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  1. #1
    Comeback Cat Catfan73's Avatar
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    Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Murray State
    Central Michigan
    Middle Tennessee
    Vanderbilt
    South Carolina
    @ Missouri
    @ Tennessee
    @ Texas A&M
    @ Louisville
    Miss. State
    @ Florida
    Georgia
    Don't panic

  2. #2

    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Great topic. Now put the likelihood, in percentages, of how likely you think Kentucky will win each game.

    My kneejerk attempt without much thought:

    95% - Murray State
    85% - Central Michigan
    85% - Middle Tennessee
    55% - Vanderbilt
    40% - South Carolina
    30% - @ Missouri
    25% - @ Tennessee
    25% - @ Texas A&M
    35% - @ Louisville
    20% - Miss. State
    10% - @ Florida
    5% - Georgia

    I sure hope those numbers are way pessimistic, because that's a 5-win season, I think.

  3. #3

    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    In order of likelihood:

    Murray
    CMU
    MTSU (I absolutely hate that we have scheduled this team again. They're dirty, they chop block and cut offensive linemen, and it led to a fight last time we played them IIRC).
    Vandy
    Mizzou
    USC
    UT
    UofL
    Miss St.
    UF
    A&M
    UGA

    I think we go 6-6 or 7-5.

  4. #4
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    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Quote Originally Posted by dtalbersjr View Post
    In order of likelihood:

    Murray
    CMU
    MTSU (I absolutely hate that we have scheduled this team again. They're dirty, they chop block and cut offensive linemen, and it led to a fight last time we played them IIRC).
    Vandy
    Mizzou
    USC
    UT
    UofL
    Miss St.
    UF
    A&M
    UGA

    I think we go 6-6 or 7-5.
    I hate the MTSU game as well.

    Here is my take.

    Murray
    Central Michigan
    Vandy
    MTSU
    Looeyville
    Tennessee
    Mizzou
    Florida
    South Carolina
    MissStake
    Texas A&M
    Georgia

    It will be a 5 or 6 win season. If there is one win that is an upset, it is Florida.
    Real Fan since 1958

  5. #5
    Comeback Cat Catfan73's Avatar
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    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    I'd like to hold out hope on the Florida game but they already had more talent and just got a real coach.
    Don't panic

  6. #6

    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Quote Originally Posted by MickintheHam View Post
    I hate the MTSU game as well.

    Here is my take.

    Murray
    Central Michigan
    Vandy
    MTSU
    Looeyville
    Tennessee
    Mizzou
    Florida
    South Carolina
    MissStake
    Texas A&M
    Georgia

    It will be a 5 or 6 win season. If there is one win that is an upset, it is Florida.
    That looks about right to me although you could put MO, FL and SC in a hat and pick the order and I wouldnít quibble. 6 wins looks about right to me or a 5-7 range depending on if we can get anything remotely close to comparable at the QB position. Iím afraid Johnson is going to really be tough to really tough to replace especially from a leadership standpoint although hopefully Snell will pick up some of that.

  7. #7
    Fab Five catmanjack's Avatar
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    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    This is what I donít get our one real football fan terry blue not chiming in on this thread.
    Any football thread that he doesnít start gets no response.
    Standing by my 5 win claim with 6 hopefully for the Birmingham bowl and a stoops raise!

  8. #8
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    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Quote Originally Posted by catmanjack View Post
    This is what I don’t get our one real football fan terry blue not chiming in on this thread.
    Any football thread that he doesn’t start gets no response.
    Standing by my 5 win claim with 6 hopefully for the Birmingham bowl and a stoops raise!
    I believe he understands it is a trap. It requires analysis and critical thinking. That’s different from just passing on crap that fits an agenda.
    Real Fan since 1958

  9. #9

    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Talk about calling the kettle black, ha, agenda for some of you is spelled..NEGATIVE. I do have a few other things in life to do besides reside here. I have already said any pick between 5-8 or 9 wins could be called reasonable. My psychological profile places me in the analytical/analytical category so any statement I make is based on analysis and been proven over time to be accurate a large % of the time, but not perfect

  10. #10

    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    BTW, any prediction now is worthless. I never make my annual prediction till the week of the first game. Too many things can happen, both good and bad in the interim. A thorough analysis cannot be made till most of the variables become more stable. Maybe that's why in 12 years in doing this I've only missed twice, maybe 3 times in coming at least within 1 win of the final total

  11. #11
    Fab Five catmanjack's Avatar
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    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Honestly a chimp could predict the final record for UK with no analysis of the team.
    The win total never ships more then a plus minus of 2 with a range of 5-7 wins.

