Presidential Prediction...Our own Crystal Ball

[ukpumacat]

Trump over Biden in a big way. Biden and his family corruption will get exposed.

Trump may very well beat Biden, but that won't be the reason. And I will do my best to take off my left-leaning hat and wear my "breaking down the race" hat.

Dems are voting for Biden. Reps are voting for Trump. So the independents (as always) will decide this election. And I am telling you they just don't care much for this stuff. They statistically don't watch Fox News (or CNBC for that matter).
And they don't care about the dirty laundry on either side. They don't care about Burisma. It gets almost no traction. They don't care about the Trump Foundation or Russia etc. Both sides will accuse the other side of being dirty. So much of this stuff gets thrown out that independents don't even know what to believe. "Truth" has become a bystander. And frankly, to some degree, they all need a lot of purell.

This election will be decided by independents Imo based on a few things:
1. The economy
2. Biden's Age
3. Trump's unpopularity

Biden has at times during this primary just not looked good. Some of that is a stuttering disorder he's had for a long time but some of that is just plain age. We don't live in a day and age where someone sweating during a debate is going to cost an election but if people are scared Biden has dementia, they aren't going to come out and vote for him. Burisma is a waste of the Republicans time. This is the area to hit him the hardest (and they are). We will just see how Biden holds up over the long haul. Trump is only 4 years younger but call him what you want...he certainly is still sharp as a tack.

At the same time, Trump is just very unpopular. A lot of people don't like him. And I am not talking about the, "Trump is a dictator" stuff that gets thrown out a lot. I just mean as a person. He is unlikeable. Independents (often made up of suburban women) just do not like his antics, bullying, lying, etc.

So, will those two things equal themselves out? Maybe. If so, it just will come down to the economy. If things are chugging along and the numbers all look good, Trump is the likely winner. Because people will either stay home and not vote or hold their nose and vote for him anyways.
If, however, the economy is showing cracks (and this coronavirus is not helping), Biden will likely win.

It all won't be that simple. But if often is. They are both very flawed candidates. Trump has his base ramped up more than ever. And Dems will not make the same mistake they did in 2016 when they ignored some key swing states and stayed home assuming Hillary was going win.

I expect it to be terribly close either way.

All just my two cents.

[Doc]

Trump over Biden in a big way. Biden and his family corruption will get exposed.

This...but even if Bidenn wins, at least he osnt a socialist

[CitizenBBN]

Biden vs. Trump? The only prediction I'll make is I think I might watch these debates for once. It's going to be a hoot.

One will claim to have had the best and most "perfect" Presidency in history, and the other will be lucky to remember he's running for the Presidency.

[Doc]

One will claim to have had the best and most "perfect" Presidency in history, and the other will be lucky to remember he's running for the Presidency.

Or both will claim to have the best most perfect presidency...we just have to wait to see what country Joe thimks he was President of

[dan_bgblue]

https://www.foxnews.com/media/exclus...bernie-sanders

[kingcat]

I honestly think Biden in an overwhelming victory. I also believe the Senate will flip causing a slingshot action that may lead the country into extreme internal turmoil and violence.

As it stands one side believes they truly should run the country from a far right perspective and has convinced most of their base that the other half is anti-American. Most would understand a total 180 degree flip and squelch their rhetoric...but a huge segment wont.

And that segment of society could be as dangerous to a democratic society as any in history. Just to be clear, I believe the same thing has only narrowly been avoided to this point by the left.

But then there is also a silent majority in the country which will come forward to decide one way or the other how to move the country in the best and most respectable direction.
This election will be a trial of sorts to see just who has been telling the truth and/or who will stoop to anything under handed.
More election lies accusing millions of cases of voter fraud wont fly in this election. So people had better start being charged and cuffed..

And the two candidates had better be on their best behavior because virtually all of America will act as judge and jury while casting their vote. I guarantee one thing, there will be more people vote in this election by far than any in US history..

So if there is accusation of a crime by a political opponent it better be prosecuted by those who control the DOJ...not only investigated. Those people now know better. So people had better start being charged and cuffed..


Nasty rhetoric, exaggerations, and outright lies won't be accepted as "a part of politics"
Those people have witnessed the danger.. And believe those who do so had better start being charged and cuffed..to save this country.

I also do not want to offend my friends here who support a different philosophy. I respect the right to those opinions as much as my own.
So I wont be engaging in a back and forth which might cause misunderstandings or heated disagreements.
I just don't have a lot of time to type out comprehensive replies.

I am sure of my personal political position however...at least, that they are mine.

[dan_bgblue]

How long before the Hilda Beast enters the conversation?

Candidate to compete with Uncle Joe and the Bern?
Paired with one of the two as a VP vote getter?

