Sabato's Crystal Ball: Electoral Map

[StuBleedsBlue2]

Do you understand the meaning of "recent?" RCP Poll at that time went back a few weeks.

I understand the definition of recent. I'm not sure you understand the meaning of most.

Most recent polls are NOT showing the race is within the MofE. A couple are, like LA Times(which has a very unique methodology) and Rasmussen(which always skews Republican, but is actually trending TOWARDS Clinton recently, and last poll is outside of MofE). The other thing with these two polls is that they're ALWAYS within the MofE.

Again, I point to the state polling. Clinton has a consistent, minimum 6-8% point lead(all well beyond any MofE) in states now totalling 279 electoral votes. The 5 battleground: Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Iowa and North Carolina, Clinton is leading in most of those polls too, but within the MofE. However, with poll of polls, especially with Nate Silver that MofE greatly decreases.

Most recent polling still indicates a strong(but definitely off the highs of the post convention bounce) lead for Clinton.

[dan_bgblue]

Jerry Meyers will make his crystal ball prediction on November 9th.

[KeithKSR]

I understand the definition of recent. I'm not sure you understand the meaning of most.

Most recent polls are NOT showing the race is within the MofE. A couple are, like LA Times(which has a very unique methodology) and Rasmussen(which always skews Republican, but is actually trending TOWARDS Clinton recently, and last poll is outside of MofE). The other thing with these two polls is that they're ALWAYS within the MofE.

Again, I point to the state polling. Clinton has a consistent, minimum 6-8% point lead(all well beyond any MofE) in states now totalling 279 electoral votes. The 5 battleground: Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Iowa and North Carolina, Clinton is leading in most of those polls too, but within the MofE. However, with poll of polls, especially with Nate Silver that MofE greatly decreases.

Most recent polling still indicates a strong(but definitely off the highs of the post convention bounce) lead for Clinton.

The RCP average, which includes the Quinnipiac outlier poll, was at about 5 points yesterday. When the margin of error is about 3.5 that puts it in a veritable dead heat. Many of these polls still use 2008 and 2009 turnout models, and the Dems won't turn out like they did in 2008 and 2012. Primary data indicated Dem registrations are down, GOP up.

[KSRBEvans]

The author says it's not a prediction, but an interesting discussion of how Trump could pull a Bush 43 (lose the popular vote but win the electoral college). Money section:

Using a prototype of a demographic election calculator that FiveThirtyEight will be unveiling in the next few weeks, I decided to simulate a few election scenarios. Starting with 2012 results as a baseline and adjusting for demographic changes over the past four years, I tested what the map would look like if African-American turnout dipped, GOP support among college-educated whites and Latinos slightly declined, and noncollege whites rallied to Trump in large numbers.

More specifically, here are the conditions I used to set up a fairly plausible scenario that would scare the heck out of Democrats:
1.Latino turnout rises from 48 percent in 2012 to 54 percent, and their support for Democrats increases from 71 percent to 74 percent.
2.Asian/other turnout rises from 49 percent in 2012 to 54 percent, and their support for Democrats increases from 69 percent to 74 percent.
3.African-Americans continue to give Democrats 93 percent of the vote, but their turnout falls from 66 percent to 60 percent.
4.Among college-educated whites, turnout remains steady at 78 percent and Republicans’ share falls from 56 percent to 47 percent.
5.Among whites without a college degree, turnout surges from 55 percent to 66 percent and Republicans’ share rises from 62 percent to 67 percent.

The result? Clinton would carry the popular vote by 1.5 percentage points. However, Trump would win the Electoral College with 280 votes by holding all 24 Romney states and flipping Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District from blue to red. And the real disparity between the electoral and popular votes could be larger, because this model doesn’t even factor in Trump’s Mormon problem.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-popular-vote/

[KSRBEvans]

BTW, more fun with 269-269:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/0b1oR

Basically this is the 2012 map with Trump flipping Florida (currently narrowly ahead), Ohio (currently narrowly ahead), Iowa (currently up 4), Colorado and getting 1 of the Maine congressional districts.

Tough road for Trump (he's down about 5 in Colorado right now) but not impossible.

[MickintheHam]

BTW, more fun with 269-269:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/0b1oR

Basically this is the 2012 map with Trump flipping Florida (currently narrowly ahead), Ohio (currently narrowly ahead), Iowa (currently up 4), Colorado and getting 1 of the Maine congressional districts.

