Some forecasters have Trump winning several of Midwest states.Originally Posted by bigsky
Some forecasters have Trump winning several of Midwest states.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ZP1CqS0EtvQnug
Here is RCP Electoral map. Biden has a lock on 216 Electoral Votes. Trump has a lock on 125. There are 197 Electoral votes in battle ground states. Here are the states, the Electoral votes and the RCP poll numbers. The present national RCP average has Biden up 7.4%. Four years ago it had Clinton up 2.9%. Almost exactly the final result.
Wisconsin (10) Biden + 6.4%
Minnesota (10) Biden + 4.7%
North Carolina (15) Biden + 0.6%
Florida (29) Biden + 1.2%
Georgia (16) Biden + 0.4%
Pennsylvania (20) Biden + 3.6%
Ohio (18) Tie
Michigan (16) Biden + 6.5%
Iowa (6) Biden + 1.0%
AZ (11) Tie
Nevada (6) Biden + 4.0%
Texas (38) Trump + 2.3%
The remaining two Electoral votes are Nebraska CD 2 and Maine CD 2. One vote each.
They were pulled. What you said above happened some in Florida. But in Wisconsin, he pulled many of his ads in early October.
~Puma~
Yep.
~Puma~
Here are the last 4 National Elections. The Final RCP averages and the election result:
2004: Bush +2.6 (Bush +2.4)
2008: Obama +6.5 (Obama +7.3)
2012: Obama +0.1 (Obama +3.9)
2016: Clinton +1.6 (Clinton +2.1)
2020: Biden +7.4 ( )
As you can see, the national polls tend to be VERY very good. Could that change this year? Yes. But I wouldn't bet on it. Btw, I have heard the magic number is 5. Meaning, if Biden wins nationally by 5 points it is statistically impossible for Trump to win the electoral college (meaning not enough pad votes in California, New York etc to make up for the difference). I saw an analysis of it somewhere and if I can find it I will post it. But its something like if Biden wins by 1-2, its like 60/40 Trump wins. If Biden wins by 3, its 70-30 he wins. If he wins by 4 its like 90-10. And if he wins by 5 its 99%.
Don't quote me on those but its something like that. Just another thing to watch on election night.
~Puma~
Here is an awesome link to an article that has every single state, what time their polls close and when we will know the results from that state (when they count early vote, etc.).
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...esults-timing/
~Puma~
But its something like if Biden wins by 1-2, its like 60/40 Trump wins. If Biden wins by 3, its 70-30 he wins. If he wins by 4 its like 90-10. And if he wins by 5 its 99%.
Don't quote me on those but its something like that. Just another thing to watch on election night.
I’m pretty sure that was Nate Silver.
changing my signature to change our luck.
Very likely...just can't remember if it was a tweet or on 538 or what. But, those numbers aren't far off that I posted above.
~Puma~
If you want to nerd out with some early voting data by state, here you go:
https://electproject.github.io/Early...20G/index.html
U really think players are going to duke without being paid over Kentucky?--Gilbert Arenas, 9/12/19
Thanks. You know I love to nerd out. Ha
Lots of final polls coming in this week. A few more over the weekend and a couple on Monday and the pollsters are done.
Bottom line is this race has been incredibly steady for months now.
Nationally, Biden has a roughly 8 point lead. Some solid pollsters have him as low as 5, some as high as 11.
Some of the battlegrounds are of course closer. He has a roughly 5 point lead in Pennsylvania just out of the margin of error. The other states he must win he is up in the 7-9 range.
All of this tells us this: Either Biden will win fairly handily. Or the pollsters are just dead wrong (far more wrong than in any election ever) and Trump pulls a stunner.
Most projections now have him with around a 80% chance to win. Trump’s chances are roughly the same odds as needed a 6 in dice and rolling it the first time. It’s possible but unlikely.
The Senate is much much closer. Right around 60% chance for the Dems to take it. So, we shall see.
I will make a more specific prediction on Monday as far as electoral number, Senate seats etc.
Not because anyone cares, but as I said above...I’m a nerd and it’s fun to read the data.
A new Iowa poll dropped tonight that was very good for Trump.
Had him +7. Most other polls have it a dead heat. But this is a very respectable pollster. Just FYI.
If Biden wins, these tab numbers will be why. From a campaign perspective, you can see that Trump's Hunter stuff simply didn't work. 56% found Trump corrupt to Biden's 40%. Tough to convince people that you are "draining the swamp" when they think you are the swamp (and too close to extremists).
Attachment 9767
Last edited by ukpumacat; 11-01-2020 at 11:31 AM.
~Puma~
The ISIS look alikes terrorizing the Biden bus aren’t helping their cause any.
Ps. FBI now investigating this. And no, it doesn’t help one bit.
All of Trumps talk of Law and Order and he retweeted the video of it and said he “loved Texas”. Not gonna play well with the suburban moms he’s trying to catch up with.
Btw, the issue at this point isn’t even Trump. Statistically speaking, he is likely to lose.
The issue is controlling the Senate. The Republicans have a decent shot at keeping control.
That’s who this stuff hurts the most.
All just like Ben Sasse predicted. Trump may not just lose, he might take down the Senate with him.
Just a slew of new polls today. Too many to post about, but if you are interested I would recommend you check them out on realclearpolitics or 538. Tons and tons of great state polling coming in (from some of the best pollsters out there).
Bottom line, if the state polls are just as wrong as they were in 2016 (in Trump's favor), he will still lose by a decent margin electorally. It would take a polling error of colossal proportions for Trump to win. Its possible...but increasingly unlikely.
