Presidential Prediction...Our own Crystal Ball

[catmanjack]

Voicing an opinion, plain and simple!

[Darryl]

Gotcha.

You seem fair minded; exactly what is wrong with his statement? Biden has promised to increase taxes on day 1; the majority of Democrats certainly favor socialistic views; Liberals have realized defund the police is political suicide so they will simply cut revenue to the Police; they want free college, Medicare for all (including non-citizens), reparations to African Americans, etc

I certainly don’t love Trump but I favor most of his policies. If I may ask, which ones do you disagree with?

Thanks, Darryl

[ukpumacat]

You seem fair minded; exactly what is wrong with his statement? Biden has promised to increase taxes on day 1; the majority of Democrats certainly favor socialistic views; Liberals have realized defund the police is political suicide so they will simply cut revenue to the Police; they want free college, Medicare for all (including non-citizens), reparations to African Americans, etc

I certainly don’t love Trump but I favor most of his policies. If I may ask, which ones do you disagree with?

Thanks, Darryl

Many, but that is for a different thread. Like I said earlier (which is easy to miss since I posted a lot...ha), I don't debate or even talk politics anymore. I am not going to change my mind. You are not going to change your mind. So it simply leads to insults, name calling and endless arguing. And I don't just mean on this board...I mean at all. I have friends and family on both sides of the aisle. Fwiw, I don't talk/debate Biblical doctrine with them either...haha. Just too much animosity, hyperbole and extreme thinking these days to have honest and good debates. And that is for everyone on both sides of the aisle. Its just too ugly and that's a shame.

I like and respect you Darryl and honestly just prefer talking sports and basketball with all of you guys.

Its a fine line...I know. But I ALSO enjoy talking about campaign strategy etc. I always have. I get just as vested in Republican primaries as I do Democratic ones. I'm weird because most people hate the campaign side of things. I'm a numbers/analytics/statistics fan...so I started this thread a long time ago because I thought it would be a fun exercise to see how much things changed over time (with the Dem primaries starting up). I love watching polls (no matter who is winning) and seeing trends, etc. That is my interest here on this thread.
There are other threads on this forum to debate policies etc. There are still a couple of libs on here to answer those questions if you guys have them.

[ukpumacat]

Btw, great poll just released for Graham in South Carolina. Dems don't need SC to win the Senate but it certainly is one of a few they think they have a legit shot in.

[Darryl]

Btw, great poll just released for Graham in South Carolina. Dems don't need SC to win the Senate but it certainly is one of a few they think they have a legit shot in.

The Democrats are 100% losing a Senate seat in Alabama

Darryl

[ukpumacat]

The Democrats are 100% losing a Senate seat in Alabama

Darryl

Ha, yes.

Like I said, most of the Senate seats are pretty easy to predict. For Dems to win control, they have to win Maine and then NC or Iowa. Same with Republicans.

[ukpumacat]

Oh man...this will not help Trump's poll numbers:

"But the reality is that he careened from curb to curb. First, he ignored COVID. And then he went into full economic shutdown mode. He was the one who said 10 to 14 days of shutdown would fix this. And that was always wrong. I mean, and so I don't think the way he's lead through COVID has been reasonable or responsible, or right.”

“The way he kisses dictators' butts. I mean, the way he ignores the Uighurs, our literal concentration camps in Xinjiang. Right now, he hasn't lifted a finger on behalf of the Hong-Kongers," he said. "The United States now regularly sells out our allies under his leadership, the way he treats women, spends like a drunken sailor. The ways I criticize President Obama for that kind of spending; I've criticized President Trump for as well. He mocks evangelicals behind closed doors. His family has treated the presidency like a business opportunity. He's flirted with white supremacists."

“If young people become permanent Democrats because they've just been repulsed by the obsessive nature of our politics, or if women who were willing to still vote with the Republican Party in 2016 decide that they need to turn away from this party permanently in the future,"
"I've spent lots of the of the last year on a campaign bus, and when you listen to Nebraskans, they don't really want more rage tweeting as a new form of entertainment," he said. "I think the overwhelming reason that President Trump won in 2016 was simply because Hillary Clinton was literally the most unpopular candidate in the history of polling.”

Conservative Republican Ben Sasse on Donald Trump
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...s-evangelicals

Ouch. I suppose if you wanted reasons why some will vote Trump out... just use those.

[catmanjack]

All great narratives but there are just as many to not support the Democratic Party.

Support of a socialist movement
Higher taxes
Medical for all
Support of BLM/Antifa both domestic terrorist groups.

There is enough of this to go back and forth.

Mainly the demographics have changed with the 18-30 year olds in that most want everything given to them and do not believe in earning their own respect and the Democratic Party has tailored their narrative in that direction.

It’s all about if you believe in America and unfortunately many could careless!