[ukpumacat]

I honestly think Biden in an overwhelming victory. I also believe the Senate will flip causing a slingshot action that may lead the country into extreme internal turmoil and violence.

As it stands one side believes they truly should run the country from a far right perspective and has convinced most of their base that the other half is anti-American. Most would understand a total 180 degree flip and squelch their rhetoric...but a huge segment wont.

And that segment of society could be as dangerous to a democratic society as any in history. Just to be clear, I believe the same thing has only narrowly been avoided to this point by the left.

But then there is also a silent majority in the country which will come forward to decide one way or the other how to move the country in the best and most respectable direction.
This election will be a trial of sorts to see just who has been telling the truth and/or who will stoop to anything under handed.
More election lies accusing millions of cases of voter fraud wont fly in this election. So people had better start being charged and cuffed..

And the two candidates had better be on their best behavior because virtually all of America will act as judge and jury while casting their vote. I guarantee one thing, there will be more people vote in this election by far than any in US history..

So if there is accusation of a crime by a political opponent it better be prosecuted by those who control the DOJ...not only investigated. Those people now know better. So people had better start being charged and cuffed..


Nasty rhetoric, exaggerations, and outright lies won't be accepted as "a part of politics"
Those people have witnessed the danger.. And believe those who do so had better start being charged and cuffed..to save this country.

I also do not want to offend my friends here who support a different philosophy. I respect the right to those opinions as much as my own.
So I wont be engaging in a back and forth which might cause misunderstandings or heated disagreements.
I just don't have a lot of time to type out comprehensive replies.

I am sure of my personal political position however...at least, that they are mine.

Interesting to go back and read through this long thread. This quoted post is before Covid (or at least before we it effected the U.S. in a major way) shutdowns, etc.
As of today, it looks to be the most accurate. Of course, time will tell.

I do not enjoy debating politics on here (most of us Dems don't) or anywhere really. It inevitably falls into name calling and insults and its just not worth it. But I do enjoy analyzing campaigns. Always have. When Trump won in 2016 I was disappointed politically, but absolutely fascinated from a campaign science standpoint.
His run through the Republican primary and election was simply astonishing. Looking back, the National Polls were actually almost right on...the final 538 average of polls had Clinton up 3.2% and she won by 2.1%. Easily within the margin of error. The state polls were the ones most off. Those have supposedly been fixed in this "new normal" of Trump. They were very good in the 2018 midterms. We shall see how close they are this time when all is said and done.

As of today, Biden is heavily favored to win (by almost every measure). He has a nearly double digit lead Nationally and he has held a steady lead for months now.
Trump HAS to win Pennsylvania. He virtually cannot win the Presidency otherwise. As of today, state polls there have him down 7 points. With Biden being from there, it seems a very uphill battle.
Maybe the biggest sign to how bad this looks for Trump is where Trump is holding a rally on Friday - Georgia. Georgia!! Obama lost Georgia to Romney by 8 points. Trump beat Clinton there by 5. Right now, Trump and Biden are neck and neck. I expect Trump will likely pull it out there but the fact he is spending money and time in states he has to defend (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina) is an awful sign for his campaign.
Speaking of, as of today, Biden is leading in North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida. All states Clinton lost. He is up by a lot in Minn, Penn, Wisconsin and Michigan.
The bottom line is this: As of today (and millions of votes have been cast), Biden has a better chance for a landslide victory than Trump does of winning at all.

As for the Senate, the majority basically comes down to one state: North Carolina. Collins is likely losing in Maine (and she is more a moderate anyways). IF Cunningham wins in North Carolina, I believe the Senate is tied with the new VP being the deciding vote. If Dems win Iowa (where they are in a dead heat) they would win the majority outright. This is will be very very close and as of today, maybe too close to call.

The Dems will hold the House virtually for sure.

One more comment toward the future of elections: It is not good for Republicans that very reliable Republican states are becoming toss-ups: Georgia, Nevada, Texas and North Carolina especially. If Texas ever becomes a true toss-up (and its close), it becomes almost mathematically impossible for Republicans to ever win a National election. And that is right in the middle of the country. But the electorate there and everywhere is getting younger and more diverse. Until Republicans do more to appeal to those demographics....it does not look good for the future. Imo, this extreme play to the base that Trump pulled off in 2016 is devastating for Republicans elsewhere (as evidenced by Lindsey Graham fighting for his political life).

[Catfan73]

Just my opinion but I think it may be a generation before the GOP recovers from the last four years and elects another president.

[dan_bgblue]

If Joe gets the nod, we all need to hope that he gets a brain transplant, as none of us wants to endure President Kamala Harris.

