Looks like HRC has rebuilt her 270 firewall, after seeing the results from early voting in Nevada. CNN confirming the results too.
Looks like HRC has rebuilt her 270 firewall, after seeing the results from early voting in Nevada. CNN confirming the results too.
Early vote data is based on party registration. There's no way to know yet whether Democrats necessarily voted for Clinton or Republicans necessarily voted for Trump.Originally Posted by StuBleedsBlue2
You are correct, but there's zero evidence out there that there's any net gain on either candidate converting a greater share of registered opposition. If anything, most polling shows that Hillary is a beneficiary of Republicans supporting her vs Dems supporting Trump.
As I pointed out earlier, there's some exit polling in Florida that says that >20% of registered Republicans are voting for HRC in Florida. I don't believe in single data points, but at least 1 data point is better than none. If Nevada Republicans are +1 for HRC, then that state is over for Trump.
Polls are pretty clearly trending toward HRC. As of today IBD 4-way and the LA Times poll are the only ones favoring Trump. Trump supporters have to hope virtually all are wrong or that Trump can somehow lose the popular vote and thread the Electoral College needle.
Last edited by KSRBEvans; 11-06-2016 at 08:40 AM.
U really think players are going to duke without being paid over Kentucky?--Gilbert Arenas, 9/12/19
Hillary by electoral landslide called by ten Eastern.
That may be, but Nate Silver indicates they are now well within the margin of error.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/...b0d9ce6fbc6f7f
Some good analysis on early voting...
Assuming recent history holds, somewhere between 120 million and 130 million people will vote in this election. And roughly one-third of them—39,697,817, to be exact—have already cast their ballots. The analysts at TargetSmart have analyzed the available data (including interviews with those who have already voted), and they have some happy news for Hillary Clinton. Quite a bit of it in fact. Specifically:
Clinton appears to be leading Donald Trump among early voters by about 9 points, or roughly 4 million votes. For Trump to make up that difference, he would need 55% of the remaining votes.
55.9% of the voters so far are women. If women voters outnumber men by 10 points, that is ghastly news for Trump, and would make the "55% to catch up" all but impossible.
Trump has been counting on "low propensity" voters—those who don't turn out very often—to carry him to victory. While the number of low propensity voters is up this year, they are breaking for Clinton and not Trump, by about 7 points
The early voters are 80% white; the general population is about 63% white. If 30 million white voters have already cast their ballots (along with 10 million non-whites), that leaves about 50 million white voters to go, along with 35 million non-white voters. Supposing Hillary Clinton took 40% of the remaining white vote and 80% of the remaining non-white vote on Election Day (both very reasonable estimates), she would collect approximately 48 million of the remaining 85 million votes to Trump's 37 million. To even things out, and to possibly make up the existing 4 million gap, Trump would have to perform far, far better than expected among minority voters, or would have to take something like 85% of the remaining white votes. Either of those is a tall order.
I remain confident Hillary will win, but it's the most severe indictment of what has happened to this nation that I can imagine.
Electing a person who has been grossly negligent with America's secrets and is clearly as corrupt as anyone in US history from Tammany Hall to Al Capone's Chicago is IMO the ultimate indictment of the failure of both the system and our morality.
Trump is a stooge, a misogynistic jerk, but the Left, if unable to vote for him, should be outside DNC headquarters with torches and pitchforks demanding they remove her and put up someone who isn't a career criminal.
Susan Sarandon at least has some sense. She's voting for the Green party candidate and is calling out the DNC as being too corrupt to support.
Now I have no doubts the GOP has their corruptions as well, this isn't party versus party but entrenched elites versus the People of America. Any of them we find we need to throw in jail too, but since we just uncovered a massive nest of them with Team Clinton let's start there.
She'll win, but I pray to God we haven't been abandoned by Providence and the FBI or some other entity does enough to bring down this entity that clearly is nothing more than political racketeering and gross negligence regarding US security.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
It's funny, but I was going to compliment Sarandon myself and decided I wouldn't mention it, because I still don't get why Hollywood actors should sway us at all. As you know, though, I probably agree with her position more than not here.
