Coronavirus

[CitizenBBN]

I think she's the same one that said she thought they had half a million cases already back in March.

[KSRBEvans]

Mrs. BEvans got sick around Christmas Eve with the worst bug I've ever seen her get. She's convinced it was Covid and she got it from a coworker who was sick and in Chicago the week before. That would mean it was in Chicago in mid-December.

It seems really early but here we are with people having it in Ohio in January, so it's getting closer to her timeline.

She wants to get antibody testing when she can to see if she's already had it like she thinks she has.

[CitizenBBN]

This thing was getting out of China in early December at the latest, maybe into November. It was here well before Xmas IMO, and was far more widespread by early January than we ever thought.

It's part of why I give the world more of a pass, Trump and others included. At the point at which we didn't figure out the Chinese had repressed this in Nov/Dec there wasn't going to be a lot we could do. The horse was gone, closing the barn door wasn't going to matter.

The chinese knew this thing was transmitting human to human and let people travel out of Wuhan and abroad in large numbers. The world was doomed at that point. Everything else we're doing is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic and playing a holding action against it to buy time. But no way to really avoid it.

[dan_bgblue]

I had a case of the flu, and pneumonia winter of 2018. Put me in hospital for a month and a half and doctors kept predicting my demise until I pulled out of it. Any chance I had an advance case of the WuFlu?

[CitizenBBN]

I had a case of the flu, and pneumonia winter of 2018. Put me in hospital for a month and a half and doctors kept predicting my demise until I pulled out of it. Any chance I had an advance case of the WuFlu?

The Hong Kong Fluie? I think Wuhan Flu is far more accurate, no reason to pin this on Hong Kong, they're trying to stop the ChiCom expansion.

I do think it was getting out of China in December. How many got it I can't say, but I think we were screwed when the Chinese government spent about 6 weeks hiding this thing but allowing people to get out.

[CitizenBBN]

Wow, this thread was down to page 2. Even the virus can't stay in the news, lol.

WHO really is a mess:

https://www.foxnews.com/world/who-gu...virus-patients

[MickintheHam]

Wow, this thread was down to page 2. Even the virus can't stay in the news, lol.

WHO really is a mess:

https://www.foxnews.com/world/who-gu...virus-patients

The bottom line is the spotlight shown very bright on medical professionals who live in the abstract where they only discuss the theoretical. They are not accustomed to leading. They melted under the intense scrutiny. In their world they can change their minds on a whim as they are always looking at numbers. There is no accountability with these people. It was a serious mistake for political leaders to follow these people. It's simply a trip down the rabbit hole.

[Doc]

The bottom line is the spotlight shown very bright on medical professionals who live in the abstract where they only discuss the theoretical. They are not accustomed to leading. They melted under the intense scrutiny. In their world they can change their minds on a whim as they are always looking at numbers. There is no accountability with these people. It was a serious mistake for political leaders to follow these people. It's simply a trip down the rabbit hole.

It's always "follow the science", or "follow the experts" .... and when you question it somehow you are a moron until the science changes. Then its we have more information.

IMO there are no "experts" when it comes to the Wuhan virus because prior to the outbreak there was nothing to be an expert on. It was an unknown so how can you be a true expert on something that is unknown?

[dan_bgblue]

They were experts on the models, until the math changed.

[dan_bgblue]

"If you do not have any repository symptoms such as fever, cough or runny nose, you do not need to wear a mask," Dr. April Baller, a public health specialist for the WHO, says in a video on the world health body's website posted in March. "Masks should only be used by health care workers, caretakers or by people who are sick with symptoms of fever and cough."

Idiots

[CitizenBBN]

"If you do not have any repository symptoms such as fever, cough or runny nose, you do not need to wear a mask," Dr. April Baller, a public health specialist for the WHO, says in a video on the world health body's website posted in March. "Masks should only be used by health care workers, caretakers or by people who are sick with symptoms of fever and cough."

Idiots

It shows just how naive, dumb, out of touch these people are, PhD or not.