[ukpumacat]

Reposting this here from Darryl as it’s pertinent to this discussion:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...-edge-jpmorgan

While voter registration is encouraging for Trump and the GOP, it is “only one variable in determining the election outcome,” the JPMorgan team wrote, noting that the results should not be used to predict a state’s outcome.

[catmanjack]

First time voter myself and actually enjoy hearing others debate why each side is the least wrong.

[kingcat]

We might ease up on the nastiness that prevents many from participating here. Statements Like..

I [I]
If you are for corporate control of a fascist style government and support those who wish to wield law enforcement as a means to maintain power, manipulate every grey area of society, attack the system of government that has served this country well for over two hundred years,! allow the destruction of the America of, by, and for the people..you vote for Trump.

There are many issues that separate the two parties and some that could unite them absent such broad based and hateful accusations meant to ridicule and attack anyone with a different opinion. Things are always much more complex than stinging political one liners attempt to address.

[KeithKSR]

Ha, yes.

Like I said, most of the Senate seats are pretty easy to predict. For Dems to win control, they have to win Maine and then NC or Iowa. Same with Republicans.

It is very difficult to beat incumbent senators. The most vulnerable are those that are completing unexpired terms that were filled by special elections or appointments over the last few years.

[CitizenBBN]

Betcha it doesn't. This Burisma stuff has been around since forever. People simply don't care (except for people already voting for Trump). This is one major thing that has changed in 4 years. The amount of "October surprises" from both sides that have been thrown at both candidates for the past 4 years has muted any benefit they would have had in past elections.

If an October surprise came out about Trump with some new Russia info, or an affair he had, or that he took a hooker to a wedding (true)...would that "hit the battleground states bigly"? No. People just don't care about this stuff anymore.

Look at my post above back in the beginning of March. Burisma didn't matter then and it doesn't matter now. Everyone is immune to this stuff. The race will tighten because that's the natural regression of things. But its going to take something far bigger than Burisma to change the landscape of the race.

The only way it makes a difference is if some serious fire comes out on it, more than has been there.

And here we sit, just like 2016. We either vote for a guy with the personality of sandpaper and the poise of PT Barnum, or we vote for a corrupt career politician who has been happy to sell his position for profit. Exactly like 2016 and Hillary.

[ukpumacat]

The only way it makes a difference is if some serious fire comes out on it, more than has been there.

And here we sit, just like 2016. We either vote for a guy with the personality of sandpaper and the poise of PT Barnum, or we vote for a corrupt career politician who has been happy to sell his position for profit. Exactly like 2016 and Hillary.

Ha. I understand your point.
From a polling standpoint there are two huge differences between this year and 2016 (and I know you know this and it wasn’t your point):
1. Trump is now an incumbent with a record. For better or for worse depending on your point of view on taxes, judges, Covid etc.
2. Biden is far more likable than Hillary. And I mean that is what polls show. As Sasse said, Hillary was literally the least liked candidate in history. Biden is well liked by just about everyone. That matters.

In 2016, people stayed home. They are clearly not this year as we are already at record numbers with early voting. Who that benefits...time will tell (I think Biden).

[KeithKSR]

In 2016, people stayed home. They are clearly not this year as we are already at record numbers with early voting. Who that benefits...time will tell (I think Biden).

The early voting numbers are up primarily because more people are being encouraged to vote earlier due to COVID. A lot of locales include mail in ballots in those early vote numbers.

[CitizenBBN]

Ha. I understand your point.
From a polling standpoint there are two huge differences between this year and 2016 (and I know you know this and it wasn’t your point):
1. Trump is now an incumbent with a record. For better or for worse depending on your point of view on taxes, judges, Covid etc.
2. Biden is far more likable than Hillary. And I mean that is what polls show. As Sasse said, Hillary was literally the least liked candidate in history. Biden is well liked by just about everyone. That matters.

In 2016, people stayed home. They are clearly not this year as we are already at record numbers with early voting. Who that benefits...time will tell (I think Biden).

The variables of the outcome are very different, but the choice remains the same.

or close to the same. No one is more corrupt than the Clinton's, but Biden is a 40 year Washington guy who, despite his "aw shucks" image, is at a minimum letting his family run amok on his behalf. he's also an idiot, and Hillary was definitely not.

Trump's record, if people would stop focusing on the absurd trimmings it's been delivered with, actually isn't that bad. We can debate Covid, but otherwise he's actually really strong. People aren't sick of a strong economy, or even telling our allies to start ponying up, but they are tired of his personality.

As for Sen. sasse, I agree with his broad strokes, but he's wrong to use China and the "dictator's butts" thing. He's actually been tougher with China than any POTUS since we opened relations with China, and other than escalating the trade war he already started I'm not sure what else he's supposed to do over the camps and the Hong Kong and other expansions.