  12. #12

    Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Quote Originally Posted by catmanjack View Post
    Honestly a chimp could predict the final record for UK with no analysis of the team.
    The win total never ships more then a plus minus of 2 with a range of 5-7 wins.
    There really aren't a lot of shocks usually. Hopefully, if there is a surprise with Kentucky's win-loss total varying much from the six most seem to be fixated on, it will be on the plus side.

    When I ran my numbers on the percentages, I came up between five and six wins. Hopefully we can see something more like the eight wins that we haven't seen in decades.

  13. #13
    Comeback Cat Catfan73's Avatar
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    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Quote Originally Posted by Catfan73 View Post
    99% Murray State
    90% Central Michigan
    85% Middle Tennessee
    80% Vanderbilt
    60% South Carolina
    50% @ Missouri
    30% @ Tennessee
    25% @ Texas A&M
    20% @ Louisville
    10% Miss. State
    5% @ Florida
    5% Georgia
    What’s that come out to lol? Darrell, yours adds up to 510%. Divided by 12 games that’s only 42.5% each. How do figure it’s 5 wins? 12 X .425? (5.1). Mine adds up to 559%, or 5.6 wins (I guess).
    Last edited by Catfan73; 07-12-2018 at 07:19 PM.
    Don't panic

  14. #14

    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Quote Originally Posted by Catfan73 View Post
    What’s that come out to lol? Darrell, yours adds up to 510%. Divided by 12 games that’s only 42.5% each. How do figure it’s 5 wins? 12 X .425? (5.1). Mine adds up to 559%, or 5.6 wins (I guess).
    It's actually just as easy as you just did it.

    When you add the percentages up, remember they are percentages. So 95% isn't 95, it's 0.95. In other words, close to 1 win. Taking my top two games, I have 0.95 + 0.85, or 1.8....close to 2 wins in those 2 games. And so on, and so forth.

    Adding all of mine up, you get 5.10, or 5.1 wins.

    Adding all of yours up, you get 5.59 wins.

    You're slightly more optimistic than I am, by about Ĺ game.

  15. #15

    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Let me take the most *reasonable* optimistic view I can take. This is just me here.

    99% - Murray State
    95% - Central Michigan
    95% - Middle Tennessee
    65% - Vanderbilt
    50% - South Carolina
    40% - @ Missouri
    35% - @ Tennessee
    25% - @ Texas A&M
    45% - @ Louisville
    20% - Miss. State
    20% - @ Florida
    10% - Georgia

    Here's how those numbers shake out- 0.99 + 0.95 + 0.95 + 0.65 + 0.50 + 0.40 + 0.35 + 0.25 + 0.45 + 0.20 + 0.20 + 0.10 = 5.99.

    Hey, anything can happen. And every game will be a real 1.0 or 0.0, so the numbers mean absolutely nothing when the game kicks off, and when it ends. I just keep coming up between 5 and 6 wins when I look at everything. If I was trying to be smart and guess "within 1" of the actual total, I'd take 6, because 5 or 7 would be more likely than 4, IMHO, even though I think 5 is most likely.

    But like Terry says, a LOT can happen between now and kickoff of the first game--not just with Kentucky, but with all of our opponents. Of course, the best guess would be a week by week guess, which would take into account things happening during the season, too. Can't do that with a "preseason" prediction, but you can wait until kickoff, or the week of the first kickoff--which I'm sure we'll do when time grows closer. And of course, I reserve the right to change my mind between now and then, too. I might be convinced we are better than I think, and those sub-50% numbers become 50+% numbers. That's the real key for my predictions. I have too many sub-50% games.

  16. #16

    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Quote Originally Posted by Darrell KSR View Post
    Let me take the most *reasonable* optimistic view I can take. This is just me here.

