Returning production rankings--football

[Catfan73]

https://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...egon-tcu-texas

This is an interesting article from way back in January. They have UK ranked 7th overall in terms of returning production, but if one looks a little closer it says we should improve by 5.2 points per game net (3.1 ppg more on offense and give up 2.1 ppg fewer on defense). The numbers can be skewed a bit obviously for various reasons but this is one attempt at quantifying returning starters that actually makes a little bit of sense imo. UK and opponents' projected point improvements over last season with our net vs. that opponent in parenthesis:

Kentucky +5.2
S. Carolina +4.6 (+0.6)
Georgia +6.0 (<0.8>)
Vandy +4.0 (+1.2)
E. Michigan +4.1 (+1.1)
Missouri +1.3 (+3.9)
Louisville +2.8 (+2.4)
Florida +0.7 (+4.5)
Miss. State +1.0 (+4.2)
Southern Miss <0.2> (+5.4)
Tennessee <3.4> (+8.6)
Ole Miss <4.0> (+9.2)

[Darrell KSR]

https://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...egon-tcu-texas

This is an interesting article from way back in January. They have UK ranked 7th overall in terms of returning production, but if one looks a little closer it says we should improve by 5.2 points per game net (3.1 ppg more on offense and give up 2.1 ppg fewer on defense). The numbers can be skewed a bit obviously for various reasons but this is one attempt at quantifying returning starters that actually makes a little bit of sense imo. UK and opponents' projected point improvements over last season with our net vs. that opponent in parenthesis:

Kentucky +5.2
S. Carolina +4.6 (+0.6)
Georgia +6.0 (<0.8>)
Vandy +4.0 (+1.2)
E. Michigan +4.1 (+1.1)
Missouri +1.3 (+3.9)
Louisville +2.8 (+2.4)
Florida +0.7 (+4.5)
Miss. State +1.0 (+4.2)
Southern Miss <0.2> (+5.4)
Tennessee <3.4> (+8.6)
Ole Miss <4.0> (+9.2)

That's a great find. Very interesting to try to quantify with numbers like that. Just for the fun of it...applied to the schedule/results last year, AND, changing home/away figures 6 points (adding 3 points and taking away 3 points if the game was away last year/home this year, and vice-versa), we find:

@ Southern Miss. Last year we lost by 9. This year we will lose by 10. (-9 +5 -6)
vs Eastern Kentucky -- Did not play last year
@ South Carolina. Last year we won by 7. This year we will win by 2. (+7 +1 -6)
vs Florida -- Last year we lost by 38. This year we will lose by 27. (-38 +5-rounded +6)
vs Eastern Michigan -- Did not play last year
vs Missouri -- Last year we won by 14. This year we will win by 24 (+14 +4 +6)
@ Miss. State -- Last year we won by 2. This year we will go to overtime with them and win by a point (I'm improvising). (+2 +4.2 -6)
vs Tennessee -- Last year we lost by 13. This year we will win by 2 (-13 +9 +6)
vs Ole Miss -- Did not play last year
@Vanderbilt -- Last year we won by 7. This year we will win by 2 (+7 +1 -6)
@ Georgia -- Last year we lost by 3. This year we will lose by 10 (-3 -1 -6)
vs Louisville -- Last year we won by 3. This year we will win by 11 (+3 +2 +6)

Games that stayed the same: 8
Games that changed for the better: 1 (Tennessee)
Games that are much closer (of the 9 above): Vanderbilt should be nip and tuck, but a win; Tennessee shows up as a safety-sized narrow win; Miss. State is a dead-heat with a 0.2 point slight margin to UK--could be erased by a bigger than 3-point home field advantage; and South Carolina is also a safety-sizer.

So while it looks good on paper to say Kentucky has improved 5 points, the truth is, that I'd look at this and say, "gee, there are 9 games that we played against teams last year. Of those 9 games, although the math would indicate we'd be one game better than last year, the truth is, 4 of those 9 games--all counted as "wins"--are all less than a field goal victories, and more accurately called toss-ups. Win 2 and lose 2 and the stat guys would say that's about right. And that would indicate that we'd be one game WORSE than last year."

Math and stats are fun. Doesn't mean anything; I'm not suggesting we're going to be one game worse than last year at all. But due to some tremendous leadership, clutch plays, ground control offense and opportune-enough defense last year, we went 4-1 in games decided by one score or less last year. That's to our credit. But how much of that is "luck" or good fortune?

If the luck or good fortune turns, will we be disappointed this year with a result equal to or worse than last year?

It's possible. I don't expect it necessarily, but it is possible.

[MickintheHam]

The author's premise is a step in the right direction. I am not sure of the percentages he is using. I posted something last summer that focused on production returned, but it was more focused on the specific returnees and their contributions the previous season. Studies such as these are a step in the right direction, they just need more refinement. I whole heartedly agree with him the "returning starters" numbers are way too simplistic and very one dimensional. It is interesting how much the author discounts returning offensive linemen. I'll be watching that one.

[Terry Blue]

Well, I didn,t use all his convoluted stats last year and predicted 7 and 5. This year, unless we have multiple major injuries to key players I,ll be going with 8 and 4

[Catfan73]

USM +/- 0
UF -3
NM St. -1
USC -2
Alabama -1
Vandy -1
Miss. St. -1
Missouri -2
Georgia +1
Tennessee +1
APSU +1
Louisville +2

Turnovers. The great unknown, we got a whole lot better at it toward the end of the season. Toward the bottom of that article it says that half of the teams with over 80% of their production returning actually improved by over 7 points. If we can continue the positive trend on turnovers and combine it with a built-in 7 point turnaround....

[Terry Blue]

Piece of cake

[Catfan73]

"....applied to the schedule/results last year, AND, changing home/away figures 6 points (adding 3 points and taking away 3 points if the game was away last year/home this year, and vice-versa)"

Those are standard and I usually give/take 3 points for non-conference games. If they're SEC games however I ding UK from 0-3 points for home games, and from 0-10 points for away games, depending on the opponent. You'd be surprised by how well it works in keeping power ratings straight week after week. The number I use whenever UK plays Vandy for example is 0 points, regardless of site, as neither has much of a home field advantage against the other.