Presidential Prediction...Our own Crystal Ball

[kingcat]

Interesting points.

[ukpumacat]

The problem with much of the debate in the last page of this thread is its outdated. Most "liberals" do not simply want social services for the poor that feeds them, etc.
For instance, use Mick's quote (which is quoted often in these debates): "Give a man a fish, feed him for a day, teach a man to fish and feed him for a lifetime".

If you create a food stamp or social program that simply houses and feeds people with no criteria....that would be "Giving a man a fish".
But creating a program that gives temporary/transitional housing to those without a home...a program that gets them a job (that they are required to keep), teaches them how to budget and balance a checkbook, etc. Is that not teaching a man to fish?
Because I am on the Board of a program that does exactly that.

And what about a program that helps those below a certain poverty line get an education? Is that not "teaching a man to fish"? We literally already have this up until 12th grade.

The real issue with all of this Imo is the use of the word, "Socialism". And to the right's delight, Bernie has used it many times describing himself. And that is plain stupid. Most Dems are not socialists. If they actually knew what the word meant. In fact, I do not know any Dems that are. Like, literally none.

Most Dems (and based on Kingcat's posts he is one of these) are what I would call Compassionate Capitalists.
I am not a socialists. I actually despise many socialist policies. But I am a compassionate capitalist.
Meaning, I believe in a free market. I have no problem with billionaires. I do not find it to be "immoral" as Bernie calls it. I believe in anyone's ability to "work their way to the top". I am all for anyone becoming a billionaire if they can do it. And yes, that often does provide jobs for those who need them.
BUT...
I also believe in certain government programs that help those who need it most.
For me, that happens in two specific ways: Education and Health Care.

I began typing a really long post that delved into the specifics of these two areas. But honestly, its just getting into the weeds. So, I will make it short. I despise the model of Venezuela and Cuba, etc, Theirs is very socialistic. Theirs messed with a free market. It has failed. I much prefer the model of Denmark. It is not socialist. Theirs is liberal. It is progressive. They are social democrats. They are, "Compassionate Capitalists". They absolutely have a free market. They do not do very many government handouts. They do not try and make every one equal.

But they do have a progressive tax rate. And even though I am not in favor of their scale, I do believe the model is much better than ours. Since 2018, the wealthiest 1% in America paid a lower effective tax rate than the bottom 50%. That is ludicrous. And their model provides a fantastic health care program for all and an education program for all.
Free Market Economy. But compassionate programs that work.

I am not for giving a man a free fish every day. But I am for giving a sick one a Dr. and then teaching him how to fish by offering him higher education. And I'm ok with the wealthiest being taxed to help pay for it.

[kingcat]

The problem with much of the debate in the last page of this thread is its outdated. Most "liberals" do not simply want social services for the poor that feeds them, etc.
For instance, use Mick's quote (which is quoted often in these debates): "Give a man a fish, feed him for a day, teach a man to fish and feed him for a lifetime".

If you create a food stamp or social program that simply houses and feeds people with no criteria....that would be "Giving a man a fish".
But creating a program that gives temporary/transitional housing to those without a home...a program that gets them a job (that they are required to keep), teaches them how to budget and balance a checkbook, etc. Is that not teaching a man to fish?
Because I am on the Board of a program that does exactly that.

And what about a program that helps those below a certain poverty line get an education? Is that not "teaching a man to fish"? We literally already have this up until 12th grade.

The real issue with all of this Imo is the use of the word, "Socialism". And to the right's delight, Bernie has used it many times describing himself. And that is plain stupid. Most Dems are not socialists. If they actually knew what the word meant. In fact, I do not know any Dems that are. Like, literally none.

Most Dems (and based on Kingcat's posts he is one of these) are what I would call Compassionate Capitalists.
I am not a socialists. I actually despise many socialist policies. But I am a compassionate capitalist.
Meaning, I believe in a free market. I have no problem with billionaires. I do not find it to be "immoral" as Bernie calls it. I believe in anyone's ability to "work their way to the top". I am all for anyone becoming a billionaire if they can do it. And yes, that often does provide jobs for those who need them.
BUT...
I also believe in certain government programs that help those who need it most.
For me, that happens in two specific ways: Education and Health Care.

