Election reaction

[Doc]

I'll say overall that I'm fairly pleased. Granted there are some things I'm not happy with but overall it was a good day. First and foremost, on a personal/selfish level, FL failed to elect a socialist governor. Clearly the race between Gullium and Desantis in the FL gubernatorial race was the one that affected me most so Gilliums loss was a win for me. Also big local wins was the re-election of Brian Mast as our representative and the ousting of Bill "I've done nothing" Nelson. Granted, I'm not a Rick Scott fan but I'll take him over Nelson.

Of course most on the right are going to discouraged about losing the house. I'm not all that upset as I tend to prefer a government where both sides have a say such that moderation is the norm. My only concern is that the hard left spends the next 2 years doing nothing but trying to "go after" or impeach Trump. They lost...get over it already. The only good aspect of it is that if they do it, it will severely bite them in the ass in 2020 and pretty much lock up a GOP sweep.

As for the governor's races that pretty much split, I don't really care short of the state I live in. It matters nothing to me who the Gov of Wisc or Neb is. That is local.

[Doc]

A couple local issues I didn't agree with:

FL's amendment to ban dog racing passed. The idea that this "saves" thousands of dogs is stupid. Odds are the opposite. Its a fallacy that these dogs are mistreated, no more than thoroughbred horses are mistreated. I have a retired greyhound. I've never met or treated a greyhound that was either aggressive or tentative, which is what you get with mistreated dogs.

FL also gave back voting rights to those convicted of felonies (excluding murder and sex crimes). In my book if you committed a felony you have forfeited certain privileges, one of those would be the ability to vote. You want to keep your right to vote then follow the laws of the land. We are talking felonies here, not misdemeanors. Things like major drug crimes, robbery, assaults, etc.....

[CitizenBBN]

I expected to lose the House. Too many GOP guys retiring, too hard to hold the swing back in a midterm election. Happens almost every single time, and the GOP didn't have the margin to absorb the swing and still retain control.

HOlding the Senate is the key b/c the judicial appointments can all proceed, and that's why a lot of people held their nose and voted for Trump, and so far he's doing a good job in that area.

I expect the Dem House to be really foolish with this opportunity and spend it with myriad investigations, and if they do it will only help the GOP in 2020 unless they find enough to really make a difference, and even that may help b/c running against Pence may not be as easy as they think if all of Trump's people think the election was stolen by these tactics.

If they are smart they'll propose substantive legislation, even left leaning, and let it crash against the Senate,while the Senate does the same. I expect that to be about all they both vote on, but I expect the House to really dig in on the investigation stuff b/c you have a few of the more looney of their group in charge. Maxine Waters will be a committee chair, and that woman shouldn't be in charge of rounding up stray dogs.

But there will be gridlock on any Congressional action the likes of which even Washington has never seen before. Absolutely nothing will get passed, nada. Not even a budget, which is going to make for a long series of shutdown standoffs and negotiations.

But overall I'm pleased. About the best we could hope for in what became the most targeted and highest spending midterm election in history. Winning the key Senate races and the Flrorida governor's race (key voting state in every election) was by far the best result the GOP should have reasonably hoped to achieve.

[CitizenBBN]

QUick factoid on why the GOP did well even though they lost the House. Goes to my point that there's almost always a big swing in the House in the midterms, but this one wasn't very big, it just happened to be a small starting margin. Trump did far better than Obama in holding power for example, despite the media love fest of Obama.
McEnany noted that former President Obama lost a net 63 House seats in the 2010 midterm election and former President Bill Clinton lost 54 in the 1994 midterm election.


"President Trump just lost half of that, and made gains in the Senate," McEnany said. "Sitting presidents have only gained eight Senate seats combined over 80 years. In one midterm election, President Trump gained three to four. That is historic."

[bigsky]

I think Tester will win by a whisker. There was a blue wave in Gallatin Co. with numerous county and legislative races going blue. We have to stop with same day registration and voting as the last voter in line at 8pm voted at almost midnite. All unregistered college students deciding to vote at the last minute.

[dan_bgblue]

Not even a budget, which is going to make for a long series of shutdown standoffs and negotiations.

