Unemployment Report

[CattyWampus]

The media is busy this morning trying to convince us that the latest report is cause to celebrate. The Unemployment rate dropped to 7.7%. Even the voices on the WSJ Report on the radio this morning were giddy with delight.

Never mind that the 146,000 jobs created doesn't meet the threshold to keep up with the growth of those entering the job market. When GWB was POTUS, we were reminded that it took 150-200 thousand new jobs each month just to tread water and to keep the unemployment rate from rising. Now, the media doesn't seem to think that's important.

Never mind that it took 540,000 people leaving the job market to allow the unemployment rate to drop to 7.7%.

There's an old saying that "figures don't lie but liars figure". The quote is commonly accredited to Mark Twain. Others think that it might be a quote from Carroll D. Wright, Charles H. Grosvenor or James G. Blaine. Whoever said it must have been thinking about government statisticians when they said it.

I saw this interesting image on Twitter this morning, but it's too large to copy here. Here is a facsimile of what the image contained:

If we measured unemployment today the way they did in the 1930's, today's unemployment would be worse than any single year of the great depression.

1931- 15.3% ------ 2009- 21%
1932- 22.9% ------ 2010- 22%
1933- 20.6% ------ 2011- 22%
1934- 16.0% ------ 2012- 23%

I don't know the veracity of these numbers, but considering how hard the BOL seems to work to massage real numbers, I certainly wouldn't be surprised that these numbers are absolutely accurate.

[cattails]

Well when the 29 hr work week kicks in what do you think the % will be?

[CattyWampus]

Well when the 29 hr work week kicks in what do you think the % will be?

I figure that between the 29 hr week and the continued increase of people giving up looking for a job, thereby taking them out of the workforce calculation, unemployment will be down to around 3% by the end of 2014. Good job, Obamie!

[jazyd]

If it wasn't so sad it would be funny.

figures never lie but liars can figure, I used to use that line with sales mgrs when they tried cutting our commissions.

[Doc]

Xmas bump, will be gone in a month

[jazyd]

plus the always revised down a month later report. This administration is the biggest liars to ever hit DC

Xmas bump, will be gone in a month

[samanthalopez]

Recent reports from Bureau of Labor and Statistics say that the duration time that people remained without work dropped to 35.3 weeks in the first month of 2013. That was a decline from December’s 38.1 weeks, which itself was a drop from the 40.2 weeks seen in January 2012. This could be because people are frustrated and giving up that they will still get a job. Good thing this country has unemployment benefits, which is supposedly long enough if a person is trying hard to find a job. Article resource:Unemployed duration drops nationally, not as good as it sounds

[Doc]

I can promise that if I lost my job, it wouldn't take me 35.3 weeks to find employment. It might not be the job I wanted but it would be a paycheck. Of course I'm not eligible for unemployment since I'm self employed. Of course if you paid me for 35 weeks without me having to work, then odds are it would take me about 35.3 weeks to find a job too.

[dan_bgblue]

Of course if you paid me for 35 weeks without me having to work, then odds are it would take me about 35.3 weeks to find a job too.

[KeithKSR]

There are a lot more unemployed people than the statistics indicate. One thing my wife has found is that there are a lot of jobs that are advertised, but are not being filled because of the economy.

[badrose]

Recent reports from Bureau of Labor and Statistics say that the duration time that people remained without work dropped to 35.3 weeks in the first month of 2013. That was a decline from December’s 38.1 weeks, which itself was a drop from the 40.2 weeks seen in January 2012. This could be because people are frustrated and giving up that they will still get a job. Good thing this country has unemployment benefits, which is supposedly long enough if a person is trying hard to find a job. Article resource:Unemployed duration drops nationally, not as good as it sounds

Welcome, Samantha! Tell us a little about yourself.

[badrose]

I can promise that if I lost my job, it wouldn't take me 35.3 weeks to find employment. It might not be the job I wanted but it would be a paycheck. Of course I'm not eligible for unemployment since I'm self employed. Of course if you paid me for 35 weeks without me having to work, then odds are it would take me about 35.3 weeks to find a job too.

I think it's prudent to use that time to try to find a job that pays similar to the last one. Naturally, if it expires you take the best available.

