from my goal weight.
^Word salad.
U really think players are going to duke without being paid over Kentucky?--Gilbert Arenas, 9/12/19
She is such a complete and total idiot. It's hysterical she got elected, and I imagine she'll be gone this November.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
No doubt. I don’t think Pedro was implying that. Just showing just how serious this CAN be if it infects the most vulnerable.
And no doubt they are the most vulnerable.
And it’s also an excellent example that “this is not the flu”. No doubt people in that nursing home have been exposed to the flu. But this wiped them out. It’s FAR more dangerous. As in 34 times more deadly.
The issue once again is that even those who don’t get as sick from it are carriers to those who do. So we have to stop the widespread as much as humanly possible. And if that means shutting down large crowds etc for a period of time we must imo.
Beshear urges church services to be cancelled due to corona. Large gatherings certainly offer a contagion rich environment.
I am unsettled by a political figure to urge church services to be put on hold. I get why. But what is next? elections?
I am concerned about that issue as it is. But I am very concerned with this.
I can see some issues with communion. I know at the church I grew up in communion was offered with small individual disposable plastic cups.
Granted someone had to prepare. I am concerned by the drinking from one cup. If my view is seen as disrespectful to anyone as to how they worship, my apologies.
Urging people to not attend church is as dire a request as I can imagine.
Chuck, the “straw man” is saying that any media is calling this the zombie apocalypse.
No one is.
But we have a President who lied and continues to downplay it publicly and then we have many of his supporters who don’t take it nearly as serious as they should because of it.
Because of that, it has likely spread far beyond being able to control it. And we are still waiting to test people.
Just a reminder since you brought up The Swine Flu.
The swine flu infected 60 million people in the United States. 60. MILLION. But it only killed 13,000.
If this spreads like that did, and it absolutely could. At a death rate of even 3% (and its estimated to be 3-4) that would kill 1.8 million people.
They better not treat this like the Swine Flu. And they better shut things down before it gets that far.
Yes, the media is treating it like the end of days. At least that' the impression from everyone I talk to.
How much more seriously should we take it? We are moving to eliminating gatherings, everyone needs to not shake hands and practice proper hygiene, so what else do we do?
At some point it goes from being smart to just cowering.
It's going to spread. Do we lock down the nation and wreck our economy and put millions out of work over this? Is that going to be good for our health?
that's what you're talking about. Do I send my 10 employees home? Do I sell my house to meet their payroll or just lay them off and then they lose their homes? Do I cancel my auctions (which have crowds near 100 or so in person) and then face the same choices?
Does Fayette Mall close? For how long? What do we do with the 100s of people who depend on that for a paycheck?
With the colleges going online only you'll see numerous small businesses close around those campuses. Those people are now out of work and trying to figure out how to eat and keep a roof over their head. Can't be good for their health. Doesn't mean that's not a right answer for now, but we have to think about the balance between risk of spreading the disease versus the real economic harm it's going to inflict to do so and where we draw that tipping point.
What's your suggestion on how we keep going in this without causing far more damage than the virus if we're to "take it seriously" at some level you think we are not achieving?
IMO it's living in a vacuum to think that every company and person in this country can just shut down and not go to work, or telecommute in jobs that require actual physical labor, and produce things till this blows over, which is months or even the year.
If we shut down travel, shut down any gathering for business, we're going to see a massive economic cascade that is in the end extremely harmful to everyone, far more numerically than those who will probably suffer from this disease.
We like doing the math on the death rates. Let's do the math on how many people lose their homes and livelihoods and can't pay the bills if we overreact to this as well.
Or we could be calm and carry on. Cut out entertainment events and huge gatherings, everyone wash their hands and for now don't shake hands, etc. If you're infirm then maybe you hole up more.
This is already the most national response to a virus in my lifetime. It's not the zombie apocalypse yet but it's certainly the biggest reaction since the Spanish Flu epidemic in 1918, and we're talking about a country that used to deal with TB and Polio. How much more of a reaction do you want?
And FWIW I'm unimpressed with any response so far from any politician. I didn't expect them to show true leadership. But beyond them saying we need to do the things I just listed I'm not sure what else the can do at least with words. With actions they can get testing ramped up, fast track a vaccine, etc.