Not passing the "Farm Bill", will really put a crimp in things as it contains many of the social programs, like AFDC, WIC, and SNAP, as well as the farm programs including export incentives and green initiatives for land stewardship and conservation. The left would love to decouple the social programs from the legacy farm programs that keep family farmers farming and cheap food on the shelves, but several members of the congress are too smart to let that happen. But back on point, can you see the left standing in congress trying to explain why children are going hungry on their watch?

[ukpumacat]

This was all exactly as expected. The Dems were expected to take the house. The Reps were expected to hold the Senate.

Its not a "win" for either party in that sense.

If I am looking at specifics that might point toward movement one way or the other:

Florida - If I were a Republican, I would count this as a small win. Its a battleground state and not like any other in the U.S. And DeSantis winning gives Trump some hope in 2020.

Suburbs - If I were a Democrat, I would look at this as a small win. Trumps anti-immigration (as they call it) policy and rhetoric is working with his true base. But its not working with suburban women. Trump surprisingly beat Clinton with white women by 10% points. But, last night, there was a shift among many of those areas toward the democrats. This could be really important in 2020.

[UKHistory]

Having Florida with a Republican government is a big deal and big win for the GOP.

My opinion on convicted felons who have served their sentences being allowed to vote again is not a popular. I do think it is the right thing to do. It won't be easy to get a job, live in a nice neighborhood, etc. Once a person has paid their debt to society, I say let them vote.

I have less motivation to allow released convicted felons to keep their right to carry a gun. And in spite of my "liberal" tendencies, I am a staunch 2nd amendment guy. First and Second amendments are essential for a free nation.

I want every US citizen to exercise their right to vote and don't wish to deny that right to any free US citizen of age.

[CitizenBBN]

I'm not trying to spin it, but IMO this is a GOP and specifically a Trump win. Him holding the House would be a GOP/Trump landslide, but the win edge has to go to Trump.

Why? B/c he has gotten 90%-95% negative main media coverage for 2 years, with every left leaning billionaire and organization and Hollywood star out there absolutely pounding the podiums against him. It's been the most widespread and relentless campaign, and the most well financed, we've ever seen for an off year election.

The only one that comes close to it is the Contract with America Gingrich engineered, but that had absolutely no main media support and nowhere near the funding. it was just well organized.

So with all of that coming at Trump, and him continuing to tweet and do and say whatever he wants to that day, he still gets gains in the Senate in key races and doesn't even see a "blue wave" in the House. A shift, enough to flip power, but not a wave IMO. Nothing like we've seen in the Obama off year response, Gingrich's Contract response, etc.

And in other races the GOP did hold some ground, esp. that Florida governor's race.

Not a big win for the GOP, can't give them that when they lose the House, but a win compared to what he was up against for sure IMO.

And honestly, in the past I'd have been surprised. He's a petulant child as Doc has said, and is off message, over the top, and generally even his supporters wish he'd stop with the absurd personal attacks, and yet despite all of that and a huge, organized, extremely well funded effort, he still held the flag and the fort even if he lost some of the territory.

Give the guy his due. He comes out and says he's a "nationalist" for example, and the media and Left try to bury him with it, and he does it right before the election, and then goes out and holds dozens of rallys, and brings in the needed votes.

And btw, he has GOT to be the hardest working campaigning president the GOP has ever had, and IMO the hardest working of either party in my lifetime. He didn't just go stump some, he went on a nationwide tour for every candidate that reached out for his support, AND shifted some of his 2020 campaign war chest to help in these races.

For all his foibles, he was the ultimate GOP team player. The GOP establishment may want to remember what he's done for them in this election.

[CitizenBBN]

FWIW the Ky 6th was a good example this year of the "win" with Trump. McGrath was a set up perfect candidate. Non-politician, woman, veteran (albeit with a misrepresented record it turns out), and outside money poured into the race to flip this one.

Lexington, sadly, is as blue as its basketball team, so she was going to have a strong built in voting base, esp. among women in this town. It was a great play by the DNC.

Yet she lost. Very very narrowly, but lost. She lost on two things:

1) She was dumb enough to be on audio tape at a Dem fundraiser proclaiming her extreme liberalism, and then on an interview totally mishandled a question on late term abortion. Barr just ran her own audio against her in ads.