[KeithKSR]

I think it's prudent to use that time to try to find a job that pays similar to the last one. Naturally, if it expires you take the best available.

With the difference in work age Americans and jobs available right now it is an employers market. Obama and others fail to see that the influx of illegal immigrants hurts our economy much more than they spout in their talking points. Strengthening our borders guards against as many illegal immigrants.

[Doc]

I think it's prudent to use that time to try to find a job that pays similar to the last one. Naturally, if it expires you take the best available.

I don't. I think it's prudent to take any job that pays and work to find a better job. It might mean taking a job delivering Pizza's at night or "flipping burgers". It sure wouldn't take me 9 months which is how long one can take unemployment, and in some cases longer. If its taking that long for me to find a job, I'm not looking in the right places.... or maybe I'm not looking at all.

[KeithKSR]

I don't. I think it's prudent to take any job that pays and work to find a better job. It might mean taking a job delivering Pizza's at night or "flipping burgers". It sure wouldn't take me 9 months which is how long one can take unemployment, and in some cases longer. If its taking that long for me to find a job, I'm not looking in the right places.... or maybe I'm not looking at all.

It comes down to the old if you have a job it is easier to get a job thing.

Let's skip the unemployment benefits and look at our societal issues. I heard on the radio in the last few weeks that people who receive government benefits (not unemployment, Soc Security, but other stuff) receive an average of $46K in benefits. Also heard that it would take an income of $65K to equal the benefits of people who take advantage of all available governmental benefits.

Where is the incentive to work?

[jazyd]

Some pizza delivery guys make a good living and much is cash tips. Had a friend with a degree who just delivered and made $40,000 a year


UOTE=Doc;54612]I don't. I think it's prudent to take any job that pays and work to find a better job. It might mean taking a job delivering Pizza's at night or "flipping burgers". It sure wouldn't take me 9 months which is how long one can take unemployment, and in some cases longer. If its taking that long for me to find a job, I'm not looking in the right places.... or maybe I'm not looking at all.[/QUOTE]

[BigBlueBrock]

I don't. I think it's prudent to take any job that pays and work to find a better job. It might mean taking a job delivering Pizza's at night or "flipping burgers". It sure wouldn't take me 9 months which is how long one can take unemployment, and in some cases longer. If its taking that long for me to find a job, I'm not looking in the right places.... or maybe I'm not looking at all.

Have you ever actually been unemployed and received UI benefits? I think you mentioned you are self-employed, which probably means the answer is no. Let's do a little thought experiment Mr. "I'm too good for unemployment!"

You're a middle-class worker, making right around the national average of $44,000/yr. Company downsizes, your department is gutted and you're unemployed. Maximum weekly benefit in KY? $415 before federal income tax (yes, you can opt to pay federal income tax of 10% out of your UI check). If you worked 40 hours a week, you'd have to find a job paying $10/hr to make the same. But you're not going to deliver pizzas or flip burgers at $10/hr, you're going to do that at minimum wage, which is $7.25/hr. And you're not going to work 40 hours a week at McDonald's because they're only going to schedule for a maximum of 32 hours. So you work two jobs at minimum wage for 40-50 hours a week. Shitty jobs where you are treated like filth, feel like ass, and smell like grease at the end of the day. And while you're doing all that, you're trying to find a "real" job.

OR

You could suck it up, take your UI benefit, which was already paid for by your previous employer, use your time to train/educate AND look for a job that isn't a menial or below your abilities. One that actually pays close to, or even more than, what you were making before. Did you know that studies have shown that when someone takes an underpaying job that they are overqualified for, it takes them at least five years to reach their true income potential again?

FYI, I lost my job in August of 2009. While unemployed, I took advantage of a UI program that paid for work training/certification programs. I used that to get a CCNA. While taking the class, even though I wasn't required to do so to continue receiving my UI benefit, I continued to look for suitable employment to no avail. In April of 2010, just as my initial UI benefits expired (I was about to apply for the extension), I took a temp job with UKHC's info sec team, doing user provisioning for the hospital making ~$13/hr. While working there, I applied for numerous positions at UK. In June of 2010, I was offered a full-time position at UK's main data center on campus, a job which required a CCENT or equivalent, which is the cert a tier below what I got. It also paid ~40% more than what I had been making at my previous full-time job. I've since continued my education at UK, gained another tech cert, and recently moved to the hospital's data center, which came with a 20% raise. None of that would have happened if I'd been "too good" for UI benefits and worked myself to death in shitty jobs while scrambling for a low-salary job in a crappy economy. In summation - Your point of view on this matter is myopic and reeks of ignorance.