We're in dire straits.
Stu, she'll win, but being happy about that is just sad. That people are so entrenched with their "team" like it was some meaningless football game, willing to overlook any excess no matter how egregious in order to "win", is pretty much the end of the road.
When Nixon faced similar problems, and in fact the charges against him were far less severe, the GOP leadership went to him and told him to step down and not fight in some pathetic display of twisting facts and undermining the ethical integrity of the nation just to retain power.
Now, just a few decades later, we are apparently willing to tolerate that sort of behavior in order to advance an agenda at all costs, even though there is also a mountain of evidence that the supposed leader of this agenda doesn't give a damn about it (see her deep financial ties to the very institutions she claims to be fighting against among others).
She'll win. It's just pathetic that she will and pathetic that anyone would vote for her. It's nearly as pathetic that Trump is a candidate and that he will get votes, but in the end it's less pathetic to elect an asshole than a criminal.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
Yep, she is just another person, but at least she's shown actual integrity.
My hope is that after Hillary wins enough hard evidence is found by the FBI that even the depths of Clinton's influence isn't enough to suppress it, and she and all of this mess are destroyed, preferably in the grandest, most embarrassing way possible so as to serve as a deterrent for years to come.
At this point it's the only hope, that somehow justice prevails despite the most massive political corruption in US history.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
I hope so. I do think that is the best reasonable outcome for the United States now, and for the future. She can't be good for the country.
I'm not thrilled with a HRC term, I'm just going be ecstatic that Trump won't be our President. I'm no fan of Hillary at all, but what Trump has done over the course of his life and what he has promised to do is so reckless and completely void of any intelligence to make reasonable decisions, he is simply the worst candidate in the history of our nation.
Personally, I think Hillary has done enough to disqualify her from being a President, but it's a binomial choice. I rarely vote for Republicans, but I would definitely considered several of the GOP candidates over Hillary. I would take 16 more years of GWB over 1 day of Trump.
I'm totally fine with a divided government. It's not optimal and really does obstruct from being able to really jump start the economy and find solutions to real problems, but I'm comfortable with organic growth without excessive intrusive government intervention, for the reasonable future. I'm not comfortable at all with a lunatic threatening to basically start over again with policies that only benefit the most exclusive minority, while also threatening to dissolve every relationship that we have within the world today.
I have more confidence in disaster of a Trump Presidency than a success of a Clinton Presidency, so my happiness will be reflected more in the fact of who didn't win vs who does win.
It IS much worse to elect an asshole criminal(and you have conveniently left out the criminal descriptive element of Trump, for which he's an self-admitted one and is currently facing charges on other counts) than it is a criminal, so that's why I must support HRC.
Let's just be honest. No matter the results on Tuesday, the American people will lose, and that's our own fault. I find it embarassing that we have to make a choice that we have, but we have to live with those consequences and only have ourselves to blame.
Last edited by StuBleedsBlue2; 11-06-2016 at 12:47 PM.
I voted yesterday here in Ohio and it took an hour to get through the line...it was unreal how many people were there. I would estimate that about 90% were Trump voters. I could tell because they all had Republican ballot cards. I only seen a hand full of people with Democrat ballots.
On Saturday I went up to Columbus which is one of the most Liberal areas in America and only seen 1 Killary sign. I was shocked.
Yeah, based off information that we have available to us, I see no way that Trump loses Ohio.
I don't think it's going to spread to the rest of the rust belt states that Trump needs to take away from Democrats. 4-8 point leads before the Comey news yesterday should be enough. There was some concern among Democrats that the Transit strike in Philly would really have a suppresing result on turnout, but that got resolved last night, so high turnout in those heavily Democratic leaning areas, and more importantly, the Philly suburb vote women vote, that typically favors Republicans, are supporting Hillary in greater numbers.
No one with any sense of decency would vote for Hillary.
Real Fan since 1958
Fixed it for you
seeya
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I'm just one stomach flu away from my goal weight.
