Coronavirus

[Doc]

The main point is not the taxes. The main benefit is keeping people EMPLOYED over welfare/unemployment

[Catfan73]

I just got something claiming that Ibuprophen (advil) is a catalyst for coronavirus. Those who took it got exponentially sicker. Those who took acetominophen (tylenol) for relief when they started feeling ill did well. Might be an urban legend

I’ve had three people send that to me today and I haven’t taken anything but Tylenol in years. I’ve seen reports that it’s all the NSAID’s—Advil, Motrin, Aleve, even aspirin. But I’ve also seen it lumped under Coronavirus disinformation. Still, probably best to play it safe for now.

[KSRBEvans]

Quick testing (5-13 minutes) in volume is on the way, starting next week:

Screen Shot 2020-03-27 at 9.42.18 PM.jpg

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/...96001958981632

[KSRBEvans]

OK, this is my first time trying to read a medical paper, but they just published a report on the first 775 British patients critically ill with Covid 19. The last table:

Screen Shot 2020-03-27 at 10.00.39 PM.jpg

So if you're a young hefty female who requires no assistance with daily activities and no comorbidites, looks like you've got a great shot. (Probably doesn't describe too many of us here.)

The whole thing can be found here:

https://www.icnarc.org/About/Latest-...-With-Covid-19

[Doc]

Quick testing (5-13 minutes) in volume is on the way, starting next week:

Screen Shot 2020-03-27 at 9.42.18 PM.jpg

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/...96001958981632

Evil big pharma likely making a shitload of $$$ on this! Profitting on the suffering of people

[CitizenBBN]

Quick testing (5-13 minutes) in volume is on the way, starting next week:

Screen Shot 2020-03-27 at 9.42.18 PM.jpg

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/...96001958981632

I would think potentially huge in being able to really get data mapping going on what we're up against, and isolate people as needed very quickly, while NOT isolating those who don't need it.

Could be the key to better targeting of who is "stay at home" and who can "go about their lives".

[CitizenBBN]

The main point is not the taxes. The main benefit is keeping people EMPLOYED over welfare/unemployment

And there's the rub.

Kingcat -- I've been working on those parts of the bill for some days, and just got releases from Barr's office I will read tomorrow.

There are catches to it though that make it tough to use versus Doc's point.

Here's what it comes down to: the way this bill is structured it's better to NOT take the SBA money and just lay off everyone. That's how the math works out for this due to the massive unemployment supplements versus how much is allocated to small business.

I'm about 80% sure on that right now, hope to be 100% but Monday/Tuesday so we can plan the next couple of weeks.

But while this was a necessary bill, it's badly structured by people who largely don't know a thing about incentive based economics. They want to help people, but with no regard to the incentives they create.

If you give everyone who gets laid off a RAISE, you're going to get a lot of layoffs, even with the SBA money.

In fact, you can bring people back for so many hours and they still get their unemployment, and I think 100% of their $600 weekly Federal money, and only get an adjustment in their state money.

So employers who are slack but not shut down can lay everyone off, use them hourly with it only lowering their state payment, and the employees end up with MORE money per week than they have staying on full time. The employees are happy, the employer slashes payroll and still can operate at the slack capacity. There's no reason to keep them on with this structure.

[kingcat]

And there's the rub.

Kingcat -- I've been working on those parts of the bill for some days, and just got releases from Barr's office I will read tomorrow.

There are catches to it though that make it tough to use versus Doc's point.

Here's what it comes down to: the way this bill is structured it's better to NOT take the SBA money and just lay off everyone. That's how the math works out for this due to the massive unemployment supplements versus how much is allocated to small business.

I'm about 80% sure on that right now, hope to be 100% but Monday/Tuesday so we can plan the next couple of weeks.

But while this was a necessary bill, it's badly structured by people who largely don't know a thing about incentive based economics. They want to help people, but with no regard to the incentives they create.

