It does seem many of the projections are assuming fairly widespread infection, well beyond what has actually been confirmed with testing.Originally Posted by PedroDaGr8
It does seem many of the projections are assuming fairly widespread infection, well beyond what has actually been confirmed with testing.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
This is the hope. If tons of people have had it then it bodes well for several reasons:
- Lower death rate
- Herd Immunity faster
- Lower hospitilization rate
But, it really just depends on "how many have had it".
We are like many others. We think we may have had it in late January. We went skiing for a weekend and my wife developed all of these exact symptoms and we had to leave early. We came home and called to get a prescription because she had coughed so much she had lost her voice. They asked her, "Have you been to China in the last 14 days" and when we said no they didn't test her for anything and just assumed it was a "cold".
But she had a pretty awful fever and dry cough.
Those symptoms spread to everyone in our family within a couple of weeks (except me).
Needless to say, like others, its wishful thinking. But we are hoping we have had it.
~Puma~
I love the Science happening all over.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...anger-n1178436
~Puma~
That's why I know this will be OK. We'll lose some people, no doubt about it, but we'll be amazed how fast people will come up with solutions.
I have great faith in American ingenuity, and the whole world's medical researchers are working on this problem. Other than China, where they disappear you for admitting they have a problem. The ones that remain are no doubt trying to figure out how to fool FDA inspectors for drugs they sell to us and fill them with lead and asbestos.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
Kentucky is 47th nationally in number of cases/million:
Screen Shot 2020-04-08 at 12.23.24 PM.jpg
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
U really think players are going to duke without being paid over Kentucky?--Gilbert Arenas, 9/12/19
Kentucky is doing great. The big fear among many now is that non-Kentuckians will come here as a "safe haven" and bring it.
Some days you can't win for losing.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
Stop them at the borders and tell them they need to show proof of 14 day quarantine before being allowed to cross the border. They also need proof of where they are going to live and for how long.
Those damn Yankees and Volunteers need to stay where they belong.
seeya
dan
I'm just one stomach flu away from my goal weight.
Is this what you call the Hoosier daddies and The Ohio Navy? lol
That and a few other things.
seeya
dan
I'm just one stomach flu away from my goal weight.
This is why we needed a 30 day National Quarantine. Some states (like Kentucky) took this very seriously. Some didn’t.
When we are on the other side of the curve and the reins begin to loosen up, it going to be the “some didn’t s” that get this thing going again.
This article is not encouraging. I saw another new one today that does not think the summer will help.
I can tell you this, I would not want to be the President right now.
I don’t think there is going to be an easy way to handle this.
He’s obviously itching to lift these restrictions but America simply isn’t built to deal well with this afterwards. They can’t track cased by cell phone data like China. People are going to ignore masks quickly. And ignore large gathering restrictions.
We aren’t ready for the testing.
I honestly have no idea what he should do because the government cannot pay everyone’s salary for 3 more months.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/09/w...ntl/index.html
Part of the problem with running trillion dollar deficits for infinity during good times is when the bad times hit, everyone assumes we can just run higher deficits to pay everybody for as long as it takes. So your Average Guy or Gal out there sees "the government cannot pay everyone's salary for 3 more months" and says "Why not?"
But the restrictions on living will not sit well for much longer, and the optimisitic projections are just going to fuel people's desire to "return to normalcy." And at this point we're not ready for another wave of this. Maybe by fall, but not summer. I very much hope I'm wrong.
U really think players are going to duke without being paid over Kentucky?--Gilbert Arenas, 9/12/19
I agree. We are not. Our front line workers are exhausted. I have several friends who are Dr's and nurses and they are simply spent.
People are overall doing a good job with this lockdown but they will not if it happens again in the summer. We will begin to see a lot of rule breaking and a lot of frustrated people. That could easily lead to a lot of looting etc.
~Puma~
One of the reasons why I don't see Trump as having done a bad job is that most PResidents honestly get through their terms with no major crisis at all. A few minor ones maybe, but few that are like this, i.e. war level events.
And judged by that standard we're doing pretty well. Deaths are down, no one has lost their minds, there isn't looting and rioting. We're hanging in there. That's a win.
But I agree we're early into this process, and it could still get ugly. Trump's off the cuff over the top way of communicating isn't useful, but his ability to make decisions and project strength is helpful.
But he's far from out of the woods, as are we all.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
I doubt we see that simply b/c we we're writing everyone a check to be good. As long as the money holds out were great.
As BEvans pointed out, the issue is we've been spending like fools while times were good instead of paying off our debts, so now when we really need debt capacity we're racking up deficits we'll never pay off.
I do think we'd better come up with some way to operate at a higher capacity and still keep this thing down to a dull roar. Maybe 100% masks is a way to go, it's certainly the approach in Asia. Simply require masks in all public places, no questions asked. Not sure if that's enough.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
Trump could have taken this bull by the horns, acted presidential, and basically wrapped up his re-election. Instead he’s basically done the exact opposite and it’s reflected in the polls where he trails Biden by 6-8 points across the board. He’s his own worst enemy.
On the lighter side:
C120FD8B-E284-4915-903F-EBA35EBD54A5.jpg
U really think players are going to duke without being paid over Kentucky?--Gilbert Arenas, 9/12/19
So, an update on this. Several of us were guessing why they had zero deaths in June and July on the models with restrictions in place through the end of May.
They have now updated their FAQ page to address this very question. The answer is very optimistic and hopeful, albeit still surprising to me.
When can social distancing measures be relaxed?
Our model assumes social distancing stays in place until the pandemic, in its current phase, reaches the point when deaths are less than 0.3 per million people. Based on our latest projections, we expect social distancing measures to be in place through the end of May.