Last edited by CitizenBBN; 03-11-2020 at 10:46 AM.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
This is a WSJ.com story about a 48 y/o man who got the virus while chaperoning a school trip to Italy. It's behind the WSJ pay wall but I found it copied on Reddit so I'm going to copy it here. I find it interesting because it gives a first-hand account of how he felt as he dealt with it, and it shows even though it may not kill a relatively young, healthy person, the infection and treatment is still substantial.
__________________________________________
U.S. Coronavirus Patient Recounts Coming ‘One Inch From Death’ Rhode Island vice principal in intensive care unit after chaperoning school trip to Italy
Marc Thibault was groggy and surrounded by beeping machines, but he was alert enough to know what it meant when he looked up and saw a priest, wearing protective gear, by his bedside at the Miriam Hospital in Rhode Island.
“Holy cow,” he thought to himself. “I’m 48 years old and I’m getting my last rites.”
Mr. Thibault, one of the first Americans diagnosed with the novel coronavirus, recounted days of pain and fear in his first interview Tuesday, speaking from the intensive-care unit at the Providence hospital where he has been for 13 days, fighting the illness that attacked his lungs. “I was one inch from death,” he said, his voice weary. “No doubt about it. No doubt about it.”
Roughly 80% of Covid-19 cases tend to be mild or moderate, and more than 62,000 people globally have recovered. Older people or those with underlying health conditions are at a higher risk.
Mr. Thibault’s ordeal began with a much-awaited school trip abroad, a journey to Europe from Feb. 14 to 22 that went through Italy. Two others from the trip also tested positive, although they weren’t hit as hard as Mr. Thibault.The married father of two is the popular vice principal of student life at Saint Raphael Academy, a private Catholic school in Pawtucket, a suburb of Providence. He knew travel would expand his students’ minds and was thrilled to chaperone the nine-day adventure that began in Milan and ended in Barcelona.
When the group of 38 people left the U.S., coronavirus was certainly in the news but there “were no cases of community-spread coronavirus in Italy and no CDC travel warning in effect,” the school said in a previous statement.
When the group landed in Milan, Mr. Thibault thought it was strange to see people in hazmat suits in the airport, but everything seemed calm. The group headed to Cinque Terre on the Italian Riviera, and began what would be just two days of sightseeing in Italy.
But just in that short period, he began to hear about Italy cordoning off some towns, and by the time they left for the French Riviera he was relieved to be leaving Italy.
It was apparently too late. Italy would become one of the hardest-hit places for the virus.
A self-described germaphobe, Mr. Thibault isn’t sure exactly how he became infected. He said he used hand sanitizer constantly on the trip. But the group’s local tour guide said he felt like he was coming down with the flu, and he and Mr. Thibault passed a microphone back and forth to talk to the students. Mr. Thibault is unsure if the tour guide ever tested positive.
Mr. Thibault had no symptoms during the trip, but he felt unusually sluggish on the flight back to the U.S.
“Something is wrong,” he told his wife when he finally got home to Rhode Island near midnight on Saturday, Feb. 22. He went straight to bed, and then the next day, went to a walk-in clinic. Mr. Thibault has asthma, but he exercises everyday and said he rarely gets sick.
He said he told the clinic he had been to Italy and wondered aloud if he could have the novel coronavirus. He was told he didn’t fit the criteria at the time for the test because he didn’t really have the symptoms, which can include a fever or shortness of breath.
He stayed home from work, but just got worse, with growing fatigue, a dry cough and something that resembled bronchitis. He went to a hospital but was again told he didn’t meet the criteria for the test, he said.
Doctors there were concerned, however, and Mr. Thibault said he quickly got a call from the Rhode Island Department of Health, which told him to get tested immediately.
A health department spokesman said the agency can’t comment on any specific patient, but noted that the CDC’s guidance for testing has evolved. “We have reviewed each Rhode Island case carefully,” the spokesman said. “In each of those instances, the health-care facilities involved all responded appropriately.”
By later in the week, Mr. Thibault was at the Miriam Hospital, where he was admitted. He tested positive for the virus.
He says the virus now hit him “like a hurricane.” He was weak and had trouble breathing. The hospital whisked him into the ICU, where nurses donned hazmat-style suits to enter his room.
They inserted a breathing tube, and put another tube down his throat for medicine to deal with pneumonia that developed in his lungs, he said.
Gagging and coughing, Mr. Thibault said he felt scared. His lungs would fill with saliva and nurses would dash in and clear them out, only to have to do it again two hours later.
