Presidential Prediction...Our own Crystal Ball

[ukpumacat]

Buttigieg is making a nice run since I last posted about him being on the rise. He's up in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire.

SO....I am officially changing my prediction as of 11/22.

Trump over Biden in one of the closest elections in American History.

As you all know, I hope I'm wrong. But, its my honest prediction at this point.

My reasoning:

1. Buttigieg has too much ground to make up in South Carolina and Nevada because he simply doesn't even register for minorities.
2. If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire (and he might), he will certainly get a bump nationally. But I just don't think he can make up the kind of ground he needs to make up in order to win the nomination.
3. I think his rise is at the cost of Warren. NOT Biden. Its easy to think it would be Biden and I've seen many talking heads say it. But if you look at the polls, Biden's numbers haven't budged. Its true, moderate voters like both Biden and Buttigieg, but the voters he is getting are the educated white voters. That's Warren territory.
4. If Warren does not win Iowa or New Hampshire, she simply cannot win the nomination. Those states are tailor made for her.
5. Sanders isn't dropping out. And they will split the progressive vote. And Sanders voters are more loyal than Warren's. They aren't leaving him for Buttigieg.
6. I really like Buttigieg. Most do. He could actually beat Trump. He's terribly reasonable, etc. But Biden has the Dem org behind him and I don't think he can overcome that. It would take a colossal meltdown for Biden to lose a ton of voters to him. I would be THRILLED if Buttigieg wins the nomination. I just don't think he can get over that minority hump.
7. I just don't think Biden can beat Trump. He will get more votes than Hillary because they learned their mistake last time around. Trump won't be underestimated this time. People hate him and will come out to vote against him more than even for Biden. But I just think the electoral map still favors Trump.
8. This is a very soft prediction. I still think Trump is very vulnerable because he is losing white suburban women. And that is a constituency he simply cannot lose. But Biden represents the old guard. Will he be enough to push it over the top? I think no, but barely.
9. Just a repeat....I really hope Buttigieg can somehow surprise and keeps marching up the polls.

[dan_bgblue]

I still think Trump is very vulnerable because he is losing white suburban women.

I am not sure that losing those 86 votes will be enough to tip the scales for any of his potential opponents. White suburban females in southern KY did not vote for him last time. Large numbers of them stayed home that day as they could not hold their nose long enough to vote for Hillary and they damn sure were not going to vote for DT. MSNBC and CNN had them convinced that he was a cross between Hugh Hefner and Al Capone.

[suncat05]

JMHO, I think Trump wins easily.
Not one of the Democrat challengers has enough juice to beat Trump.
The economy is roaring ahead full speed. Our enemies overseas are being as cautious and laying as low as possible, the exception there being the ChiComs, but even they are not rattling their sabers too loudly. The Democrats and their impeachment farce are boring the American people to sleep, because there is "no there there". Except that dirty 'Uncle Joe' and his erstwhile son may be at or close to the bottom of one of the biggest political scandals of American history. And that the dirt on Obama, the Clinton's and a lot of that bunch is about to be revealed for all to see soon.
But the bottom line is the economy is thriving, and that determines how a lot of people vote. I just don't see Trump losing to any of these challengers.

[MickintheHam]

Saw my first Michael Bloomberg for President this am. This election will now swing from how much to we have to give away to win the election to simply Hate Trump the guy we impeached.

[ukpumacat]

Trump over Sanders. Feb 11th, 2020

[Catfan73]

Forgot all about this thread. Changing mine to Sanders over Trump. Hillary loses her mind.

[CitizenBBN]

I can tell you one thing. Biden wont' be in it. Got his butt handed to him in NH.

He's the Jeb Bush of the Democrats. All the pedigree at a time when people really don't want pedigree.

Oh, and he's a buffoon and a walking gaffe machine, but mostly b/c he's an entrenched elite at a time people don't like elites.

But if he does actually win SC, then it will be such a fun addition to the soup that is a contested convention.

[CitizenBBN]

I don't see it being Sanders either. If you put Warren's votes behind Bernie but the others behind Pete or Bloomberg, Sanders has no shot.

his best chance is that Pete and Bloomberg split the moderate vote and somehow Sanders wins at the convention.

He's winning now b/c everyone else is split, but when they aren't he's in trouble. I know Trump was the same way but I doubt Sanders can absorb many votes as others drop out. maybe some, not enough.

[ukpumacat]

I don't see it being Sanders either. If you put Warren's votes behind Bernie but the others behind Pete or Bloomberg, Sanders has no shot.

his best chance is that Pete and Bloomberg split the moderate vote and somehow Sanders wins at the convention.

He's winning now b/c everyone else is split, but when they aren't he's in trouble. I know Trump was the same way but I doubt Sanders can absorb many votes as others drop out. maybe some, not enough.

I agree with all of that. I just made my prediction because I don't see Amy or Pete bowing out before Super Tuesday now. And Bloomberg is just coming in. And I think Warren drops out when she loses in Nevada and South Carolina.
Its kind of a perfect situation for Sanders.
Hope I'm wrong as I think he will get beat by Trump.