There are the totally stupid ones who rely on the gov tit for everything who will vote democrat period. And then there is the ultra left who will vote democrat period who don't care about the country and we already know they have no decency.
And then there are those who think they are smarter than the rest, think republicans are a bunch of bumbling idiots, the elite as they think of themselves who will tell you how smart they are who in reality are just plain stupid and will vote for her. I have no use for those in that group whether they are UK fans, or St Louis Cardinal fans, imo they are pure dipsh.ts
Because it is that sense of decency and love of country that whatever must be done to keep Trump out of the WH is necessary. I think this confession from a life-long GOP member says it all.
I ask myself how can anyone support someone who disrespects so many good people of our nation by constantly insulting them without any sense of remorse or regret while expressing a deranged belief that he, and only he, can fix our problems and knows more about everything than everybody and that happens to be a self-described sexual predator. That acts and behaves more like a dictator than a President.
I'm not going to go as far as calling that person void of decency, but they definitely have a backwards vision of a leader when given a binomial choice.
Early voting numbers favored Trump in Colorado, North Carolina and Florida.
http://drudgereport.com/flashfl.htm
FLORIDA SHOCK: TRUMP OUTPERFORMS ROMNEY BY 130,000 IN EARLY VOTING!
Mon Nov 07 2016 12:03:12 ET
**World Exclusive**
Data obtained by the DRUDGE REPORT shows presidential underdog Donald Trump outperforming Republican 2012 election results in Florida.
Mitt Romney went into Election Day down 161,000 in absentee ballots and early voting. He ended up losing the state by 74,000.
This time, in a dramatic surprise twist, Trump is only down 32,500! And Republicans tend to outvote Democrats on Election Day in Florida.
EDITOR'S NOTE: A late poll showed Trump nearing 50% in the sunshine state.
Developing...
http://drudgereport.com/flashnc.htm
NORTH CAROLINA: TRUMP +142,000 OVER ROMNEY EARLY VOTING
Mon Nov 07 2016 13:01:41 ET
**World Exclusive**
Another dramatic turn of events is being reported out of North Carolina this afternoon: Donald Trump has jumped past all expectations in early voting!
In 2012, Romney hit Election Day down 447,000 votes, based on early ballots. He went on to win the state by 97,000 votes.
Now, the DRUDGE REPORT can reveal, Trump opens Election Day down 305,000!
EDITOR'S NOTE: A poll going into this week had Trump nearing 50% in the Old North state.
Developing...
http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/07...-election-day/
7,360 more Republicans than Democrats voted early in Colorado.
Things will get far worse before they get better. Guessing on a big fall in the markets. Active military adventures from Russia. Confiscatory taxes or insurance requirements on guns. More oppression of speech on campus and elsewhere.
Are you talking about Trump or Team Clinton?
Sexual predator? Yep, they've got that covered. Trump talks dirty and has accusers, Bill Clinton has as many accusers (who Hillary has pilloried, pardon the rhyme), and on top of it violated EEOC rules with an affair and then obstructed justice to cover it up.
Disrespects so many good people? Deplorables ring a bell? How about Obama on us clinging to our guns and religion? No politician has a corner on that one.
No sense of remorse or regret? There's a picture of HRC in the dictionary under the word unapologetic. Even her staff talks about a pathological aversion to it.
Knows more about everything than anyone else? That kinda sums up the Leftist mantra doesn't it? A cadre of elites like the Clintons completely convinced that they know what is best for everyone.
Acts like a dictator? You mean someone promising to use executive action to go after the 2nd Amendment despite the fact that she lacks the legislative votes to actually change existing laws? Someone who puts in a private unsecure email server and never asks for permission and otherwise spends her entire tenure as a civil servant ignoring the laws she tells everyone else to follow (even to the point of making a video for SoS employees admonishing them to be careful with secure information?)?
