Alabama Guys

[badrose]

Who's going to be the next US Senator from there?

[CitizenBBN]

I'm trying to get Darrell to run. Sure he's far to sensible, smart and honest to be a politician, but with his kids finally getting out of school he'll need to pick up 2-3 more jobs.

[badrose]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/0...howdown-242802

[CitizenBBN]

I called the Bama Sec of State, they say it's too late for Darrell to file in this election, but since they have politicians removed down there every few months or so, I'm hoping to find a window soon.

[MickintheHam]

Who's going to be the next US Senator from there?

There is a significant chance the seat goes blue, particularly if Judge Moore wins the Republican runoff next week. The Democrat is a straight up guy, a former Federal Prosecutor for the Northern District of Alabama. He is the guy who finally put thomas Blanton and Bobby Frank Cherry behind bars. Pretty popoular among moderates. A Clinton Democrat.

[MickintheHam]

Judge Moore has won the runoff. Expect a nip and tuck election.

[CitizenBBN]

Not a surprise IMO. Trump needs to understand people don't support him so much as they support draining the establishment swamp. If he becomes part of the problem he wont' have much of that support.

Moore seems to be seen as the non-establishment guy. That's a winning position right now in both parties.

[MickintheHam]

Not a surprise IMO. Trump needs to understand people don't support him so much as they support draining the establishment swamp. If he becomes part of the problem he wont' have much of that support.

Moore seems to be seen as the non-establishment guy. That's a winning position right now in both parties.

It may seem to be a winning position, but I'm not sure. Many Republicans will stay home rather than vote for either candidate. This will give a big edge to Jones. Dems and moderate Republicans who do vote will be solid for Jones. Also this will be a December election. I suspect voter turnout, especially Republicans will be low.

[CitizenBBN]

It may seem to be a winning position, but I'm not sure. Many Republicans will stay home rather than vote for either candidate. This will give a big edge to Jones. Dems and moderate Republicans who do vote will be solid for Jones. Also this will be a December election. I suspect voter turnout, especially Republicans will be low.

The whole reason Trump was behind strange was bc they think Moore will lose the general election and I think they're right. But just like sanders on the left both sides have a very strong anti establishment voting block that makes it hard for that nice middle of the road career guy to win.

[MickintheHam]

The whole reason Trump was behind strange was bc they think Moore will lose the general election and I think they're right. But just like sanders on the left both sides have a very strong anti establishment voting block that makes it hard for that nice middle of the road career guy to win.

You are correct you can't run from the middle, especially in Ala. The problem with Moore is many believe he will be an obstructionist to The Trump Agenda.

[Doc]

Id have a hard time voting for Moore

[MickintheHam]

Id have a hard time voting for Moore

I won't. This will be a net gain for the Dems.

[CitizenBBN]

Gotta not let the Dems take the senate. All the same problem we all had with Trump. There are still at least 2 SCOTUS seats in play. Kennedy is thinking of stepping down, and Ginsburg is just trying to hold out to get a liberal replacement at this point.

The Gorsuch pick looks good. If all we get from Trump and the GOP senate is good SCOTUS picks we're ahead, as much as I'd like to go up there and b-slap them.

[MickintheHam]

Gotta not let the Dems take the senate. All the same problem we all had with Trump. There are still at least 2 SCOTUS seats in play. Kennedy is thinking of stepping down, and Ginsburg is just trying to hold out to get a liberal replacement at this point.

The Gorsuch pick looks good. If all we get from Trump and the GOP senate is good SCOTUS picks we're ahead, as much as I'd like to go up there and b-slap them.

Supreme Court is only issue that will get Republicans to the polls.

[CitizenBBN]

Supreme Court is only issue that will get Republicans to the polls.

Imo it was the biggest factor in Trump winning.

[MickintheHam]

Imo it was the biggest factor in Trump winning.

Jones is all in on advertising. He is carving out the reasoned middle and painting Moore for the extremist that he has always been. I would call this race a dead heat.

[Doc]

Uh - oh

I'm going to call BS on this one... and before I'm accused of partisan politics, I said exactly the same concerning this about Kevin Spacey

Concerning Moore, who I'm not a fan of, its just too convenient that these allegations come out now. The democrats have shown that they have no issue lying in order to win. Harry Reid was especially proud when he did it to Mitt Romney and the party didn't object. Its a tactic that has worked in the past so why not use it again?

Concerning Spacey (and I wrote this in the comments to Fox), I find it hard to believe that an 18 year old would allow a man to "slip his hands into his pants" in a bar. Do that to me and somebody gets PUNCHED. And how does one slip one hands into somebody pants without allowing it? We are not talking on, we are IN. And he escaped when Spacey went to the bathroom? It makes no sense.

These sexual assault accusations make no sense and they are too easy to claim yet not prove.

[badrose]

Spacey has checked into a rehab and apologized after several have come forward with own versions, but I recall an article from years ago about him and under-aged boys near where he was shooting a movie IIRC. Hope it's not true but there's a lot of smoke.

[CitizenBBN]

My main questioning of the accusation re Moore is that this is a guy who has run more than once for major offices, and has had no shortage of general controversy. There have been multiple times something like this had every chance to blow up.