[MickintheHam]

I agree with all of that. I just made my prediction because I don't see Amy or Pete bowing out before Super Tuesday now. And Bloomberg is just coming in. And I think Warren drops out when she loses in Nevada and South Carolina.
Its kind of a perfect situation for Sanders.
Hope I'm wrong as I think he will get beat by Trump.

Had to chuckle at Ol Bloomberg’s comments on profiling young blacks in NYC. I want to see what dance Obama does when he has to endorse Bloomberg. I wonder if he will bring up Trayvon Martin’s name in his endorsement speech. The dems have no focus on issues that matter.

[ukpumacat]

Had to chuckle at Ol Bloomberg’s comments on profiling young blacks in NYC. I want to see what dance Obama does when he has to endorse Bloomberg. I wonder if he will bring up Trayvon Martin’s name in his endorsement speech. The dems have no focus on issues that matter.

I could be wrong, but I really do not think Bloomberg will win the nomination. I just don’t. A lot of Dems don’t like him (including me). My fear is he will stay in just long enough to siphon votes from Pete and get Bernie the bid.

[Catfan73]

Bloomberg won’t win. There’s a backlash right now with non-boomer Democrats going against the establishment, which is why Bernie leads nationally. And the more they try to tell them how to vote (see Iowa) the more they rebel.

[MickintheHam]

I could be wrong, but I really do not think Bloomberg will win the nomination. I just don’t. A lot of Dems don’t like him (including me). My fear is he will stay in just long enough to siphon votes from Pete and get Bernie the bid.

Bloomberg’s advertising on TV is all day and night. He has spent hundreds of million. His ads are effective even if they are full of lies.

[MickintheHam]

Bloomberg appears to be closing in on the lead in Florida. He has been targeting the March 3 Super Tuesday elections and I expect he will do well, particularly if Biden is not strong in SC.

[KSRBEvans]

My hot take:

Democrats are making the same mistake Republicans did in 2016. They're waiting too long to consolidate behind one not-Sanders candidate. As a result, Sanders will get an unassailable delegate lead. He'll end up the Democratic candidate, or when the Democrats choose someone else he and his followers will bolt.

This tweetstorm by Megan McArdle comes pretty close to summing up my views on the Democratic primary season.

Trump may well have won, anyway, but this will ensure his reelection victory.

[CitizenBBN]

My hot take:

Democrats are making the same mistake Republicans did in 2016. They're waiting too long to consolidate behind one not-Sanders candidate. As a result, Sanders will get an unassailable delegate lead. He'll end up the Democratic candidate, or when the Democrats choose someone else he and his followers will bolt.

This tweetstorm by Megan McArdle comes pretty close to summing up my views on the Democratic primary season.

Trump may well have won, anyway, but this will ensure his reelection victory.

Wow, the liberal elite don't like Sanders about as much as they don't like Trump at this point. This is such fun.

They're terrified of him b/c they don't think he can win the general election, and I think they're probably right.

In that way he's a win/win for conservatives. He's likely to lose the general election, but even if he wins he's going to govern from so far Left that nothing much will ever get implemented beyond the regulatory level, and that can be undone after he tanks the economy and the GOP wins again.

[KSRBEvans]

It's way, way too early to start electoral mapping, but I'm going to throw this out there, anyway, just for fun:

Capture 2-20-20 (2).jpg

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/st...45494738456576

(ETA: It looks like that Wisconsin talk is fueled by a Quinnipiac poll that shows Trump with a 51% approval rating in Wisconsin and winning Wisconsin convincingly against any of the remaining Democratic candidates: https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/stat...65854502432768 )

[CitizenBBN]

I understand Warren went after Bloomberg with exactly my reason why he would be tough to win the nomination. If you're anti-Trump that's just swapping one arrogant billionaire for another, using Warren's comparison. Sure Bloomberg has way different stances on issues, but on a personality basis, which is how a lot of people vote, there's just no separation there to create a base for him.

I'm good with everyone feeling the Bern. He could even win, but I like Trump's chances.

They'll get a lot of media coverage with an open convention, and that may give a boost, but if the party comes out of it fractured it may not be enough to make it a net gain.

And Bloomberg can stay in this for as long as he wants, and I can easily see him trying to use his money in an open convention the same way he did to influence the debate rules. btw I don't completely buy that the rules change was Bloomberg using his power and doing something nefarious. Clearly the guy is a contender, and the fact he's self-financed is a stupid exclusion.

[Doc]

IMO Bernie wins the nomination and loses, but also flips the House, and the GOP keeps the senate. Many might think that is my wishful part but not the case. I am not a fan of one party holding both houses and the presidency. But the left shot themselves in the foot with impeachment and Bernie's socialist policies won't sit well with the general voting mass

[dan_bgblue]

I'm good with everyone feeling the Bern. He could even win, but I like Trump's chances.

Do you think that there are enough children voters that do not know what socialism is really all about to get him elected?

[Catonahottinroof]

Maybe not this election, but likely the next one

Do you think that there are enough children voters that do not know what socialism is really all about to get him elected?

[ukpumacat]

Well, a lot of things you heard on tv is just narrative.