Tough road for Trump (he's down about 5 in Colorado right now) but not impossible.

The debates will change it all. There are way too many people that are not solid with their preference. Buckle you seat belt. Bumpy road ahead.

[KeithKSR]

The debates will change it all. There are way too many people that are not solid with their preference. Buckle you seat belt. Bumpy road ahead.

Gotta wonder how Hillary will do without someone feeding her answers. There is a reason she has abstained from pressers.

[Darrell KSR]

Gotta wonder how Hillary will do without someone feeding her answers. There is a reason she has abstained from pressers.

Bet you a Coca-Cola she'll have some device that will be deep inside her ear during it.

[badrose]

Bet you a Coca-Cola she'll have some device that will be deep inside her ear during it.

Yeah, I won't put anything past her.

[Doc]

That would be cheating and unethical. Hillary would never do anything like...... never mind

[MickintheHam]

A new Sabato Crystal Ball reading is coming out today or tomorrow. Haven't seen it yet.

[badrose]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

[Catonahottinroof]

Funny how Sabato's poll has went from a Hillary slam dunk, to The Donald now having a chance.

[KSRBEvans]

So with a poll showing a 3-way statistical tie between Trump, Clinton and Even McMullin in Utah, how about another way this ends up in the House?



http://www.270towin.com/maps/Gw39Y

Trump flips 2012 Obama states Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and Colorado (most likely to least, IMHO), and McMullin wins Utah, denying anyone 270 votes and throwing it to the House.

[dan_bgblue]

If he can flip the 5 you mention, then it is my guess that either Michigan or Pennsylvania flips as well.

[CitizenBBN]

IIRC the House can pick anyone they want can't they?

I'd love to see that play out, or any scenario where someone other than these two win the office. So would about everyone else, which makes you wonder just how bad a system we've put in place.

[KSRBEvans]

If he can flip the 5 you mention, then it is my guess that either Michigan or Pennsylvania flips as well.

Yeah, it's asking a lot to flip those 5. If it happens, like you said, it means other purple states like Michigan and Pennsylvania will be in play.

I think it's more likely he flips none or maybe 1 of them (Iowa's most likely IMHO), but another 2012 red state or 2, like North Carolina or even Arizona, flips blue. I saw a story today where Hillary is making a new ad buy in Arizona and Michelle Obama will campaign there. Maybe she's throwing $ down a hole, like late in the 2000 election when W thought he could win Pennsylvania and spent a lot of $ there. But then again maybe they see something happening there & they're taking a shot.

[KSRBEvans]

IIRC the House can pick anyone they want can't they?

I'd love to see that play out, or any scenario where someone other than these two win the office. So would about everyone else, which makes you wonder just how bad a system we've put in place.

Basically the House would pick, by state delegation, among the top 3 vote-getters in the Electoral College. So for example, they couldn't elect Doc (although that would be awesome, on many levels).

http://constitutioncenter.org/intera...amendment-xii/

[Doc]

I DO HEREBY DECREE THAT UNC-CH SHALL FORFEIT ALL BASKETBALL VICTORIES BETWEEN THE YEARS 1998 and 2015

[Darrell KSR]

I DO HEREBY DECREE THAT UNC-CH SHALL FORFEIT ALL BASKETBALL VICTORIES BETWEEN THE YEARS 1998 and 2015

I'll write you in now on my absentee ballot. Can I be first to vote for you?

[Doc]

I'm all about unification and I think we can all be unified in our hate of the Tarheel's academic fraud

[KSRBEvans]

Sabato's final call:

[CitizenBBN]

Like I've said before, if we could get San Francisco and New York City to leave the union we'd really be in business. It would flip those two states and we could start fixing things.

[dan_bgblue]

Like I've said before, if we could get San Francisco and New York City to leave the union we'd really be in business. It would flip those two states and we could start fixing things.

DC also needs to sink about 3 feet into the ocean and the capitol moved to St Louis. All though I do like St Louis and really hate to dump the DC crowd on them. Maybe it would be better if they just located the capitol in the middle of the Kansas Prairie surrounded by Native American reservations and illegal immigrant tent cities

[KeithKSR]

Sabato's final call:

I'm surprised Sabato made his call prior to early voting numbers coming out.