Coronavirus

[Doc]

Bigsky's post on the board about travel to the SECT got me thinking about the whole coronavirus thing and the lack of a discussion thread. So a few comments on my uninformed point of view

1) the origins. My suspicion, and one I firmly believe, is that this is not something that escaped or migrate from nature. The new virus has been linked to SARS, having a common origin. However I do believe in the "conspiracy theory" (note: Conspiracy theories are just ones that most folks don't agree with) that the origin is man made and likely from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Those against this theory use the openness of the Chinese, who claim it to not be the source, as some type of evidence. The openness of the chinese? Seriously

2) Travel fears are overblown. Flew a couple weeks ago and some folks wearing masks despite very few cases in the USA. I would take the wearing mask fad seriously if folks actually wore the mask correctly. A 2 inch gap on each side and/or sitting below your nose sort of defeats the purpose!

3) Stock market took a big hit due to it. Still trying to figure the LONG TERM effects. Might actually be of benefit by moving many suppliers out of China..but doubt it

4) US has done a good job of controlling it for now. Much like the Ebola scare a few years back, USA was at the forefront of travel restriction despite the cries of racism. The key to slowing down spread is slowing exposure. I have no doubt it will get worse but slowing the spread is key. Unlike ebola, transmission of this one is FAR easier and there will be exposures/disease since its airborne rather than bloodborne.

5) This will be resolved in one of two manners. Most likely is simply Spring. Coronavirus is basically a nasty nasty flu, and like the vast majority of flus, it is dependant on moist cool air for transmission as well as the stress to the body of cold weather. The other method will be the development of resistance from exposure or vaccines. That is a far less desirable due to the time involved.

[bigsky]

“We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad,” Dr. Messonnier said.” CDC as reported by NYT.

Media going into full doomsday mode.

Capt Trips cures global warming, Stu.

[MickintheHam]

I essentially agree with Doc. However, thanks to previous administrations many off our prescription meds are manufactured in China. The US is exposed to shortages of these meds.

[Doc]

I essentially agree with Doc. However, thanks to previous administrations many off our prescription meds are manufactured in China. The US is exposed to shortages of these meds.

This is the biggest concern, at least for me. The US put themselves in a pickle by outsourcing some essential for decades. I have seen a few issue with stuff from china, the biggest being the Melamine contamination of some dog foods. Treated several cases a few years back for it. IMO, not only as it relates to coronavirus and how its impact affects our production but also from a warfare and terrorism aspect.

[MickintheHam]

There is contamination in human drugs as well. Carcinogens are a primary concern.

[bigsky]

So as I said, I'm skeptical. But as most are saying, it's a virus like the common cold, and, ultimately, most people are likely to get it. The other side of this is look at the results so far. 2-3% death rate. If 70% of US gets the disease, say, 210 million, and there is a 2% mortality, that is four million people, mostly infirm or homeless or other health challenges. That's going to hammer people and families and health services and oh yes, not to be crass, the economy. It's not Stephen King's Captain Trips with it's global warming solving 99% mortality rate as some politicians are acting like. But it could be significant, and that is the reason financial markets are acting the way they are. Is it affecting your travel plans? Will it affect the NCAA basketball tournaments, for example? Spring break? These are economic events, too and again, you see the markets reacting.

[ukpumacat]

The other side of this is look at the results so far. 2-3% death rate. If 70% of US gets the disease, say, 210 million, and there is a 2% mortality, that is four million people, mostly infirm or homeless or other health challenges. That's going to hammer people and families and health services and oh yes, not to be crass, the economy. It's not Stephen King's Captain Trips with it's global warming solving 99% mortality rate as some politicians are acting like. But it could be significant, and that is the reason financial markets are acting the way they are. Is it affecting your travel plans? Will it affect the NCAA basketball tournaments, for example? Spring break? These are economic events, too and again, you see the markets reacting.

