Play Kentucky Derby, 2019 KSR Style

[dan_bgblue]

The ruling had no effect on my meager wagers at all, but if that had been a NASCAR race the car behind would have just caught up and run Max Security off the track. Then run up to the car and thrown his helmet thru the window.

[blueboss]

*


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[kingcat]

Surprised they called it. But they pretty much had to imo. MS had the lane all to himself and a strait line but stepped out and impeded War of Will taking its chance away. Very close to taking that horse and jockey down.

If it were a claims race they would have certainly called it. That's just the way the sport is.

[Darrell KSR]

I show catmanjack walking away from the track with $302 in his pocket after the wagers, a nice day at the track, and the best of the bunch from us.

KSRDallen won a little money, and UKFlounder and Darrell KSR basically played even-steven, with KSRBEvans splurging on a Big Mac, Fries, Supersized, and apple pie for him and the missus with what he had left.

The rest? Hope you had an entertaining day at the track and won money on the other races!

[kingcat]

Good job Jack!. The mud was good to you my man.

[Darrell KSR]

I said that I would be shocked if they disqualified Maximum Security, but they had support for doing so, too. Still surprised. No, still shocked.

[KSRdallen]

Congrats catmanjack! I’ll take my little extra $ from a crazy outcome. Still can’t believe the DQ.

[blueboss]

Even though I used Maximum Security as my horse on top, I got too cute with the exotics so I don’t really have a horse in the conversation.

Having said that, I think Maximum Security did impede War of Will, and bumped Code of Honor lightly, but Country House was not affected.

Since War of Will, or Code of Honor didn’t file an objection IMO you leave it alone. The key is once they straightened out all neck and neck at the top of the stretch, Maximum Security out ran them all.

Do over in two weeks in Baltimore.




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[CGWildcat]

So if I bet $100 on Country House, what would have been my winnings?

[blueboss]

So if I bet $100 on Country House, what would have been my winnings?

$6625


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[blueboss]

$2.00 exacta $3009.50, for 20-13

.50 trifecta $5737.65, for the derby I think there was a minimum trifecta bet of $1.00, so $1.00 would have paid $11,475.30 for,20-13-8


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[Darrell KSR]

So if I bet $100 on Country House, what would have been my winnings?

$6625


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Blueboss gave the answer, but here's how you do it.

The payouts are listed in Win-Place-Show order for a $2 wager. So if you bet $2 on Country House to "Win," you would win $132.40. If you bet $100, instead of $2, then you'll win 50x the payout of $132.40, or $6620.

Take it a step further. If you bet $100 on Country House to "Place," you'd win 50x $56.60, or $2830. Nice.
If you bet $100 on Country House to "Show," you'd win 50x $24.60, or $1230. Those were very strong payouts because the odds were so long.

On the other hand if you bet $100 on Tacitus to "Show," you'd only win 50x $5.60, or $280. Now, remember-that's not all "winnings." That includes your original $100 wager. So your profit is "only" $180 there.

20 Country House $132.40 $56.60 $24.60
13 Code of Honor $15.20 $9.80
8 Tacitus $5.60

[catmanjack]

Just wish I had real dollars down would have been a great day.
Just a bit of insight as to why I picked country house, horse had the outside post and I thought if he got out nicely and broke inside with stride he had a shot and if you look at the relay that’s exactly what happened.
The other picks I placed them out nicely with their poles.

[CGWildcat]

Blueboss gave the answer, but here's how you do it.

The payouts are listed in Win-Place-Show order for a $2 wager. So if you bet $2 on Country House to "Win," you would win $132.40. If you bet $100, instead of $2, then you'll win 50x the payout of $132.40, or $6620.

Take it a step further. If you bet $100 on Country House to "Place," you'd win 50x $56.60, or $2830. Nice.
If you bet $100 on Country House to "Show," you'd win 50x $24.60, or $1230. Those were very strong payouts because the odds were so long.

On the other hand if you bet $100 on Tacitus to "Show," you'd only win 50x $5.60, or $280. Now, remember-that's not all "winnings." That includes your original $100 wager. So your profit is "only" $180 there.

