Irma

[CitizenBBN]

Yep. About as west as you can get & still be in Florida. Found it very odd.

Crazy is more like it. Even if the storm gets there, and there's no projection that it will, it'll be several days. Like you, I don't get it.

Maybe everyone just needed to hydrate after some hard drinking?

[Doc]

The cuba effect, now a catagory 4...but are saying it may strenghten. Winds at 155

[MickintheHam]

Bought 5 lifejackets and 2 umbrellas today

Are the umbrellas rated at 155 wind speed?

[Doc]

Now winds 150

[Doc]

Are the umbrellas rated at 155 wind speed?

[MickintheHam]

nuff said good luck!

[Darrell KSR]

Latest.

[Darrell KSR]

The cuba effect, now a catagory 4...but are saying it may strenghten. Winds at 155

Whatever it is when it hits, it will be a major hurricane with powerful winds. Still hoping for better geography for it. My nephew is in Tampa, and they are concerned too, of course. Bad stuff.

[Darrell KSR]

Crazy is more like it. Even if the storm gets there, and there's no projection that it will, it'll be several days. Like you, I don't get it.

Maybe everyone just needed to hydrate after some hard drinking?

There is a herd mentality that hits. A very lesser projection had Irma possibly going into the Gulf. If so, anything was possible for the Gulf Coast, and preparing 5-6 days early probably sounded good to a few. Then those few influenced others (I probably would have done the same thing if I were in the store and saw water supply dwindling, why not pick up a case or two that we would drink anyway).

Having lived in New Orleans and Miami during hurricane seasons, and even though tornado alley now, I see that a lot. Heck, you should see us when a snowflake hits.

*I should note that any of us who lived in Birmingham in March 1993 still have a healthy cynicism of "don't worry, be happy and play in the snow" projections. A couple of inches of snow projected turned into 18 and no power for days. As a guy who had 9-month old twins to keep warm and fed with one solo fireplace, any reasonable precautions I can take, even if fairly unlikely, I'll take.

Man, that was miserable.

[PedroDaGr8]

The cuba effect, now a catagory 4...but are saying it may strenghten. Winds at 155

Cuba was a small part, bigger part was it was undergoing another Eye Wall Replacement Cycle. Those tend to weaken the absolute strength of the storm, with the result of making the storm even more massive. This storm is ENORMOUS at this point! See below, for a comparison between Irma and Andrew (Irma is the monster on the bottom right, Andrew is the top left):



In this image, you can see the old eyewall has collapsed. The current EWRC is just about complete and a newer larger eyewall has emerged. With it being over warm waters and warmer waters to come, this is going to be not only a massive storm in size but a massive storm in absolute power. Storm surges up to 20ft are expected. Most models have it making landfall as an enormous Cat 5.

On a couple of side-notes:

• The new GOES-16 satellite that is covering the Caribbean is REALLY showing its value. The sheer amount of data that we get, image quality, etc. are hands over fists better than the old GOES satellite.
• The US gov needs to work on updating their storm prediction models and providing more computing power to handle it. The GFS models, which used to be the best, are really showing their age, especially at any forecast longer than 48h. For the past 4-5 yrs, they are getting trounced by the Euro, UKMET, etc. They are in danger of falling out of the Top 5 if they don't develop a new model system soon. A lot of work and money goes into developing a new model system, something a lot of the rest of the world is doing and for good reason. The US has not and it shows. The US Military has already stopped using the US Governments weather data, at a huge cost, because Europe does a better job at forecasting (again improving models costs a lot of money and computing power). They used to be the best in the world, but budget cuts have damaged them severely.
• This storm is crazy and Jose, who just became a Cat 4, is just behind it. This could be a humanitarian nightmare, with a Cat 4 or Cat 5 Jose hitting areas trounced by Irma. Even if Jose is no Irma, those areas are not capable of handling another one of this magnitude. This will be interesting to watch (not in a good way).

[dan_bgblue]

Jmho, but Jose never hits land in the continental US. It will follow the path that everyone hoped Irma would take, which is to make a turn north and heading for far eastern Canada or possibly hopefully even further east of that.

[Doc]

Im all locked in. Only the dront door and sat dish to coms down. Will do tomorrow. Good news for me is its going well west of me. Thats usually bad news as that puts me to the east of the storm which is the strong and wet side but the other option was it sfaying over open water. I prefer it hitting me after being land affected for a few hundred miles. Bad news is suncat is going to get hammered. Ill still get MAJOR effects but more cat 3ish

[PedroDaGr8]

Jmho, but Jose never hits land in the continental US. It will follow the path that everyone hoped Irma would take, which is to make a turn north and heading for far eastern Canada or possibly hopefully even further east of that.

Agreed, Irma has disturbed the waters too much and sapped too much energy out of the area for it to be conducive to Jose long term. That being said, there is a good chance that Jose will hit the initial islands that Irma hit in the Carribean. That is what I meant by a humanitarian nightmare, maybe not for Americans but for those people, people on a relatively impoverished island devastated by a Cat 5 hurricane, hit again with a Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane, that's nightmare fuel.