This is the real issue to me. Politically speaking, I understand Trump's concern. Things look good for him now and the last thing he needs is flailing stock market and national disaster before the election.
However, this is not a political event. Even someone like me who doesn't like Trump wouldn't blame Trump for this. He needs to not make it political and not react in a political way. His tweet about it the other day is just ludicrous.

Besides people dying, my concern is with the ripple effects. Japan just closed schools for a month. A MONTH. Can you imagine what that would do in the US? The number of working parents, etc that it would effect. And people not being able to work because of getting ill or the fear of it. The number of people with lousy health insurance or none. The potential costs of vaccines, etc.
The ripple effects are scary.

Again, are we there? No, not even close. But we have to be thoroughly prepared so that those things do not happen. Playing politics with this isn't going to stop it.

[KSRBEvans]

What I think I know:

--Sooner rather than later we're going to see disruptions here like we're starting to see overseas, such as the Japanese school closures Puma mentioned;

--In spite of that (and probably because the measures taken will be too little/too late) I think we're going to see widespread infections here;

--What it means in terms of mortality rate I don't know and I don't think anyone can predict with any certainty.

I just read that Australia is implementing a response plan assuming this is or soon will be a pandemic. Does the US have a plan already prepared (I assume there is one)?

[CitizenBBN]

The death rate at ground zero, based on the iffy numbers we have, is about 2%. I'm betting that Chinese health care is nowhere near as good as ours and that includes a lot of infirm people not getting much care.

This year about 29mil have gotten the flu in the US with about 1% of those hospitalized for it, with 16,000 deaths.

If this turns out to be flu on steroids we're still not in bad shape, but if 10x the number of people end up infected versus the flu rates that could turn ugly.

Infection rates are likely to decline with warmer weather. If we can keep this to flu or even strong flu levels it'll be fine, but it's hard to say what will happen with it as so far we have unreliable data and very little from any nation with western levels of health care and resources.

[Doc]

This is the real issue to me. Politically speaking, I understand Trump's concern. Things look good for him now and the last thing he needs is flailing stock market and national disaster before the election.
However, this is not a political event. Even someone like me who doesn't like Trump wouldn't blame Trump for this. He needs to not make it political and not react in a political way. His tweet about it the other day is just ludicrous.

Besides people dying, my concern is with the ripple effects. Japan just closed schools for a month. A MONTH. Can you imagine what that would do in the US? The number of working parents, etc that it would effect. And people not being able to work because of getting ill or the fear of it. The number of people with lousy health insurance or none. The potential costs of vaccines, etc.
The ripple effects are scary.

Again, are we there? No, not even close. But we have to be thoroughly prepared so that those things do not happen. Playing politics with this isn't going to stop it.

Don't ever discount what politicians will do

https://www.foxnews.com/media/ap-fac...rg-coronavirus

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/cor...tential-crisis

and true to his petulant nature, Trump fires back. Bottom line is our politicians need to grow up. Most act like 2 year olds...be it gator clapping, or tearing up paper, or infantile tweeting. Next thing you know they will sit on the floor and hold their breath til they turn blue

[Doc]

The death rate at ground zero, based on the iffy numbers we have, is about 2%. I'm betting that Chinese health care is nowhere near as good as ours and that includes a lot of infirm people not getting much care.

This year about 29mil have gotten the flu in the US with about 1% of those hospitalized for it, with 16,000 deaths.

If this turns out to be flu on steroids we're still not in bad shape, but if 10x the number of people end up infected versus the flu rates that could turn ugly.

Infection rates are likely to decline with warmer weather. If we can keep this to flu or even strong flu levels it'll be fine, but it's hard to say what will happen with it as so far we have unreliable data and very little from any nation with western levels of health care and resources.

I think the death rate is exaggerated, as you point out. I am sure that the overall health of the average citizen in Wuhan providence China is far inferior to anybody in the US, including the homeless. Add that the health care system in China is far inferior. I would expect the mortality/morbidity rates to be on par with most seasonal flu's in this country

[kingcat]

I pity this virus if it crawls into the Ohio Valley. We have bugs here that splash on Ebola when they go out to reproduce.