I began typing a really long post that delved into the specifics of these two areas. But honestly, its just getting into the weeds. So, I will make it short. I despise the model of Venezuela and Cuba, etc, Theirs is very socialistic. Theirs messed with a free market. It has failed. I much prefer the model of Denmark. It is not socialist. Theirs is liberal. It is progressive. They are social democrats. They are, "Compassionate Capitalists". They absolutely have a free market. They do not do very many government handouts. They do not try and make every one equal.

But they do have a progressive tax rate. And even though I am not in favor of their scale, I do believe the model is much better than ours. Since 2018, the wealthiest 1% in America paid a lower effective tax rate than the bottom 50%. That is ludicrous. And their model provides a fantastic health care program for all and an education program for all.
Free Market Economy. But compassionate programs that work.

I am not for giving a man a free fish every day. But I am for giving a sick one a Dr. and then teaching him how to fish by offering him higher education. And I'm ok with the wealthiest being taxed to help pay for it.

That's what i would have said if i could have said it so profoundly.

[Catonahottinroof]

In Denmark the tax rate on the citizen there is 45% of their income. The problem with that being applied here in the US is nearly half of the citizens in the US are untaxed and drawing from the pool. You can’t make the math add up with 1 paying and 1 not paying.

[kingcat]

In Denmark the tax rate on the citizen there is 45% of their income. The problem with that being applied here in the US is nearly half of the citizens in the US are untaxed and drawing from the pool. You can’t make the math add up with 1 paying and 1 not paying.

1/3 of Denmark's tax is proportional. And indirect taxes make up another third.

One third is standard income tax. income from employment or self-employment is taxed at 8% before income tax as a labor market contribution or gross tax. Income below DKK 46,200 (US$7,000) is income tax-free, but subject to the gross tax.
In 2019 income above DKK 46,200 is taxed at 12.16% (bottom-bracket rate)

income above DKK 513,400 is taxed an additional 15% (top-bracket rate).

There are municipal taxes and church taxes that come after that which do add up to quite a lot. But what makes it work is how happy the workforce is and that the benefits (social programs) are very worker friendly. (or available to the workforce) The key to it working is that there is virtually no tax evasion nor tax avoidance (even more substantial than evasion) And industry subsequently has a dedicated and powerful workforce with which to increase profits to compensate for taxation

"Professor of Economics at Princeton University Henrik Kleven has suggested that three distinct principles of policies in Denmark and its Scandinavian neighbors imply that the high tax rates cause only relatively small distortions to the economy: widespread use of third-party information reporting for tax collection purposes (ensuring a low level of tax evasion), broad tax bases (ensuring a low level of tax avoidance), and a strong subsidization of goods that are complementary to working (ensuring a high level of labour force participation)"

[Doc]

The problem with much of the debate in the last page of this thread is its outdated. Most "liberals" do not simply want social services for the poor that feeds them, etc.
For instance, use Mick's quote (which is quoted often in these debates): "Give a man a fish, feed him for a day, teach a man to fish and feed him for a lifetime".

If you create a food stamp or social program that simply houses and feeds people with no criteria....that would be "Giving a man a fish".
But creating a program that gives temporary/transitional housing to those without a home...a program that gets them a job (that they are required to keep), teaches them how to budget and balance a checkbook, etc. Is that not teaching a man to fish?
Because I am on the Board of a program that does exactly that.

And what about a program that helps those below a certain poverty line get an education? Is that not "teaching a man to fish"? We literally already have this up until 12th grade.

The real issue with all of this Imo is the use of the word, "Socialism". And to the right's delight, Bernie has used it many times describing himself. And that is plain stupid. Most Dems are not socialists. If they actually knew what the word meant. In fact, I do not know any Dems that are. Like, literally none.

