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  1. #1

    Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    Now that we have four games of experience under our belt, how do you see the remaining games? In order of most likely wins (in terms of percentages) to least likely, this is how I see it:

    98% - Middle Tennessee
    80% - Louisville
    70% - Tennessee
    70% - Vanderbilt
    60% - Missouri
    50% - South Carolina
    50% - Texas A&M
    25% - Georgia

    What do you see?

  2. #2
    Comeback Cat Catfan73's Avatar
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    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    How about

    95% Middle Tn
    90% Louisville
    85% Vandy
    80% Tennessee
    75% S. Carolina
    70% Missouri
    55% Texas A&M
    40% Georgia
    Don't panic

  3. #3
    Fab Five catmanjack's Avatar
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    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    I see a good chance at 11-1 record based off the percentages.

  4. #4

    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    I'm seeing 9 wins.

  5. #5
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    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    Missouri is going to be tougher than people believe.

    I actually feel better about going into A&M than Mizzou.

  6. #6

    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    99% Middle Tn
    85% Louisville
    85% Tennessee
    80% S. Carolina
    78% Vandy
    75% Missouri
    50% Texas A&M
    35% Georgia

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    “I would like to see us recover our sense that we are more alike than different. We are citizens of a republic made of shared ideals forged in a new world to replace the tribal enmities that tormented the old one. Even in times of political turmoil such as these, we share that awesome heritage and the responsibility to embrace it.”
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  7. #7
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    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    Quote Originally Posted by Darrell KSR View Post
    I'm seeing 9 wins.
    Who was that guy who made a very well thought out post last week about how UK could go 5-7?

    I love what I saw Saturday, but as someone who has long argued that our history, for better or worse, defines us, I am not going to discount the fact that we could:

    Win - Middle Tennessee
    Lose - @Louisville
    Lose - @Tennessee
    Win - Vanderbilt
    Lose - @Missouri
    Lose - South Carolina
    Lose - @Texas A&M
    Lose - Georgia

    Now, based on what I/we know right now I think we will lose vs UGA and A&M and win vs MTSU and go 3-2 vs the other 5 which, I believe, gets us to 8 wins. Could we win 9? Yep. Could we lose 6? Yep. But at least right now the latter is much, much less likely than the former.

    It's hard to win on the road in the SEC.
    "The greatest obstacle to knowledge is not ignorance—it is the illusion of knowledge."
    - Daniel J. Boorstin

  8. #8

    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    Quote Originally Posted by Bakert View Post
    Who was that guy who made a very well thought out post last week about how UK could go 5-7?

    I love what I saw Saturday, but as someone who has long argued that our history, for better or worse, defines us, I am not going to discount the fact that we could:

    Win - Middle Tennessee
    Lose - @Louisville
    Lose - @Tennessee
    Win - Vanderbilt
    Lose - @Missouri
    Lose - South Carolina
    Lose - @Texas A&M
    Lose - Georgia

    Now, based on what I/we know right now I think we will lose vs UGA and A&M and win vs MTSU and go 3-2 vs the other 5 which, I believe, gets us to 8 wins. Could we win 9? Yep. Could we lose 6? Yep. But at least right now the latter is much, much less likely than the former.

    It's hard to win on the road in the SEC.
    Hard to see 5 when we have 4 already, and a win over Miss. State. Gotta change with the times.

  9. #9
    Fab Five dan_bgblue's Avatar
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    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    U-6 and UT are dumpster fires. I believe UK would have to have a player revolt of some type and the team just quit trying before they could lose to those two teams. jmho
    seeya
    dan

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  10. #10
    Comeback Cat ETWNAPPEL's Avatar
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    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    Sticking with my 12-0

  11. #11
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    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    Quote Originally Posted by Darrell KSR View Post
    Hard to see 5 when we have 4 already, and a win over Miss. State. Gotta change with the times.
    That is an excellent point! I'm a Bayesian, I should act like one.

    I see *no* way we only get 5. But I put the odds at 5 about the same as I do the odds of 10.

