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  1. #1

    Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19


  2. #2
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    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Actually, that graph triggers a good conversation piece.

    For those that gripe so much about having to reload every year, what would be your minimum threshold for returning scoring, rebounding and assists?

    I'm not a griper, but for me it depends a lot who's coming in, but I would like be in that 40-60% range for any given stat. However, that's a very fluid answer.

  3. #3

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    I'm going to be very pleased with what we have returning. When you add 3-5 5* players to a team with 40-60% returning production, that bodes well for the team in general.

  4. #4

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Given Cal isn't going to stop recruiting the elite talent, if we could get 40% returning production each year, I think that would be a good mix with new talent.

  5. #5

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Strike Hami too

  6. #6

    Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Quote Originally Posted by ebarbaau View Post
    Strike Hami too
    When did he announce?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    "I have touched all the so-called capitals of basketball, but when it gets down to the short stroke, the only true capital of basketball is in Lexington." AL McGuire

  7. #7

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Updated with SGA/Hagans announcements.

    1 UK Roster 2018-19.jpg

  8. #8

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    By the way, by explanation, I just used "Guard" for the 1-2-3 positions, and "Forward" for bigs, 4's and 5's. You can rearrange guys like Johnson if you'd like. I consider Gabriel more of a 4 than a 3.

  9. #9

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Updated with the Pulliam announcement.

    By my count we have 12 scholarship players (not counting Brad Calipari), and two walk-ons (counting Brad Calipari).1 UK Roster 2018-19.JPG

  10. #10

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Hagans is not a definite 2018 kid right now.

  11. #11

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    This is going to get worse unfortunately. Not better.

  12. #12

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Darrell KSR View Post
    I'm going to be very pleased with what we have returning. When you add 3-5 5* players to a team with 40-60% returning production, that bodes well for the team in general.
    The two teams that have won it all with the lowest returning production were (unsurprisingly) UK in 2012 and Duke in 2015.
    Their %ís relative to returning points/rebounds was:
    UK - 55/52
    Duke - 41/50

    So, that would be the absolute floor for me. BUT...and this is a big BUT because it goes back to one of my concerns for next years team:
    That was only possible because both of those teams had elite talent coming in.
    Davis is one of the best college basketball players of all time.
    And Okafor and Winslow were both NBA lottery picks.
    Those numbers can hover around 50% IF you have a Top 3 draft pick coming in.
    Those were transcendent college players.

    Iím not going to do the math right now on every National Champion in the last 10 years....but I can nearly guarantee you the average is closer to 70%.

    Cal has been here 10 years. He has gotten to the Final Four when he has a mix of experience AND elite talent.
    If we lose anyone else, next year we are lacking in the experience category...AND do not have elite/transcendent talent (which is somewhat subjective. But I am using Top 5 high school player as my guide).
    Now, if we donít lose anyone else...I will feel better.
    And if we donít lose anyone else AND add Wiseman or Carey for this years class....weíll then I will feel optimistic at our chances for the Final Four.
    Still just waiting to see how it all shakes out.
    Last edited by ukpumacat; 04-10-2018 at 05:52 PM.

  13. #13

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Sooooo....

    lookin' at that roster, today as it stands NOW, I'll take the following for starters and reserves...


    Starters:

    PG Green
    SG Diallo
    SF Johnson
    PF Gabriel
    PF Washington


    Reserves:

    PG Hagans
    PG Quickley
    SG Herro
    PF Vanderbilt
    C Richards


    That leaves Baker, Montgomery, and Calipari in the 11-13 slots on this roster. That's DEEP baby.

    Starters include 1 Jr., 3 So., and ONLY ONE Freshman. Multiple players capable of playing multiple positions on both sides of the ball.

    Reserves include a three guard lineup with size and D at the point, shooting from the guards, and stout rebounding/athleticism inside.

    Perhaps I should somehow find minutes for Baker and Montgomery in the Top 10 of the rotation, but our guards/wings will be playing multiple guard/wing spots, depending on rotations, but maybe Montgomery will take minutes from someone. I just see PJ and Wenyen as our minutes horses down there, Richards getting a lot off the bench, but Vanderbilt too (IF Jarred doesn't start, which he very well might).

    Man, this is a tough roster to slot guys into. We'll see if it changes again.

    Who ya got, anyone?
    "Shut your eyes and you'll burst into flame"

  14. #14

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Quote Originally Posted by ukpumacat View Post
    The two teams that have won it all with the lowest returning production were (unsurprisingly) UK in 2012 and Duke in 2015.
    Their %’s relative to returning points/rebounds was:
    UK - 55/52
    Duke - 41/50

    So, that would be the absolute floor for me. BUT...and this is a big BUT because it goes back to one of my concerns for next years team:
    That was only possible because both of those teams had elite talent coming in.
    Davis is one of the best college basketball players of all time.
    And Okafor and Winslow were both NBA lottery picks.
    Those numbers can hover around 50% IF you have a Top 3 draft pick coming in.
    Those were transcendent college players.

    I’m not going to do the math right now on every National Champion in the last 10 years....but I can nearly guarantee you the average is closer to 70%.

    Cal has been here 10 years. He has gotten to the Final Four when he has a mix of experience AND elite talent.
    If we lose anyone else, next year we are lacking in the experience category...AND do not have elite/transcendent talent (which is somewhat subjective. But I am using Top 5 high school player as my guide).
    Now, if we don’t lose anyone else...I will feel better.
    And if we don’t lose anyone else AND add Wiseman or Carey for this years class....we’ll then I will feel optimistic at our chances for the Final Four.
    Still just waiting to see how it all shakes out.
    Meh. I'm unconvinced by absolutes. You can't convince me that 2012 Kentucky was the absolute bottom number of returning production that it takes to win a title. It's a little like the Ken Pomeroy AdjO and AdjD numbers. Those numbers are the key until they aren't. The game has changed, and is continuing to evolve. One year it will be a team winning with 80% returning production. The next year it will be a version of the Michigan Fab Five.