Most Dems (and based on Kingcat's posts he is one of these) are what I would call Compassionate Capitalists.
I am not a socialists. I actually despise many socialist policies. But I am a compassionate capitalist.
Meaning, I believe in a free market. I have no problem with billionaires. I do not find it to be "immoral" as Bernie calls it. I believe in anyone's ability to "work their way to the top". I am all for anyone becoming a billionaire if they can do it. And yes, that often does provide jobs for those who need them.
BUT...
I also believe in certain government programs that help those who need it most.
For me, that happens in two specific ways: Education and Health Care.

I began typing a really long post that delved into the specifics of these two areas. But honestly, its just getting into the weeds. So, I will make it short. I despise the model of Venezuela and Cuba, etc, Theirs is very socialistic. Theirs messed with a free market. It has failed. I much prefer the model of Denmark. It is not socialist. Theirs is liberal. It is progressive. They are social democrats. They are, "Compassionate Capitalists". They absolutely have a free market. They do not do very many government handouts. They do not try and make every one equal.

But they do have a progressive tax rate. And even though I am not in favor of their scale, I do believe the model is much better than ours. Since 2018, the wealthiest 1% in America paid a lower effective tax rate than the bottom 50%. That is ludicrous. And their model provides a fantastic health care program for all and an education program for all.
Free Market Economy. But compassionate programs that work.

I am not for giving a man a free fish every day. But I am for giving a sick one a Dr. and then teaching him how to fish by offering him higher education. And I'm ok with the wealthiest being taxed to help pay for it.

And yet the democratic party's presidential candidate will likely be a socialist.

[ukpumacat]

And yet the democratic party's presidential candidate will likely be a socialist.

Fingers crossed he won’t. Ha
He won’t be getting my vote on Tuesday.

[Catonahottinroof]

In terms of US dollars, here is how CNN lay that out. Keep in mind average household income in the US is $63K
https://money.cnn.com/interactive/pf...x-rate/?iid=EL
Attachment 9208

There is no way that is feasible in the US. It would draw a revolt, possibly armed of epic proportions

1/3 of Denmark's tax is proportional. And indirect taxes make up another third.

One third is standard income tax. income from employment or self-employment is taxed at 8% before income tax as a labor market contribution or gross tax. Income below DKK 46,200 (US$7,000) is income tax-free, but subject to the gross tax.
In 2019 income above DKK 46,200 is taxed at 12.16% (bottom-bracket rate)

income above DKK 513,400 is taxed an additional 15% (top-bracket rate).

There are municipal taxes and church taxes that come after that which do add up to quite a lot. But what makes it work is how happy the workforce is and that the benefits (social programs) are very worker friendly. (or available to the workforce) The key to it working is that there is virtually no tax evasion nor tax avoidance (even more substantial than evasion) And industry subsequently has a dedicated and powerful workforce with which to increase profits to compensate for taxation

"Professor of Economics at Princeton University Henrik Kleven has suggested that three distinct principles of policies in Denmark and its Scandinavian neighbors imply that the high tax rates cause only relatively small distortions to the economy: widespread use of third-party information reporting for tax collection purposes (ensuring a low level of tax evasion), broad tax bases (ensuring a low level of tax avoidance), and a strong subsidization of goods that are complementary to working (ensuring a high level of labour force participation)"

[ukpumacat]

I do want to say that I'm very glad we started this thread back when we did. Its been really interesting to see the twists and turns. And its a great example of how quickly things change in politics. Momentum is a very real thing.

I am quite tempted to change my Dem pick back to Biden. The moderates are consolidating behind him. Maybe its too late with Super Tuesday tomorrow but it may not be. I think Warren will drop out on Wednesday now as well. The only real question is will Bloomberg. He is not winning the nomination. And he is going to hurt Biden imo. He has to be smart enough to realize both of those things.
Pete and Amy dropping out really helps Biden in California. Bernie will win by a lot but Biden will likely now reach the threshold needed to pick up some delegates. And they way California is divided up, that will be more than some think. And I think Biden has a realistic shot at winning Texas, Virginia, and much of the South.