2) Trump. He came here, had a big rally in Richmond, where Barr had to get out the red vote to offset Lexington.

IMO without Trump Barr may have lost. trump didn't bring a 10 point swing, but he brought enough IMO. And it's also the case he got wins in numerous races where he directly campaigned, so it supports there was an impact.

The DNC had everything going for it in this race, in a pretty tossup district thanks to Lexington's politics, and Trump put his rep on the line and came in and got a win. he got a lot more than he lost really.

Politically if the pundits would put down the butcher knives and stop the doomsday stuff they'd see this is a fascinating period in US political history, and a fascinating dynamic.

He reminds me a lot of Andrew Jackson btw. As I've thought about it I'd have to say he's probably the closest example, and there are a lot of strong similarities. I have to think this must have been a very similar tone in the 1820s as now, with the other side pulling their hair out that a callous, uncouth, common guy who constantly goes off script, is so upsetting the applecart of the political and economic elites.

[kingcat]

I have few problems with the senate. I believe they can be effective and bipartisan in their approach in many areas. McConnell I have no use for for personal reasons.

Nunes and some the house however, I am glad will be insignificant in two months. Any investigations should concentrate there imo.

Otherwise just like expected with women assuming a bigger role than ever before. That could indicate a change and some push back against political gridlock. I think women are more likely to reach across the isle than men.

[CitizenBBN]

. I think women are more likely to reach across the isle than men.

You've had a very different experience with women than I have had then, and you should count your blessings. lol

[kingcat]

You've had a very different experience with women than I have had then, and you should count your blessings. lol

I meant to each other. Heck they’ll be going to the bathroom together and stuff. Giggling about men thinking they actually are in power

[CitizenBBN]

I meant to each other. Heck they’ll be going to the bathroom together and stuff. Giggling about men thinking they actually are in power

I still maintain you've had a very different experience than myself.

Seriously, in my experience strong willed women do NOT work well with each other. My mother told me that many years ago and it's proven correct more often than not in my experience. Women are far more judgmental of each other than they are of men. They don't like us, but they figure we can't help it and cut us some slack.

[CitizenBBN]

Saw a great meme on this btw. Women always claim if they were in charge there would be no wars.

Saw this one, thought it was brilliant:

[ukpumacat]

Oh, I agree that Tuesday was a Trump win on some fronts without a doubt. I was just trying to be more specific than that.

Btw, the "media coverage" against Trump makes very little difference whatsoever. It used to in the past. But now people simply watch and read whatever outlet they already agree with and usually only glance or refer to others to solidify their preconceived bias.

I am completely fascinated by 2020. I think it is going to be an epic showdown. Trump can do virtually nothing to turn off his base as we have seen. They are entrenched and will vote for him. Which makes beating him really tough to be honest.
But, he is vulnerable in the suburbs as I stated and I think slightly vulnerable in the midwest. I wouldn't want to live in those states for the next two years for all of the commercials, robocalls, rally's, etc they are going to have. Sherrod Brown is a great example of how Dems can win those states.

For the Democrats, it all comes down to who wins the nomination. Biden would be a disaster imo and I don't think he would win. Bernie and Warren can't win the general Imo either. But could possibly win the nomination which is what Trump is hoping for. Beto will have a lot of momentum now to run and has a lot of money behind him. I think he would be a stronger candidate that many on the right would give him credit for.

I am most interested to see if a savvy Democrat does what no candidate hardly ever does and forms a Superteam before the nomination. Meaning.....they announce their nomination with someone else as their VP. It is very unlikely, but if a Democratic candidate chose Kasich or Flake to run with them...that would just be way too smart for anyone to actually do. Kasich would be a near perfect choice because of Ohio.

[Doc]

Any RINO isn't going to be picked nor would they accept based on the direction the Democratic party is going. The leading candidates are far left to socialist. Bernie is an admitted socialist. No other way to describe Warren, well she could be described as a tribalist I guess based on her heritage, or O'Rouke. Kasich and Flake might be the rights version of Blue Dog Democrats but they are still Republicans and running on a democratic ticket won't garner them any favor from either side