20 Country House $132.40 $56.60 $24.60
13 Code of Honor $15.20 $9.80
8 Tacitus $5.60

Thanks for the breakdown

[kingcat]

I started to take some long shots but knew nothing about them. I have no doubt on a fast track and with mud in their eyes some are still running.

I wanted to bet all three Baffert horses with our KSR money because his entries have destroyed my bets the last few years.

I think his horses ran just out of the money to keep my string of bad betting luck intact..

[KSRBEvans]

FB friend of mine said her husband last week got them a condo at Perdido Key for next month after the school year ends, and they'll pay for it with a $20 win ticket on Country House.

[blueboss]

FB friend of mine said her husband last week got them a condo at Perdido Key for next month after the school year ends, and they'll pay for it with a $20 win ticket on Country House.

I’ll be at Perdido Key tomorrow, unfortunately a horse won’t be paying for our condo.


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[KSRBEvans]

I’ll be at Perdido Key tomorrow, unfortunately a horse won’t be paying for our condo.


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Enjoy! It's one of my favorite places to relax and forget about the world for a few days.

[Darrell KSR]

FB friend of mine said her husband last week got them a condo at Perdido Key for next month after the school year ends, and they'll pay for it with a $20 win ticket on Country House.

Sweet. Hope they toast the horse (and maybe the stewards!)

Back to the controversial DQ--here's an interesting look at it from a head-on angle.


https://twitter.com/CarsoniPH/status...457730/video/1

[KSRBEvans]

FWIW, here's racing writer Andy Beyer writing (persuasively, IMHO) about why Maximum Security should not have been DQd in spite of fouling War of Will. As he puts it, it's like deciding the NBA Finals on a foul call away from the ball:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...=.4174bddad0ad

[BigBluePappy]

I’ll be at Perdido Key tomorrow, unfortunately a horse won’t be paying for our condo.


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Ah the Redneck Riviera, East.
Enjoy, and tell it hang in there until I can visit the Gulf Shores/Orange Beach/Perdido Beach area again...
Prayers for safe travel to and from.

[blueboss]

Ah the Redneck Riviera, East.
Enjoy, and tell it hang in there until I can visit the Gulf Shores/Orange Beach/Perdido Beach area again...
Prayers for safe travel to and from.

Thanks, so far so good. Got a late start and had to endure Nashville rush hour, complete with a multi-car pile up on the south side.

Hole’d up in Athens Al. for the night. Easy five hour drive in the morning.

Fisherman’s Corner is on the menu for dinner tomorrow night... mmmm lobster bisque, and royal reds.


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[KSRBEvans]

^That's usually our 1st meal when we get there. Gumbo and Oyster po boys. Great little place under the bridge.

[KSRBEvans]

Maximum Security jockey Luis Saez suspended 15 days for "failure to control his mount and make the proper effort to maintain a straight course thereby causing interference with several rivals that resulted in the disqualification of his mount."

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...rby-infraction

I'm not a racing guy, but from a layman's eye I don't see it. Feels like Churchill Downs doubling down on their DQ decision in the face of public disagreement.

[Darrell KSR]

Maximum Security jockey Luis Saez suspended 15 days for "failure to control his mount and make the proper effort to maintain a straight course thereby causing interference with several rivals that resulted in the disqualification of his mount."

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...rby-infraction

I'm not a racing guy, but from a layman's eye I don't see it. Feels like Churchill Downs doubling down on their DQ decision in the face of public disagreement.

@TimSullivan714: Agreed with stewards’ decision on Kentucky Derby disqualification, but having hard time with 15-day suspension of Jockey Luis Saez. Feels like the second decision designed to justify the first one.

[KSRBEvans]

Not to be outdone, Maximum Security's owners file a federal lawsuit:

https://twitter.com/KentuckySports/s...81880080015360

[dan_bgblue]

Is it safe to assume that the gambling houses have settled with the bettors? It could really turn into a royal cluster if the judge or a jury decides in favor of the Maximum Security group.

[KSRBEvans]

I don't know the rule on that, but I doubt we'll have to worry about it, anyway. I don't think the suit will succeed.