[BigBlueBrock]

Some pizza delivery guys make a good living and much is cash tips. Had a friend with a degree who just delivered and made $40,000 a year

Yeah, and there are strippers that make more than twice what I do. That doesn't mean either of these jobs are worth doing for most of the people that do them.

[suncat05]

To each his own, BBB. I see what you're saying, and I disagree with you. Each individual must do whatever is best for him/her in their own personal situation. If that means taking up a lesser paying job until a better paying job comes along, then so be it. Been there, done that, and it worked for me. But that was me. Maybe you have another way to approach your situation that works for you and if so, then good for you.
But everyone is not you. Only you is you. And not every solution that works for you will work for someone else. Hence, different solutions work for different people.

[badrose]

BBB, you make some good points in your post(s). Don't let them get lost due to your tendency make and take things personal. We're all adults here.

[CitizenBBN]

Shitty jobs where you are treated like filth, feel like ass, and smell like grease at the end of the day. And while you're doing all that, you're trying to find a "real" job.

OR

You could suck it up, take your UI benefit, which was already paid for by your previous employer, use your time to train/educate AND look for a job that isn't a menial or below your abilities. One that actually pays close to, or even more than, what you were making before. Did you know that studies have shown that when someone takes an underpaying job that they are overqualified for, it takes them at least five years to reach their true income potential again?

Yeah, that would sure be tough being treated like the 10s of millions who do those jobs to survive. Having to do hard, backbreaking work like housing tobacco or digging ditches or serving people. You know, menial labor that is beneath a person. I can't imagine where the attitude comes that condones those people being treated so badly.

I'm glad the system worked for you. You availed yourself of it and benefited. That's what it was designed to do, but it operates on the built in assumption that those using it are like yourself and will try to use it as a springboard to another job and even career. The problem is for every one of you there are more that will not use it to benefit and will simply drain on the system.

However, your obvious condescension at honest work, albeit blue collar "menial" labor, shows why so many say they "can't find work". They can find work, just not the work they think befits their social status. They dont' care to work 2 jobs for 50-60 hours a week, or do the nasty and backbreaking jobs.

As for the previous employer paying for it, that's not really the case. True the employer pays the unemployment tax, but there are two key points as regards this issue. First, what the tax covers is a fraction of what one draws on unemployment. It covers only part of the program costs, so it is in fact paid for mostly by the taxpayers of that state through general revenues. Second, as a tax it is not in the end paid by the employer but rather is paid by the employees of the company as a payroll tax.

So you paid part of your own unemployment, but it was small compared to what you received. the rest was paid for by the other employees and the taxpayers at large. In fact when you and others at that company claimed the remaining employees paid more b/c the rates went up.

That's fine, it worked for you and made you a contributing taxpayer again. It does work for people, and certainly not everyone who takes benefits is lazy or not trying. Not at all. That's great. Now if we can just figure out those millions of others who aren't trying hard enough to contribute again we'll have something.

[BigBlueBrock]

However, your obvious condescension at honest work, albeit blue collar "menial" labor, shows why so many say they "can't find work". They can find work, just not the work they think befits their social status. They dont' care to work 2 jobs for 50-60 hours a week, or do the nasty and backbreaking jobs.

As opposed to other people's obvious condescension towards a person that avails themselves of the system in place to help bridge the gap between qualified employment?

And I'm sorry if I seem 'condescending' toward fast food or garbage pickup jobs. But I'm educated, I'm trained, I'm intelligent, and I have positioned myself for a professional career path in IT. Yes, picking up garbage is beneath me. Would I do it if I had to? Yes. Would I take advantage of every possible avenue to keep from doing it? Yes. I'm not a blue collar worker, which is why I went to college.