[CitizenBBN]

The Democratic powers that be have gotten the donors in line and cut Mayor Pete and Klobuchar off, so they are out. That's not a mean thing to say, that's politics. They've been told to let it go either of their own volition or by cutting off money, and that's a smart move at this point.

Biden has been the safe but very milquetoast establishment candidate from the start. IMO the Dems would have been better off with him out of it entirely and either Pete or Klobuchar as the current "stop Bernie" option b/c this is still a very Populist electorate.

The question will be how he gets the votes. I now see Bernie having a plurality of electors but not a majority, with Bloomberg and Biden all three in an open convention. How they come out of that without Bernie as the nominee without fracturing the party I don't know.

I can see Bloomberg even falling in behind Biden, but Bernie's balloon of rabid voters will deflate like it was hit with a BB gun, and I doubt even a VP option will make it work b/c then you get Bernie's negatives without a 100% fired up Bernie base.

An open convention would be fascinating. Havent' had a true brokered convention since the 1950s. We've had a few with some minor palace intrigue but nothing like a 3 way race with no majority.

[CitizenBBN]

Oh and Puma I agree Warren will be out this week. Question is does she lobby for a VP spot with Bernie and throw her support there or do another two face two step and go moderate? Does Biden eye her for VP hoping to pull Bernie support?

Or should I say do the people that make Biden's decisions for him do that, b/c Biden bless his heart just isn't doing that job in his campaign.

[ukpumacat]

Alright...I'm doing it before tonight.

Biden over Trump.

I think Biden is going to have a bigger night than people think. He is going to sweep the South and I think he is going to win Virginia and North Carolina by wide margins. I think he will win Texas in a shocker. And I think he performs better in California than many think winning a chunk of those delegates.
Bernie will have the delegate lead after tonight but it will not be insurmountable. I think Biden rides this wave to the nomination.

[Catonahottinroof]

I think that depends on whether the gaffe machinery within him is suppressed.

Alright...I'm doing it before tonight.

Biden over Trump.

I think Biden is going to have a bigger night than people think. He is going to sweep the South and I think he is going to win Virginia and North Carolina by wide margins. I think he will win Texas in a shocker. And I think he performs better in California than many think winning a chunk of those delegates.
Bernie will have the delegate lead after tonight but it will not be insurmountable. I think Biden rides this wave to the nomination.

[ukpumacat]

I think that depends on whether the gaffe machinery within him is suppressed.

Yes. Its not great to be honest.

But a lot of people thought Trump could never beat Hillary because of his history, lawsuits, weird moments in debates, etc. And none of that mattered. Because what people voting cared about was so much bigger than all of that. And Trump rode that to the Presidency.
I think it will be the same. Biden will have plenty more gaffes. But it won't be why people do or don't vote for him. He may not beat Trump, but that won't be why.

[kingcat]

I believe Joe Biden is the next President of these United States. And have for a long while.

You can cash that in and buy a cup of Five Star coffee....if you have the money

[CitizenBBN]

I believe Joe Biden is the next President of these United States. And have for a long while.

You can cash that in and buy a cup of Five Star coffee....if you have the money

I hope not, b/c he's the dumbest, most puppetted man they could have found in DC. He was a moron in the 1980s, and he's only gotten worse. The establishment loves him b/c they run the show and will for sure with him in office.

Forget his gaffs, watch his comments when he even takes time to explain things. This is the man who, with time to respond, suggested shooting through the door with a shotgun, presumably without identifying the person on the other side, as a method of self defense. That's not a gaff like saying the wrong day or wrong number. That's just not being a smart man. That was in answer to a question about assault weapons and why we don't need them.


I think he gets the nomination b/c the convention will be brokered and Bloomberg in the end will put his people behind Biden, giving him the win. The problem will be that it will totally deflate the Bernie base.

