Pick the Favorite

[Catfan73]

Going to try a new game for anyone that’s interested, using the same point spreads Darrell uses in the sup game. This time around you can only pick favorites and they have to cover the point spread in order for you to cash. To spread your risk (or make it worse) you can pick up to three favorites at 10 KSR bucks each, no more, no less—so you can “wager” only 10 if you choose or 20 or 30. Each game you lose will carry a 10% vig penalty so you can win as much as 30 or lose as much as 33 each week. I’m curious to see if the favorites we pick beat the spread more than 50% of the time. If we get enough interested participants we’ll keep going thru the rest of the season and crown a champion. This week’s games:

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 3
Temple -11.5 EAST CAROLINA
Georgia Southern -11.5 SOUTH ALABAMA

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 4
Central Florida -4.5 CINCINNATI
SAN JOSE STATE -7 New Mexico

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 5
Air Force -2.5 NAVY
ALA.-BIRMINGHAM -8.5 Rice
COLORADO -3 Arizona
Arkansas State -7.5 GEORGIA STATE
Tulane -3.5 ARMY WEST POINT
Auburn -3 FLORIDA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS -4.5 Ball State
KANSAS STATE -2 Baylor
Boise State -24 NEVADA-LAS VEGAS
LOUISVILLE -4.5 Boston College
NOTRE DAME -45.5 Bowling Green
Ohio -3.5 BUFFALO
OREGON -18 California
Eastern Michigan -5 CENTRAL MICHIGAN
San Diego State -7 COLORADO STATE
South Florida -11 CONNECTICUT
DUKE -5.5 Pittsburgh
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL -26.5 Massachusetts
Georgia -25.5 TENNESSEE
North Carolina -10 GEORGIA TECH
MINNESOTA -14 Illinois
MICHIGAN -4.5 Iowa
IOWA STATE -4 Texas Christian
Oklahoma -35.5 KANSAS
WISCONSIN -37 Kent State
Liberty -6 NEW MEXICO STATE
Memphis -16.5 LOUISIANA-MONROE
LOUISIANA STATE -26 Utah State
Marshall -5 MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Maryland -13 RUTGERS
MIAMI (FLA) -13.5 Virginia Tech
OHIO STATE -20.5 Michigan State
MISSISSIPPI -7 Vanderbilt
MISSOURI -24.5 Troy
NEBRASKA -7.5 Northwestern
Oklahoma State -10 TEXAS TECH
Western Kentucky -2.5 OLD DOMINION
UCLA -5.5 Oregon State
PENN STATE -27.5 Purdue
SOUTHERN METHODIST -13 Tulsa
Washington -15 STANFORD
Texas -11 WEST VIRGINIA
TOLEDO -2.5 Western Michigan
Utsa -2 TEXAS-EL PASO

[Catfan73]

Iowa St. -4
UAB -8.5
Duke -5.5

[Darrell KSR]

I will take a look in the morning and post my three games. Good thing this is pretend money.

[kingcat]

Michigan
LSU
Mississippi

[Yeager49]

Maryland
Arkansas St
Boise St

Good idea, by the way....Thanks.

[Catfan73]

I will take a look in the morning and post my three games. Good thing this is pretend money.

It doesn’t have to be three but it is pretend money. I will however be keeping score lol.

[catmanjack]

UCF
Kansas st
UCLA

[MickintheHam]

SDSU
AUBURN
MIAMI

[BigBluePappy]

UCF
UAB
Auburn

[UKFlounder]

Kansas St
SMU
Toledo

[blueboss]

Ole Ms
Louisville
San Jose


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MickintheHam]

It doesn’t have to be three but it is pretend money. I will however be keeping score lol.

Once I understand the scoring, I may not do to well.

[Catfan73]

Once I understand the scoring, I may not do to well.

Lol none of us may. One of your “bets” was San Diego State. They’re favored by 7 at Colorado State. If they win by 8 or more, you win 10 points for the game. If they win by 6 or less or they lose, you lose 11 points. We won’t worry about pushes.

If anyone has any ideas or tweaks, I’m all ears.

[Darrell KSR]

LSU (love this one.)
Air Force
Duke

[Catfan73]

Got to get this graded but I’m pretty sure we did better than the 50/50 expected on random picking.

[UKFlounder]

Not me

Got to get this graded but I’m pretty sure we did better than the 50/50 expected on random picking.

[Catfan73]

Okay the results:

Iowa State covered
UAB covered
Duke lost
Michigan covered
LSU covered
Ole Miss covered
Maryland covered
Arkansas St. lost
Boise St. covered
UCF lost
Kansas St. lost
UCLA lost
SDSU covered
Auburn lost
Miami lost
SMU won but failed to cover
Toledo covered
Louisville won but failed to cover
San Jose St. covered
Air Force lost

So we actually went 13-14 overall, not at all what I expected. The curious thing is that out of the 14 we lost on, 12 were actually upsets—only two teams won but failed to cover the spread. I think that’s what my bookie buddy was talking about when he said if you think a team is going to win they’ll probably cover. Otherwise they lose outright usually.

Give yourself +10 for each cover and -11 for each non-cover/loss. I’ll post the results in a different thread and we’ll try it again later this week. Thanks for playing along!

[Darrell KSR]

Okay the results:

Iowa State covered
UAB covered
Duke lost
Michigan covered
LSU covered
Ole Miss covered
Maryland covered
Arkansas St. lost
Boise St. covered
UCF lost
Kansas St. lost
UCLA lost
SDSU covered
Auburn lost
Miami lost
SMU won but failed to cover
Toledo covered
Louisville won but failed to cover
San Jose St. covered
Air Force lost

So we actually went 13-14 overall, not at all what I expected. The curious thing is that out of the 14 we lost on, 12 were actually upsets—only two teams won but failed to cover the spread. I think that’s what my bookie buddy was talking about when he said if you think a team is going to win they’ll probably cover. Otherwise they lose outright usually.

Give yourself +10 for each cover and -11 for each non-cover/loss. I’ll post the results in a different thread and we’ll try it again later this week. Thanks for playing along!

Thanks for doing this, Catfan73. Very fun.

[Darrell KSR]

The curious thing is that out of the 14 we lost on, 12 were actually upsets—only two teams won but failed to cover the spread. I think that’s what my bookie buddy was talking about when he said if you think a team is going to win they’ll probably cover. Otherwise they lose outright usually.

I have heard that before.

[UKFlounder]

So to pick a team that wins but does not cover is just bad luck. I think I’m sticking with that story