I'm with Mick. "Follow the experts" is very dangerous. First, you're suspending your own situational judgement, and second, they are as likely to be wrong as right when it comes to something that is a 100 year event with a new virus.

The CDC, Fauci, NIH, WHO, have all changed their positions multiple times as this thing has progressed. That's fine, we have to respond to new data, but it proves they are far from infallible, so we need to bring some common sense to this table as well.

And WHO Is corrupt and useless IMO, just like the entirety of the UN. They're a third world corruption subsidy.

[UKHistory]

It is a great example of either ignorance or intentional trying to keep the PPE in the hands of the medical/emergency people.

Either way it was poor.

[KeithKSR]

It is a great example of either ignorance or intentional trying to keep the PPE in the hands of the medical/emergency people.

Either way it was poor.

I think it was intentional and the whole protecting others by wearing a mask is complete BS. My wife used to work as a nurse in the respiratory step down unit, which is where they sent vent patients after they came out of ICU. They also had patients with all manner of contagious diseases. They never had patients wear masks to protect the hospital staff, unless they had to remove them from the isolation rooms for testing. If any hospital staff entered the room they had to have PPE on to protect the medical staff.

[CitizenBBN]

It is a great example of either ignorance or intentional trying to keep the PPE in the hands of the medical/emergency people.

Either way it was poor.

And the CDC, Fauci etc. were all in on the same thing in February, saying to not wear masks and Fauci explicitly said b/c we need to save them for medical staff. Then the thing to say is "yes a mask would help, but we dont' have enough for everyone, so don't go hoard them", but of course they knew people would hoard them.

So they lied to Americans for what they saw as the higher purpose, and now are back to the truth.

This is why I don't blame Trump or Beshear or other leaders a whole lot for the potential missteps of this process. They have to rely on these 'experts', and those guys have proven to be as reliable as a dartboard. They have to go with the advice they have right then, without hindsight, and a lot of that advice has proven to be wrong.

[KeithKSR]

And the CDC, Fauci etc. were all in on the same thing in February, saying to not wear masks and Fauci explicitly said b/c we need to save them for medical staff. Then the thing to say is "yes a mask would help, but we dont' have enough for everyone, so don't go hoard them", but of course they knew people would hoard them.

So they lied to Americans for what they saw as the higher purpose, and now are back to the truth.

This is why I don't blame Trump or Beshear or other leaders a whole lot for the potential missteps of this process. They have to rely on these 'experts', and those guys have proven to be as reliable as a dartboard. They have to go with the advice they have right then, without hindsight, and a lot of that advice has proven to be wrong.

I am not real trusting of the government in general, especially when a guy like Fauci has a financial stake in the process. Any medication or vaccine developed in conjunction with the NIH will be patented with Fauci as a co-holder of that patent, and earn some big bucks. I think this is a big reason he has been against hydroxychloroquine as a treatment, despite a large number of doctors who are actively using it as a primary treatment.

[UKHistory]

I am not real trusting of the government in general, especially when a guy like Fauci has a financial stake in the process. Any medication or vaccine developed in conjunction with the NIH will be patented with Fauci as a co-holder of that patent, and earn some big bucks. I think this is a big reason he has been against hydroxychloroquine as a treatment, despite a large number of doctors who are actively using it as a primary treatment.

Keith,

I may be incorrect but if Facci is 100% full time government employee, he personally cannot benefit from the vaccine. The U.S. government, based on providing funding for the research should have access on the patent and have use.

In my world of grants for example, PBS created Big Bird. PBS gets a lot of money from Big Bird toys. But if the Secretary of Education wanted to dress me up as Big Bird for a kid's rally, we don't have to PBS to use a character it created.

Much different and less signifiant but I don't think Facci can personally benefit from a vaccine patent. He may retire and go work for a contractor after a year and make big money. He may leave and go on the lecture circuit for big money--after he leaves.

[PedroDaGr8]

I am not real trusting of the government in general, especially when a guy like Fauci has a financial stake in the process. Any medication or vaccine developed in conjunction with the NIH will be patented with Fauci as a co-holder of that patent, and earn some big bucks. I think this is a big reason he has been against hydroxychloroquine as a treatment, despite a large number of doctors who are actively using it as a primary treatment.

