Budget deficits, the Federal debt and the “govt shutdown”

[bigsky]

The govt shutdown looks a lot like what would happen if the federal govt balanced its budget and began to pay the debt back.

[KSRBEvans]

Don't hold your breath. Both parties are committed to trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see.

IMHO Bowles-Simpson was the last chance to get this thing under control. When it was rejected, they all decided to party like it's 1999 and let somebody else pay the bill sometime, maybe.

[CitizenBBN]

Everyone wants to cut the budget, just so long as it isn't part of the budget that benefits them in some way. Just cut that other stuff.

Politicians are good with it b/c they'll be gone by the time the mess comes home to roost, and in the meantime they get their jobs and pensions and such.

[UKHistory]

If one looks at the Federal budget the three largest areas are entitlements, defense and debt.

The grants, the food inspections, the clean parks, the clean water—none of this adds up to what we spend on these things.

So get rid of social security, and defense an you might see a dint in things.

Respectfully parks full of ****, closed museums and turning TSA and air traffic controllers into indentured servants is not fiscal responsibility.

With DOJ running out of money the Federal courts will be closed down soon. There is a lawless wasteland we can all be proud of.

[kingcat]

Anyone get the feeling somewhere someone we dont suspect is making money off the shutdown? And no, I dont mean the prez.

Kind of like a business owner said to me the other day about his slow service and delayed deliveries.

"They'll just be happy to get it back"

[UKHistory]

US creditors maybe. But the shutdown doesn’t just hurt Federal staff but also contractors, cleaning people, restaurants and businesses that cater to feds and contractors located near Feds.

Public transportation like buses and trains who rely on Feds coming to work.

Lots of losers in a shut down that that jackass send could go on for years.

And as far a negotiating tactic, that is insulting when your friends and family are treated like bargaining chips.

[Doc]

I've almost got my wife convinced its a PAID VACATION...because that is what it is. Don't work, get paid albeit the pay is delayed. She gets the time off w/o using vacation days. Granted, we don't rely on her paycheck to pay bills. Like most 2 working families, my paycheck is ours and goes to pay bills Her paycheck is hers and goes to whatever she wants

[kingcat]

I've almost got my wife convinced its a PAID VACATION...because that is what it is. Don't work, get paid albeit the pay is delayed. She gets the time off w/o using vacation days. Granted, we don't rely on her paycheck to pay bills. Like most 2 working families, my paycheck is ours and goes to pay bills Her paycheck is hers and goes to whatever she wants

And like me, you're still getting a good deal!

[UKHistory]

Pay being delayed is a blessing. The timing so close to Christmas and the start of second semester that people's budgets were already planned.

We should all have funds accessible to tied us over during an emergency. How long an emergency--this one is unknown.

I have funds that I can access for a year to pay basic costs. But I would not want use it. That also doesn't take into consideration medical emergencies (and the shutdown will impact people's health care at some point too).

If you have a two income home, it is less burdensome. That isn't everyone. I have a friend and his wife stays at home and doesn't work. So they have no money coming in right now.

Another friend when her husband lost his job (a while back--he is employed now) mapped out how long they could keep paying for their home.

When a furlough could go on months or years (word choice of that jackass in chief) that is not paid vacation experience.

If you are able to ride it through, that is awesome. But it is a tough situation for many.

[kingcat]

I know how living paycheck to paycheck is. It's what I do.
It could destroy me but God remains in control and has never left me and my Wife.

My faith remains in him to provide, and my responsibility remains being willing to work as he sees fit. Let him be glorified for it!

[KSRBEvans]

BTW, one reason why this is going on so long is the federal government's largest employer, DoD, is fully funded through this FY. So all DoD civilian employees are getting paid. The screams of pain if this many employees had gone this long without getting paid would cause this to get settled by now, IMHO.

Also, debt ceiling suspension expires on March 1, so you think they'd want to do some type of "grand bargain" on the debt ceiling and budget before that. But Treasury will probably do some stuff to push the date out farther, so maybe not.

[UKHistory]

I thought I heard some Fort Knox folks talk about funding through a February 5. When DOD is shut down Congress will move quicker. But TSA staff are calling in sick.

Air traffic controllers are doing their job but with no pay and that is shameful. It just is.

[UKHistory]

The govt shutdown looks a lot like what would happen if the federal govt balanced its budget and began to pay the debt back.

It looks like the government turning its people into indentured servants having them work without pay. 50,000 people recalled to work without pay.

Coast guard, tsa , IRS, food inspectors all working with no pay.

Kinda like a lot of contractors under Trump.

[Doc]

But fortunately Senators and Representative are getting paid.

[TRUCKERCATFAN]

I've almost got my wife convinced its a PAID VACATION...because that is what it is. Don't work, get paid albeit the pay is delayed. She gets the time off w/o using vacation days. Granted, we don't rely on her paycheck to pay bills. Like most 2 working families, my paycheck is ours and goes to pay bills Her paycheck is hers and goes to whatever she wants

Sounds like my household. Except mine pays the bills and whatever she wants can’t afford after she’s blown all hers.

