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  1. #1
    Comeback Cat Catfan73's Avatar
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    1-4 seed upsets 2012 thru 2016

    There were no upsets of any of the top 16 seeds last year in the first round but there have been a spate of them in the recent past. In the five tournaments from 2012 to 2016 there were:

    Four 2 seeds that lost their first game (a whopping 50% of the 2s that have lost since 1985): Duke to Lehigh 12; Missouri to Norfolk St. 12; Georgetown to FGCU 13; Michigan St. to MTSU 16)

    Five 3 seeds (out of 21 total): New Mexico to Harvard 13; Duke to Mercer 14; Baylor to Georgia St. 15; Iowa St. to UAB 15; WVU to SF Austin 16)

    Three 4 seeds (out of 26): (Michigan to Ohio U. 12; Kansas St. to La Salle 13; Cal to Hawaii 16)

    Going by the averages for the 28 years prior to this span, there should have been only 0.71 2s get beat, 2.86 3s, and 4.11 4s. Did we return to normal last year or should we expect a return of the upsets? Also of note, out of those 12 underdog winners only 3 went on to win their next game and none made it to the elite eight.
    Don't panic

  2. #2

    Re: 1-4 seed upsets 2012 thru 2016

    Arizona used to appear on that list with Lute Olson. I'd love to see it happen again this year.

  3. #3

    Re: 1-4 seed upsets 2012 thru 2016

    The thing that jumps out to em, specifically on the 3 seeds is that other than Duke, those are non-traditional powers. Even on the 2 seeds (again excepting Duke..see a trend) they are non-traditional powers.

    First, shows Duke is Overseeded . But also that Non-traditional powers may get overseeded because they got some unexpected wins (could be a number of reasons) or do not know how to prepare come tourney time for that type of environment.

  4. #4
    Comeback Cat Catfan73's Avatar
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    Re: 1-4 seed upsets 2012 thru 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by VirginiaCat View Post
    The thing that jumps out to em, specifically on the 3 seeds is that other than Duke, those are non-traditional powers. Even on the 2 seeds (again excepting Duke..see a trend) they are non-traditional powers.

    First, shows Duke is Overseeded . But also that Non-traditional powers may get overseeded because they got some unexpected wins (could be a number of reasons) or do not know how to prepare come tourney time for that type of environment.
    Some of that occurred to me also and makes me wonder if maybe the committee isn’t getting too activist in their seeding.
    Don't panic

  5. #5

    Re: 1-4 seed upsets 2012 thru 2016

    I feel the Selection Committee, the networks and cities put games together as much as they can for the money prospects. They can over/underrate a team to make the match seem legal. If the games play out like they want they would maximize their profit. What messes it up is the lesser teams don’t read the script and don’t play like the decision making powers want…and do it every year!

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