[dan_bgblue]

I did not think of your comment that way. Unfortunately I was very USA centric in my thoughts and comment.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/09/08...-strength.html

[Catonahottinroof]

Ground zero looks to be Marathon, then the Glades to the North.

[CitizenBBN]

This thing is looking like the worst case scenario. Coming right at the keys dead center, up to a Cat 5 again as it leaves Cuba. Going to go straight up Florida and hit the whole state from coast to coast.

Unreal.

[CitizenBBN]

Watching Fox, and they're playing video of people plywooding up buildings while doing an interview. It's all footage on Duval Street. Sloppy Joes, what used to be the Gecko next door, then Willie T's and the Walgreens in the old movie theater. that's straight up Duval on the north side.

Not sure if anyone is interested, but I'm going to follow some of the webcams a long as they broadcast. Some links:

About middle of Duval street, facing Bogart's:
http://wickerguesthouse.com/webcam/

This is down just off Mallory Square, faces Red Fish Blue Fish, and the back entrance to Hog's Breath. This is the far west of Duval and Old Town:
http://www.keywestharborwebcam.com/

This is Sloppy Joe's outside, just up from the one I just posted:
http://www.liveduvalstreet.com/

This is the opposite end of the island, Atlantic side, Southernmost Point:
http://southernmostpointwebcam.com/

Mallory Square, the Old Town most western point:
http://www.oceankey.com/key-west-webcam.aspx

[CitizenBBN]

I heard a story about the Hemmingway folks trying to deal with protecting the cats (famous for having mostly 6 toes), but Key West is also home to gypsy chickens that roam free on the island. One local is trying to protect them too:

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nati...171996022.html



Yes, those are chickens wrapped in newspaper. How he got them I don't know, they're not afraid of people but they aren't domesticated at all.

[MickintheHam]

This thing, as I have continued to be concerned, is continuing to move west. It is now slated to come ashore in SW Florida. A few more miles to the west it comes through Tampa or worse yet, it stays in the Gulf. Right now it appears it will go right up the coast and maintain Cat 3 or 4 status all the way. The panhandle and Alabama could come into play. I remember Opal and don't need another.

[Doc]

The westwart trend is a blessing for me. Now it looks as though I will be spared the majority of the storm's effects. Habe had some rain bands this morning and are predicting only tropical strom force winds today

[Doc]

The Cuba effect has knocked it down to winds of 130 which is a huge blessing. Will kick up a bit between Cuba and FL but at least it has to build again. Of course 130 is major but its markedly better than 185.

[suncat05]

Okay, I am currently in the Glades County Emergency Operations Center. And yes, I have been as busy as a one armed painter.
Latest I have heard has Irma going over Naples & Ft. Myers.
I am right on the lower southwest side of Lake Okeechobee in Moore Haven. We're being told we're going to catch the backside of this storm, and that is NOT good.
We have all kinds of help either here or on the way. FEMA, the FL Army National Guard, the Red Cross, FHP, and more coming. We even had a Fire Dept. From Michigan call yesterday offering personnel to help.
I live right on the Lake. My wife, son, & my dogs all went to stay with friends in Avon Park, which is about an hour north of us on US 27. My daughter is in Gainesville with friends.
I am a little more optimistic than some. I believe once it hits real solid land that it will start to dissipate, even though it will keep moving northward.
We'll be okay. Anything we have can be replaced. I just want my family & dogs to be safe. We can start over if need be.
This is where faith in God our Heavenly Father comes into play. I believe that He will guide us through this. And in another note, any prayers you guys offer up for are greatly appreciated.

[suncat05]

Oh, yeah, did I mention that this storm is going to be a real frog strangler? 🐸

[Catfan73]

Stay safe Suncat, as much as you can under the circumstances. I imagine all emergency personnel will hunker down during the worst of it? Sending prayers your way and to everyone affected. I have family in Lehigh Acres, Bradenton, St. Pete, Winter Garden, and Mexico Beach. All have gone north or otherwise taken shelter. Prayers to all.

[suncat05]

Lehigh Acres is just west outside of Ft. Myers. Off of State Road 80.

[Catfan73]

Been there once. A couple of my wife's aunts live there, right next door to each other. They've gone to stay with family; hopefully they'll have something to come home to.

[suncat05]

10 personnel from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers checked in about a half hour ago.

[Darrell KSR]

@NWSKeyWest: Hurricane #Irma will strengthen when it moves away from Cuba. This powerful hurricane is expected to make landfall in the Lower #FLKeys.

[blueboss]

10 personnel from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers checked in about a half hour ago.

Good to hear you've got your family moved out of the bullseye. Sounds like you're also getting some backup into your area as well. Hunker down and when you get out in the aftermath stay safe and God bless.


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[dan_bgblue]

10 personnel from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers checked in about a half hour ago.

If worse comes to worst, each of them can stick a finger in the dike.