Issac the storm

[dan_bgblue]

Folks from Mobile to the west coast of FL should be watching this storm over the next 24-48 hours. The final storm track and potential intensity will likely be known by the end of 48 hours. If it stays east and hugs the western FL coastline, hurricane development is not likely beyond a weak Cat 1 at most, but if the track is 100-200 miles west of that, a Cat 2 at landfall on the western FL panhandle or central AL coastline is much more likely. It could track straight up the center of FL and bring high winds to the Keys and south FL with lots of rain thru the central part of the state, but I think that is the least likely course.

Regardless it is gonna be a rainmaker for all in that vicinity.

[Darrell KSR]

Keeping an eye on it. Was supposed to go to the coast for some business; kinda playing it by ear right now.

[suncat05]

Might want to delay that for a couple of days, if you can Darrell.
My girls @ Emergency Management are telling me it will be mostly a rain event, with some front side winds where we're at. Myself, I kind of hope it does hug the west coast of Florida, as it will give us plenty of much needed rain and some winds that will help clear out some areas of brush/trees of weak limbs and so forth, and it also might disrupt the fall cycle of love bugs too, hopefully.
My agency has us on stand-by until we know something for sure, so I'm not wandering too far from the house. Spent all morning tidying up loose ends outside and securing everything that could potentially become a missle/projectile if picked up by the wind. We have an emergency Commission meeting @ 4 PM that I will have to attend for the Sheriff's Office.
I think we're going to be okay. I just don't see this storm turning into another "Charlie" or "Wilma", but you never know with these things.

[dan_bgblue]

From the NWS Hurricane Center 11 AM Discussion

FWIW, and I know that is not much, I completely agree with them this time.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 251502
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

ISAAC HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED BY ITS PASSAGE ACROSS HAITI. THE
LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
SHOWED THAT THE CENTER PRESSURE HAD RISEN TO 998 MB...AND THAT THE
STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 60-70 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THESE
WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN IS DISORGANIZED...WITH LARGE CONVECTIVE BANDS SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA AND LITTLE CONVECTION CURRENTLY NEAR THE CENTER. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ISAAC IS AT THE EASTERN END OF A LARGE AND
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...WHICH IS CREATING A LARGE AREA OF STRONG EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS JOGGED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 315/15. IN
THE SHORT-TERM...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES IS LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AS A UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION...
COMBINED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF ISAAC...SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS INDICATED BY THE TIGHTLY-
CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN MORE
NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A SPREAD IN
POTENTIAL LANDFALL LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE FINAL
LANDFALL POINT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS IN CALLING FOR LANDFALL
IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 72-96 HR.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
LAND INTERACTION...SOME WESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE CURRENT LACK OF
CONVECTION. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AS THE CENTER MOVES
AWAY FROM LAND...WOULD SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING AFTER 12 HR.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH 48 HR...THEN CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AFTER LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

THE NEW NHC FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF ADDITIONAL
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ISAAC DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE
AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 20.1N 74.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 21.7N 76.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 23.3N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 24.7N 81.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 25.9N 83.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 28.5N 85.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 31.5N 86.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z 33.0N 86.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

[dan_bgblue]

If anyone would like to have a Lat/Lon chart of the Atlantic hurricane basin, Carri bean, and GOM, it can be gotten here

Makes following the track of the storm easier for most folks.

[dan_bgblue]

Since distance between the Lat/Lon lines varies depending on distance from the Equator, Here is a nifty tool to use to convert Lat/Lon numbers to distance. km, nm, and sm distance scales can be chosen by user.

[Doc]

We are expecting lots of rain but are far enough out of the "cone of uncertainty" to not be too worried. However I did fire up my generator today to be sure all was working as well as dumping about 3 inches of water out of my pool (big rains tend to flood my patio which in turn fills my pool until the overflow reaches my house and into the living room, hence we lower the pool with acts as a reservior).

[Darrell KSR]

Might want to delay that for a couple of days, if you can Darrell.

Yeah, it's pretty flexible, too, so no need of even riding in a lot of rain. I can postpone it a week.

[Catonahottinroof]

I'm due on the coast next weekend. Here's to hoping its a rain event and nothing more.

[Doc]

So far its not moving all that rapidly, only around 15 mph. IMO the worse storms are the slow moving ones. I prefer them to come in and move on quickly. A slow one dumps rain and more rain. They were predicting us to be in the windfield by now but still calm.

[dan_bgblue]

212841W5_NL_sm.jpg

[jazyd]

In some ways this storm is needed as long as it does not intensify, the rain is needed in Fl, Georgia and Ala, and we could use some in Miss. We shall see what happens.

[Darrell KSR]

212841W5_NL_sm.jpg

I have little to complain about living that far from the coast, but looks like it'll be passing through me pretty good later in the week.

[dan_bgblue]

NHC bumped the storm track just a bit west at 11. They are not confident on the track at all. Once the TS completely forms an eyewall and intensifies into a hurricane, they will get a better handle on the track. The current cone of uncertainty is still very wide and truthfully extends from NO to the central FL panhandle. 1 of the most reliable computer models still is predicting a move east once the storm passes the Keys, but many others are forming a consensus for a track further to the west. I suspect at the end of the 48 hour period mentioned yesterday, we will all know much more about the track.

