How about an Electoral College Beat The Odds contest?

[KSRBEvans]

How about a little game picking the tossup states tomorrow?

We can go straight up with number of states picked correctly, or go by total number of electoral votes picked correctly. What say you?

I say we go with the states that are rated tossups by Real Clear Politics, which are

Ohio
Florida
Virginia
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Iowa
Colorado
Nevada

Tiebreaker: number of electoral votes President Obama gets.

[SalsaKat]

If we're doing number of states, can I TFP Ohio and DS another? If so, I'm in.

[KSRBEvans]

If we're doing number of states, can I TFP Ohio and DS another? If so, I'm in.

However the group wants to do it. How 'bout it, folks?

[Doc]

Romney takes them all but Ohio....

[Darrell KSR]

We need a weather forecast, state by state, too.

[badrose]

In Ohio, according to Rasmussen...

The president is viewed favorably by 50% and unfavorably by 49%. Thirty-seven percent (37%) hold a Very Favorable view of the incumbent, while 40% regard him Very Unfavorably.

Fifty-two percent (52%) share a favorable opinion of Romney, while 47% view him unfavorably. This includes 37% with a Very Favorable opinion and another 37% with a Very Unfavorable one.

Rasmussen still has them tied at 49%-49%.

Here are the election results from 2010 in Ohio:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/results/ohio Hint: It's overwhelmingly Republican.

Does anyone think things have changed that much there since then?

The smell test:

The crowds coming out to Obama rallys lately are in the 4 digit range. For Romney, a 5-digit range. Obama had Bruce Springsteen and Stevie Wonder to help draw his crowds.

[dan_bgblue]

We need a weather forecast, state by state, too.

http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors....php?element=T

This will take you to today's map. If you view it before midnight, then click the > twice to get the forecast for tomorrow.

[KSRBEvans]

OK, let's go by total number of states picked correctly--not electoral votes.

You can TFP 1 state but if so you must DS another one.

Tiebreaker is Obama's total of electoral votes.

I'll go with

Ohio--Obama
Florida--Romney
Virginia--Romney
New Hampshire--Romney
North Carolina--Romney
Michigan--Obama
Wisconsin--Romney
Pennsylvania--Romney
Iowa--Obama
Colorado--Romney
Nevada--Obama

Obama electoral votes: 247

[Darrell KSR]

Ohio--Obama 18
Florida--Romney 29
Virginia--Romney 13
New Hampshire--Obama 4
North Carolina--Romney 15
Michigan--Obama 16
Wisconsin--Obama 10
Pennsylvania--Obama 20
Iowa--Romney 6
Colorado--Romney 9
Nevada--Obama 6

Obama electoral votes: I'm afraid to count them up. Do I have to give a guess?

265

[badrose]

Ohio--Romney 18
Florida--Romney 29
Virginia--Romney 13
New Hampshire--Romney 4
North Carolina--Romney 15
Michigan--Obama 16
Wisconsin--Romney 10
Pennsylvania--Romney 20
Iowa--Romney 6
Colorada--Romney
Nevada--Obama 6

Obama Electoral votes: 239

[Darrell KSR]

Actually feeling better about Romney's chances when I counted up the votes state by state.

Man, there are a lot of close states.

[dan_bgblue]

Ohio--Obama
Florida--Romney
Virginia--Romney
New Hampshire--Romney
North Carolina--Romney
Michigan--Obama
Wisconsin--Romney
Pennsylvania--Romney
Iowa--Obama
Colorado--Obama
Nevada--Obama

Obama 243

[DanISSELisdaman]

Ohio--Obama
Florida--Romney
Virginia--Romney
New Hampshire-- Obama
North Carolina--Romney
Michigan-- Obama
Wisconsin--Romney
Pennsylvania--Obama
Iowa--Obama
Colorado --Romney
Nevada-- Obama

Obama 272

[CitizenBBN]

Man, there are a lot of close states.

Never seen the nation more divided. I'd think if we go back to the Nixon/JFK period it might be this split but I'm not sure as much gap between the two sides.

I have no idea. It's 270 to win right? As long as Obama is less than that I'm golden. I'll be surprised, but I sure hope.

[dan_bgblue]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv.../50states.html

[Darrell KSR]

Never seen the nation more divided. I'd think if we go back to the Nixon/JFK period it might be this split but I'm not sure as much gap between the two sides.

I have no idea. It's 270 to win right? As long as Obama is less than that I'm golden. I'll be surprised, but I sure hope.

Yep, 270.

I entered 265 as my entry. I think it's going to be very, very close. That probably means a landslide for one of them.

[SalsaKat]

Ohio -- Obama
Florida -- Romney
Virginia -- Romney
New Hampshire -- Obama
North Carolina -- Romney
Michigan -- Obama
Wisconsin -- Obama
Pennsylvania -- Obama
Iowa -- Obama
Colorado -- Romney
Nevada -- Obama

TB: 282 (ME, NH, VT, NY, MA, CT, RI, NJ, PA, DE, MD, DC, OH, MI, WI, IL, IA, MN, NM, NV, CA, OR, WA, NE-02)

However, full disclosure, I'm pretty much taking a stab that Obama gets Ohio based on a teeny-tiny polling lead. But that's meaningless. That state is going to decide this one, and it may get ugly. Maybe not 2000 ugly, but I won't be surprised to see this one drag out.

Seriously, OHIOANS are choosing our President this year. People that LIKE OHIO STATE. Let that sink in.