If they are right, Biden will win easily.
If they are off in Biden's direction (which statistically speaking is just as likely), Biden will win by what would be a modern day landslide.
~Puma~
The polls were actually correct in 2016, they just figured the electoral college wrong. And they always err in favor of the Republican despite what Trump says—sometimes by just a little, sometimes by a lot—making the hopes of a bunch of underrepresented Republicans look like wishful thinking. I think Trump knows he is going to lose and is just trying to muster the troops.
Wisconsin and Pennsylvania look like pretty good bets for Biden. If either Arizona or Florida goes Democrat that’ll put Biden over the top and they don’t really need Florida if they get all of the other three.
changing my signature to change our luck.
I've done all I can do by voting.
Now it's up to the American people and allowing our system to work as it always has in deciding. A great time to be an American!
“Before I leave I’d like to see our politics begin to return to the purposes and practices that distinguish our history from the history of other nations,
“I would like to see us recover our sense that we are more alike than different. We are citizens of a republic made of shared ideals forged in a new world to replace the tribal enmities that tormented the old one. Even in times of political turmoil such as these, we share that awesome heritage and the responsibility to embrace it.”
-Patriot and Senator. John McCain
The National polls were correct in 2016...some of the state polls were off, especially Wisconsin. They say that has been corrected so we will see. But as I said, its just as likely Biden is benefitted with any polling error as Trump.
And Biden does not need Arizona or Florida to win. He gets to 270 as long as he wins Pennsylvania.
~Puma~
Dang.
https://t.co/CtSIOuhfrG
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rnc...o-election-day
Wisconsin ads are part of the $25 million ad buy, the last paragraph lists the states.
I kind of disagree if voting a socialist government happens that is not a great time.
I wont comment other than to say, I've heard about the same boogy man all my life. I've even quoted the same verbatim when I once voted republican.
Personally, and after many years studying it, I know it's a lie meant to tear down democratic forms of government by scaring common folk and in appeasing corporate entities. And it is an old republican battle cry which is as old the hills.
Anything below sound familiar?
On Medicare..
“Having given our pensioners their medical care in kind, why not food baskets, why not public housing accommodations, why not vacation resorts, why not a ration of cigarettes for those who smoke and of beer for those who drink?”
..Senator Barry Goldwater (R-Ariz)
Senator Carl Curtis (R-Neb.) — elected in 1936 on an anti-New Deal platform “[I]t is not needed. It is socialism. It moves the country in a direction which is not good for anyone, whether they be young or old. It charts a course from which there will be no turning back… It is not only socialism – it is brazen socialism.” He later stated, “the insurance industry has a remarkable record,” and added that Medicare “is not public welfare. It is not charity. It is not kindness. It is socialism. Socialism is not the answer to anything.”
..Senator Carl Curtis (R-Neb.) — elected in 1936 on an anti-New Deal platform
Now there are some real issues where republicans have a fair argument with democrats and visa versa. Our ability to compromise and reach across the proverbial isle as citizens to find common ground for the common good is exactly what has set this country apart from all other such endeavors through the centuries. That's what Senator McCain, George Bush, and many others have tried to get across to those who consider themselves conservative. But many have begun to accept radical views meant to divide and destroy our country because social media and radical blogs posing as news outlets have polluted all such discourse on both sides. Each political party has an equal problem, and until we get a handle on such hate and vitriol against our own people..we will each (including some of us here) continue to be exactly what is endangering our great country.
And when our children's, children look back on it, we ourselves will be on the wrong side of history.
Dems aren't any better when it comes to demonizing republicans. But we do not need to go about proving each other correct.
Last edited by kingcat; 11-01-2020 at 11:51 PM.
“Before I leave I’d like to see our politics begin to return to the purposes and practices that distinguish our history from the history of other nations,
“I would like to see us recover our sense that we are more alike than different. We are citizens of a republic made of shared ideals forged in a new world to replace the tribal enmities that tormented the old one. Even in times of political turmoil such as these, we share that awesome heritage and the responsibility to embrace it.”
-Patriot and Senator. John McCain
~Puma~
When it’s between corporate socialism and individual socialism I’ll be in favor of the individual every time. The problem is both parties have been in corporate interests back pockets for decades. The republicans a little more but it’s both.
National polls mean very little, and the polls in battleground states are nearly all within the margin of error. I don't know who will win, but this is going to be a close election. If I were a betting man, I'd say the odds are 60/40 Trump wins.
Just a couple of quick notes...
1. National Polls do matter. Its true, battleground polls matter more, but national polls still matter because they tend to be most accurate. National and state polls have Biden winning. And every race Biden needs to win in order to get to 270 are out of the margin of error (with PA being the closest and just out of the margin of error).
2. Odds aren't a thing we have to guess. We can bet on the race. Right now, Vegas has Biden's odds right around 65/35. The largest bet ever placed on a candidate came in this morning. A 1 million dollar bet on Biden.
~Puma~
We will have to agree to disagree on national polls...they are, IMO, too easily manipulated. And I don't care what the actual odds are, I was giving my opinion. I am prepared for either outcome, but I do think Trump has a legitimate shot. I'm not sure you are ready for a possible Trump victory. Either way...we shall see....
Polls are only as accurate as the data they use. You can’t use faulty models and get an accurate result.
2. Odds aren't a thing we have to guess. We can bet on the race. Right now, Vegas has Biden's odds right around 65/35. The largest bet ever placed on a candidate came in this morning. A 1 million dollar bet on Biden.[/QUOTE]
Soros??
Darryl
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