While Biden won't be dumb enough to not campaign in the swing states like Hillary, he's still got some big issues.

But if Bloomberg goes in the #2 guy in votes, I'm not so sure he relents to the DNC. Will depend on the margins.

[MickintheHam]

Bloomberg is toast. He is too smart to continue running in a rigged primary. He will be out this week.

[ukpumacat]

Bloomberg is toast. He is too smart to continue running in a rigged primary. He will be out this week.

That’s what I’ve been trying to say. He had no chance. Dems just don’t like him.
Btw, I tried predicting Biden would have a great night tonight earlier today. But this is a better night than even I thought.
He is winning states where he didn’t stop once or spend any money.
Do not under-estimate the power of how badly people want to beat Trump.
Voters spoke in South Carolina and now states are following all over.
This is not rigged. This is not deep state establishment stuff. This is Dems learning from Trump in 2016 and not allowing a small base to best a majority.
This is Dem voters coming out in record numbers to coalesce around the person they think can beat Trump.
Will it be enough? We will see. But under-estimate the power of the Anti-Trump vote at your own peril.

[ukpumacat]

The craziest part of all of this?

Biden was +3,000 to win just a month ago. That is just an insane bet.

[CitizenBBN]

It's Anti-Trump, but it's also Anti-Sanders. Bernie is as scary to most moderate Democrats as Trump, esp. in the states where Biden blew up tonight. In part b/c they don't think he can win, and in part b/c he's also just very scary ideologically.

And part of the turnout is b/c of Bernie, and if he's not on the ticket I'm not sure those people turn out as strong just to unseat Trump. Some will, but not all.

I have no doubt Dems want Trump out badly. Not news he's hated. People are still convinced he's a Russian agent and is trying to seriously undo the Constitution and make himself dictator. That's a special kind of hate right there.

But not one person who voted tonight was ever going to vote for Trump. The question is how many turn out in swing states, and only one of them was even in play really tonight.

Trump will murder Biden in most every state he won tonight. No surprise Dems in Alabama are going to turn out against Bernie as much as Trump. To them Biden is still a liberal.

It's going to come down to the obvious swing states in the rust belt and Florida for the most part, and people are not as hating of Trump in those parts of the country.

Way too early to call this one. I do think Biden gets the nomination unfortunately b/c Sanders is unelectable, but Biden has massive warts as well, so lots of variables still in these equations, way beyond the fact that registered Democrats hate Trump's guts.

[ukpumacat]

But not one person who voted tonight was ever going to vote for Trump. The question is how many turn out in swing states, and only one of them was even in play really tonight.

Trump will murder Biden in most every state he won tonight. No surprise Dems in Alabama are going to turn out against Bernie as much as Trump. To them Biden is still a liberal.

Um, that’s not true.

Biden won Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Alabama, Maine, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Arkansas.

Trump will “murder” him in 4 of those 10 states (TN, OK, Al, Ark). He will likely beat him in North Carolina and Texas. But Texas is in play with the youth and Latino vote there. Especially if Beto is on the ticket. Virginia is a toss up. Minnesota is a toss up. And Biden will “murder” Trump in Mass and Maine.

Not only that, but voter turnout was excellent. Especially in some key states. Virginia being the top of that list. That is a state Biden can win and the turnout for Dems was HUGE.

If I am a Trump fan tonight is a worst case scenario. Bernie can’t beat him. Biden can. And this night could not have gone better for Biden.

[CitizenBBN]

Oh I much prefer Bernie to Biden, and yes Biden can beat him. But in March Bush I looked like a sure winner for reelection too.

I said some swing states were in play, but some are non-factors for Biden in the general election.

I'm not saying it's good for Trump, I'm saying there's far too much still in play to take much stock in any turn of events this early. Last week Biden was doomed, now he's the likely nominee.

It's just darts at a dartboard at this point even if the Dem nominee picture does coalesce. Lots that neither candidate can control, and some they can.