[KSRBEvans]

Mortality rate vs case fatality rate:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate

I think we all say the former when we mean the latter, but there's a difference worth remembering.

[Doc]

The two most common looked at are Mortality rate and Morbidity rate. Morbidity is basically the number that get sick in the population where as mortality is the number that die. Both are based on entire population.

[CitizenBBN]

That's why I did the numbers on regular flu the way I did. The estimate of total population who got it this year, how many were hospitalized and how many died. That's a pretty good measure of the "badness" of a bug IMO, and accounts for "bad" as in going to the hospital versus actually dying.

If we can keep the hospitalization rate down to 1-2% we'll be OK, but if it blows up, and it probably will only b/c of an abundance of caution if nothing else, we'll really strain our resources.

But we survived the spanish flu pandemic, we'll survive this too.

[ukpumacat]

But we survived the spanish flu pandemic, we'll survive this too.

Yes, we will survive. Unfortunately, this virus seems to be HIGHLY contagious. And as has already been mentioned, it kills more people.
We have a flu vaccine but not a coronavirus vaccine. And I have been in a house full of people with the flu and didn't get it. Pretty sure I wouldn't have the same luck with the coronavirus.

The good news is that we have had a head start to prepare and hopefully we are.

I am all for our President not wanting people to panic. And again, I get that he wants the stock market to stay stable for various reasons. But he can't simply lie about this. This is the time where politics on ALL sides need to be put aside. It starts with him.
He needs to be honest and forthright. This is serious. But its not the Black Plague.
Yesterday he said that there were "15 cases and we are headed to zero". That is an outright lie. There are 28 confirmed cases in California alone. And even though "headed to zero" is an opinion....it lacks credibility.

[KSRBEvans]

A twitter thread from a medical researcher regarding basic preparations we can start now (e.g. ensure you have adequate supply of prescription meds), precautions we should all take (stop touching your face, wash your hands thoroughly, etc.) and others that people are thinking about that may not help avoid infection (masks).

https://twitter.com/alimanfoo/status...93018295250946

From a layman's perspective, seems to make common sense.

[ukpumacat]

A twitter thread from a medical researcher regarding basic preparations we can start now (e.g. ensure you have adequate supply of prescription meds), precautions we should all take (stop touching your face, wash your hands thoroughly, etc.) and others that people are thinking about that may not help avoid infection (masks).

https://twitter.com/alimanfoo/status...93018295250946

From a layman's perspective, seems to make common sense.

Good read, thanks.

[JPScott]

Yes, we will survive. Unfortunately, this virus seems to be HIGHLY contagious. And as has already been mentioned, it kills more people.
We have a flu vaccine but not a coronavirus vaccine. And I have been in a house full of people with the flu and didn't get it. Pretty sure I wouldn't have the same luck with the coronavirus.

The good news is that we have had a head start to prepare and hopefully we are.

I am all for our President not wanting people to panic. And again, I get that he wants the stock market to stay stable for various reasons. But he can't simply lie about this. This is the time where politics on ALL sides need to be put aside. It starts with him.
He needs to be honest and forthright. This is serious. But its not the Black Plague.
Yesterday he said that there were "15 cases and we are headed to zero". That is an outright lie. There are 28 confirmed cases in California alone. And even though "headed to zero" is an opinion....it lacks credibility.

One interesting thing I learned recently was that the “Spanish Flu” earned its name not because it originated in Spain, but because they were one of the few countries not at war at the time, so there were no restrictions on the news. In other countries they were more concerned about censoring the truth, and that likely resulted in many unnecessary deaths.

Link to article about 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic

[PedroDaGr8]

Overall Doc a solid job for an "uninformed" opinion, you are far from a layman on this. I say that because this is very much in the domain of my field of expertise and you did a good job of explaining a lot of this. I have added my opinion as someone who works in this domain space.

