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  1. #31

    Re: Kentucky opens -3 point favorite over Vanderbilt

    Line is -2, -2Ĺ, and even one place -1Ĺ at this point, per various books at Vegasinsider.com.

  2. #32

    Re: Kentucky opens -3 point favorite over Vanderbilt

    Iím very surprised anyone thinks we should win by more than 3. Itís Memorial - itís their super bowl. We are still trying to figure out how to play. A recipe for disappointment today.

  3. #33

    Re: Kentucky opens -3 point favorite over Vanderbilt

    Quote Originally Posted by CatQuick View Post
    I’m very surprised anyone thinks we should win by more than 3. It’s Memorial - it’s their super bowl. We are still trying to figure out how to play. A recipe for disappointment today.
    I'm guessing I'm the oddball here, because I'm not seeing it being a 3-point game. It's their Super Bowl, but Cal has won 5 of 7 there, and usually by 6+ or more; only once less than that.

    We'll see. I know everybody hopes they're wrong, and I'm right. I'm usually the pessimistic one, so this whole thing is bizarro world to me.

  4. #34

    Re: Kentucky opens -3 point favorite over Vanderbilt

    IMO this team is still way too young to predict. They're getting better but they are equally likely to gut out a close win like A&M or LSU and to lose control of it and flop at the finish like UT. I'd only bet on this team with a gun to my head at least for another 30 days or so.
    Saigon. .... I'm still only in Saigon

  5. #35

    Re: Kentucky opens -3 point favorite over Vanderbilt

    No doubt. They could lose this game by double digits. I certainly recognize that possibility as well.

  6. #36
    Oscar Combs thought like I did.

    @wildcatnews: Looks like Vegas oddsmakers not very high on Calís guys this year. All these close Opening lines not good. Shocked that UK isnít at least a 6-pts fav today. Unless something changes soon, I donít expect UK to be favored on the road more than once rest of SEC and maybe none. #BBN

  7. #37
    Comeback Cat Catfan73's Avatar
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    Re: Kentucky opens -3 point favorite over Vanderbilt

    The -3 didn't surprise me but the drop (-2 now) kind of does. We're only 6-9-1 against the spread this year but Vandy is 1-11-1. Lots of people are throwing money away or we're missing something.
    Don't panic

  8. #38

    Re: Kentucky opens -3 point favorite over Vanderbilt

    Quote Originally Posted by Catfan73 View Post
    The -3 didn't surprise me but the drop (-2 now) kind of does. We're only 6-9-1 against the spread this year but Vandy is 1-11-1. Lots of people are throwing money away or we're missing something.
    Isn't the spread more of an encouragement to bet than a predictor?

  9. #39

    Kentucky opens -3 point favorite over Vanderbilt

    Quote Originally Posted by KeithKSR View Post
    Isn't the spread more of an encouragement to bet than a predictor?
    Yep, Iím guessing thereíd be a lot of action giving the points (2), which in turn should move the line.


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    "I have touched all the so-called capitals of basketball, but when it gets down to the short stroke, the only true capital of basketball is in Lexington." AL McGuire

  10. #40

    Re: Kentucky opens -3 point favorite over Vanderbilt

    Quote Originally Posted by KeithKSR View Post
    Isn't the spread more of an encouragement to bet than a predictor?
    Quote Originally Posted by blueboss View Post
    Yep, I’m guessing there’d be a lot of action giving the points (2), which in turn should move the line.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Yep. So far, most of the money has been bet on Vanderbilt, which has lowered the line. Even when it was lowered Ĺ point, most of the money was still coming in on Vanderbilt, which lowered it another Ĺ point. At some point, the bookies are trying to get more people to bet on Kentucky so that the money on both sides will be relatively even, which insures that they will make money as a result of the juice they collect.

    I'm like Oscar Combs--I really thought it would be -6 or more, and then move according to the betting public. Vegas knew better, though, as even with a small line, most people were thinking Vanderbilt.

  11. #41

    Kentucky opens -3 point favorite over Vanderbilt

    Quote Originally Posted by Darrell KSR View Post
    Yep. So far, most of the money has been bet on Vanderbilt, which has lowered the line. Even when it was lowered Ĺ point, most of the money was still coming in on Vanderbilt, which lowered it another Ĺ point. At some point, the bookies are trying to get more people to bet on Kentucky so that the money on both sides will be relatively even, which insures that they will make money as a result of the juice they collect.

    I'm like Oscar Combs--I really thought it would be -6 or more, and then move according to the betting public. Vegas knew better, though, as even with a small line, most people were thinking Vanderbilt.
    -2, not much room for error.... I was originally thinking take Ky and give the points... but now theyíre scaring me.


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    "I have touched all the so-called capitals of basketball, but when it gets down to the short stroke, the only true capital of basketball is in Lexington." AL McGuire

  12. #42
    Comeback Cat Catfan73's Avatar
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    Re: Kentucky opens -3 point favorite over Vanderbilt

    The spread is never a predictor except for the starting line they set but even that is influenced by where they see the money going and where they need to be in order to balance their risk. A lot of people bet without really doing any homework and based on media and rankings might think UK is ripe for an upset today or at least a bet to not cover. And other than UK fans people love to see UK lose.
    Don't panic

  13. #43

    Re: Kentucky opens -3 point favorite over Vanderbilt

    Darrell, in hindsight, you were right, I was wrong. Good call

  14. #44

    Re: Kentucky opens -3 point favorite over Vanderbilt

    Not so much. Game could've gone either way. That's why they call it gambling, I suppose.

    I really thought the line SHOULD'VE been more like -6 or -7, but that doesn't mean anything. Several computer models showed it ought to be more like -4 or -5. Close enough.

  15. #45
    Comeback Cat Catfan73's Avatar
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    Re: Kentucky opens -3 point favorite over Vanderbilt

    It’ll be interesting to see what they come up with on the SC game. IMO it should be UK by around 4 1/2 so I’m bracing myself lol. We’ll probably end up the underdogs.
    Don't panic

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