    99% - Murray State
    95% - Central Michigan
    95% - Middle Tennessee
    65% - Vanderbilt
    50% - South Carolina
    40% - @ Missouri
    35% - @ Tennessee
    25% - @ Texas A&M
    45% - @ Louisville
    20% - Miss. State
    20% - @ Florida
    10% - Georgia

    Here's how those numbers shake out- 0.99 + 0.95 + 0.95 + 0.65 + 0.50 + 0.40 + 0.35 + 0.25 + 0.45 + 0.20 + 0.20 + 0.10 = 5.99.

    Hey, anything can happen. And every game will be a real 1.0 or 0.0, so the numbers mean absolutely nothing when the game kicks off, and when it ends. I just keep coming up between 5 and 6 wins when I look at everything. If I was trying to be smart and guess "within 1" of the actual total, I'd take 6, because 5 or 7 would be more likely than 4, IMHO, even though I think 5 is most likely.

    But like Terry says, a LOT can happen between now and kickoff of the first game--not just with Kentucky, but with all of our opponents. Of course, the best guess would be a week by week guess, which would take into account things happening during the season, too. Can't do that with a "preseason" prediction, but you can wait until kickoff, or the week of the first kickoff--which I'm sure we'll do when time grows closer. And of course, I reserve the right to change my mind between now and then, too. I might be convinced we are better than I think, and those sub-50% numbers become 50+% numbers. That's the real key for my predictions. I have too many sub-50% games.
    Solid summation, D, and appreciate everyoneís thoughts as I try to flesh out my own expectations at this early juncture. Itís a pivotal season in Stoops tenure, I think we all agree, and while it obviously canít be an outcome if I had to pin my current thoughts to an expectation the 5.6 mentioned above feels about right - most likely 6 wins, but much more on the 5 side than 7 given the schedule and the unknown/inexperience under center.

    I will say as discussed previously, while the W total is the ultimate determination of success in a particular game, I will be equally if not more mindful of the way we compete and if we exhibit a fundamentally sound, organized unit in all three phases.

    That is to say 6 wins earned via hard fought, consistent, competitive effort across a 12 game body of work may be far more heartening in regard to the programís direction than 7 wins over a see saw affair of close wins and lopsided losses. If we show little growth and make poor adjustments from some of the snafus weíve experienced in the past, the frustrations and doubts will linger.

  17. #17
    Fab Five catmanjack's Avatar
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    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    The bad part is you really have UK winning 1 SEC game.
    Itís year 6 and we all know if Stoops only wins 1 SEC game itís time to go in a different direction.

  18. #18

    Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Quote Originally Posted by catmanjack View Post
    The bad part is you really have UK winning 1 SEC game.
    Itís year 6 and we all know if Stoops only wins 1 SEC game itís time to go in a different direction.
    Actually, 2.1 SEC games.

    If my life depended on getting it exact today, I'd probably say Kentucky would go 5-7 (2-6).

  19. #19
    Fab Five catmanjack's Avatar
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    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Really want football to be successful in every way possible!

  20. #20
    Fab Five catmanjack's Avatar
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    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Itís really hard to pick a road game they will win and thatís 0-5 right there.

  21. #21
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    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Quote Originally Posted by catmanjack View Post
    It’s really hard to pick a road game they will win and that’s 0-5 right there.
    The optimists have us winning on the road at UT and Mizzou. I believe our chances are better at Gainesville and Looeyville.
    Real Fan since 1958

  22. #22
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    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    If we only win 4 games this season, then BOTH Stoops and Mitch need to go ASAP!
    And looking at the schedule seriously, 4 to 5 wins is a very real possibility.
    We had a golden opportunity last year to make some noise and we flat out blew it. Or our coach did. The loss to Florida, and how it happened, sent Kentucky into a downward spiral for the remainder of the season.

  23. #23
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    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Quote Originally Posted by MickintheHam View Post
    The optimists have us winning on the road at UT and Mizzou. I believe our chances are better at Gainesville and Looeyville.
    IF, and these are mighty big IF'S, we win any of those four road games, I tend to think it would be U of L & Missouri.
    We are not going to win either game in Gainesville or Knoxville. Not gonna happen. Truthfully, I think we get destroyed in both of those games. JMHO.