Doesn't mean I am convinced either way, but this Weinstein thing has led to a near frenzy of such accusations, and while I'm sure that's the tip of the iceberg of what all has happened in this country the last 20+ years to say the least, it doesn't mean each and every one of them is true. It's also statistically true that a number of them are likely false. There are always false claims out there too. it's knowing which are which that is so tough.

[KeithKSR]

I am skeptical, due to the timing.

[MickintheHam]

I am skeptical, due to the timing.

I am skeptical to some degree, but the guy is pretty sleazy. Moore is done. Jones will win.

[CitizenBBN]

I am skeptical to some degree, but the guy is pretty sleazy. Moore is done. Jones will win.

Mick, can the Bam GOP replace Moore if Moore steps aside or even involuntarily? I doubt Moore would quit if he were caught on video, but I wonder if he did or didn't if the GOP could put another candidate on the ballot.

[CitizenBBN]

I also agree he seems pretty sleazy. The timing is why I doubt it, but nothing people do in and of itself surprises me at all.

[MickintheHam]

Mick, can the Bam GOP replace Moore if Moore steps aside or even involuntarily? I doubt Moore would quit if he were caught on video, but I wonder if he did or didn't if the GOP could put another candidate on the ballot.

It would take a write in campaign of unimaginal proportions. This is still the reddest of states. Jones will have to be sensitive to his constituents views in order to be re-elected.

[Doc]

Mick, can the Bam GOP replace Moore if Moore steps aside or even involuntarily? I doubt Moore would quit if he were caught on video, but I wonder if he did or didn't if the GOP could put another candidate on the ballot.

No, its too late to change the ballot, even if he drops out. Shocking coincidence how the timing of that worked out, huh.... That accusations came just after the deadline. Who would have thought

[CitizenBBN]

No, its too late to change the ballot, even if he drops out. Shocking coincidence how the timing of that worked out, huh.... That accusations came just after the deadline. Who would have thought

Glad I was sitting down.

[Doc]

Glad I was sitting down.

Yeah, we won't say anything for 40 years despite him being in the news multiple times...but come out just after the deadline. Thats a shocking coincidence. Almost too coincidental

[PedroDaGr8]

Yeah, we won't say anything for 40 years despite him being in the news multiple times...but come out just after the deadline. Thats a shocking coincidence. Almost too coincidental

For the most part I agree with you, the timing is WAY too suspect. If the Weinstein thing had not happened, then I would fully agree with you but there is a a lot more to this:

Discussion on things in a more broad sense (feel free to skip this section):
Sexual assault victims, especially in that era, were treated like garbage. It was something to be hushed and shunned, you were a dirty and spoilt woman if you were assaulted, you were a shame on the family if it became none, you were asking for it, or you deserved it. Women were asked things like "What did you do to lead him on?", "What were you wearing?"etc. Justice was few and far between, even for aggressive crimes against children. This ignores anything related to the fact that sexual relations between adult men and teenage girls was not viewed nearly as creepy as it is today. Very often, the girls were accused of being complicit or even wanting it/consenting. They were labeled as whores and socially ostracized. Even today, sexual assault victims have a lot of problems in coming forward (both internally and externally) due to the difficulties of the process, the lack of support/belief, etc.. Seeing someone get actual justice for violence against them encourages others that they may seek justice as well.

Before I get to Roy Moore, as for Kevin Spacey, the rumors have been out there for YEARS! I remember when he visited, I believe Oxford, there were LOADS of reports of him acting inappropriately with the more attractive male acting students. This was around a decade ago, I remember reading about these reports when they happened. At that time, mostly online sources covered it and a few sources in the UK covered it but that is about it. Similarly, a year or two ago, I remember reading second hand reports of him at a VIP club in Thailand in the company of what appeared to be many teenage males around the ages of 12-16. While sex was not witnessed, he was seen receiving massages, having the boys sit in his lap, etc. Just as with Weinstein and Louis CK (his proclivity for exposing himself is not new), there has been a long running undercurrent of knowledge just below the surface for a long time now.

The difference is that societies views on this kind of behavior has changed markedly; recognizing it for the exploitation of power that it is and the lifelong effects that it can have on its victims. It has gone from being something which is bad (but happens) to something which is more an offense. An offense, not only when it happens to people you know, but to society as a whole and one with long standing consequences. I have seen the results of it in my field, seen what friend who are women go through when getting their PhDs under certain PIs. It is disgusting and for some of them, it wrecked their entire lives. Some dropped out due to having nowhere else to turn, leaving science all together. Others persevered but were made miserable, showing many PTSD symptoms from the behavior. I can think of one PI at a very notable research institution who is very famous for her vaccine work dealing with a certain kind of drug (which is a big problem right now). The direct stories I heard from the women members of his lab group were appalling. He would talk about sex trips to Asia to meet prostitutes; kep in mind many of the women he targeted were Asian and he would direct his discussion almost at them. He would lift up the girls lab coats "to see what they are wearing underneath", pull on their hair, comment on how they were looking (like "that outfit looks sexy" or "you should dress better"), etc. He would berate them about their performance in the lab and give them a general hard time if they resisted his behavior. One tried to complain to some of the higher ups at the research institute and was just told there wasn't enough evidence. I had heard a rumor they had already settled one lawsuit about him a decade before but that rumor was unsubstantiated. Keep in mind, most of these girls were in essence trapped in his lab. Changing PIs is a REALLY big deal at most universities. Drop your PI and almost none will pick you up instead and if they do, they are likely almost entirely unfunded and very low quality researches. So their options were to either endure his abuse or give up your life and entire career to this point. I saw how it affected some of the women, they had break downs, showed severe stress, etc. Some did quit, some fought back and were silenced, others endured with the dream of escaping soon.