    Honestly, I'm going to go with 8 and hope my prediction is about as good as the one I made prior to the MS State game.
    "The greatest obstacle to knowledge is not ignorance—it is the illusion of knowledge."
    - Daniel J. Boorstin

  12. #12
    Comeback Cat Catfan73's Avatar
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    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    Quote Originally Posted by ETWNAPPEL View Post
    Sticking with my 12-0
    That brings up a fun to think about question. Last year all four of the playoff teams had one loss, but none of them lost their conference championship game. Georgia, Clemson, and Oklahoma all won theirs while Alabama watched while Georgia beat Auburn. Assuming no one is going to beat Bama in the conference championship, would we be better off losing to Georgia and let them face them or go undefeated and have to play them ourselves? In the second scenario I could see Georgia getting the invite if we lost to Bama and each ended up with one loss.
    Don't panic

  13. #13

    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    Quote Originally Posted by Catfan73 View Post
    That brings up a fun to think about question. Last year all four of the playoff teams had one loss, but none of them lost their conference championship game. Georgia, Clemson, and Oklahoma all won theirs while Alabama watched while Georgia beat Auburn. Assuming no one is going to beat Bama in the conference championship, would we be better off losing to Georgia and let them face them or go undefeated and have to play them ourselves? In the second scenario I could see Georgia getting the invite if we lost to Bama and each ended up with one loss.

    I don’t concede that no one is going to beat Bama.

    That said, to answer your question, in theory, we would be better beating UGA and losing to Bama. I don’t think we’d get in under either scenario, but If we’re going to have one loss and not be a conference champ, we would need a massive win on the resume. If we lose to UGA in the regular season, we’re not a conference champ and we don’t have the series of teams a team from the West would have.

    That’s all insanely premature of course, but fun to think about.

  14. #14
    Fab Five dan_bgblue's Avatar
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    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    In the second scenario I could see Georgia getting the invite if we lost to Bama and each ended up with one loss.
    I think there is a 95% chance that is exactly how it would play out.
    seeya
    dan

    “I am more than just a Serious basketball fan. I am a life-long Addict. I was addicted from birth, in fact, because I was born in Kentucky.” Hunter S Thompson

  15. #15
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    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    Below is the current Sagarin Predictor and ESPN FPI Win Probability for UK's remaining games.

    Overall, right now UK is favored by .5 over SC, 10 over Vandy, 8.5 over TN, 23 over MTSU, and 5.5 over U6. They are dogs to A&M by 10, UGA by 10.5 (!?), and MI by 2. In the remaining games, in order, ESPN gives us the following win probabilities: 46.3%, 21.5%, 76.5%, 34.5%, 14.6%, 70.5%, 90.9%, and 74.2%.
    "The greatest obstacle to knowledge is not ignorance—it is the illusion of knowledge."
    - Daniel J. Boorstin

  16. #16

    Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    Quote Originally Posted by Bakert View Post
    Below is the current Sagarin Predictor and ESPN FPI Win Probability for UK's remaining games.

    Overall, right now UK is favored by .5 over SC, 10 over Vandy, 8.5 over TN, 23 over MTSU, and 5.5 over U6. They are dogs to A&M by 10, UGA by 10.5 (!?), and MI by 2. In the remaining games, in order, ESPN gives us the following win probabilities: 46.3%, 21.5%, 76.5%, 34.5%, 14.6%, 70.5%, 90.9%, and 74.2%.
    Are you thinking the UGA line is a little low? Or something else?