[KSRBEvans]

Meanwhile, CBO has released 30-year projections that have the debt rising to 144% of GDP in a rosy scenario: no wars, no recessions, defense budget continues to shrink, interest rates stay low. This chart is especially scary IMHO:



I'll be gone in 30 years, but for the next generations: good luck with that. Tweet thread here:

https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/stat...65505200033792



https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/stat...65505200033792

[CitizenBBN]

What? You mean we can't just vote ourselves anything we want??? Spending more than we make has actual consequences at some point?

That sounds like a very racist, sexist, homophobic position to me, that you would be against providing basic human rights of housing, medical care, vacation time, cars, smart phones and video game consoles to the most underprivileged of our nation.

Here's a news flash: We haven't invented warp drives or figured out how to harness the power of dilithium crystals, so resources are still limited. That means not everyone will have the same standard of living or the same lifestyle of relative leisure and comfort.

[Doc]

I am waiting for the left to blame Trump. They are trying to take credit for the booming economy but suspect they will throw this on tax cuts for the rich. Only way out is to have an ecomomy that can support all paying taxes to pay for the benefits that all get

[UKHistory]

The only way out is to end social security and medicare. Screw the poor. It just is. While immigration is considered a drain on the economy potentially, the truth is that more people to pay into social security and help with medicare is good thing.

Unemployment is low. We have seen the economy grow at a higher rate than the left thought. That is undeniable.

Some of that is the tax law change reducing taxes. Some of the economic growth through the removal of regulations. That is a reality the left has to address.

Long term are those the right moves? Climate change is real; I think looking to curb out carbon footprint makes sense. I see the point of view of how China and India are polluting the world. I also know the Russians are thrilled with global warming as they will be able to better access natural resources.

I think the richest of the rich don't pay enough in taxes. But I personally(thus far) have benefitted with less taxes. My wife was looking for work about a year before she got a temp job that led to a full time gig. We will see the impacts as I even got a state tax refund and that has never happened before.

We could comb through the budget and debate many a program or policy. But the only way to really make a dent in the budget is through ending social security and medicare while drastically reducing military spending.

[KSRBEvans]

You could resolve the issue by increasing the retirement age, increasing the FICA tax %, limiting payments, or some combination of the 3. All of these choices are unpopular with voters, so they kick the can down the road, instead. That'll work.

Reminds me of what Ed Koch said once, in a different context: "The people have spoken, and they must be punished."

[Catonahottinroof]

Koch was a lifelong Democrat who described himself as a "liberal with sanity" Yeah...sanity speaking in that quote huh?

Reminds me of what Ed Koch said once, in a different context: "The people have spoken, and they must be punished."

[KeithKSR]

Social Security needs to be means tested. There is no need for millionaires to be drawing social security. There is also no reason for kids to be drawing SSI just because they are placed in special education classes.

The climate change topic is primarily a political issue. If the United States began producing absolutely no emissions tomorrow it would have no impact, due to the pollution being spewed out in India and China. The IPCC is riddled with political manipulation and has been wrong in forecast at a much higher rate than it has been correct.

[KSRBEvans]

I was listening to a podcast with an economist this morning. He said the CBO projects we will add 80 trillion to the debt over the next 30 years. Of that 80 trillion, 103 trillion are deficits from Social Security and Medicare. The rest of the federal budget is projected to run a 23 trillion surplus.

But you're never going to hear anyone propose doing anything serious with Social Security or Medicare. And the band plays on.

[KeithKSR]

I was listening to a podcast with an economist this morning. He said the CBO projects we will add 80 trillion to the debt over the next 30 years. Of that 80 trillion, 103 trillion are deficits from Social Security and Medicare. The rest of the federal budget is projected to run a 23 trillion surplus.

But you're never going to hear anyone propose doing anything serious with Social Security or Medicare. And the band plays on.

I’m not sure that is at all accurate. Social Security currently has a $2.9 trillion reserve. Experts say that it will take until 2035 to exhaust that reserve, which is the point the general fund will begin to have to supplement the SS trust to make payments.

Medicare reserves are expected to last until 2026, at which time the fund will have to be subsidized by the general fund.

The current increases in wages may push reserves out further than expected, just as reserve estimates have been pushed out a year in the past year.

Now, those funds may cost $103 trillion over the next 30 years, but claiming all the costs will be deficits would be assuming that all FICA and Medicare taxes would suddenly cease to be collected.

[dan_bgblue]

What? You mean we can't just vote ourselves anything we want??? Spending more than we make has actual consequences at some point?

That sounds like a very racist, sexist, homophobic position to me, that you would be against providing basic human rights of housing, medical care, vacation time, cars, smart phones and video game consoles to the most underprivileged of our nation.

Here's a news flash: We haven't invented warp drives or figured out how to harness the power of dilithium crystals, so resources are still limited. That means not everyone will have the same standard of living or the same lifestyle of relative leisure and comfort.

They really need to stop spending all that money looking for a new home, and put it toward creating a way to get there before all of our great, great, great, great, great, great grandchildren have great, great, great, great, great, great grandchildren, or something like that.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0731125430.htm

[bigsky]

You could resolve the issue by increasing the retirement age, increasing the FICA tax %, limiting payments, or some combination of the 3. All of these choices are unpopular with voters, so they kick the can down the road, instead. That'll work.

Reminds me of what Ed Koch said once, in a different context: "The people have spoken, and they must be punished."

Means test payouts. Eliminate the earnings cap on what is subject to tax, and put a short floor in instead. Still cap what qualifies per year.