Discussion on Roy Moore:
Now lets talk about Roy Moore. Moore is a sleazy SOB of the highest order, the kind of person who utilizes religion and politics not for good or to change things for the better but to further the needs/desires/power of Roy Moore. Did he assault her? Absolutely no clue, though I wouldn't put it past him. Her timing certainly stinks of it being a political attack, but even that isn't certain. The reailty is there are a variety of situations that could have happened. It certainly could be that she was emboldened by seeing Weinstein, Spacey, Louis CK and others get their comeuppance. Let's face it, showbiz news is common in the media these days, seeing the powerful in Hollywood get what they deserved could have a profound impact on her. She could have seen someone as big as Weinstein taken down and take comfort in that and have the faith to come forward. On the other hand, it could entirely a political hit with no assault ever happened at all. There is an important wrinkle to this though: even if the timing is political it doesn't mean that he didn't do it. While it would certainly put her testimony more in doubt, it does not make her testimony false. I can foresee a variety of situations all just as plausible (if not more so) than a fake story. Some require her to be complicit saving her revenge for a later date (IMHO an entirely valid behavior, though not entirely likely), others scenarios do not have her complicit but instead a pawn in a bigger game. For example, he might have done it and she said nothing because nobody would listen (or cared). When he did it, others (as was common at the time) told her to keep her mouth shut. As time went on, she learned to live with this assault and suppress it. She saw how his career grow and the power he held. He held/holds a lot of power locally in Alabama and that is something which attracts support and tends to depress dissent. As a judge, who tended to run with little-to-no well organized opposition, she had few obvious examples of strong opponents. His opponents were all likely much weaker than him and their loss was nigh guaranteed. On the flip side, running as a senator his opponents became more obvious and much more powerful than him (though so are many of his supporters). She might have approached an opponent as a "friendly ear" who could listen. They might have giver her the support and capital to go against him, then staged the release to sabotage his campaign. Still means he is a creepy horrible SOB who is unfit to hold the positions he has held, let alone the one he desired to hold, also means her release was political and used to damage him. In my opinion, the latter, or a variant thereof, seems just as likely (if not more so) to have occurred as her gaining the strength to come out on her own. Certainly more so than it being a pure political hit or her serving her revenge cold.


As an aside:
What the hell is up with the creepy supporters justifying his behavior? Saying things like "Mary was a teenager, so it is NBD" or that they had "consensual sex" and things like that?. The age of14 is not consensual in most states, let alone implying an assault is consensual, but even where it is allowed it doesn't make it any less creepy. Damn behavior gives me the chills. I get that they want to support "their guy" but seriously? If THAT is the only defense you can come up with, you are making the entire party look worse, and certainly not helping him. Better to either attack the timing of the release or to say things like "If he did this, then he deserves the punishment he will get, but I believe that his is politically motivated...blah blah blah" At least misdirect, spin, advocate without condoning his possible behavior. If you can't do that, then just shut the hell up.

[MickintheHam]

Well, the Senate race is Tuesday. Every poll indicates a tight race. Two weeks ago Jones pulled to a 10 point margin it is now back to being fairly even. It will all come down to voter turnout. Moore has a solid base that will turn out for him. Jones’ base is not as loyal. He has put together a coalition of traditional democrats and moderate Republicans. The vote hinges on how many conservative Republicans will turn out to vote for Jones.

I know in my own precinct which is suburban republican, I expect Jones to carry the vote. It’s been a very long time since any Democrat won the precinct. Moore will need heavy votes in the rural areas of South Alabama. I don’t believe it will be enough. There is also the question of how many republicans will go to the polls to vote for Jones who find they just can’t do it. It will be an election worth following.

[KeithKSR]

Well, the Senate race is Tuesday. Every poll indicates a tight race. Two weeks ago Jones pulled to a 10 point margin it is now back to being fairly even. It will all come down to voter turnout. Moore has a solid base that will turn out for him. Jones’ base is not as loyal. He has put together a coalition of traditional democrats and moderate Republicans. The vote hinges on how many conservative Republicans will turn out to vote for Jones.

I know in my own precinct which is suburban republican, I expect Jones to carry the vote. It’s been a very long time since any Democrat won the precinct. Moore will need heavy votes in the rural areas of South Alabama. I don’t believe it will be enough. There is also the question of how many republicans will go to the polls to vote for Jones who find they just can’t do it. It will be an election worth following.

Looks like a recipe for low voter turnout.