“The feeling of choking. That was the worst part,” he said. “You feel like you’re asphyxiating, and you’re panicking because you can’t breathe.”
The agony went on for days.
His wife, and his two children, ages 20 and 15, were unable to visit, lest they become infected, too.
“Just get through the next hour, the next hour, the next hour,” Mr. Thibault told himself. “It’s just one time you quit and then you’re dead.”
Even though he was partially sedated, his mind kept spinning.
Last week, he forced himself to write a note to his wife, telling her that if his lungs collapsed, to not keep him on life support.
“I just didn’t want to have that on my wife’s shoulders. I just didn’t want her to do that,” he said. “I’m glad she never had to read that note.”
Slowly he began to get better. The doctors took out his breathing tube and to his relief, his lungs picked up the pace. When he could speak, he thanked the medical staff.
“What these people did for me in that last two weeks, I’m forever indebted to them,” he said.
He said he is “coming through this” and hopes to be able to leave the hospital by the weekend. He said he has turned on the television and caught up on the news of the escalating virus. He is worried some people don’t realize how serious it can be and hopes people are taking the recommended safety steps, from washing hands frequently to staying home when sick, to avoid community spread.
“It almost killed me,” he said. “It’s alarming when I hear people minimize it as a simple cold. It was no simple cold for me.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronav...th-11583866316
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus...one_inch_from/
Last edited by KSRBEvans; 03-11-2020 at 11:07 AM.
U really think players are going to duke without being paid over Kentucky?--Gilbert Arenas, 9/12/19
I guess the question we must each ask is, if given a choice between giving this specific virus to someone who may die from it, and suffering economically and otherwise, what do we do?
Of course I myself am 64 and a heart patient.
It’s a simple question with an obvious answer. But it’s a question no one including me wants to deal with at this point. At some point we may have to...but is that moment now?
That’s what we are discussing here. After reading the doctor from Italy’s description of the problem there I am much more concerned today than yesterday. That includes concern for our society as a whole, from the health issue first as well as economics and every facet of our lives.
Last edited by kingcat; 03-11-2020 at 11:49 AM.
“Before I leave I’d like to see our politics begin to return to the purposes and practices that distinguish our history from the history of other nations,
“I would like to see us recover our sense that we are more alike than different. We are citizens of a republic made of shared ideals forged in a new world to replace the tribal enmities that tormented the old one. Even in times of political turmoil such as these, we share that awesome heritage and the responsibility to embrace it.”
-Patriot and Senator. John McCain
Glad it's simple for you. I'll let you come up and explain to my employees why they can't eat and will lose their places to live. lol.
It's not simple b/c it's a matter of assessing and balancing risks. Under-react to this and we'll have more sick and dead, over-react and we'll inflict harm that yes directly makes people much worse off and even less healthy for no reason.
Some things are easier. God won't abandon anyone if we skip a few Sundays, and churches are likely to get donations enough to be OK. Easy enough.
But I like my Fayette Mall example. Do we close it? It's an obvious gathering spot for huge numbers of people, but it also employees huge numbers of people. is it fair to close Fayette mall but leave standalone stores open? Where do we draw that line?
Seattle just banned gatherings over 250. That seems high to me. But is a factory "a gathering"? Does Toyota shut down or just institute some kind of procedures?
There's no "obvious answer" here. Sure if you're sick you stay home, but do we cost millions of people their homes and jobs when they weren't sick at all?
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
exactly, although I would say it this way; will free americans do voluntarily what needs to be done and has been done involuntarily in other countries by authoritarian decrees? But judging from people here, “ old people die. Let’s go party”.
The only person to insinuate that is you.....
I was very clear in earlier posts that 1) this illness affects the young far less than the old and 2) that this nursing home is a worse case scenario. The post was to illustrate the contagiousness rate and also how it can more than decimate (in the literal sense) at risk populations. To cherry pick my post and misconstrue what I was saying is ANYTHING but the definition of accurate.
Just to expand on point 1 since you accuse me of misconstruing the facts, based on the most recent article I could find: under the age of 50 the vivrus has a mortality rate of around 0.4% (with the 2-20 age bracket being possibly as low as 0.2%, which is still 3x higher than the flu). If you are 50-60, then the rate jumps to 1.5%, 60-80 and the rate jumps to around 8%-15%, 80+ and the numbers become questionable due to the large error bars but somewhere between 25-60%. While co-morbid conditions increase the risk of death, co-morbid conditions were present in only 35% of the deaths so far. I could not find any tables which cross-tabulated co-morbid conditions and age (it is possible there aren't enough data points yet to do this effectively).