[catmanjack]

You honestly think he will last 4 years?
The young Democrats wants everything given to them so the free healthcare speaks to them.
It’s a pretty sad time and as I have said how anyone can support a party that elects Omar and allows riots and the destruction of cities while supporting terrorist is beyond me.

[catmanjack]

The thing I find very interesting is that Democrats believe everything they are told like mindless zombies.

[KeithKSR]

I don’t put a lot of stock in polls, especially polls still using the 2012 turnout model. The polls had Desantis down by 7% the day before the 2018 general election in Florida. We saw how that turned out.

A couple of interesting things at work. 56% of the people say they are better off now than they were four years ago. The Gallup poll question about who people think will win the election favors Trump with 56%.

The enthusiasm factor heavily favors Trump, Biden creates a lot less enthusiasm than Hillary did.

[Darryl]

Just my opinion but I think it may be a generation before the GOP recovers from the last four years and elects another president.

The last 4 years were some of the best ever for this nation; record stock market, record low unemployment, highest standard of living ever, no wars anywhere, NATO nations actually paying their fair share, best prepared military since WW2, 3 outstanding SCOTUS justices named, etc

Darryl

[catmanjack]

We are not a nation that likes true facts and a real fact based narrative anymore.

[blueboss]

There is no way Biden wins, but it is very possible that Trump loses. If the latter should happen, God help us.


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[catmanjack]

Watching the conformation hearing the Democrats should be embarrassed, anyone supporting that narrative needs to ask themselves if they are true hard working Americans and really be honest about that.
Democrats keep screwing around and there will be a second Civil War.
Just honestly the Democrats cut at true American core values.

[ukpumacat]

There is no way Biden wins, but it is very possible that Trump loses. If the latter should happen, God help us.


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As of today, Trump is not only going to lose but he’s going to lose Bigly. He simply can’t help himself. He’s amazing at political theatre. And he’s absolutely terrible at politics.

[Menson]

As of today, Trump is not only going to lose but he’s going to lose Bigly. He simply can’t help himself. He’s amazing at political theatre. And he’s absolutely terrible at politics.

All depends on what to consider politics...

[VirginiaCat]

The October Surprise just hit Biden...this is going to tilt the battleground states BIGLY

[KeithKSR]

As of today, Trump is not only going to lose but he’s going to lose Bigly. He simply can’t help himself. He’s amazing at political theatre. And he’s absolutely terrible at politics.

You put a lot of faith in polls that use a model with an 18% lower GOP turnout than actually voted in 2016.

[Darryl]

You put a lot of faith in polls that use a model with an 18% lower GOP turnout than actually voted in 2016.

Puma conveniently omitted the poll that has 56% of Americans feeling like they are living better now than they were in 2016. Another poll; 56% of Americans think Trump will be reelected

Darryl

[ukpumacat]

You put a lot of faith in polls that use a model with an 18% lower GOP turnout than actually voted in 2016.

Incorrect. I am using polling averages. All of the polls use different metrics for how they get their numbers. Most poll for all scenarios: likely voters, unlikely voters, higher turnout, etc.
Btw, be careful what you wish for....in almost every poll that expects record turnout, it HELPS Biden, not hurts him.

[ukpumacat]

Puma conveniently omitted the poll that has 56% of Americans feeling like they are living better now than they were in 2016. Another poll; 56% of Americans think Trump will be reelected

Darryl

It wasn't convenient. I am listing polls of who people will vote for since that is what this thread is about. If polls had Trump ahead, I would gladly list those. If you want to believe Trump is going to win...have at it. Who we think is going to win isn't going to change who wins.
As of today, Biden would win in a landslide. Can that change in less than 3 weeks? Sure. For the record, I expect the race to tighten (as I mentioned above) before the election because I think a 10+ point victory is just impractical in our divided country.

Btw, just yesterday Lindsey Graham literally said during the Supreme Court hearing that Dems had a good chance to win the White House (I doubt that will go over well with Trump).

[ukpumacat]

The October Surprise just hit Biden...this is going to tilt the battleground states BIGLY

Betcha it doesn't. This Burisma stuff has been around since forever. People simply don't care (except for people already voting for Trump). This is one major thing that has changed in 4 years. The amount of "October surprises" from both sides that have been thrown at both candidates for the past 4 years has muted any benefit they would have had in past elections.

If an October surprise came out about Trump with some new Russia info, or an affair he had, or that he took a hooker to a wedding (true)...would that "hit the battleground states bigly"? No. People just don't care about this stuff anymore.

Look at my post above back in the beginning of March. Burisma didn't matter then and it doesn't matter now. Everyone is immune to this stuff. The race will tighten because that's the natural regression of things. But its going to take something far bigger than Burisma to change the landscape of the race.

[ukpumacat]

All depends on what to consider politics...