If you give everyone who gets laid off a RAISE, you're going to get a lot of layoffs, even with the SBA money.

In fact, you can bring people back for so many hours and they still get their unemployment, and I think 100% of their $600 weekly Federal money, and only get an adjustment in their state money.

So employers who are slack but not shut down can lay everyone off, use them hourly with it only lowering their state payment, and the employees end up with MORE money per week than they have staying on full time. The employees are happy, the employer slashes payroll and still can operate at the slack capacity. There's no reason to keep them on with this structure.

I hope it benefits you and others in some way.

[KSRBEvans]

This guy here is double-tough. When they start doing the plasma treatment with survivors' plasma, I want his:
________________________

Meanwhile, a 101-year-old man was released from hospital after recovering from the coronavirus, Gloria Lisi, the deputy mayor of the Italian city of Rimini, has said.

The man, who has been named only as "Mr. P," was admitted to hospital in Rimini, northeast Italy, last week after testing positive for Covid-19 and left the hospital on Thursday.

Lisi said his "truly extraordinary" recovery gave "hope for the future."

"Mr. P made it. The family brought him home yesterday evening. To teach us that even at 101 years the future is not written," she said.

Mr. P was born in 1919, during the Spanish flu pandemic, which is estimated to have killed between 30 million and 50 million people worldwide.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/europ...ntl/index.html

[Doc]

This guy here is double-tough. When they start doing the plasma treatment with survivors' plasma, I want his:
________________________

Meanwhile, a 101-year-old man was released from hospital after recovering from the coronavirus, Gloria Lisi, the deputy mayor of the Italian city of Rimini, has said.

The man, who has been named only as "Mr. P," was admitted to hospital in Rimini, northeast Italy, last week after testing positive for Covid-19 and left the hospital on Thursday.

Lisi said his "truly extraordinary" recovery gave "hope for the future."

"Mr. P made it. The family brought him home yesterday evening. To teach us that even at 101 years the future is not written," she said.

Mr. P was born in 1919, during the Spanish flu pandemic, which is estimated to have killed between 30 million and 50 million people worldwide.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/europ...ntl/index.html

His great great grand son was tough too. (Mr P fathered Mr Q who fathered Mr R who fathered Mr S who was Mr T's father). Don't " Pity da fool"!

[Catfan73]

Might be an urban lengend or a marketing strategy from the makers of tylenol, but I will keep on acetomin (excedrin migraine) which I have been taking due to a 3 day migraine

I’m more concerned at this point with the lisinopril I take for hbp. From Infection Control Today:

There is mounting consensus that ACE inhibitors may be a primary driver of the severe symptoms. The concerns were originally raised in the Lancet.2 ACE inhibitors up regulate (increase) the ACE2 receptor. This is the receptor the COVID-19 virus uses to attack the lungs.

Of course they aren’t going to tell everyone to stop taking their blood pressure meds but this has me really concerned. A couple of months ago I got my MD to drop my dosage from 20 mg to 10, which is what my wife takes. I’m about to start cutting them in half.

[Catonahottinroof]

New York up to 2372 cases per million.

[bigsky]

I dont take lisinopril anymore. I take losartan. Same kind of thing right?

[ukpumacat]

President Trump was talking about possibly doing a mandatory quarantine around New York, New Jersey, etc. I agree with that but I feel like it should have been done 2 weeks ago. He said it was after talking to the Gov of Florida as too many New Yorkers were going there. But its too late Imo.

Again, I just think we need a 2 week-30 day shut down all across the country. That is the only way to get ahead of this thing instead of playing catch up. This thing is everywhere. Its in every state. And unless people stay home its going to keep spreading.

[bigsky]

Once we are “ahead of it”
Then what? See “flattening the curve” seems the same as “postponing the inevitable”.

[kingcat]

Hopefully when the time comes many get the virus there are adequate personnel and medical supplies to keep us alive as well as breakthroughs in treatment.