As a scientist, please don't follow the conspiracy theory non-sense.

First off, that's not how patents work. Were he listed on the patent, it would be as an inventor; he would not be listed as an owner. This is very common at both universities and companies. Normally, the university or company is the owner and the researchers are the inventors. I know a number of individuals with their names on patents but only a few PIs are listed as owners or partial owners. This is totally ignoring the rules that prevent him from self-enrichment.

He has been against hydroxychloroquine because quite simply it doesn't work and there is no real evidence that it does work. The only studies which have shown efficacy have been VERY suspect, the rest have shown little to no benefit and notably increased risks of complications. As for the doctors swearing by it, they are not clinical researchers. They do not have the understanding or know how to conduct a study which could tease out any benefit from other confounding factors. They see some anecdotal results and assume it works; the plural of anecdote is not data. If there were any real evidence of benefit, I would be the first to tout it but so far every decently controlled study has shown no impact or worse.

[KeithKSR]

Keith,

I may be incorrect but if Facci is 100% full time government employee, he personally cannot benefit from the vaccine. The U.S. government, based on providing funding for the research should have access on the patent and have use.

In my world of grants for example, PBS created Big Bird. PBS gets a lot of money from Big Bird toys. But if the Secretary of Education wanted to dress me up as Big Bird for a kid's rally, we don't have to PBS to use a character it created.

Much different and less signifiant but I don't think Facci can personally benefit from a vaccine patent. He may retire and go work for a contractor after a year and make big money. He may leave and go on the lecture circuit for big money--after he leaves.

In most cases that would be correct, but not for the NIH.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC545012/

[PedroDaGr8]

The CDC, Fauci, NIH, WHO, have all changed their positions multiple times as this thing has progressed. That's fine, we have to respond to new data, but it proves they are far from infallible, so we need to bring some common sense to this table as well.

No decent scientist thinks they are infallible. In fact, most scientists I know do not care about being wrong/right, they care about finding the truth. As more data comes in, the details evolve and some theories live on and others die at the hands of a cruel fact. To be brutally honest, I have worked with people who try to combine "common sense" and data, the results are seldom satisfactory. Most of these people just cherry pick the data that supports what THEY view as "common sense" and discard anything that contradicts it. The biggest problem with data at this time is when people extrapolate it beyond what the data actually says. Understanding the limitations of your data is a big part of the process too. Much of my job is understanding the potential limitations of any data I generate and ensuring when I make a statement I am clear on what are the limitations of the data, what are any potential issues, etc. I seldom have to worry about it being misconstrued because the people I work with are used to some degrees of ambiguity. For a public facing scientist, they often understand the limitations but the hard part is conveying the limitations of the data in simple words that a layperson can understand but don't come across as "not knowing anything". Changing ones position based on data in my opinion is laudable because the data is right far far more often than "common sense". Furthermore, changing your views based on the data will bring you progressively closer to the truth. I have little respect for someone who sees the data but refuses to change or modify their views.

[kingcat]

No decent scientist thinks they are infallible. In fact, most scientists I know do not care about being wrong/right, they care about finding the truth.


I have little respect for someone who sees the data but refuses to change or modify their views.

Who on earth would do such a thing in our enlightened society?


Always appreciate your input Pedro..

[CitizenBBN]

No decent scientist thinks they are infallible. In fact, most scientists I know do not care about being wrong/right, they care about finding the truth. As more data comes in, the details evolve and some theories live on and others die at the hands of a cruel fact. To be brutally honest, I have worked with people who try to combine "common sense" and data, the results are seldom satisfactory. Most of these people just cherry pick the data that supports what THEY view as "common sense" and discard anything that contradicts it. The biggest problem with data at this time is when people extrapolate it beyond what the data actually says. Understanding the limitations of your data is a big part of the process too. Much of my job is understanding the potential limitations of any data I generate and ensuring when I make a statement I am clear on what are the limitations of the data, what are any potential issues, etc. I seldom have to worry about it being misconstrued because the people I work with are used to some degrees of ambiguity. For a public facing scientist, they often understand the limitations but the hard part is conveying the limitations of the data in simple words that a layperson can understand but don't come across as "not knowing anything". Changing ones position based on data in my opinion is laudable because the data is right far far more often than "common sense". Furthermore, changing your views based on the data will bring you progressively closer to the truth. I have little respect for someone who sees the data but refuses to change or modify their views.

