Sabato's Crystal Ball: Electoral Map

[CitizenBBN]

Throwing it to the House would be fun. In the House each state gets one vote, not by Representative. That would be a potential war as well.

[badrose]

FWIW, since 1972 the leader in every polling average 30 days after both conventions has gone on to win the popular vote:



https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilve...2932161537?p=v

I think Dukakis lost a lot of ground after everyone saw him riding in a tank with a helmet on.

[KSRBEvans]

The House has decided 2 elections: 1800 and 1824, and was part of a 3rd (1876).

http://history.house.gov/Institution...toral-College/

[CitizenBBN]

1800 wasn't all that interesting, though it did in part lead to the 12th Amendment.

But 1824 was a rabble rousing, fascinating election that then had all the intrigue of Henry Clay presiding as Speaker and having been the 4th largest vote getter for President as well. Now that was an interesting situation.

Of course Clay put his weight behind JQA who then made him Sec of State (at the time that was considered the best stepping stone to the Presidency), but Jackson got his revenge later.

[KeithKSR]

1800 wasn't all that interesting, though it did in part lead to the 12th Amendment.

But 1824 was a rabble rousing, fascinating election that then had all the intrigue of Henry Clay presiding as Speaker and having been the 4th largest vote getter for President as well. Now that was an interesting situation.

Of course Clay put his weight behind JQA who then made him Sec of State (at the time that was considered the best stepping stone to the Presidency), but Jackson got his revenge later.

I always found the 1800 election to be more interesting. It was a change election, and as mentioned, it led to a change in the way the President and Vice-President are elected.

[KSRBEvans]

Speaking of the 1800 election, here's an article by Mental Floss (a good follow, BTW):

12 Facts About The Election of 1800

Pretty interesting stuff, including some things I didn't know (like Pennsylvania was ready to send its militia to march on Washington!).

[CitizenBBN]

Speaking of the 1800 election, here's an article by Mental Floss (a good follow, BTW):

12 Facts About The Election of 1800

Pretty interesting stuff, including some thing I didn't know (like Pennsylvania was ready to send its militia to march on Washington!).

I'm tickled they mentioned Callender. That's a name I haven't thought about in a very long time. Studied him in a class I had on this period long long ago, I had a great prof who loved these kinds of side stories.

I love they mentioned him b/c we talk today about how bitter and divisive things are and how it's all about sound bytes and negative ads and then people long for the good old days of statesmanship.

I've studied a fair amount of US history, and I have yet to run across that era of compromise and statesmanship to which people refer. There has been some, but not a lot and even then there has always been bitter division and yes bitter underhanded attacks and negative campaigning. It's as old as democracy.

[KeithKSR]

Interesting stuff, Brian.

[KeithKSR]

I'm tickled they mentioned Callender. That's a name I haven't thought about in a very long time. Studied him in a class I had on this period long long ago, I had a great prof who loved these kinds of side stories.

I love they mentioned him b/c we talk today about how bitter and divisive things are and how it's all about sound bytes and negative ads and then people long for the good old days of statesmanship.

I've studied a fair amount of US history, and I have yet to run across that era of compromise and statesmanship to which people refer. There has been some, but not a lot and even then there has always been bitter division and yes bitter underhanded attacks and negative campaigning. It's as old as democracy.

That's just like the gridlock people complain about. That gridlock, the checks and balances system, is an intentional part of the Constitution in order to laws hard to pass.

There is also an erroneous will of the people philosophy. Just because an event occurs and 60% of the people suddenly make a bad idea popular it doesn't mean a law should be passed.

[MickintheHam]

Speaking of the 1800 election, here's an article by Mental Floss (a good follow, BTW):

12 Facts About The Election of 1800

Pretty interesting stuff, including some thing I didn't know (like Pennsylvania was ready to send its militia to march on Washington!).

Brian, you have good taste in what you read. Mental Floss was started by a kid right here in Hoover, Al. He was two years ahead of my son at HHS. It's been amazing to see what the magazine/website has become.

[dan_bgblue]

CBBN, I think much of the idea about statesmanship is derived from elected officials in Washington being able to enter negotiations with compromises on their minds as opposed to strict party line voting regardless of the consequences. At least that is how I view statesmanship. I have known 2 KY US Senators and have had the opportunity to discuss issues with them in their offices. They were both what I would call statesmen and understood that compromise and deal making was part of the process at the national level.

btw, neither of those gentlemen are in office today and have not been for many years.

[CitizenBBN]

Dan I think that's a good point, and there have no doubt been times when people have gotten together and hammered out deals, but overall most of our history is exactly this kind of feuding and party politics.

I sure agree with the sentiment we need more statesmanship, esp. just guys who could sit down at a bar in Washington after hours and talk things out, but those moments have and will continue to be rare.

Honestly the statesmanship that did exist if it was ever higher back then, was IMO due to the fact that the election process was vastly different. When state legislatures picked Senators they didn't have to raise huge sums for big media campaigns, and were thus less beholden to the national party. Things all over were much less directly done with the People, but that also allowed them to sit down in a room and hammer out deals with the usual greasing of the wheels with some pork barrel and log rolling and such.

Now the show is far more important now, mass marketing has overtaken political networking. That has positives, but also negatives.

[KeithKSR]

Dan I think that's a good point, and there have no doubt been times when people have gotten together and hammered out deals, but overall most of our history is exactly this kind of feuding and party politics.