Im in no hurry to test the capacity of our State's medical system. (Although there is room for argument sooner is maybe better for those considered..expendable)

[kingcat]

As for the unemployment question. I do not believe that six hundred dollar bump will extend beyond three and a half months unless another such stimulus bill is passed.

And I would think that if allowed back to work and anyone refused, they will lose their benefit and the ten grand would still become a grant.
The incentive remains to work if so.

Certainly not a boon for the employer by any stretch, but maybe a tool to make the best of the situation for some.

[ukpumacat]

Once we are “ahead of it”
Then what? See “flattening the curve” seems the same as “postponing the inevitable”.

Absolutely. That is what it is. Its postponing the inevitable.

But two major things are accomplished:

1. We buy crucial time = this spreads out people contracting it and not overloading the hospitals. It allows crucial medical equipment to be purchased or made (masks, gowns, ventilators, etc). It allows time for more testing on medicine (NY is testing 1,000 patients right now with the drug Trump talked about) to find some that work to treat the virus. And if we find one that works, it allows it to be made. It allows more time to create the vaccine (which is certainly a year away but at least we get closer). And it gets us warmer weather which they are hoping helps flatten the curve as well (I am skeptical on this but it can't hurt).
All of these things above would save thousands of lives.

2. It allows us to quarantine outbreaks as they occur. Without transmission, much of the virus will be killed. But once things begin to "go back to normal", it begins to spread again. BUT...we will then (because of #1) have the broad testing we need (and Imo should have had all along). We would be able to test people en mass and shut down smaller areas vs the entire economy. IT begins a more targeted approach.

The bottom line is that our economy will never get going again until this thing is defeated. Never. People will be scared. They will largely avoid retail and restaurants and bars, etc. In two weeks from now, thousands will be dying a day. We will be reading about loved ones and friends dying on twitter and Facebook. It becomes personal and real. There is no way the economy is humming again in that scenario.
But if we can largely kill it with a National Quarantine, and then prepare, prepare, prepare. People can slowly get back to normal. IT would be a new normal for a while but we can test and treat with much more efficiency.

Imo, its the only real way to deal with this.

[ukpumacat]

I just continue to revert back to the chart I have looked at every day (I have to have my ocd obsession with stats and analytics fueled with something else since Sports is shut down). This chart CLEARLY shows how well the shut downs work.
We are days away from Florida, Illinois and Louisiana passing California in total cases. Those states have been extremely slow in doing a statewide lockdown. California was the first. And we did so with far fewer cases than any other state.

Once its lifted, no doubt it will spread like crazy here. But, we will be FAR more prepared to handle it. Testing. Hospitals. Etc. I am very anxious about the amount of deaths we are likely to see in some of these states. And it could have been avoided. Yes, they will be "beyond the curve" faster than California. But there will be thousands dead because of it.

Attachment 9277

[Catfan73]

I dont take lisinopril anymore. I take losartan. Same kind of thing right?

Losartan is an “ARB” which unfortunately they think may cause the same issues. We may have to try old fashioned diuretics or beta blockers.

[CitizenBBN]

As for the unemployment question. I do not believe that six hundred dollar bump will extend beyond three and a half months unless another such stimulus bill is passed.

And I would think that if allowed back to work and anyone refused, they will lose their benefit and the ten grand would still become a grant.
The incentive remains to work if so.

Certainly not a boon for the employer by any stretch, but maybe a tool to make the best of the situation for some.

Right now the bump is short term.

And yes if you call an employee back and they don't come then they have "quit" and are not going to get UE.

It's not the end of the world the way it's done, but had it capped at 100% of salary that would make WAY more sense.

The biggest issue is employees would rather be laid off than work. Most want to do some kind of work, but to get a raise and not work? Big incentive.

And in fact even with the SBA money it may pay employers to do it. You can bring people back for so many hours, so if you're slack right now you lay people off, bring them in limited hours. That comes out of their state UE, but not the $600 bonus, so net they are ahead and your payroll is way down.