At this point in 2016, Dems were talking about how fun it was to watch the GOP self-combust. It was far uglier...the establishment were doing everything possible to stop it...candidates were seething and calling Trump every name in the book. Trump was awful in the debates. On and on. And then he won.
None of this Dem stuff right now matters. Its just tv fodder.
What is real is that Bernie is likely to be the nominee. As was stated before, the other candidates are splitting the vote and none of them are bowing out. And Bernie will just keep getting his 30% and marching on.
Bloomberg is not winning the nomination. He's just not.
And Bernie's base is solid as a rock (as Trump's was).
Can he beat Trump? I doubt it. But no one thought Trump could beat Hillary. And no one thought he could win moderate voters with his outlandish stuff. So who knows.
But I would guess Bernie wins the nomination and loses to Trump.

Just about the only way I could see Bernie losing at this point would be if in the next two weeks, two candidates run together. Like Warren and Pete or something like that. They just come out and say..."This is our ticket, vote for us". And that's a pipe dream.

[MickintheHam]

Too early to cede the nomination to Bernie.

[Catonahottinroof]

Agreed. It may end up being a brokered convention. I’m not sure I could pop enough popcorn for that either

Too early to cede the nomination to Bernie.

[KSRBEvans]

The only way a brokered convention ends up as anyone other than Bernie is if the super delegates weigh in and shift the nomination away from Bernie.

If it ends up being someone other than Bernie after he enters the convention as the delegate leader, Bernie and his supporters will walk, run 3rd party and split the vote that would go to the Democratic nominee, ensuring Trump's reelection.

In 2016 Republicans got behind Trump under the battle cry, "Hey, he's not Hillary!" In 2020 Democrats will get behind Sanders under the battle cry, "Hey, he's not Trump!" That's all the parties are these days: parties of not-the-other person.

[ukpumacat]

The only way a brokered convention ends up as anyone other than Bernie is if the super delegates weigh in and shift the nomination away from Bernie.

If it ends up being someone other than Bernie after he enters the convention as the delegate leader, Bernie and his supporters will walk, run 3rd party and split the vote that would go to the Democratic nominee, ensuring Trump's reelection.

In 2016 Republicans got behind Trump under the battle cry, "Hey, he's not Hillary!" In 2020 Democrats will get behind Sanders under the battle cry, "Hey, he's not Trump!" That's all the parties are these days: parties of not-the-other person.

I agree. The only way Bernie goes in with the Delegate lead and doesn't get the nomination is if it is very close. And I suspect it will not be.
Again, Bernie is not the nominee of choice for many Dems. Not even close to the majority (and not mine). But he has his solid base. And Warren, Biden and Pete (and a little of Amy) keep splitting all of the other votes. Just like what happened to Trump in 2016.
Unless a couple of them drop out before Super Tuesday, the delegate lead will be insurmountable for Bernie.

[CitizenBBN]

If Bernie wins this will be a battle of bases, b/c there will be no candidate to reach out broadly to middle of the road voters. Both bases are diehard and will turn out, but Sanders will have to get enough new, mostly youthful, voters to turn out to replace the more moderate Democrats and independents who may not turn up to vote Trump out if he's the other choice.

Where Sanders is vulnerable is a) he will help make the economy a bigger issue b/c he's clearly a risk to it, and b) his lifelong commitment to socialism leaves him with a bunch of ads you can run where he's defending Castro, vacationing in the USSR, etc.

It comes down to the key swing states, and I'm not convinced he can raise enough new voters to swing them with the traditional Democratic base not being too enthused. Some could even hold their nose and vote for Trump.

Most elections come down to one party managing to nominate an even less electable person than the other one. Rarely do they nominate a candidate that is more broadly appealing. I'd say Obama had a broader appeal even though he was from the left, as did Reagan from the right.

Trump doesn't have broad appeal at all, but Hillary was as bad in terms of appeal and ran a less strategically sound campaign, and now Trump may face the candidate in the entire Dem field with the most questions about his broad appeal.

[kingcat]

I prefer Biden but Bernie would do a fine job.

The socialism thing is a farce. And it wont play like everyone opposed to a Democrat hopes imho.



Just the opposite i believe. i can see it bringing social programs to the forefront of each campaign.

One thing I believe is certain. There will be very, very few not exercise their right to vote in this election. I feel very good about that no matter who represents the Democratic party. It's importance has been magnified and amplified by each party. It is entirely possible tens of millions more will vote

[CitizenBBN]

That being said, I don't think Trump is anything like a shoe-in if Bernie is the nominee. He's not a Populist but he has that energy. he's nothing like an outsider but he's perceived as one.

He has his positives, and promising people lots of free stuff and blaming for people's problems by class baiting is always a good seller in politics.

But he's definitely the least broadly appealing candidate in the Dem field. Doesn't mean he can't build a winning coalition, but he's starting pretty far from the middle to do so. He'll have to find a whole lot more farther left voters than we've ever seen show up at the polls.

[Doc]

Interview with Bernie on 60 Minutes where he gave props to Castro for his "Literacy program". Saw this much like complimenting Hitler for getting Gernany out of the great depression