[CitizenBBN]

To each his own, BBB. I see what you're saying, and I disagree with you. Each individual must do whatever is best for him/her in their own personal situation. If that means taking up a lesser paying job until a better paying job comes along, then so be it. Been there, done that, and it worked for me. But that was me. Maybe you have another way to approach your situation that works for you and if so, then good for you.
But everyone is not you. Only you is you. And not every solution that works for you will work for someone else. Hence, different solutions work for different people.

The problem is pretty simple. The welfare state and all it's various tentacles assumes the person is like BBB, who availed himself of the chances and desired to get off the system and to a better economic status. If everyone approached it like he did we wouldn't be having this discussion, the system wouldn't be sucking billions of dollars every year, and this nation wouldn't have a permanent generational underclass.

The reality however is that for every BBB out there there are far more people content to scam the system rather than take the steps to leave the system and be self sustaining and contributing to the economy.

FWIW unemployment does pay a pittance. I won't say it's a big help. It does help, but it's not a big amount of money, and as these programs go it is one of the least addictive and expensive. In some ways that's not good b/c then you apply for food stamps and numerous other things, and the system starts dragging you in. Save some money? Now your benefits are cut off? Find a job? Benefits cut off.

So you do the math like BBB did except the answer is to turn down the $10/hr job b/c you'd lose your benefits. It would take a far better job, better than you're likely to get, to justify the change. Soon the victim mentality creeps in, you lose that confidence and need to be self reliant, slowly thinking you've been wronged and "deserve" your benefits and subconsciously accept you can't do it on your own, and the liberal "war on poverty" has claimed another life.

There's nothing 'wrong' with taking UI benefits IMO, but I do have an issue with not taking a job "beneath" a person and I do know entering the system is a lifelong and even generational proposition for 10s of millions.

[CitizenBBN]

As opposed to other people's obvious condescension towards a person that avails themselves of the system in place to help bridge the gap between qualified employment?

So your condescension is OK b/c others are also condescending?

[BigBlueBrock]

So your condescension is OK b/c others are also condescending?

Well if you're going to yell at me for being condescending, I would suppose you'd yell at others for being just as condescending. But their condescension falls in line with your own, so you don't notice it.

The reality however is that for every BBB out there there are far more people content to scam the system rather than take the steps to leave the system and be self sustaining and contributing to the economy.

It's difficult to scam the UI system. You're required to report an X amount of job applications every week. If you have to go on extended benefits, that number doubles and the reporting frequency increases. Most people on UI benefits don't WANT to be on UI. That want to do the work they've prepared themselves to do through education, training, and experience and fulfill as much of their earning potential as possible.

[badrose]

My wife and I have always depended on dual income in order to make ends meet sufficient to the lifestyle we want in raising our two daughters. Historically, her income has been mostly commission based while I earned a good salary in retail/retail management except for a few good years as a personal trainer. As the economy got worse, her income dried up and my income was not quite enough to cover all the basics. The potential for hers if the opportunities were there were greater than my own so I left my job to do the marketing to support her efforts. That failed. Other opportunities in her field were few where we lived so she looked around instate and found her current job; salary-based with good bonuses based on the profits her employer made each quarter BUT WE HAD TO MOVE. In the meantime, while at her previous job, the owner let me go after checking on my unemployment benefits status. Turns out because I hadn't been with them long enough the basis for my WC pay was deferred to my former employer which ended up being about my take home pay while I worked there, about $500/week. I still looked for good jobs in the meantime but few retail jobs were available where we currently live. I've ended up doing what I did doing what I did after graduating high school, working in a grocery store part-time. I don't look at it as beneath me. I'm grateful they gave me a job and I return the favor by putting 100% effort into it and they in turn maximize my hours which is limited because of Obamacare and its cost to employers. I can't average more than 28 hours a week but sometimes I get close to 40 which really isn't that much more $$$ because of the higher rate of deductions. Still, I'm appreciated by those I work for and with, and unless something better becomes available I'll get my opportunity when new stores open or an opening becomes available in my current location.

[CitizenBBN]

Well if you're going to yell at me for being condescending, I would suppose you'd yell at others for being just as condescending. But their condescension falls in line with your own, so you don't notice it.