The SBA money as I read it requires holding everyone on payroll through June 30, and doesn't even forgive enough to cover even your payroll through that period (about 3 months right now).

Still digging through it all, but right now the way Congress wrote it you'll see MORE unemployment I think, not less b/c of this bill.

I think you can get the SBA $10K without having to retain, so you lay off, take your smaller but no strings attached grant, and you'll be better off if this lasts 90 days.

Now if it only lasts 30 or 60 then SBA may pay, but who is willing to bet their business that this is done in 30 or no more than 60 days?

[kingcat]

Right now the bump is short term.

And yes if you call an employee back and they don't come then they have "quit" and are not going to get UE.

It's not the end of the world the way it's done, but had it capped at 100% of salary that would make WAY more sense.

The biggest issue is employees would rather be laid off than work. Most want to do some kind of work, but to get a raise and not work? Big incentive.

And in fact even with the SBA money it may pay employers to do it. You can bring people back for so many hours, so if you're slack right now you lay people off, bring them in limited hours. That comes out of their state UE, but not the $600 bonus, so net they are ahead and your payroll is way down.

The SBA money as I read it requires holding everyone on payroll through June 30, and doesn't even forgive enough to cover even your payroll through that period (about 3 months right now).

Still digging through it all, but right now the way Congress wrote it you'll see MORE unemployment I think, not less b/c of this bill.

I think you can get the SBA $10K without having to retain, so you lay off, take your smaller but no strings attached grant, and you'll be better off if this lasts 90 days.

Now if it only lasts 30 or 60 then SBA may pay, but who is willing to bet their business that this is done in 30 or no more than 60 days?

Gotcha. I'm certain there will be increased unemployment because of it. I have to believe it will still be a huge help to a large portion of working Americans.

[CitizenBBN]

Gotcha. I'm certain there will be increased unemployment because of it. I have to believe it will still be a huge help to a large portion of working Americans.

It's a bill we needed, I've been rabid about getting it done, but it's got some obvious flaws.

It clearly incentivizes layoffs versus retention. It does some to help retention, but not enough compared to what it does for layoffs. That's to be expected, politically they'll get more votes from what they are doing. that's their math.

It's far better than nothing, and we had no choice but to do something fast, so it's good, but there will be a lot of consequences from it they didn't expect.

[CitizenBBN]

Here's a GIS map of where those spring breakers just on Ft. Lauderdale beach went and took their germs:

https://twitter.com/TectonixGEO/stat...ad-from-travel

You have to wait for them to zoom in, pick a sample, and then the map. It's the last half or so of the video.

[kingcat]

The ability to do that is not surprising in this day and age.

But still fascinating to me.

[goodycat]

Losartan is an “ARB” which unfortunately they think may cause the same issues. We may have to try old fashioned diuretics or beta blockers.

I take lisinopril and I’ve read as much as I can about this. The bottom line is any concern about increased risk is speculative at this point. Also, apparently it is possible that this class of medication could help battle against COVID-19 rather than creating a higher risk for serious illness.

[dan_bgblue]

CBBN you waited to long. The Keys have been closed for the duration.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/florida-s...nother-hotspot

[Catonahottinroof]

That started yesterday. If your ID doesn’t show residence in Monroe County or necessary presence there, you couldn’t enter. That pic is on US 41 about 40 miles from where I’m at..

CBBN you waited to long. The Keys have been closed for the duration.

[CitizenBBN]

Yep. Hoping they do OK.

I'll be back when this is over.

[KSRBEvans]

Now's not the time I guess, but when this thing's over, whenever that is, the world needs to have a reckoning with China. They shut down the wet markets after SARS but then allowed them to reopen, starting this latest cycle. Then they concealed it and punished the doctors who tried to warn the world what was happening. Now this:

Screen Shot 2020-03-28 at 10.25.07 PM.jpg

https://twitter.com/smithmarion/stat...65745451069446