Yeah, I'm very confused on who we are discussing now.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
I'm coming to the view you are right, and that it is a necessary evil.
just a little egregiousness wasnt' enough to cause the Colonies to rise up. It took a certain level of egregious reassertion of England's power to tax and rule before people got good and fed up enough to do something about it.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
Of course you are.
Posted by my brother on Facebook this evening:
U really think players are going to duke without being paid over Kentucky?--Gilbert Arenas, 9/12/19
lol B, that much is for sure.
I'm figuring Hillary will win, but I'm hoping for some actual justice to work and have her under indictment before she takes office, leaving someone else to actually become President. Nearly anyone else in fact.
Won't happen that way, this country is on a very different and very bad path, but would be nice.
At this point I want Trump to win for absolutely no other reason than to watch people's heads explode. It's the far more entertaining choice.
People keep asking if I'm back and I haven't really had an answer. But now, yeah, I'm thinkin' I'm back.
You may want to take a deeper look into those numbers in Colorado and Florida. I'll give you that N Carolina early voting favors Trump, but that's what massive voting suppression will do. We'll see if the turnout happens tomorrow there.
A little review of what's happening in Colorado. Republicans are actually winning less than they were in 2012, where they held a 2% advantage in early votin,g. Obama went on to coast to victory. In 2016, voters over 65 represent 28% of the electorate, where they only represent 16% of registered voters. In 2012, there was a 7% point swing to Obama on election day. I suspect it's going to be something close to that tomorrow.
In Florida, all you have to see is that Latino voting is up 86% and AA voting is up 9%. So much for the Obama coalition not turning out.
You can't compare 2012 and 2016 for Colorado. This is their first mail ballot presidential election.
All Florida early voting numbers are up, as nearly half the eligible voters have cast ballots already. You have to compare the percentages, and not the raw numbers. In 2012 the Dems were up 3% on the GOP. The difference is less than half of that this time around, with the Dems up 1.36%. Obama defeated Romney by 0.88%, which means Romney made big gains on Election Day.
The Democrats hold a lead going into Election Day, but their lead is significantly smaller than it was four years ago. In 2012, Democrats scored 43 percent of the early vote in Florida, and Republicans scored 40 percent. In the end, Barack Obama won Florida, but it was a tight race, with the president defeating Mitt Romney by a margin of just 0.88 percentage points. Democratic turnout tends to be high in early voting, and Republican turnout tends to be high on Election Day. So the fact that the Democrats don’t have as large a lead as they did four years ago may spell trouble for Hillary Clinton.
Independents?
This year, about 1.2 million of the ballots cast came from those not affiliated with any of the two major parties. This translates into 19.2 percent of the early vote. It’s unclear who these voters selected, but many polls have suggested that they tend to gravitate towards Donald Trump. In a recent CBS News poll, independent voters favored Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton, 47 percent to 34 percent, and another Remington Research survey showed Trump winning among unaffiliated voters 49 percent to 36 percent.
http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/florid...ic-republican/
If Trump gets the polled +13% of the unaffiliated voters he would pick up 156,000 more of those votes than Hillary.
There's exit polling that shows 26% of registered Republicans are voting for HRC. Now, I don't totally buy that, but I do think there's a heavier skew in Florida relative to the rest of the nation in Republicans voting for HRC, just from Latinos, that have typically voted Republican.
I'm not going out on a limb and predicting a victory for either candidate in Florida, but a couple of things are clear. One, the Hillary coalition is showing up to the polls. Two, Latino enthusiam in through the roof. Those are two things that bode extremely well for Clinton.
Also, you can absolutely compare 2012 with 2016 in Colorado. The demographics seem to be breaking as expected, it's just more people have voted in 2016, and of those early voters, they tend to lean Republican. I'm not saying that there's going to be a 7 pt swing on election day, but it does only take less than a percent to swing it, and that's assuming that the vote against party registration gap that we see nationally doesn't wipe out the 7,000 registered votes favoring the Republicans.
Colorado, like Nevada, is locked for Hillary.
I wouldn't call Nevada a lock. RCP has Trump up by less than a point, and that makes it a tossup. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nson-6004.html
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