    I'll stick with the 40-60% and 3-5 5* players and be in the hunt more often than not, statistics be damned. Now, it has to be the right mix of players, shooters, alpha dogs, rebounders, etc. It doesn't happen in a vacuum. Nothing happens in a vacuum. That's why I'm even hesitant to be formulaic with it, but that's why I built in a fairly large margin (40-60%, and 3-5 5* players is a lot of leeway).

    JMO. That isn't making a prediction on this particular year's team, but I will be content just about every year if we do fall within those parameters. It will work out more often than not.

  15. #15

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    For sure. I think I would agree with that Darrell. Unfortunately we could possibly drop below that level in return production. I absolutely hope not.
    Cal has just yet to win without a Top 5 guy. It doesnít mean he canít. But he hasnít. Which means Iím not confident until he does it without one.

  16. #16

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Quote Originally Posted by ukpumacat View Post
    For sure. I think I would agree with that Darrell. Unfortunately we could possibly drop below that level in return production. I absolutely hope not.
    Cal has just yet to win without a Top 5 guy. It doesn’t mean he can’t. But he hasn’t. Which means I’m not confident until he does it without one.
    Win what? Are you referring to Final Fours or titles? What do you mean by top 5? NBA draft or recruiting rankings?

  17. #17

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Quote Originally Posted by ukpumacat View Post
    For sure. I think I would agree with that Darrell. Unfortunately we could possibly drop below that level in return production. I absolutely hope not.
    Cal has just yet to win without a Top 5 guy. It doesn’t mean he can’t. But he hasn’t. Which means I’m not confident until he does it without one.
    Agree with all of that as well. I'm trying to be careful not to be overly optimistic, even if we don't drop (and we may very well drop) below those numbers. I think those superstar players play such a vital role, for sure.

    Here's a story Jon Hale has today on "best case" and "worst case" roster for next year.

    https://www.courier-journal.com/stor...ons/497954002/

  18. #18

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Updated with Diallo's likely departure. Not necessarily accurate with Hagans.

    2018-19 UK Roster.jpg

  19. #19

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Despite all the chatter about PJ and Quade, in my gut I still believe in the end PJ, Quade and Vanderbilt will all be back, making this an experienced AND talented team.

    Don't feel as good about Wenyen, but I really hope we hold on to him as well.

  20. #20

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Quote Originally Posted by dtalbersjr View Post
    Despite all the chatter about PJ and Quade, in my gut I still believe in the end PJ, Quade and Vanderbilt will all be back, making this an experienced AND talented team.

    Don't feel as good about Wenyen, but I really hope we hold on to him as well.
    If we lose one more the % drops below the least experienced teams to ever win it all.
    And those teams had AD and Okafor on them.
    I just really hope we keep them all.

  21. #21

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Quote Originally Posted by ukpumacat View Post
    If we lose one more the % drops below the least experienced teams to ever win it all.
    And those teams had AD and Okafor on them.
    I just really hope we keep them all.
    ....and hope that it's a weak year for elite teams.

  22. #22

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Quote Originally Posted by dtalbersjr View Post
    Despite all the chatter about PJ and Quade, in my gut I still believe in the end PJ, Quade and Vanderbilt will all be back, making this an experienced AND talented team.

    Don't feel as good about Wenyen, but I really hope we hold on to him as well.
    I think you are correct.

  23. #23

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Darrell KSR View Post
    ....and hope that it's a weak year for elite teams.
    College hoops will be down next season more than this season.

  24. #24

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Quote Originally Posted by KeithKSR View Post
    College hoops will be down next season more than this season.
    I gave this possibility some thought the other day.

    Why do you think it will be down more than this past odd season?
    "Shut your eyes and you'll burst into flame"

  25. #25

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Final4 Pj Green Vandy n Wenyen who u got?? I could see all four leaving or staying... I'm going Green n Wenyen gone how bout you

  26. #26

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Krank View Post
    I gave this possibility some thought the other day.

    Why do you think it will be down more than this past odd season?
    Fewer quality experienced teams, with a less talented group of freshmen coming in.

  27. #27

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Quote Originally Posted by KeithKSR View Post
    Fewer quality experienced teams, with a less talented group of freshmen coming in.
    Interesting.

    That does sound right. I don't keep up with the relative quality of classes like some of y'all do, but I did have another thought...

    I wonder if the recent changes in transfer rules will make it's most significant impact yet in the coming year.

    Sort of an X-factor, but certain teams, mostly major conference programs, will seal up a bit of that experience issue with transfers, both grad and non.

    I wil be interested to see how competitive next year will be, how deep that competition will get, and how much relative flow there will be in teams perceived to be more or less powerful.

    Season's too far away though, lol...

    looking forward to the NBA Playoffs for that reason.
    "Shut your eyes and you'll burst into flame"

  28. #28

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Quote Originally Posted by KeithKSR View Post
    College hoops will be down next season more than this season.
    That *will* have an impact.

  29. #29

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Harlow View Post
    Final4 Pj Green Vandy n Wenyen who u got?? I could see all four leaving or staying... I'm going Green n Wenyen gone how bout you
    Iím saying PJ, Quade and Vanderbilt stay and Wenyen leaves.

  30. #30

    Re: Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Just wanted to bump this.

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