Buttigieg is making a nice run since I last posted about him being on the rise. He's up in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire.
SO....I am officially changing my prediction as of 11/22.
Trump over Biden in one of the closest elections in American History.
As you all know, I hope I'm wrong. But, its my honest prediction at this point.
My reasoning:
1. Buttigieg has too much ground to make up in South Carolina and Nevada because he simply doesn't even register for minorities.
2. If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire (and he might), he will certainly get a bump nationally. But I just don't think he can make up the kind of ground he needs to make up in order to win the nomination.
3. I think his rise is at the cost of Warren. NOT Biden. Its easy to think it would be Biden and I've seen many talking heads say it. But if you look at the polls, Biden's numbers haven't budged. Its true, moderate voters like both Biden and Buttigieg, but the voters he is getting are the educated white voters. That's Warren territory.
4. If Warren does not win Iowa or New Hampshire, she simply cannot win the nomination. Those states are tailor made for her.
5. Sanders isn't dropping out. And they will split the progressive vote. And Sanders voters are more loyal than Warren's. They aren't leaving him for Buttigieg.
6. I really like Buttigieg. Most do. He could actually beat Trump. He's terribly reasonable, etc. But Biden has the Dem org behind him and I don't think he can overcome that. It would take a colossal meltdown for Biden to lose a ton of voters to him. I would be THRILLED if Buttigieg wins the nomination. I just don't think he can get over that minority hump.
7. I just don't think Biden can beat Trump. He will get more votes than Hillary because they learned their mistake last time around. Trump won't be underestimated this time. People hate him and will come out to vote against him more than even for Biden. But I just think the electoral map still favors Trump.
8. This is a very soft prediction. I still think Trump is very vulnerable because he is losing white suburban women. And that is a constituency he simply cannot lose. But Biden represents the old guard. Will he be enough to push it over the top? I think no, but barely.
9. Just a repeat....I really hope Buttigieg can somehow surprise and keeps marching up the polls.
Bookmarks