Biden's staff is good, and the Dem establishment will get 100% behind him, but they can't fix that he's a moron who is now a moron who is slipping even by his own standards. People will vote for him b/c he's not Trump and he's safe, but not b/c he's really a strong candidate people believe in either.

I expect a very close race, but I've expected that since Trump won the first election. his negatives are massive, it was always going to be close.

[ukpumacat]

Btw, the reason why Biden is in such good shape is what is next on the primary calendar. Bernie needed to leave last night with a huge lead. He didn't get it. And he lost two states he won last time (OK and MN) and he lost a few states everyone thought he was winning (Texas, Mass, Maine). And his margins in California and Colorado are way less than any poll had showed.

Next up next week:
Michigan - which Biden will likely win
Mississippi - which Biden will win big
Idaho - Bernie will win but small delegate count
Washington - Bernie will win big
North Dakota - Likely Bernie

And then in a couple of weeks is the real haul for Biden:

Florida
Illinois
Ohio
Arizona
And then Georgia after that.

The calendar is very Biden friendly, not Bernie. He will almost certainly head into the convention with the delegate lead if not the outright winner. And all of Trump's tweets about a Bernie conspiracy etc will all be for naught.

Again, none of this says he beats Trump. Just that I think he is now the overwhelming favorite to face Trump. And with everyone else out of the race (including Warren soon), there are far less variables to change the race. I don't care how badly Biden might do in the next debate, Bernie is not winning over many more voters. Biden can.

[bigsky]

Bloomberg got a ice-cold welcome from democrats, who seem uninterested in an outsider. They sunk him at the debate where he was arrogantly unprepared.

[bigsky]

They’ve settled on Joe Biden. Nobody else has his intra party connections.

[KSRBEvans]

My hot take:

Democrats are making the same mistake Republicans did in 2016. They're waiting too long to consolidate behind one not-Sanders candidate. As a result, Sanders will get an unassailable delegate lead. He'll end up the Democratic candidate, or when the Democrats choose someone else he and his followers will bolt.

This tweetstorm by Megan McArdle comes pretty close to summing up my views on the Democratic primary season.

Trump may well have won, anyway, but this will ensure his reelection victory.

Can I have a do over?

The old saying is "Republicans fall in line, Democrats fall in love." I never thought the other candidates would drop so quickly and Dems could align so quickly behind Biden. As always, the lesson here is I'm an idiot.

Biden vs. Trump? The only prediction I'll make is I think I might watch these debates for once. It's going to be a hoot.

[ukpumacat]

Bloomberg got a ice-cold welcome from democrats, who seem uninterested in an outsider. They sunk him at the debate where he was arrogantly unprepared.

Exactly. I wasn't kidding when I was saying I know a huge network of liberal voters and literally not one said they would ever vote for Bloomberg. He is very disliked in the Dem party for numerous reasons. As in, he was 5th or 6th on everyone's list ahead of only Tulsi Gabbard.
The bulk of his votes came from independents in open primaries (which every state that voted on Tuesday was Open except for Maine). When I said he had no shot I meant it.

[ukpumacat]

They’ve settled on Joe Biden. Nobody else has his intra party connections.

Connections help for sure. But Dems settled (and I do agree with the word because he wasn't the first choice for many) because of what happened in South Carolina. Black voters love him and came out and handed Bernie a huge defeat. That was all it took for Dems to say, "Him. If he can beat Bernie like that then he's our guy to beat Trump". Literally.

[ukpumacat]

Can I have a do over?

The old saying is "Republicans fall in line, Democrats fall in love." I never thought the other candidates would drop so quickly and Dems could align so quickly behind Biden. As always, the lesson here is I'm an idiot.

Biden vs. Trump? The only prediction I'll make is I think I might watch these debates for once. It's going to be a hoot.

Ha. That is what this thread was for. To record the topsy turvy nature of all of this. And I agree, if Biden is the nominee the debates are going to be a circus.

[Crazy4Blue]

Trump over Biden in a big way. Biden and his family corruption will get exposed.