But basically the choices are the same. Biden is a lifelong insider who will keep the corrupt boat steaming along without rocking it, and Trump actually has a good record but his only way to rock the boat many want rocked is to scream like a lunatic.

Trump is only losing b/c of his personality. Trump won this state by 30 points and I still can count on one hand all the people who actually like his approach. Now, many like that he will stand up to the media and the establishment, but they don't care for exactly how he does it. Calling out the media is great, no one deserves it more than they do, but calling them childish names isn't the way to do it.

[catmanjack]

Trump speaks to the patriotism of America and that has nothing to do with the race of individuals.
I view the Democratic platform as one that’s tearing down America.

[bigsky]

Bloodbath. Socialists win presidency and senate and take over everything you do in life. Biden raises taxes and returns writeoffs for large foreign real estate investors . Biden packs court. Biden limits Americans’ meat consumption. Biden puts a dollar a gallon carbon tax on highway fuel, resulting in large price increases in food and drugs. Biden court reduces free speech and free exercise and tosses Heller. Ruger 10/22s and other semi automatic weapons subject to Biden’s mandatory confiscation.

The “new resistance” uses more than pink pussy hats.

[KeithKSR]

Polls from the Trafalgar Group were pretty close in 2016 and are showing lots of swing state races as being within the margin of error. https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/

[catmanjack]

Just listened to a great instagram post by Candice and she is 100% correct the Democrats are going to cheat during this election and we Republicans better be out voting unless we want a socialist government.
As she said covid is a fraud and shutting down all the voting sites and the total encouraging to vote by mail is nothing but to allow the cheating to happen.
As she mentioned Biden doesn’t and couldn’t sale out a high school gym for a rally and the Democrats are scared because Trump is winning.

[ukpumacat]

Polls from the Trafalgar Group were pretty close in 2016 and are showing lots of swing state races as being within the margin of error. https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/

Trafalgar is interesting in the polling world. They were closer to the final tally in a few of the swing states in 2016 and the Florida governor race in 2018. But they have been pretty awful on many Other races.
They openly admit they add a “secret Trump voter” bump in their polls. They call it the Social desirability bias.
So, depending on how strong that is...will depend on how correct they call a race. They always lean Republican in their polls because of it.
But here is the big caveat: they will always be closer in races where the late undecideds break toward the Republican (because these people cannot be polled) and they will be way off when the race breaks for the Democrat late.
This is why the 538 model is so good. They do not poll. They simply rate pollsters based on past success and then average all polls (including Trafalgar).

[Doc]

Early voting started today in FL...thru Nov 1. I plan on voting each and every day.

[catmanjack]

You must be a Democrat Doc!

[dan_bgblue]

Nah, he just loves voting in the land of the hanging chad.

[catmanjack]

Do they give you free stuff when you vote? That could be it also.

[ukpumacat]

Do they give you free stuff when you vote? That could be it also.

That isn't it for Doc unless its free lap dances. Then, maybe.

[Doc]

You must be a Democrat Doc!

No but all my dead relative will be voting for Biden.

[catmanjack]

We all would be there for free lap dances!

[catmanjack]

Thought you might have blocked me puma, hope I didn’t tick you off too much.
Just worried about America which I am sure you are also.

[ukpumacat]

Since I have been doing a ton of reading and posting about polls, etc. I thought I would share this article which I thought was really fascinating. For those bored with this stuff...I apologize so just skip it. Ha

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...hey-were-right

For those who cannot read it all...Trump's team had an election simulator in 2016 (all campaigns do) which helped them focus on which states to spend time and money in the weeks before the election.
They of course believed Trump had a much better shot at winning than most pundits did. They knew he had an enthusiastic base and they know how unpopular Hillary was. They also knew that there was a large number (larger than normal) of undecided voters and that if he could win the majority of them (a long shot) he could win the electoral college (they knew he couldn't win the popular vote).

Even with all of that, they had Trump at a 7.8% chance of winning the election 3 weeks out. And then, in their last simulation just before Election Day, they had him with a 30% shot of winning.

There are two really interesting parts to that:

1. The Late Swing
There was a large swing in the last 2 weeks of the election in their model...and it turned out to be right. The Comey deal really did make a difference. There have been "October Surprises" for decades now. None have ever mattered (just like none this year will). But that one did. It gave Trump at least 3 points nationally, which turned out to be JUST enough in some of those very close swing states. It was the "30% chance" the Trump campaign counted on. It was their only slim chance and they hit a royal flush.