I sure agree with the sentiment we need more statesmanship, esp. just guys who could sit down at a bar in Washington after hours and talk things out, but those moments have and will continue to be rare.

Honestly the statesmanship that did exist if it was ever higher back then, was IMO due to the fact that the election process was vastly different. When state legislatures picked Senators they didn't have to raise huge sums for big media campaigns, and were thus less beholden to the national party. Things all over were much less directly done with the People, but that also allowed them to sit down in a room and hammer out deals with the usual greasing of the wheels with some pork barrel and log rolling and such.

Now the show is far more important now, mass marketing has overtaken political networking. That has positives, but also negatives.

Many pieces of legislation have always been decided among party lines. Look at the issues that were decided before and after the Civil War, party line votes all the way.

[dan_bgblue]

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016...as-flawed.html

Wasn't Trump leading in several polls 30 days before the conventions, or did I just dream that?

[Darrell KSR]

I trust no polls just yet.

[CitizenBBN]

I trust no polls just yet.

The undecided is huge this year, 20+ points, and I don't care about national polls anyway. The only ones that matter are in battleground states.

Trump stunk it up this week, but it's not the first week he has and he's survived all the others. I saw that Gingrich and Guliani and others are going to stage an intervetion, and I sure hope they do, with the kids in the meeting. He listens to them.

All he has to do is stay on message and stop firing back at every piece of bait and he'll win this thing. I still doubt he can do it, just as I did months ago.

[KSRBEvans]

It's hard to wait, but as that 538.com graph shows, 30 days after the last convention (end of this month) historically is a better gauge of the final result.

Both candidates doing their best to throw this away--I don't think I've ever seen an election year like this.

[badrose]

Trump is an amateur politician. Someone close to him needs to reign him in a bit. Way too much BS coming out of his mouth. Needs to stay on point.

[KSRBEvans]

Hillary apparently is ready to skip the election and go right to planning her transition:

https://mobile.twitter.com/nationalj...0100332544?p=v

[CitizenBBN]

Barring Trump getting his mouth wired shut or more fun from Wikileaks (both of which are reasonably possible), she might as well. But if Trump can stay on message and talk about nothing but the economy and ISIS and Hillary's negatives, in that order, and Wikileaks can dump some more well timed stuff, then he can win.

[KeithKSR]

Barring Trump getting his mouth wired shut or more fun from Wikileaks (both of which are reasonably possible), she might as well. But if Trump can stay on message and talk about nothing but the economy and ISIS and Hillary's negatives, in that order, and Wikileaks can dump some more well timed stuff, then he can win.

IMO, Assange is holding the juiciest stuff to dump in an October surprise.

[Darrell KSR]

....and Wikileaks can dump some more well timed stuff....

You know that's coming. The sad thing is, there must be a plethora of material they could use for her. I'm not sure there's a limit.

[CitizenBBN]

You know that's coming. The sad thing is, there must be a plethora of material they could use for her. I'm not sure there's a limit.

Given that I'm sure the Russians, Chinese and about everyone else already has it, I hope it's all in the hands of Wikileaks as well b/c we need someone to expose the corruption and failings of our government.

That's why I could never get too upset with Snowden. This government is far too removed from the people, I can't be too upset about it being exposed for the corrupt influence peddling cesspool that we know it to be.

[KSRBEvans]

FWIW, since 1972 the leader in every polling average 30 days after both conventions has gone on to win the popular vote:



https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilve...2932161537?p=v

Today is the 30th day after the Democratic convention. If Trump wins, he'll be the first one since 1972 to be behind in the polling average 30 days after the last convention and win. The RCP average has him down 6.3 points:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5491.html

[badrose]

When Americans were sane...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html

[KeithKSR]

Today is the 30th day after the Democratic convention. If Trump wins, he'll be the first one since 1972 to be behind in the polling average 30 days after the last convention and win. The RCP average has him down 6.3 points:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5491.html

The average of recent polls is much closer, most are within the margin of error.

[StuBleedsBlue2]

The average of recent polls is much closer, most are within the margin of error.

False.

Clinton's poll of polls, according to RCP as of today, 8/29 gives her a 6.1% lead.

FiveThirtyEight.com Polls-Only also shows a 6/1% lead. It's Now-Cast shows a 5.7% lead.

Those are well beyond the margin of error.

As I've mentioned before, it's about the state polls. Hillary leads comfortably, in excess of 6% in states that give her 273 electoral votes. That's NOT including Florida, Ohio, N Carolina, Iowa and Nevada. The closest two states are Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, where she holds 8-9% leads in both states.

Trump will have to win all 5 and flip one of those. He's within the margin of error in each of those states, but still trailing.

[Doc]

Jerry Meyers will make his crystal ball prediction on November 9th.

[Darrell KSR]

Jerry Meyers will make his crystal ball prediction on November 9th.

[KeithKSR]

False.

Clinton's poll of polls, according to RCP as of today, 8/29 gives her a 6.1% lead.

FiveThirtyEight.com Polls-Only also shows a 6/1% lead. It's Now-Cast shows a 5.7% lead.

Those are well beyond the margin of error.

As I've mentioned before, it's about the state polls. Hillary leads comfortably, in excess of 6% in states that give her 273 electoral votes. That's NOT including Florida, Ohio, N Carolina, Iowa and Nevada. The closest two states are Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, where she holds 8-9% leads in both states.

Trump will have to win all 5 and flip one of those. He's within the margin of error in each of those states, but still trailing.

Do you understand the meaning of "recent?" RCP Poll at that time went back a few weeks.