Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night's Weather Warning

[dan_bgblue]

Stay alert tomorrow.




SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CONUS ON
MONDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL-TILT UPPER TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO LOWER-MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY.

...MID-SOUTH/LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ON MONDAY
INCLUDING CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES...INCLUDING
A FEW POTENTIALLY STRONG...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND
LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY TO TN VALLEY. WHILE A HIGHER-END SLIGHT
RISK /ENHANCED SLIGHT EQUIVALENT/ WILL CURRENTLY BE
MAINTAINED...PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY WARRANT A MODERATE RISK
UPGRADE IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.

A SQUALL LINE WITH AT LEAST SOME EMBEDDED SEVERE POTENTIAL /DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADO/ IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN OK/ARKLATEX VICINITY. CONTRIBUTIONS TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR ASIDE...A PERSISTENTLY STRONG 45-60 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE A STEADY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRANSPORT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE AND AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ULTIMATELY
RESULT IN UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST VICINITY...WITH INCREASINGLY PREVALENT
LOWER/SOME MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BY MIDDAY.

INITIALLY...MUCH OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED
NEAR THE EARLY-DAY SQUALL LINE...WITH WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
INITIALLY TENDING TO BE LIMITED BY 1/ CAPPING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
AND 2/ ASCENT TENDING TO BE MAXIMIZED NEAR/BEHIND THE EFFECTIVE
FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD CHANGE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME DEVELOPING/DEEPENING
SEMI-DISCRETE WARM SECTOR CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. SUCH
A SCENARIO /SQUALL LINE-PRECEDING DEVELOPMENT/ COULD INITIALLY OCCUR
ACROSS NORTHEAST LA/FAR EASTERN AR INTO MUCH OF MS/WESTERN TN AND
EVENTUALLY AL BY EVENING COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...MLCAPE MAY APPROACH 1500 J/KG OVER A
PORTION OF THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE
FARTHER NORTH INTO PARTS OF MO/IL/INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR MID/UPPER WINDS TO BACK WITH TIME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND SIZABLE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF AN OVERALL
MIXED-MOVED OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOW ECHO AND SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND AND SOME TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AMID A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SRH ENVIRONMENT. PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY WARRANT A MODERATE RISK
UPGRADE IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS PENDING SUBSEQUENT EARLY-DAY SQUALL LINE
DETAILS...ALONG WITH A GREATER CONFIDENCE IN APPRECIABLE WARM SECTOR
DEVELOPMENT PRECEDING THE SQUALL LINE/ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW.

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT FROM THE GULF
COASTAL STATES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...BUT THE OVERALL RISK
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH NORTHWARD/EASTWARD EXTENT MONDAY
NIGHT.

..GUYER.. 10/12/2014

[jazyd]

storms just hit here in central Miss, lots of rain and wind, no bad weather here but I understand that maybe some tornadoes in other parts of the state.

[jazyd]

Front edge should be hitting Birmingham now

[Darrell KSR]

Mick, Darryl and I are all varying degrees of a little south of Birmingham. But it has been raining here for awhile, just not too hard. Hopefully it won't be bad.