  24. #24
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    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Quote Originally Posted by suncat05 View Post
    IF, and these are mighty big IF'S, we win any of those four road games, I tend to think it would be U of L & Missouri.
    We are not going to win either game in Gainesville or Knoxville. Not gonna happen. Truthfully, I think we get destroyed in both of those games. JMHO.
    Normally, I would agree with you. What makes the Florida game different this year is the new coaching staff at Florida. We are lucky enough to catch them early. The hardest thing for a new staff to do is communicate with each other and with the team. Most players and coaches will tell you that it takes 5 or 6 games to get communication straightened out. Secondly, I am counting on our team to be mad enough about last year's game to put it all on the line....overcoming any of the coaching glitches that have hounded this head coach. If this game were mid season or a day game, I wouldn't give you a tinker's damn for our chances. But this year, I like the way the game sets up for Kentucky.
    Real Fan since 1958

  25. #25
    Comeback Cat Catfan73's Avatar
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    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Quote Originally Posted by MickintheHam View Post
    Normally, I would agree with you. What makes the Florida game different this year is the new coaching staff at Florida. We are lucky enough to catch them early. The hardest thing for a new staff to do is communicate with each other and with the team. Most players and coaches will tell you that it takes 5 or 6 games to get communication straightened out. Secondly, I am counting on our team to be mad enough about last year's game to put it all on the line....overcoming any of the coaching glitches that have hounded this head coach. If this game were mid season or a day game, I wouldn't give you a tinker's damn for our chances. But this year, I like the way the game sets up for Kentucky.
    Interesting take, hopefully you’re right. I do think we’ll steal a game we probably shouldn’t win but I have every confidence we’ll give one back too.

    We face new staffs in week 2 (UF), week 4 (MS), week 6 (aTm), and week 11 (UT). If there’s a saving grace to this season this might be it, catching these programs in transition, but Stoops is going to have to quit making costly mistakes or it won’t matter anyway. And while the jury will be out for awhile on the two with no head coaching experience, the other two are definite upgrades over the guys they fired.
    Don't panic

  26. #26

    Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    MickintheHam guarantees a Kentucky win over Florida!

  27. #27
    Comeback Cat Catfan73's Avatar
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    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Where our opponents are ranked right now on teamrankings.com with projected records...the schedule looks far from daunting if we had even a top 30 team but alas...

    5 Georgia 13-2
    18 Louisville 8-5
    19 Miss. State 9-4 (looks right; all three of these teams killed us last year)

    43 Missouri 7-6
    45 S. Carolina 9-4
    46 Texas A&M 7-6 (while certainly beatable, only one of these three is at home)

    61 Florida 4-7
    64 Kentucky 7-6

    82 Vandy 5-7
    84 Tennessee 4-8
    89 Central Michigan 8-5
    95 Middle Tennessee 7-6

    Will Florida and Tennessee really be that bad this year? Even if they are, we’re ranked above only 5 teams (including Murray), and the one we’re even with is on the road. Maybe our HC calms down and we jump up about 20 spots lol. I won’t be holding my breath.
    Don't panic

  28. #28
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    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Quote Originally Posted by Catfan73 View Post
    Interesting take, hopefully you’re right. I do think we’ll steal a game we probably shouldn’t win but I have every confidence we’ll give one back too.

    We face new staffs in week 2 (UF), week 4 (MS), week 6 (aTm), and week 11 (UT). If there’s a saving grace to this season this might be it, catching these programs in transition, but Stoops is going to have to quit making costly mistakes or it won’t matter anyway. And while the jury will be out for awhile on the two with no head coaching experience, the other two are definite upgrades over the guys they fired.
    I agree. We have to beat UT and UF this year. Otherwise, the next opportunity is not on the horizon.
    Real Fan since 1958

  29. #29
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    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Quote Originally Posted by Darrell KSR View Post
    MickintheHam guarantees a Kentucky win over Florida!
    Thanks, Forrest! I’ll wear that proudly around my neck.
    Real Fan since 1958

  30. #30
    Fiddlin' Five StuBleedsBlue2's Avatar
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    Re: Ranking UK's football schedule in order or most likely to win

    Quote Originally Posted by Terminus View Post
    That looks about right to me although you could put MO, FL and SC in a hat and pick the order and I wouldnít quibble. 6 wins looks about right to me or a 5-7 range depending on if we can get anything remotely close to comparable at the QB position. Iím afraid Johnson is going to really be tough to really tough to replace especially from a leadership standpoint although hopefully Snell will pick up some of that.
    Agreed.

    I think weíre beating Florida on our way to 7 wins.

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