  17. #17
    Comeback Cat Catfan73's Avatar
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    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    If you use Sagarin’s “recent” ratings you get:

    WIN over S. Carolina by 9
    WIN at aTm by 1
    WIN over Vandy by 21
    WIN at Missouri by 7
    Lose to Georgia by 4
    WIN at Tennessee by 20
    WIN over Middle Tn by 30
    WIN at Louisville by 14

    Double the delta from the predictor to the recent and you get wins by 17, 12, 33, 15, 2 over Georgia, 31, 37, and 23.
    Don't panic

  18. #18
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    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    Quote Originally Posted by Darrell KSR View Post
    Are you thinking the UGA line is a little low? Or something else?
    Hard to believe we would be +10 to A&M and only +10.5 to UGA.
    "The greatest obstacle to knowledge is not ignorance—it is the illusion of knowledge."
    - Daniel J. Boorstin

  19. #19

    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    Quote Originally Posted by Catfan73 View Post
    If you use Sagarin’s “recent” ratings you get:

    WIN over S. Carolina by 9
    WIN at aTm by 1
    WIN over Vandy by 21
    WIN at Missouri by 7
    Lose to Georgia by 4
    WIN at Tennessee by 20
    WIN over Middle Tn by 30
    WIN at Louisville by 14

    Double the delta from the predictor to the recent and you get wins by 17, 12, 33, 15, 2 over Georgia, 31, 37, and 23.
    That would be insane, but I’d love to see it happen, lol!!!

  20. #20

    Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    Quote Originally Posted by Bakert View Post
    Hard to believe we would be +10 to A&M and only +10.5 to UGA.
    Well, if you consider the home field, it's really more like a TD difference. (Assuming a 3-point home field advantage).

    We would be about +4 to A&M if the game were in Lexington, or we'd be about +16.5 if the UGA game were in Athens. So flip the home fields for both games and it looks a lot different. But apples to apples, about 6.5 points difference.

  21. #21
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    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    I saw that months ago. Can we get to ten. Maybe.
    Quote Originally Posted by Darrell KSR View Post
    I'm seeing 9 wins.
    Real Fan since 1958

  22. #22

    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    Quote Originally Posted by Bakert View Post
    Below is the current Sagarin Predictor and ESPN FPI Win Probability for UK's remaining games.

    Overall, right now UK is favored by .5 over SC, 10 over Vandy, 8.5 over TN, 23 over MTSU, and 5.5 over U6. They are dogs to A&M by 10, UGA by 10.5 (!?), and MI by 2. In the remaining games, in order, ESPN gives us the following win probabilities: 46.3%, 21.5%, 76.5%, 34.5%, 14.6%, 70.5%, 90.9%, and 74.2%.
    I'm not seeing A&M being on par with Georgia. That just isn't realistic.

  23. #23
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    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    Quote Originally Posted by KeithKSR View Post
    I'm not seeing A&M being on par with Georgia. That just isn't realistic.
    I agree which was my point above. However, if you saw Darrell's post he pointed out that those spreads include home field bumps for A&M and us, something I failed to take into account. On a neutral field UK would be around +7 to A&M and +13/14 to UGA. That is getting closer to what most would think.
    "The greatest obstacle to knowledge is not ignorance—it is the illusion of knowledge."
    - Daniel J. Boorstin

  24. #24

    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    Quote Originally Posted by Bakert View Post
    I agree which was my point above. However, if you saw Darrell's post he pointed out that those spreads include home field bumps for A&M and us, something I failed to take into account. On a neutral field UK would be around +7 to A&M and +13/14 to UGA. That is getting closer to what most would think.
    I’m not even seeing them that close with location factored in. I think A&M is getting way too big a boost based on the OOC blowouts. Which game best exemplifies A&M, the close loss to Clemson or the blowout to Alabama?

  25. #25

    Re: Updated: Percentage Chance of Kentucky winning each remaining game

    Quote Originally Posted by Bakert View Post
    Below is the current Sagarin Predictor and ESPN FPI Win Probability for UK's remaining games.

    Overall, right now UK is favored by .5 over SC, 10 over Vandy, 8.5 over TN, 23 over MTSU, and 5.5 over U6. They are dogs to A&M by 10, UGA by 10.5 (!?), and MI by 2. In the remaining games, in order, ESPN gives us the following win probabilities: 46.3%, 21.5%, 76.5%, 34.5%, 14.6%, 70.5%, 90.9%, and 74.2%.
    That would indicate UK would win 8.4 games (roughly, done in my head). Not far off from what most are (now) predicting, I think, between 8 and 9.

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