Bigsky's post on the board about travel to the SECT got me thinking about the whole coronavirus thing and the lack of a discussion thread. So a few comments on my uninformed point of view

1) the origins. My suspicion, and one I firmly believe, is that this is not something that escaped or migrate from nature. The new virus has been linked to SARS, having a common origin. However I do believe in the "conspiracy theory" (note: Conspiracy theories are just ones that most folks don't agree with) that the origin is man made and likely from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Those against this theory use the openness of the Chinese, who claim it to not be the source, as some type of evidence. The openness of the chinese? Seriously

So far, there are no hallmarks of genetic engineering in this virus. For both viruses and bacteria, there would be notable "unnatural" portions of the DNA if it were directly engineered. There is certainly the possibility that the Chinese have a "selective breeding" kind of program going on, from which this could have originated. That being said, this has none of the indicators of a reliable biological weapon (it is TOO infectious, it mostly kills the elderly or the very young rather than the healthy, it doesn't have any horrifying symptoms to demoralize, etc.).

I think more than likely, this developed much like swine flu, avian flu, SARA, MERS, and most other coronaviruses (little c), which is transmission from animals to humans. While this occurs all around the world, China is hot bed for this due to the fact that certain parts of the population have little to no cultural restrictions on what they will and will not consume. Pretty much any animal is up for consumption and the stranger the animal the more likely it is used in food or "traditional medicine". While it is very common worldwide to eat animals/plants/fungi that Westerners find strange, the issue is the wide breadth and rapid desire for new and different animals. This results in having loads of foreign and domestic animals all together in meat markets, combining their viruses/bacteria together, sharing genes, and in close proximity to a LARGE population.

2) Travel fears are overblown. Flew a couple weeks ago and some folks wearing masks despite very few cases in the USA. I would take the wearing mask fad seriously if folks actually wore the mask correctly. A 2 inch gap on each side and/or sitting below your nose sort of defeats the purpose!

Travel fears within the USA are overblown AT THIS TIME. This situation could change in a matter of days/weeks. This virus has an R-value 4-8x higher than the flu, which means it is VERY VERY contagious and spreads fast. Honestly, with small numbers then quarantine will work. If the quarantine gets breached, which possibly already occurred, then things will spread much farther and more rapidly.

As for your comment about masks...obviously wearing the mask properly is far better but hell I have seen nurses not wearing them properly. If they can't do it, forget Joe Public. That being said, don't forget masks can help to mitigate transmission once you have it. Considering you are likely contagious before symptom onset, these masks (even when worn improperly) can limit the number of people infected by a contagious person (bringing down the R-value).

3) Stock market took a big hit due to it. Still trying to figure the LONG TERM effects. Might actually be of benefit by moving many suppliers out of China..but doubt it

Suppliers have already been moving out of China in recent years as manufacturing labor there gets more expensive, this will might accelerate it some. Some businesses are going to have a VERY rough Q1-Q2, others higher up the food chain won't feel the pinch until Q3, Q4, or even 2021Q1.

4) US has done a good job of controlling it for now. Much like the Ebola scare a few years back, USA was at the forefront of travel restriction despite the cries of racism. The key to slowing down spread is slowing exposure. I have no doubt it will get worse but slowing the spread is key. Unlike ebola, transmission of this one is FAR easier and there will be exposures/disease since its airborne rather than bloodborne.

If by controlling you mean there aren't a large number of confirmed cases then you are correct. If you mean the government has been doing a good job at screening and protecting us, not at all. There are reports that the administration ignored the CDC and brought potentially infected people into the country without proper precautions. The first confirmed case of unknown origin in California has been linked to this. This kind of virus requires a MUCH higher response and requires a MUCH more detailed response.