Quite simply, a huge number of people will get infected by this virus (full disclosure: there is a strong change that I already have) because this virus is VERY contagious (i.e. one NYC lawyer infected 50 people). Most of these infected will recover without major issue, around 10-20% will need hospital care to recover, and around 4% will die. With 10-20% needing hospital care, our healthcare system could easily become overwhelmed. Similarly, preventing the transmission of this virus to vulnerable populations is critical to bringing down the mortality rate. Social distancing protocols have shown great promise in slowing down the spread enough so that demand does not exceed our capacity while also not resorting to authoritarian style mass quarantines. These don't even need to occur long term, just a matter of months and the virus runs its course.
EDIT:
Also, as I stated before, this isn't an end of the world type virus. I will add this caveat, if you are getting up there in years and we don't take steps to control the spread then it might be pretty close.
Last edited by PedroDaGr8; 03-11-2020 at 11:39 AM.
Those are fantastic questions.
Many of those will answer themselves. For instance, they likely won't need to shut down Fayette Mall. People will stop going and the stores will realize it isn't worth being open.
But I will just answer this generally imo. If its a question of saving a million lives or so and hurting the economy (even possibly a recession) I choose to save the lives.
2.4 million Americans didn't die from the recession in 2008. We recovered. The stain of losing that many people will hurt far greater than a recession.
That is all imo. But you asked and that is the choice I would make.
~Puma~
No, he's not.
~Puma~
I definitely don't feel this way. I understand there is some exhaustion at the medias fearmongering. That being said, it is somewhat warranted. Most people I know have at least a FEW friends, loved ones, family members, etc. which meet the definition of vulnerable in this sense. As I alluded to in my other post, social distancing protocols have shown a lot of promise at slowing/controlling the spread without resorting to authoritarian measures.
73 Trump
60 Pence
79 Pelosi
86 Grassley
56 Pompeo
Does this worry anyone else? Pence is probably okay as he’s only 60 but Trump, Pelosi, and Grassley need to be careful. Anyone remember King Ralph?
Sorry...but I did not mean ro accuse of misconsteuing the facts. The point was and is that the post I quoted was not fully qualified. It was constructed to look at the most suseptible in the worse case scenario. That is not misconstruing but it is in essence cherry picking your population without fully explaining. The idea that there is a >70% infection and > 30% death rate borders on fear mongering, which in my opinion is something that both sides should refrain from.
Above there is reference to church closing. Talks of the NCAAT being held without fans, cancelling sporting events, etc.....all due to fear mongering. I am not one who supports things that advance fear. Common sense? Sure.
Aging is an extraordinary process where you become the person you always should have been.--David Bowie.
FWIW, overall U.S. hospital bed capacity per 1,000 people (2.8) is lower than some countries, but ICU beds/100,000 (20-31.7) is higher:
https://twitter.com/_cingraham/statu...46541252595712
U really think players are going to duke without being paid over Kentucky?--Gilbert Arenas, 9/12/19
He is the GD President. Honestly, I don't care what Schumer or Pelosi or Gaetz or anyone else says. We have ONE President. This is his job. Step in front of the American people, and calmly tell them this is a serious crisis. Tell them that extreme action needs to be taken now. STOP comparing it to the flu and stop telling people "We have it under control". We don't. Not even close. Stop tweeting about it and most definitely stop tweeting about anything else but this. Call a Presidential address and actually address ALL of the American people. Tell the vulnerable to stay home. Tell young people they are carriers even if the death rate for them is lower. Act like a friggin President.
The moment he does that, millions more people will take this as seriously as they should.
~Puma~
UK suspends campus classes through April 3, suspends all international travel, requires those returning from Europe/Japan* to self-isolate for 14 days before coming on campus, etc.:
https://twitter.com/universityofky/s...98244622589952
*--Interesting choices. Why not Korea/China/etc.? Why just Japan?
U really think players are going to duke without being paid over Kentucky?--Gilbert Arenas, 9/12/19
This is a terrific article on this imo. And why its so important that we have a national effort in place NOW. Or even two weeks ago. And not wait until this spreads. It talks about how the travel restrictions were good but didn't work. And how we are "reacting" too much now as opposed to getting ahead of this.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...g-out-control/
~Puma~
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