Necessity is the mother of invention.....Italian docs have made masks from snorkels..
Attachment 9281
Necessity is the mother of invention.....Italian docs have made masks from snorkels..
Attachment 9281
For weeks, New York, Washington and California were the 3 “hot spots” and had the most cases.
Now, California and Washington are no longer in the top 3.
New Jersey and Michigan are with Florida, Illinois and Massachusetts fast approaching.
What a nightmare.
Chart used in today's briefing modeling deaths/day peaking around April 15:
83650FA5-848D-4A26-B7A8-B23EC460A05C.jpg
Dr. Birx calls the shaded area the "confidence interval," which I think of as the cone of uncertainty on hurricane tracks. She says the goal is to get that tighter & farther depressed with mitigation measures.
Last edited by KSRBEvans; 03-31-2020 at 06:01 PM.
U really think players are going to duke without being paid over Kentucky?--Gilbert Arenas, 9/12/19
Typically in stats a confidence interval will be 95% or 98%. That is to say there's a 95% or 98% chance the actual result/value/outcome is within the given range. My memory of stats is fading over the years, but that much I recall, lol. so I imagine this is one of those two numbers, so that's the likely scenario based on their numbers right now.
The problem is the entire scenario shifts every day.
Complete aside, I looked at one of my old college notebooks a while back with pages of option pricing and other financial models. Lots of calculus and statistics and I could barely read the thing.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
That model is a bit heartening in the since that it goes down so quickly after the late April/Early May timeline. However, I wonder what their models look like if they take off the restrictions at the end of April.Originally Posted by KSRBEvans
As we have said, we just really really need the testing and medicine.
~Puma~
Btw, I have been very critical of how the President handled this early on. But he has done a very good job in the Press Conference today. He's a very interesting guy (as Chuck and I keep saying). He's a real Jekyl and Hyde. Today, he is sobering and being a leader. Tomorrow, who knows.
And in his defense (and I will rarely do that), can some of the reporters stop asking the same stupid questions they have for weeks now. They do these every single day. Let's stick to the newest and current news. A few of the questions have been terrific. The ones about the new medicine, etc.
Last edited by ukpumacat; 03-31-2020 at 06:21 PM.
~Puma~
He's a complete enigma. He's given some speeches that are every bit as good as any POTUS in my lifetime, where he's composed, serious, but also inspires and is sincere. Then the next day he tweets name calling to people. It's bizarre.
As for the reporters, I get why Trump is so negative with them. Whether one thinks Trump messed up early on or not why ask every damned day? They're all "have you stopped beating your wife" questions, where they act appalled that Trump doesn't just say "yeah I was awful, I don't deserve to be President, I'm resigning" in response.
But that's how they have treated him since Day One, just a more incensed and vicious version of how they treat every conservative politician. They're indignant that someone they disagree with is actually in charge, and REALLY indignant it's someone as utterly uncouth as Trump.
And that's why so many people do like Trump. They've felt that condescension in the media for a very long time, and Trump is also the first one to call them out on it and "fight back" as it is seen. And I'm actually glad he does it, I just don't like his methods. Calling names etc. is just stupid, but calling them out for their hack questions and never win attitude and deep bias is absolutely good. If he just handled it with some intelligence, even some wit, he'd get a lot farther.
FDR was good at the witty approach. Trump could be, he's quick on his feet with talking, but it comes off mean and hateful instead of smart and clever.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
And more proof of him being an enigma. Today, Jim Acosta was annoying ME. And Trump brushed it off and made a joke. Other days, he would have undone all the good he said today by saying something ridiculous.
I agree with you. I am critical of the job he did early on. I don't need to hear the question or the response every living day. Just stick to what is current.
~Puma~
I can't explain it. As you said, he's the ultimate jekyll and hyde.
One other thing I've always said, even when defending him (b/c even when he's Hyde he's not the anti-christ) is that working for him must be a living hell. It doesn't mean his staff is right and he is wrong, just that he's going to be all over the place and you never know if he's going to handle it with calm focus or a lunatic rant.
Speaking of the other thread, that kinda reminds me of my mom a little...
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
And honestly I have no use for the White House Press Corps at all. Haven't since way before Trump. Very very few of them really ask insightful questions versus political talking points, going back before Trump.
Some do, and more used to, but now it's more just political sword play versus real briefings and substance. It was more pleasant with obama b/c they loved him, but it still wasn't useful.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
Comments to the point of the press corps by Brit Hume, who I think is great:
https://www.foxnews.com/media/brit-h...orce-briefings
"Reporters are like people who have one tool," he said. "You've heard the famous saying, 'If the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.'"
"If the only thing you've ever been is a political reporter and you are covering the White House briefings on a major worldwide pandemic, you might be tempted to ask a lot of political questions, which is what they've done."
"If you dismiss these as nothing but rallies," Hume concluded, "you are missing the point. If you are asking questions about nothing but politics, you are missing it again.""
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
I won’t argue with the Jekyl-Hyde comments, but having worked for a number of people like him in public emergency situations, his behavior traits are somewhat common. You don’t pay attention to the words. You evaluate the results. Words are generated to get a certain form of behavior or a particular result.
It was very evident in his tariff negotiations with the Chinese. Trump was Criticized for labeling this the “Chinese” virus. Why? It was a message to the Chinese that they were responsible for putting out false information about how the disease was spread. There are a lot of back channel talks, regarding wet markets and reported statistics. His label is reinforcing the messaging that is not taking place in the public arena. While the leaders may not be talking directly Trump’s message gets through when he puts the label out there. It is his way of embarrassing the Chinese government and getting them to own up to their role in tthe pandemic.