Not just quarantine but high volumes of screening are essential to successfully overcome this and limit the number of deaths. Most other countries are testing volumes in the tens of thousands and higher. USA screening has been abysmal, lagging far behind other countries. A number of companies could have already developed test kits for this virus but are being inhibited regulatorily by the administration. Regulations have been lightened in the past when rapid developments in testing became necessary but the administration is actively blocking this. I'm not sure how much of this I can share due to it being within my own company/industry but lets just say I am not listening to hearsay instead having seen it occur directly and will leave it at that. At this time, the only approved test is the CDC test; this has been a HUGE failure because quantities are very limited. Why the roadblocks? Are they to keep the counts artificially low (much like China) or some other reason, nobody is saying. What I can say is the government has been ignoring calls to expand screening criteria despite signs the disease is breaking quarantine. For a disease like this, increased screening is incredibly critical. I am trying to keep this apolitical but in this particular case the administration has been directly blocking the normal logical progression of response. I actually considered bringing this up a couple days ago, but Trump did it for me yesterday by silencing the CDC.

5) This will be resolved in one of two manners. Most likely is simply Spring. Coronavirus is basically a nasty nasty flu, and like the vast majority of flus, it is dependant on moist cool air for transmission as well as the stress to the body of cold weather. The other method will be the development of resistance from exposure or vaccines. That is a far less desirable due to the time involved.

It would be nice if spring would take care of it but this is not likely. The virus has been spreading well in both Vietnam and Singapore, which are currently experiencing temperatures much like summer in most of the USA (Singapore weather tomorrow high of 92, low of 77). While cold may favor its spread more, it seems to do OK in heat as well. As such, resistance due to exposure is the most likely at this time (if EVERYTHING goes perfectly then the vaccine is 1.5+years with 2-3years being far more likely) and that is going to leave a decent number of deaths in its wake. Anything we can do to slow the spread until we develop the vaccine will save lives. It is basically a race at this point, with people infants, small children, and people 65+ likely to pay most of the price.

If this sounds like fear mongering, it is not. A death rate of 4% is not ebola-levels in any way, that being said look at 25 of your closest friends and family members and think about how it would feel seeing 5-10 of those people having to go to the hospital with severe/life-threatening symptoms and likely having one of them die; this is the potential of this virus if it hits your area uncontrolled. It will not destroy the world, it will not destroy civilization, it WILL impact you directly and painfully.

[CitizenBBN]

I don't know if anyone has silenced the CDC in this, but I do get why any administration is trying to not create a full blown panic. It's a delicate balance between trying to make sure people take precautions and prepare and having riots and food shortages.

As for developing tests there's no doubt we should be rushing to do that by any means necessary, so I'd be very interested in knowing what's going on there. At first glance I see no upside to intentionally holding back on the ability to produce testing kits. Trump is no scientist but I don't see why he would be against such a move for any political reason, which means it's likely some kind of deeper politics going on somewhere.

[ukpumacat]

Trump is no scientist but I don't see why he would be against such a move for any political reason, which means it's likely some kind of deeper politics going on somewhere.

I don't either. But apparently somehow he does. Because he is outright lying about the number who have it. And his tweets are clearly political.

[CitizenBBN]

I don't either. But apparently somehow he does. Because he is outright lying about the number who have it. And his tweets are clearly political.

All politician's comments are political. Trump was called a racist for closing down travel from China, now he hasn't done enough.

As for the number, that depends on how we count. Not trying to defend him, I don't even pay attention to his claims as most are sheer hyperbole (everything he does is "the best ever"), but are we talking cases including quarantines or not is the question.

As I understand it the number he used is the number of cases we've found in the US not counting people we brought back already infected or at high risk and those are in quarantine.

Now the issue is that we have a case now "in the wild" and we have a whistleblower saying quarantine was already breached (no surprise from me given it's a government operation), so clearly we don't have this bottled up, but whether his statement is a "lie" or just misleading or in fact a valid point of view does in this case depend on how you want to count the cases.

Now the real truth is there are probably already more out there. We have people all over who are 'self quarantined' and waiting to see what happens, and to pedros point we apparently don't have enough test kits to fully get on this situation. So it's only going to get worse.