The timeline could change based on what data show about the trajectory of the pandemic. In the meantime, we are working to forecast what would happen if social distancing measures are lifted before the pandemic is under control, and we will share these projections as soon as our work is complete.
Our forecasts of zero deaths in July and August assume that appropriate measures are put in place to guard against the reintroduction of COVID-19 from another state or country. These measures may include mass screening, contact tracing, testing of all individuals entering the country, and quarantine of people who test positive. Details on what these strategies need to be will be analyzed in future editions of the forecasts.
Will we need social distancing until there is a vaccine?
By the end of May, when we anticipate transmission will drop to a very low level, most people are still likely to be susceptible to the disease. Until a vaccine is developed, some social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nationwide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine.
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs
Last edited by ukpumacat; 04-10-2020 at 02:02 PM.
~Puma~
If the above is true...let's keep these measures in place and get rid of this damned thing. I am still skeptical that is what would happen but those people are much smarter than I am.
~Puma~
Odds are it will never be "zero", any more than the flu will be zero. Only way to get it to zero would be it goes by the way of Polio and is eradicated, which would take years if not decades.
Aging is an extraordinary process where you become the person you always should have been.--David Bowie.
Agreed. But I will take the optimism. ha
~Puma~
They mention "contact tracing". That's a useful tool for this, but one we probably could never implement.
I've been wondering how South Korea did so well. One of the ways is they have done a LOT Of tracing, including public reporting of people who are infected so those who were around them could come in. The US has actual laws against that kind of reporting.
I personally think in this case it's a good idea, but we haven't implemented it at all, e.g. publishing in the papers the names of the infected.
They also GPS track the phones, etc. Again, a privacy issue in the US.
I'm for suspending that for medical and health reasons, but I have yet to see anyone from either party recommend those moves.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
Trump briefly mentioned it today. Apple and Google actually worked together to create this.
We can use it if we want to.
Like you, I think we should.
Funny, it took the Coronavirus to get a libertarian and a liberal to agree....and of all things it’s on data tracing. Ha
But honestly, I’m all for whatever will get the economy working while keeping this thing at bay.
FWIW, I did read that Apple and Google are making it all voluntary. And to be honest, I think a lot of people will participate in that right now. A LOT.
It isn't just the science. People (and the markets) haven't fully evaluated the innovations to come from the shutdowns. People and businesses have scrambled to survive. In the process many are reinventing themselves. Even restaurants are finding new ways to survive. One restaurant owner here in Birmingham has added a grocery to his business. He is selling the chicken he can't serve in the restaurant to customers who can't find chicken and beef in the grocery stores. One of my great friends owns a grocery/deli/butcher shop. Profit came largely from the lunchtime deli business which has been been decimated by the shutdown. But he has found a way to get meat much faster from his suppliers to grow the butcher and grocery part of his business. When normalcy returns he has plans for an immediate expansion. People managing business are really learning during this period. And what they are learning is going to spark innovation across the country.
The only thing in my lifetime that I can compare this era of innovation to was when I worked in Atlanta during the '96 Olympics. We shutdown our headquarters, a 46 story office building, and told everyone to work from home. Everyone clamored that it would be lost business for a month from which we never would recover. We found a way to get laptops in every employee's hands, and being in ATL we accelerated the rollout of fiber cable to the areas with the largest residential concentration of our employees. These were the days when work at home was in its infancy and no businessman took it seriously. What we learned about technology changed the way it was deployed.
While the anti-Trump press will focus on those who have been harmed in the last month, they will miss the real story of what has been learned and how it will change business....forever. That's one reason why buying into this market may be a great idea
Real Fan since 1958
Agreed.
~Puma~
This page is fascinating to me (if not scary to some). It tracks by data and grades states on how well they are doing the "Stay at Home" orders.
Very interesting to see the difference based on red states and blue states.
https://www.unacast.com/covid19/soci...ard#scoreboard
~Puma~
I have concern about the tracing and monitoring.
That is genie you don’t put back in the bottle. Technology already limits our liberty. People will sign up for this in droves.
This is a remedy worse than the disease.
Sincere Christians will rebel at anything that resembles the mark of the beast...to the death (as would I) So facial recognition (a huge no-no for me) or hand/thumb prints (also) are out as far as an economic and social hall pass goes.
Anything that severe would 100% signal the end and Christ's quick return, imo.
That's not to say it cannot be implemented in stages and fool many.
Last edited by kingcat; 04-11-2020 at 01:06 PM.
“Before I leave I’d like to see our politics begin to return to the purposes and practices that distinguish our history from the history of other nations,
“I would like to see us recover our sense that we are more alike than different. We are citizens of a republic made of shared ideals forged in a new world to replace the tribal enmities that tormented the old one. Even in times of political turmoil such as these, we share that awesome heritage and the responsibility to embrace it.”
-Patriot and Senator. John McCain
You can’t stop technology, though Washington bureaucrats believe they are intellectually superior enough and powerful enough to do it. Let’s see the benefits of what these two China centric companies can do for the US. As I said the amount of innovation that is currently being unleashed in terms of the urgency with which it is being deployed is incredible. This technology is probably no more harmful to the average citizen that what the Russians and Chinese have unleashed on the world.
Real Fan since 1958
I’m not wanting to get into a religious discussion, but most Christians would consider his return a good thing, no?
And more importantly, this has been said since literally 33 AD. His generation expected his return.
In the year 1,000 parts of the world shut down because they were so convinced of the rapture.
I remember billboards all over in Kentucky and Tennessee (like literally everywhere) when I was 12 because it was the “Rapture in 88”.
Obama was the antichrist. Until he wasn’t. Same with a zillion other people.
When the first credit card went global Christians all over said the same thing: “I will never get one. It’s the mark of the beast”.
But it wasn’t.
And this isn’t either.
If it can save lives (and I think it would) I’m all for it.
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