Last edited by MickintheHam; 03-31-2020 at 10:36 PM.
Real Fan since 1958
Local news detail -- Biggest gathering problem in kentucky (at least Lexington) is home improvement stores. People flocking to them right now.
Home Depot today is now letting in 100 people at a time, counting them out. The Gov was on them this week and said he spoke with their corporate people about it. It really is a problem as most there arent' masked etc.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
It what could be optimistic news locally, UAB Hospital In Patient Covid 19 cases peaked at 62 on March 26. The last 4 days the count has been 53 -52-52-52. Fingers crossed it is a trend.
Real Fan since 1958
Which btw, I do understand. People have nothing else to do, so they want to get yard work done. I made a big run before this started and tried to get enough to plant, etc. But that was done in about two days.
~Puma~
Totally understandable, but now we're seeing shortages of building supplies, lol.
If everyone who went would wear masks and gloves and stay their distance that would be fine, but most aren't really making the proper effort.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
We went to HomenDepot today. Are doing that in FL as well where 1 person out/1 person in. We bought some shrubs, working on the yard. This afternoon I had a rhizotomy. Glad my Dr was not closed for "elective" procedures because my back pain is not what I consider elective
Aging is an extraordinary process where you become the person you always should have been.--David Bowie.
Least shocking conclusion of this entire episode: Intelligence reports find that China is lying about their numbers.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...elligence-says
I've seen estimates that they knowingly hid the outbreak for 2 months. No doubt they downplayed the data even as it was becoming apparent there was a problem. That alone has led the world into a delayed response, not just in the US but globally.
Now they paint themselves as saviors. It's like a doctor botching your surgery then expecting gratitude when he goes back in and fixes it.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
BTW the estimates out there being reported by Radio Free Asia and others put the Wuhan death toll alone in the 45,000 range.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
China has disappeared another doctor.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/chines...id-19-vanishes
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
NY now at 4300 cases per million of state population
I've been saying we need a National Stay at Home order for 30 days for a couple of weeks now. I actually think there is wisdom in allowing Governors to make that call. But since some won't, Trump has to do it.
~Puma~
Kentucky has done well without a complete "stay at home", but they got on the distancing early compared to the number of cases. Today we had fewer new cases, so I don't expect a full stay at home here as we're doing OK.
But then you have Florida, which had to go from spring break mentality to lockdown b/c they didn't really try with just heavy distancing and basic closings.
I do think Trump needed to step in with Florida 2 weeks ago, at least a week ago. When they let spring breakers down there I knew they were not getting with the program.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
The group that's doing modeling that the feds are using to fashion their crisis response (and produced the chart posted above) has a great website where you can see their projections on positives/deaths/hospitalized/ICU/ventilator by date and by state:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Here's what they have for Kentucky for hospital resource use:
Screen Shot 2020-04-01 at 10.08.34 PM.jpg
Screen Shot 2020-04-01 at 10.13.10 PM.jpg
Projections on Kentucky deaths/day:
Screen Shot 2020-04-01 at 10.09.42 PM.jpg
Total Kentucky deaths through 8/4:
Screen Shot 2020-04-01 at 10.11.28 PM.jpg
U really think players are going to duke without being paid over Kentucky?--Gilbert Arenas, 9/12/19
Awesome info BEvans. neat site.
Showing that Kentucky will be comfortable on beds and ICU spaces on current curve, by a comfortable margin in fact. That's great news. Peak deaths mid-may.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
Just read an article on a company called BLOX based here in Birmingham (Bessemer). They have developed Mobile ICUs. They expect to produce 10,000 this year to help meet a shortage of 50,000 that has been identified. These units can be deployed and set up on site in 3 days. Imagine if we could have those in Central Park right next to Samaritan's Purse's Tents.
Real Fan since 1958
I don't buy into the bleakest projections that are months out b/c I have faith in America's ability to find solutions.
one of the biggest failings of left wing economics is that it holds variables constant and then projects based on a static world. But the world isn't static, and it's stunning what can be accomplished when the demand is big enough.
Necessity is the mother of invention, and it will drive all kinds of solutions, adaptations, substitutions and retooling to meet our needs. It won't come tomorrow and won't be as soon as we may want, but it will happen and it will mitigate much of the longer term damage.
Which is why puma and others are right that the key is to slow the transmission rate down until we can gear up and change the variables.
In the next 30 days we'll see death rates become alarming, but we'll also be ramping up significant production of needed supplies and finding better treatments.
We're just holding on in the fort until the cavalry arrives.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
Here is an article on the MICU technology.
https://www.marketplace.org/shows/ma...QJJ_hHlSLDONaE
Real Fan since 1958
I can’t remember which thread I posted the blood pressure meds stuff but thought I would mention....my MD switched me to amlodopine, a calcium channel blocker. From the Lancet:
We suggest that patients with cardiac diseases, hypertension, or diabetes, who are treated with ACE2-increasing drugs, are at higher risk for severe COVID-19 infection and, therefore, should be monitored for ACE2-modulating medications, such as ACE inhibitors or ARBs. Based on a PubMed search on Feb 28, 2020, we did not find any evidence to suggest that antihypertensive calcium channel blockers increased ACE2 expression or activity, therefore these could be a suitable alternative treatment in these patients.
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