2. The Polls
As I have posted before, the narrative that the "polls were wrong" is a false narrative. Polls are always sort of wrong. That is why there is a 3-4% margin of error. The key is taking an average of many polls to get an idea where the race is at. The polls in 2016 were FAR more accurate than they were in 2012. Not only that, but its impossible for polls to catch up to final week swings (see my first point). Polls take an average of 5 days to complete. So, even though you might see a trend in polling movement, you will never see the full picture if there is a late swing like that.
And here is the key, I have praised fivethirtyeight many times on here. Their forecast gave Trump a 30% chance to win on election night as well. The exact same as Trump's team did.. They were not wrong. Trump really did have only a 30% chance to win. THat's roughly a 1 in 3 shot. They saw the late swing trend for him in those state polls and they knew if he hit a straight (hold red states and take Michigan and Pennsylvania)...he could pull it off.

All of that to say, be careful simply dismissing polls (especially the good ones). They don't give you a perfect picture but they do give great snapshots.
I've said for a bit now I expect this race to tighten. And I do. I think Biden will win but I think it will be closer than others do. There are many who think not only is Biden going to win, but that he will likely win by a lot.

As of today, 538 has Trump winning in their simulations 13 out of 100 times (roughly 1 out of 8 times). That does not mean Trump will not win. He can. But, many things have to go his way. If he wins...it won't mean the "polls were wrong". He is very close and within the margin of error in several states. What the odds reflect are that he would have to win every single one of those close states. Can he? Yes. He already has. Is it likely? No. And as many people will say....follow the money: Vegas odds have Biden with almost the exact same odds of winning (70%).

One final question....
Why does Biden have better odds of winning than Clinton did? Isn't the race still close?

Yes. It is still close in many states. Simulators and forecasts have Biden with better odds of winning (than Clinton) for three main reasons:
1. He is far more "likable/favorable".
Clinton had the worst favorability ratings in the modern election era (and still won the popular vote). The electoral map still slightly favors Republicans (more on this in a sec) but the electorate (the voters) are increasingly more liberal/democratic. America is getting younger and more diverse. The likability matters because there were a large % of undecided voters in 2016 and Trump won them with his late swing at a huge race. It won him the election (again polls weren't totally wrong, they showed that trend toward him. Its why his chances of winning improved dramatically in forecasts).
Typically, undecided voters split evenly late in a race. 2016 was an outlier, Trump was a complete outlier of a candidate and people simply didn't know much about him. That has obviously changed in 2020. Pollsters fully expect the split to be more normal since Trump has been President for 4 years and is not an unknown anymore. In 2016, many voters were looking for a reason to NOT vote for Hillary because they just didn't like her. The Comey news gave them that reason and they swung to Trump (the unknown outsider) in huge numbers in the final week (which polls couldn't catch up to).

2. His electoral map is far better.
There are 12 states right now that are within the "undecided voter swing" territory. Meaning, there are 12 states within 7%.
Of those 12 states, Trump leads in the polls in 3 of them: Texas, Georgia (very close) and Iowa (a total toss-up).
3 states are total toss-ups (meaning polls have either of them winning): Florida, Ohio and North Carolina.
And 5 states have Biden with a lead: Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and Minnesota.

This is where the simulations and odds to win come in. For Trump to win (depending on different combinations), he has to win 8 out of the 11 states. Biden only needs to win 5 of them. And based on the states up for grabs, Biden has just as good a shot of winning 8 states as Trump does.
This is why Trump is in Pennsylvania today. He has virtually no combination to win without winning it. And its an uphill battle for him. He BARELY won it in 2016. And Biden is from there.
There are 13 simulations/combinations/outcomes where Trump can win (this is why 13 out of 100 chance to win based on 538). 10 of them include Pennsylvania. Biden can lose Pennsylvania and he still has many combinations to win the Presidency (although they are less likely). Basically, Biden has many more Plan B's than Clinton did.

3. Dem voters will turn out.
This is where the polls/forecasts really helped Trump in 2016. SO MANY Dems didn't go out and vote. Very very few people (from pundits down to voters to Trump himself) thought he was going to win. So there were enough Dem voters who stayed home and gave Trump the victory. Ultimately, Trump won the election in 3 counties in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania which represent 77,759 total voters. That's it. He may very well win again, but it will not be because Dem voters do not turn out. They are as energized as I have ever seen (even more so than for Obama) and I fully expect both sides to set voting records.

Again, does this mean Biden WILL win the election? No. Trump could once again defy the odds (although not the polls) and win 8 of those 11 swing states.

My wish: that no matter who wins, they win by a large enough margin that we do not spend months bickering about hanging chads and that it doesn't end up in the Supreme Court. Our nation is divided enough. That would literally be a nuclear bomb on top of America.
To avoid this, Trump needs to win a couple of states he isn't expected to: Pennsylvania and Michigan or Wisconsin. The combo of 2 of those would seal the deal.
And Biden would need to win any of Ohio, North Carolina or Florida. If he wins any one of those, it means he will have a large electoral victory and we avoid 4 months of hell.
Both of the above isn't as likely as a close Biden or Trump victory....but its my wish.