I notice it, and you'll be hardpressed to find any in my posts (go ahead, try), but there is a difference. I just don't care to discuss that yet b/c it would let you off the hook for defending your view of menial labor, and I'm keen to understand how one defends such a view of honest work.

It's difficult to scam the UI system. You're required to report an X amount of job applications every week. If you have to go on extended benefits, that number doubles and the reporting frequency increases. Most people on UI benefits don't WANT to be on UI. That want to do the work they've prepared themselves to do through education, training, and experience and fulfill as much of their earning potential as possible.

I agree UI is the least problematic of all the systems, as I stated more than once. I disagree it's hard to scam though b/c I've known way too many people who do so. First they scam it by applying when they were terminated for cause. Sometimes it works, sometimes not. Kentucky seems to have gotten tougher on those filing false claims, but years ago it was almost impossible for an employer to successfully appeal and win. Trust me we tried.

I've seen it scammed, and with little effort. You just have to be good at cheating. I won't share the details of how, but it's not hard.

I agree many (maybe most) don't want to be on it. It's the better of the group of such programs, but many who are on it are way too focused on their "earning potential" versus the reality of their situations.

there's no inherent guaranteed "earning potential". If jobs in a sector dwindle it doesn't matter if you got a degree in that area with a 4.0 average. The market determines what things are worth and that earning potential can change for better or worse. You worked to get different or better qualifications and shifted to get a good job, but many do not. What they did for a living has become a more restricted market where they may not have the qualifications for the few jobs remaining, or they otherwise need to change careers. The UI system can help them do that, but it can also be a crutch to keep them from doing so. All depends on how they approach their situation.

I have no desperate issue with UI, but I have to agree that "can't find work" isn't accurate. "Can't find work which meets my qualifications" or "can't find work that returns me to my prior earning potential" is more accurate. Maybe that's OK, maybe not, but it's more accurate.

the system was there to bridge not between a good job A and a good job B, but between two jobs. Far too many people are unwilling to do work "beneath them" in this country. No work done honestly is beneath anyone, nor is any person doing such work honestly beneath anyone.

want to do some crappy jobs? Try farming, or construction work. I've done both, may have to do them again you never know.

[BigBlueBrock]

I have no desperate issue with UI, but I have to agree that "can't find work" isn't accurate. "Can't find work which meets my qualifications" or "can't find work that returns me to my prior earning potential" is more accurate. Maybe that's OK, maybe not, but it's more accurate.

It absolutely is OK. People go to (and pay for) college and work training for a reason. They have years of experience in their field which is inherently valuable to them. It should absolutely be OK for a victim of downsizing or just a shitty employer to try and maximize their earning potential while searching for a job on UI benefits and that person shouldn't be treated like some ignoble heathen just because they want to wait until they have absolutely no choice before taking a job sweeping floors.

[Doc]

Have you ever actually been unemployed and received UI benefits? I think you mentioned you are self-employed, which probably means the answer is no. Let's do a little thought experiment Mr. "I'm too good for unemployment!"

You're a middle-class worker, making right around the national average of $44,000/yr. Company downsizes, your department is gutted and you're unemployed. Maximum weekly benefit in KY? $415 before federal income tax (yes, you can opt to pay federal income tax of 10% out of your UI check). If you worked 40 hours a week, you'd have to find a job paying $10/hr to make the same. But you're not going to deliver pizzas or flip burgers at $10/hr, you're going to do that at minimum wage, which is $7.25/hr. And you're not going to work 40 hours a week at McDonald's because they're only going to schedule for a maximum of 32 hours. So you work two jobs at minimum wage for 40-50 hours a week. Shitty jobs where you are treated like filth, feel like ass, and smell like grease at the end of the day. And while you're doing all that, you're trying to find a "real" job.

OR

You could suck it up, take your UI benefit, which was already paid for by your previous employer, use your time to train/educate AND look for a job that isn't a menial or below your abilities. One that actually pays close to, or even more than, what you were making before. Did you know that studies have shown that when someone takes an underpaying job that they are overqualified for, it takes them at least five years to reach their true income potential again?