True.
Btw, this is all I mean by this (and Chuck has posted the same stuff): Trump cannot get out of his own way. To win an election, you can't simply appeal to your base. It doesn't work. Only 25%-30% of voters are Republicans. 40% are Democrats. And 30% are Independents.
Granted, there are many independents that are firm Trump or Biden supporters. But, you have to win those moderate/undecided independents in order to win the election (as well as getting out your base to vote).

Trump is amazing at getting people out to vote. Both people that love him and hate him. We will have record numbers of voters this election because of Donald Trump. His base will come out. And those who can't stand him will come out. But this election (as every election) is decided by the 10% of those people who are in the middle.

In 2016, Trump had two things go for him:
1. He won the undecided voters big time over Clinton (he won these folks largely on the "outsider" pitch)
2. Clinton's base did not show up in large numbers. She was unlikable and too many people believed she was going to win anyways.

Neither of these things are true in 2020.
1. Right now, Biden is way ahead of Trump with independents
2. Biden has high likability ratings (always has) and no one wants a repeat of 2016 (meaning people are coming out to vote).

Trump cannot do much about #2 but he could have done a lot about #1. And that is what I mean by him being so bad at politics (I didn't mean as someone who governs...that's a different topic): time and time again, he has squandered opportunities to appeal to independents, and instead chosen to win over his base over and over (which makes no political sense). In fact, Trump is so popular with his base (as popular as Reagan) that he easily could have given all of his attention to independents and kept his base intact.

[ukpumacat]

I don’t put a lot of stock in polls, especially polls still using the 2012 turnout model. The polls had Desantis down by 7% the day before the 2018 general election in Florida. We saw how that turned out.

A couple of interesting things at work. 56% of the people say they are better off now than they were four years ago. The Gallup poll question about who people think will win the election favors Trump with 56%.

The enthusiasm factor heavily favors Trump, Biden creates a lot less enthusiasm than Hillary did.

I think these are valid questions. Just a few comments of my own on these:

1. Florida Governor Race - "Polls" didn't have Gillum winning by 7. There was a poll that did a week before the vote. But that was the highest. The last 5 polls before that vote had Gillum +1, Desantis +3, Gillum +2, Gillum +4, Gillum +3.
All of those but one are within the margin of error. Desantis won by less than 1%. Also, Gillum had those last minute text messages come out the week of the election which hurt him. Meaning, those polls were largely accurate.
Again, you can do an amazing amount of reading on this at fivethirtyeight.com as they rate pollsters based on their accuracy in past elections. Some polls are very good. Some are not. Some use old methodologies. Almost all changed those after 2016. No matter what anyone believes about pollsters...it embarrasses them to be wrong. They literally exist to be correct.

2. The Gallup polls - Those polls were conducted in September (Trump tweeted about them last week so it made the rounds). And yes, people feeling they are better off than 4 years ago even in the midst of Covid IS a good sign for Trump. It is not surprising that a slight majority think he will win. Incumbents usually do. And I have many Dem friends who will of course vote for Biden but still think Trump is going to win. But that is all anecdotal. "All we ever see are Trump flags". And then I remind them that we are in California. And Trump will lose by 30 here. Flags are no indication of who will win.
But, you can't use or trust a poll when you like it but ignore it when you don't. In that exact same Gallup poll, Trump forgot to tweet that those polled found Biden to be more (than Trump):
- Likable
- Honest
- Trustworthy
- Likely to care about your needs
- Display Good Judgment
- Manage the government properly
- Keep his promises
- Bring about change that is needed

The only category Trump won was "strong". Those categories is why Biden is leading in Gallup and other polls.

3. Enthusiastic factor - I mentioned this above but will do so again. Trump is his own worst enemy here. Yes, his base is unbelievably enthusiastic. They will turn out. But Trump has those against him unbelievably enthusiastic. I am a great example of this. I didn't vote for Biden in the primary. I wouldn't call me "an enthusiastic Biden voter". But I will walk through Hell and high water to vote Trump out of office. Every single person I know feels the same (whether they love him or hate him....they are voting). We will have the biggest turnout in election history.

[catmanjack]

I think that voting because of hate is wrong, you vote on actions and results.
If you are for higher taxes, a socialist government and support those who wish to defund the police and allow the destruction of America you vote for Biden.

[ukpumacat]

The thing I find very interesting is that Democrats believe everything they are told like mindless zombies.

Can you just stop with the broad paint brush insults please? Its no better than someone saying all Republicans are racist, homophobic xenophobes. Or that Trump voters are in the cult of Trump.
There are plenty of people on both sides of the aisle that are "mindless zombies that believe everything they are told".

[ukpumacat]

If you are for higher taxes, a socialist government and support those who wish to defund the police and allow the destruction of America you vote for Biden.

Gotcha.