Pedro, I agree with every word you wrote.

But the problem is I KNOW science is a pursuit of truth and that we are talking about the stages of hypothesis testing and theory, and that as we learn more we change our conclusions.

a lot of people do not understand that, and take whatever is said as if it was handed down by Moses on a stone tablet. IMO that is sometimes just as dangerous as the dismissives who ignore the advice of experts.

It's also muddied by the fact that many who may have advanced degrees may still not know what they are talking about and tout themselves as experts or knolwedgeable without there being any real basis.

As you pointed out, people with doctors degrees are embracing medicines that have no real basis in the research. A great example of that is how the entire global government community says salt is bad for blood pressure, despite there being a serious disagreement in the actual research. There are accomplished doctors touting poorly supported weight loss theories every night on TV, and this example today by WHO suggesting you should only mask up after you have advanced symptoms is another great example.

My approach I think is sound. I LISTEN to the advice and science, but I do not accept it as the end all be all answer and truth for all time, b/c it absolutely is not, and any good scientist like yourself would say the same thing.

So we go on what we know right now, but we need to go on it not to extremes and with some dose of common sense and in BALANCE with the other variables that this or that "expert" may not have considered.

that's been my position from Day One and I think it has proven out well. The science and math says the best way to lick this is to weld everyone into their homes for 1-2 months and shut down all international travel of any kind for the foreseeable future, but since that's not realistic now we need to take what we know to move from science to policy.

My point about being forgiving of Trump but also Beshear or Newsome or Cuomo (though he has had easily as much hubris as Trump during this) is that all they can do is listen to these same people and proceed, but since we will learn new things and find out we were wrong as well as right, their path will look very zig-zag.

I'm good with that b/c I get how science works, but way too many people think it is infallible, arguably just as many as who simply dismiss it altogether. Neither approach is wise or useful IMO.

[anderwt]

As I have stated to my wife, friends and family..I understand the hurt the African American community feels right now.. what that cop did was horrific, it was intentional and he should never be allowed to leave that prison cell. Look at what his actions has done to this country.

On another hand though as I get told by cnn every day, “this virus isn’t going away”.. you can’t be having lake of Ozarks gatherings. I’m assuming they are afraid to say it, but if having mass gatherings for sports, beaches is killing people like I’m being told, isn’t gathering for massive protest in every major city in this country extremely dangerous to our health? Does the virus not spread while looting and burning down buildings and cars? Just be real about this virus instead of fear mongering.

[UKHistory]

The riots are a giant incubator of Covid

But first amendment rights whether it is getting together for church or protecting an injustice must be honored

[Doc]

The riots are a giant incubator of Covid

But first amendment rights whether it is getting together for church or protecting an injustice must be honored

Exactly...if you are concerned about your health then don't riot or loot........

[MickintheHam]

Some folks are more concerned about the welfare of UK football players returning to a controlled environment than they are people in the streets.

[blueboss]

After the weekend activities I’m guessing the social distancing program is over?


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[dan_bgblue]

After the weekend activities I’m guessing the social distancing program is over?


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Gonna be some hot spots flare up in about 2 weeks. I hope it only affects idiots.

[blueboss]

Gonna be some hot spots flare up in about 2 weeks. I hope it only affects idiots.

Problem is going to be where the knuckleheads are going after they’re done looting, and rioting to spread the virus.


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[dan_bgblue]

Anyone know where Soros stores his minions when they are in training?

[KSRBEvans]

Saw this and thought it was interesting:

Capture 7-27-20.jpg

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1287198014923309060