FYI, I lost my job in August of 2009. While unemployed, I took advantage of a UI program that paid for work training/certification programs. I used that to get a CCNA. While taking the class, even though I wasn't required to do so to continue receiving my UI benefit, I continued to look for suitable employment to no avail. In April of 2010, just as my initial UI benefits expired (I was about to apply for the extension), I took a temp job with UKHC's info sec team, doing user provisioning for the hospital making ~$13/hr. While working there, I applied for numerous positions at UK. In June of 2010, I was offered a full-time position at UK's main data center on campus, a job which required a CCENT or equivalent, which is the cert a tier below what I got. It also paid ~40% more than what I had been making at my previous full-time job. I've since continued my education at UK, gained another tech cert, and recently moved to the hospital's data center, which came with a 20% raise. None of that would have happened if I'd been "too good" for UI benefits and worked myself to death in shitty jobs while scrambling for a low-salary job in a crappy economy. In summation - Your point of view on this matter is myopic and reeks of ignorance.

So if I read your post correctly, you didn't have a job until unemployment was about to expire, then you took a job that paid less but continued to apply for a better job until you got one. WOW, thats a novel idea..one I wish I had suggested.

As for this "Let's do a little thought experiment Mr. "I'm too good for unemployment!"" What a crock of ****! Nowhere did I ever say I was too good for unemployment. What I stated was that as a business owner I'm not eligible for unemployment. To be honest, you know jack **** about me. When you spend a year scooping chicken **** then you can lecture me about crappy jobs. You ever climb into a 50 foot long troth that is 2 feet deep with chicken excrement and have to use a shovel to scoop it out? I did it twice weekly for nearly a year, and did it for minimum wage. When you spend 5 years cutting up dead animals, working with stinking decomposing vile carcasses of animals, then you can tell me about your rough life. My first job after graduating school was working 6pm to 8am four nights a week (Th-Sat) at an Animal Emergency clinic. That was each and every weekend, nearly 60 hrs a week with no overtime since it was a salary job and not paid by hourly rate. I did it because I didn't have a choice since I had a wife and kid and it was the best paying job I could find. Didn't matter that is sucked. Its what I did. Its not meant to be a discussion about who has had the worse job. For me, I do whatever I have to to support my family. I don't want to be a ward of the government. I'd rather flip burgers... or shovel chicken ****!

My stance is studies show that there is direct correlation between length of unemployment benefits and the time needed to find a job. Here is a link to one such discussion. I'm going to take an excerpt from another one:

This paper provides new evidence on job search intensity of the unemployed in the U.S., modeling job search intensity as time allocated to job search activities. The main findings are: 1) the average unemployed worker in the U.S. devotes about 41 minutes to job search on weekdays, which is substantially more than his or her European counterpart; 2) workers who expect to be recalled by their previous employer search substantially less than the average unemployed worker; 3) across the 50 states and D.C., job search is inversely related to the generosity of unemployment benefits, with an elasticity between -1.6 and -2.2; 4) the predicted wage is a strong predictor of time devoted to job search, with an elasticity in excess of 2.5; 5) job search intensity for those eligible for Unemployment Insurance (UI) increases prior to benefit exhaustion; 6) time devoted to job search is fairly constant regardless of unemployment duration for those who are ineligible for UI. A nonparametric Monte Carlo technique suggests that the relationship between job search effort and the duration of unemployment for a cross-section of job seekers is only slightly biased by length-based sampling.



Here is another which presents both sides. However this particular article by Robert Barro is one that most mirrors my opinion. Nice to have an economist on my side.

[Doc]

I wanted to add:

Shitty jobs where you are treated like filth, feel like ass, and smell like grease at the end of the day. And while you're doing all that, you're trying to find a "real" job.

Do you look down at all people or just the lowly unskilled laborer who would demean themselves by working in the food service industry? Me, I learned to respect those hard working people that take those shitty jobs, who work in filth, feel like an ass and smell like grease. I respect them a hell of a lot more that the lazy jagoff that sits on his butt for 38 weeks collecting unemployment and does nothing to find a job or make him/her more hirable. I respect them because they are willing to take that job rather then accept the handout that the government is so willing to take from me and give to them.