As for Trump, I don't think much of him, but politicians don't intentionally harm themselves with things like not getting testing done on something like this, b/c that's a clear loser. So something else is going on.

Like the HHS quarantine breach. Lots of times it's simply dumb people in the chain of command making very dumb decisions. Happens all the time and isn't necessarily a conspiracy or even political, more "cover your ass" type thinking by people who weren't elected to anything.

Look at the Flint water situation. Letting kids drink lead in the water b/c they just didn't want to own up to it and maybe lose their jobs. Happens all the time in government and business.

That's my guess here. Either that or there's a powerful political interest somewhere being stroked, but this is really too serious for that to play. Even a pure politician with no science background can see this thing is a potential nuclear situation, even regular politics won't win out in the face of that kind of political threat.

[CitizenBBN]

BTW, his comment on the vaccine is the same thing. He says it's being developed "rapidly". OK, we all know that means at best a year to year and a half unless we suspend a lot of safety testing.

Is that a lie? Is it misleading? I find it misleading in that a year is a very rapid development cycle for a vaccine, but clearly the average person wouldn't think a year is "rapidly" in response to this outbreak.

But that's Trump. I'm not really concerned with what he says but what he does. I had to accept that when he won b/c that's really what matters and what he says is all over the place.

So if they really are working rapidly on a vaccine then great. If they really are holding up testing kit options then obviously not great at all. Those things I care about, but what he says means as much to me as a coach explaining a loss.

[CitizenBBN]

This is about to get a lot more political. 2 cases in Mexico.

That "open border" idea just got a lot more interesting.

[ukpumacat]

He just called it the Dems “next hoax”. I mean come on.

[CitizenBBN]

He just called it the Dems “next hoax”. I mean come on.

There have been so many, can you blame him?

Are you expecting him to suddenly start being precise in his tweets?

And yes, I do think the media are showing their "if it bleeds it leads" colors in this, making it sound like the zombie apocalypse. Yes it's serious, I'm probably more worried about it than most on here b/c my business is very sensitive to these kinds of events, but it's not worthy of clearing the grocery stores and shutting down the economy either.

I recall Winston Churchill during the Blitz. Trump isn't 1% of the statesman of Churchill, but he did try to do much the same thing. as London was leveled the government line was "Keep Calm and Carry on". Very British. If Trump said that he'd be ridiculed to high heaven, but I think he's trying to give us the Trump version of that approach, which is to downplay it so no one loses their heads.

And that's the right approach. In the blitz stores with no roofs would put up humorous signs as they opened. They just brushed it off in a way that steeled them from the effects significantly.

We need that kind of calm resolve, not panic.

And, given a NYT suggestion we call this the Trumpvirus, I'd say he may not be far off on how the other side is willing to politicize this against him. Both sides will, that's the world.

[bigsky]

‪“Have you bought masks?” Seems to me to be the measure of how seriously a person is taking this pandemic. I have not. Well, except for those I wrapped around bottles of beer for a picture on Instagram...‬

On the stock market side it seems to be virus plus (virus=Bernie).

On the political side, what a bunch of clowns they all are.

[Catonahottinroof]

Regardless of his response, it would be perceived as wrong by the left. No matter what it was. So he has a point in putting it that way.

He just called it the Dems “next hoax”. I mean come on.

[ukpumacat]

There will never be a time where I simply brush off the President of the United States tweeting lies or inane stuff and go, “Well, that’s just Trump being Trump”.

This is a terribly serious virus and situation and him tweeting this stuff and continuing to say it to the cameras should be outrageous to all of us.
And it matters. These tweets matter. How people and agencies respond to this matters.
We don’t know what this will be yet, but...
How W responded to 9/11 mattered. Overall, he handled it extremely well. I thought so at the time and said so. And I didn’t vote for him.
If he had of tweeted the day after 9/11, “Just another Dem hoax” it would have mattered.
The fact that Trump always does this stuff doesn’t make it any less outrageous and wrong.