Issac_NL_sm.jpg

[Catonahottinroof]

Hoping for speed now. The slower it gets, the more havoc, both for my trip and subsequent workload after it happens :/

[Doc]

Hoping for speed now. The slower it gets, the more havoc, both for my trip and subsequent workload after it happens :/

Yep, it needs to get rolling. We are now getting hit with band after band. Hard rain and moderate winds. Gusts around 50 mph. I'm on the east coast of fl so this is as bad as this storm should get us. Good chance no school tomorrow for kid as buses don't run if wind over 35 mph

[suncat05]

I just left work. Winds are not too bad at this point, but we're getting a ton of rain. Just band after band of hard, driving rains. But aside from that, nothing much to report from the day shift here.
There were hardly any radio calls for service today, most everybody is doing the right thing and staying inside.

[Darrell KSR]

There were hardly any radio calls for service today, most everybody is doing the right thing and staying inside.

Occasionally people use good common sense.

Occasionally.

[dan_bgblue]

I hope the rain ceases soon, so flooding will not be an issue for most areas. Right now the center of the track is between Nola and Mobile, but the mets are still in a quandary as some models indicate a turn to the east within the next 12 to 36 hours

5 PM update from NHC

000
WTNT44 KNHC 262102
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WAS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ISAAC THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
FOUND THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM.
FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED WINDS SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
THERE IS STILL A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER
THE SYSTEM...AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTENSIFICATION STILL SEEMS LIKELY AS ISAAC
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE HIGHER HEAT
CONTENT OF THE LOOP CURRENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOREAST IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE...AND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

ISAAC HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS AND
CENTER FIXES YIELD A 6- TO 12-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION OF 295/15. THE
TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SHOW THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT
AND HEADING FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS AS TO
WHERE ISAAC MIGHT CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE U.K. MET.
OFFICE AND ECMWF MODELS ARE ABOUT 300 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE GFS
AT LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSMEBLE
MEMBERS ARE EAST OF THE GFS CONTROL TRACK. BECAUSE OF THE WIDE
MODEL SPREAD...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREATER THAN USUAL TRACK
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES AND THE FACT THAT
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE
OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 24.2N 82.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 25.1N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 26.3N 85.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 27.7N 87.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 28.9N 88.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 30.7N 89.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 32.5N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 34.5N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

[Doc]

I just left work. Winds are not too bad at this point, but we're getting a ton of rain. Just band after band of hard, driving rains. But aside from that, nothing much to report from the day shift here.
There were hardly any radio calls for service today, most everybody is doing the right thing and staying inside.

Are folks lining up for free **** yet? That is the thing about hurricanes that always cracks me up. Usually before the storm stops, folks are lining up for free water and food.

[dan_bgblue]

Track still moving west

Issac 3_NL_sm.jpg

[suncat05]

Are folks lining up for free **** yet? That is the thing about hurricanes that always cracks me up. Usually before the storm stops, folks are lining up for free water and food.

No, surprisingly. But then too, the shelters that were open here have already closed, and aside from some mild flooding there have been no reports of property damage, no injuries or weather related deaths.
Only one knucklehead was arrested yesterday, on a child support warrant.

[Darrell KSR]

Katrina-like track, Dan?

Wife's family making decision today, but think they ride out anything less than a "3." Have reservations here in Birmingham as well as Baton Rouge, as is their norm, but I anticipate they will cancel both.

[Doc]

Ugh, we are getting absolutely slammed here. The rain is incredible. There is a good chance I'll be sleeping at work tonight as my development is literally underwater. I went home at lunch to dump my pool for the third time and had a heck of a time getting in. By the time I left an hour later I nearly could not make it out (and my daughter boyfriend did in fact get swamped, his car is abandoned on the side of the road). I'd not have left home except for I have to pick my son up at 3:30. I likely will have to walk a mile thru 2 foot deep water to get home

http://www.weatherstreet.com/ridge/S...4996-radar.htm

I'm half way between west palm beach and fort pierce

[dan_bgblue]

Katrina like enough to make lots of folks nervous. The track is similar but the developmental conditions are vastly different, or at least they were this morning when I last looked at it.

[Catonahottinroof]

This will be a major flooding event. It's moving so slowly and the landfall cone is already flood prone without 15-20 inches of rain occurring.

[Doc]

School here cancelled tomorrow due to the flooding. Did not dismiss early however the school did an auto call to all parents...elementary and middle school kids had to have a parent at the bus stop or they would not let the child off and would take them back to school. First time I ever heard that happen.
We literally are standed in our development. The gate street by the gate house is basically a parking lot as folks pull in and park their cars, then walk to their homes because the streets are a lake. Cars flooded all over the place

[dan_bgblue]

My best guess. If it intensifies over night into a moderate Cat 1 it will turn more NNE and NOLA will be on the west side at landfall which will be close to Mobile or a little east of that. If it does not intensify over night, then it will move more north west at a 6-8 mph crawl and the gulf coast from Lake Charles to Pensacola will get soaked over the next 24-48 hours. TIFWIW as I don't do this for a living

[jazyd]

We are going to get a lot of rain here in central Miss, but what I hope we don't get is the tornadoes. People were lined up 4 deep at every pump last night and this afternnon.

doc it looked like you had a huge yellow band of rain on your side of the state.

[Lfbj00]

I hope you guys are faring OK down there. My buddy and his wife flew down to Daytona Saturday and are staying with his wife's parents. He called me today and said it rained all day, but they were expecting it to be better tomorrow.

It looks like Issac may track north/northeast after it makes landfall. It could be pretty interesting on Sunday for the game here in Louisville.